Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

monday night **** ** gb/det

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • monday night **** ** gb/det

    5<=week <=8 and MNF and p:AW and HF and 38<=total <=55 and season >=2000


    monday night..
    week 5-8..
    home favorite..
    previous away win..
    total 38-55..
    2000


    14-1 (6.06)


    gb -3.5 //// // .75 units
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

  • #2
    Re: monday night **** ** gb/det

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: monday night **** ** gb/det

      Hope you're right.
      Money won is twice as nice as money earned
      Fast Eddie Felson

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: monday night **** ** gb/det

        Hey bleeker something I try and look at in the mine is simplified queries as I feel the busier they are the harder they are to believe (backfitting). I don't have a problem with your look above but I like to break them down a little more. For instance I don't see much of an advantage limiting this to specific weeks in this case 5-8 or the total range of 38-55 which covers probably 6 prime totals. So when I looked at yours I thought of this to get rid of some of that stuff and came up with this:

        week <=8 and MNF and p:AW and HF and season >=2010

        So now we have a 10 year look using the 1st half of the season, which makes more sense to me than 4 specific weeks, and dumping the total portion completely. This brings up a 12-0 su and 10-1-1 ats result and of course still comes up wit GB as a play.

        Just throwing out my thoughts, not trying to be a dick, on backfitting which is pretty easy to get into to see results that are more favorable. Best of luck my friend

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: monday night **** ** gb/det

          Originally posted by Thomas View Post
          Hey bleeker something I try and look at in the mine is simplified queries as I feel the busier they are the harder they are to believe (backfitting). I don't have a problem with your look above but I like to break them down a little more. For instance I don't see much of an advantage limiting this to specific weeks in this case 5-8 or the total range of 38-55 which covers probably 6 prime totals. So when I looked at yours I thought of this to get rid of some of that stuff and came up with this:

          week <=8 and MNF and p:AW and HF and season >=2010

          So now we have a 10 year look using the 1st half of the season, which makes more sense to me than 4 specific weeks, and dumping the total portion completely. This brings up a 12-0 su and 10-1-1 ats result and of course still comes up wit GB as a play.

          Just throwing out my thoughts, not trying to be a dick, on backfitting which is pretty easy to get into to see results that are more favorable. Best of luck my friend

          I agree with you on simplifying the queries, the less parameters, the more I like them.
          "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: monday night **** ** gb/det

            Originally posted by Thomas View Post
            Hey bleeker something I try and look at in the mine is simplified queries as I feel the busier they are the harder they are to believe (backfitting). I don't have a problem with your look above but I like to break them down a little more. For instance I don't see much of an advantage limiting this to specific weeks in this case 5-8 or the total range of 38-55 which covers probably 6 prime totals. So when I looked at yours I thought of this to get rid of some of that stuff and came up with this:

            week <=8 and MNF and p:AW and HF and season >=2010

            So now we have a 10 year look using the 1st half of the season, which makes more sense to me than 4 specific weeks, and dumping the total portion completely. This brings up a 12-0 su and 10-1-1 ats result and of course still comes up wit GB as a play.

            Just throwing out my thoughts, not trying to be a dick, on backfitting which is pretty easy to get into to see results that are more favorable. Best of luck my friend
            not at all thomas but feel quite the opposite way.. I know that's the knock on what I do and respect that point of view.. feel free to agree or be critical as I respect your opinion..I personally don't think the weeks parameter is bad because of the flow of the season.. teams starting to find a rhythm and still relatively fresh.. as far as the total range it's a big one which I think is fair as oddball totals (high or low) can be eliminated
            _______________________________________________
            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: monday night **** ** gb/det

              Yes bleeker however you feel is the right thing especially if it works for you and I do see your thoughts there on the weeks anyways. I usually don't like to do any capping till 4 weeks are in the books.

              Well were on the subject of queries something some seem to live by is having large sample numbers that land in the 55-58 % range. Don't believe in them at all and my friend at the database and myself, that we spoke of recently, really like to dig into same season queries that are on streaks especially in the NBA, MLB and NHL. We try and identify streaks early like say 4 or 5 game winning streaks get on them and ride them out. IMO if you have say a 6 or 700 game sample hitting 57%+, which is big time good, do you know how many streaks are involved in there and if you get on this trend and it's on a 10 game losing streak, which wouldn't be unusual, your fucked. They're great if you get on them from some where near the beginning but where is that exactly. So we've found identifying streaks in current situations is the place to be on or against. We don't feel that a 700 game trend at 57% offers you a 57% shot the next game as it could be the beginning of a bad streak cause they're a lot losses in that 43% area. It's a slippery slope LOL and people have different opinions on both sides of those thoughts

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: monday night **** ** gb/det

                I understand the value of large samples in the hit range you spoke about.. don't think I've ever found something that but then again haven't really looked.. sure not easy to come by that which is how it should be.. get that it's something you hope to take advantage of over time rather than think you've got a 57% chance to hit your next play.. but don't you feel landing on something that's hit 4 or 5 in a row from the same season is a situation that might just be on a short term good roll rather than a long term winning method?? obviously you don't lol

                no rush to respond right away if you're busy
                _______________________________________________
                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: monday night **** ** gb/det

                  Yeah bleeker I know what you mean but al of of theses things go 10 or more games, we're just looking to make money on them so if it wins 2 out of three or 3 out of 4 even you take your profit and move on. I've seen some go 15 games and longer but some you get your ticket thrown away after 1. Thing is if you get 6 or more in a row you can play by the loss and still have house money. We had one in bases go 24 games once, I got on at 10 but it lost 3 in a row after that, I took 2 loses and bowed out but I was up 12 games when the dust cleared

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: monday night **** ** gb/det

                    Originally posted by Thomas View Post
                    Yeah bleeker I know what you mean but al of of theses things go 10 or more games, we're just looking to make money on them so if it wins 2 out of three or 3 out of 4 even you take your profit and move on. I've seen some go 15 games and longer but some you get your ticket thrown away after 1. Thing is if you get 6 or more in a row you can play by the loss and still have house money. We had one in bases go 24 games once, I got on at 10 but it lost 3 in a row after that, I took 2 loses and bowed out but I was up 12 games when the dust cleared

                    I'm a little confused about this?? not even sure what to ask lol
                    _______________________________________________
                    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: monday night **** ** gb/det

                      lol seems a little confusing I'm just saying we look for in season runs and when we see one we get on it till it loses and then look for another one. When you beat the database everyday with different queries using mostly common parameters you find these kind of things and you jump on them. It's not the only thing I do but I do like finding these here and there

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: monday night **** ** gb/det

                        For instance bleeker one I left here recently:

                        season = 2019 and AD and conference = AFC and o:conference = AFC


                        it's on a 17-3 run right now and we've been on it for 3 weeks now and it's 9-2 in that time and 3-1 last week with 3 more plays this coming week. I play them till it becomes unprofitable which is what one has to decide for himself.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: monday night **** ** gb/det

                          no what I meant thomas was the numbers I highlighted in your first example.. go 24 games once, got on at 10, but it lost lost 3 in a row after that,took 2 losses and bowed out but I was up 12 games.. I get the concept

                          go 24 games once means it won 24 in a row? if you got on at 10 how could it lose 3 in a row because it won 24 in a row? something i'm missing here but can't figure it out


                          or do you mean jumping on different systems you won 24 in a row?
                          _______________________________________________
                          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: monday night **** ** gb/det

                            Oh I see what your asking. When this one was 10-0 I started betting it and won the next 14 games going forward then it lost 3 games in a row after that run ended.

                            Been looking at some of your database stuff bleeker, good work. If I can help in any way don't hesitate to ask, I'd be more than happy to talk mine stuff with you.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: monday night **** ** gb/det

                              Originally posted by Thomas View Post
                              Oh I see what your asking. When this one was 10-0 I started betting it and won the next 14 games going forward then it lost 3 games in a row after that run ended.

                              Been looking at some of your database stuff bleeker, good work. If I can help in any way don't hesitate to ask, I'd be more than happy to talk mine stuff with you.
                              ok thomas...I get it now and appreciate the compliment and your offer to answer questions if I have them.. struggle with the more advanced stuff but also feel it doesn't have to be fancy to be good..think you'd agree with that but still would be nice to know..thanks again
                              _______________________________________________
                              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X