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Thread: 2019 NBA totals

  1. #126

    Re: 2019 NBA totals

    Just betting the over in the game with the highest total daily is 70-48 for 59.3% this season

    Max(n:total@n:date and season=2019)[date and season=2019]=total and H



    Just betting the under with the lowest total daily is 52-67 for 56.3%


    Min(n:total@n:date and season=2019)[date and season=2019]=total and H


    If you bet every game in both those scenarios you would be 137-100 for 57.8% and +13.8K at 500 a bet
    Last edited by Thomas; 02-23-2020 at 02:35 PM.

     
     
  2. #127

    Re: 2019 NBA totals

    0-2 168-154




    cle/mia U221.5 L

    lac/mem O235 L

    ut/pho U224 L

    was/mil U243.5 L
    Last edited by Thomas; 02-25-2020 at 01:01 AM.

     
     
  3. #128

    Re: 2019 NBA totals

    0-4 168-158



    den/det U213 P

    ind/cha U209 W
    Last edited by Thomas; 02-26-2020 at 01:40 AM.

     
     
  4. #129

    Re: 2019 NBA totals

    Quote Originally Posted by Thomas View Post
    Just betting the over in the game with the highest total daily is 70-48 for 59.3% this season

    Max(n:total@n:date and season=2019)[date and season=2019]=total and H



    Just betting the under with the lowest total daily is 52-67 for 56.3%


    Min(n:total@n:date and season=2019)[date and season=2019]=total and H


    If you bet every game in both those scenarios you would be 137-100 for 57.8% and +13.8K at 500 a bet

    hey thomas that's a great query and result !! it's been doing terrific on the max end since the 2016 season and is about break even (with vig) with the lowest total under (2016)

    https://killersports.com/nba/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++


    433-325-21 wow !!


    how would you break it down by the season starting with 2016 ?? tried multiple times without success
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

     
     
  5. #130

    Re: 2019 NBA totals

    I got it.. not sure what puzzled me about doing it lol.. encouraging that it's done better this year so far than the previous 3 which went down about 1% each year


    https://killersports.com/nba/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
    Last edited by bleeker; 02-25-2020 at 08:19 AM.
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

     
     
  6. #131

    Re: 2019 NBA totals

    I added the 1 so we could see the total bleeker

    Max(n:total@n:date and season>=2016)[date and season>=2016]=total and season, 1 and H

    All good years actually bleeker maybe not at the money us regular guys bet but anyone that plays say 2K a game would be whooping er up over those results, 151K total and the worst year at 55% over 30k. It's a money printing machine the last 4 seasons with absolutely no work if you have the money originally, sadly the difference in this game. It's my belief that this has become profitable the last 4 years is scoring is up, obviously lol
    Last edited by Thomas; 02-26-2020 at 01:41 AM.

     
     
  7. #132

    Re: 2019 NBA totals

    1-0-1 169-158

    pho/lac O234 L
    Last edited by Thomas; 02-27-2020 at 12:02 AM.

     
     
  8. #133

    Re: 2019 NBA totals

    got to remember to use that ", 1"

    you want to see the whole record also when you do a breakdown

    if you narrow the total range to 227-235 you get it just past 60% whereas outside of this range it's around 55%..i think at minimum if you were playing this you'd be smart to have double on games in this range.. kelly criterion would agree with this


    https://killersports.com/nba/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

     
     
  9. #134

    Re: 2019 NBA totals

    Not a big fan of that kelly criterion thing bleeker but have no desire to talk about it, although I do understand it lol.


    Ok that's a nice addition for the totals and indeed has a much prettier percentage however if you used that over the years we used above you would have made around 60k less at our fictitious figure of 2k a bet. But I suppose using your KC example you could probably make up for that because your parameters increase your success rates within the trend. I only flat bet and like I said above have zero interest in that method, I've discussed it to death way back in the day and have no faith in it

     
     
  10. #135

    Re: 2019 NBA totals

    the main thing thomas is how well this has been doing over the years.. upping your bets playing more towards the middle of the totals range not necessary.. think I might lean that way but really a side issue..encouraging to me that it's still going strong after 3 complete seasons.. it's a great find and hopefully it'll continue for a while longer
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

     
     
  11. #136

    Re: 2019 NBA totals

    Doing it by day has some interesting results, for the same four years we used above


    m 66-40-4 (2.87, 62.3%)


    tu 55-49-4 (1.48, 52.9%)


    w 70-43-3 (3.85, 61.9%)


    th 71-39-1 (2.47, 64.5%)


    f 62-47-3 (0.37, 56.9%)


    sa 51-55-2 (0.09, 48.1%)


    su 58-53-4 (1.50, 52.3%)

    207-83 61% just playing Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, wow. Here's a link to look at just those days by year


    https://killersports.com/nba/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

    check out 2019's Thursdays bleeker, 15-4 o/u up to today
    Last edited by Thomas; 02-26-2020 at 11:16 PM.

     
     
  12. #137

    Re: 2019 NBA totals

    0-1 169-159


    okc/sac U220.5 W
    Last edited by Thomas; 02-28-2020 at 02:21 AM.

     
     
  13. #138

    Re: 2019 NBA totals

    Quote Originally Posted by Thomas View Post
    Doing it by day has some interesting results, for the same four years we used above


    m 66-40-4 (2.87, 62.3%)


    tu 55-49-4 (1.48, 52.9%)


    w 70-43-3 (3.85, 61.9%)


    th 71-39-1 (2.47, 64.5%)


    f 62-47-3 (0.37, 56.9%)


    sa 51-55-2 (0.09, 48.1%)


    su 58-53-4 (1.50, 52.3%)

    207-83 61% just playing Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, wow. Here's a link to look at just those days by year


    https://killersports.com/nba/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

    check out 2019's Thursdays bleeker, 15-4 o/u up to today

    that's a great find thomas !! if I were playing this I'd only be in on those 3 days
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

     
     
  14. #139

    Re: 2019 NBA totals

    I also like the idea of another filter in general as highest total isn't too deep an angle and lines will probably adjust to that at some point
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

     
     
  15. #140

    Re: 2019 NBA totals

    Quote Originally Posted by Thomas View Post
    Doing it by day has some interesting results, for the same four years we used above


    m 66-40-4 (2.87, 62.3%)


    tu 55-49-4 (1.48, 52.9%)


    w 70-43-3 (3.85, 61.9%)


    th 71-39-1 (2.47, 64.5%)


    f 62-47-3 (0.37, 56.9%)


    sa 51-55-2 (0.09, 48.1%)


    su 58-53-4 (1.50, 52.3%)

    207-83 61% just playing Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, wow. Here's a link to look at just those days by year


    https://killersports.com/nba/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

    check out 2019's Thursdays bleeker, 15-4 o/u up to today

    think that's supposed to be 207-122 ..63% (left out thursday's losses)
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

     
     
  16. #141

    Re: 2019 NBA totals

    Yep looks like I did bleeker but % is still good anyways right. Worth looking at ever day good extra info if nothing else

    1-0 170-159


    Nice 1/2 point win for my play last night, yay


    mil/okc U226.5 W

    mia/dal U228.5 L

    min/orl O233.5 W

    no/clev O235.5 L

    tor/cha O214.5 L
    Last edited by Thomas; 02-28-2020 at 11:41 PM.

     
     
  17. #142

    Re: 2019 NBA totals

    2-3 172-162


    cle/ind O215.5 W

    bos/hou U233 W

    mem/lal U228.5 W

    atl/por U240 L

    mia/brk U219.5 L
    Last edited by Thomas; 03-01-2020 at 01:25 AM.

     
     
  18. #143

    Re: 2019 NBA totals

    3-2 175-164

    sac/det U214.5 W

    min/dal U242.5 W
    Last edited by Thomas; 03-01-2020 at 10:11 PM.

     
     
  19. #144

    Re: 2019 NBA totals

    2-0 177-164




    atl/mem U240.5 W

    mia/mil U227.5 W
    Last edited by Thomas; 03-02-2020 at 11:34 PM.

     
     
  20. #145

    Re: 2019 NBA totals

    2-0 179-164


    no/min O246.5 W

    okc/lac O228.5 L
    Last edited by Thomas; 03-04-2020 at 02:53 AM.

     
     
  21. #146

    Re: 2019 NBA totals

    1-1 180-165



    mia/orl U218.5 L

    nyk/ut O220 L

    brk/mem O223 L

    det/okc U209.5 L

    por/was O244 L
    Last edited by Thomas; 03-05-2020 at 12:35 PM.

     
     
  22. #147

    Re: 2019 NBA totals

    0-5 180-170

    gs/tor O225.5 W
    Last edited by Thomas; 03-06-2020 at 01:29 AM.

     
     
  23. #148

    Re: 2019 NBA totals

    1-0 181-171

    nyk/okc O216.5 W

    brk/sa U226 L

    pho/por U233 L

    was/atl U240 W
    Last edited by Thomas; 03-07-2020 at 12:31 AM.

     
     
  24. #149

    Re: 2019 NBA totals

    2-2 183-173



    det/ut U211 L
    Last edited by Thomas; 03-07-2020 at 10:37 PM.

     
     
  25. #150

    Re: 2019 NBA totals

    0-1 183-174


    bos/okc O217.5 L

    dal/ind O218.5 W

    min/no U248 W

    was/mia O213 L
    Last edited by Thomas; 03-08-2020 at 11:44 PM.

     
     

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