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  • week 6

    Got this in the mail from vsin kinda of interesting



    This line opened with the Patriots listed as big 15.5-point home
    favorites-- the highest spread for a Thursday Night game since it began
    in 2006. Three-out-of-four bets are laying the spread with the Pats.
    This heavy support has pushed the line up to 17. The Giants have value
    as a contrarian dog getting big points in a heavily bet game. But
    Thursday Night home favorites are 70-47 ATS (59.8%, +20.08 units won)
    since 2003 according to Bet Labs Sports. Also, no one's ever gotten rich
    betting against the Belichick and Brady. The combo has gone an absurd
    144-90 ATS (61.5%, +50.11 units won) since 2003. It's also been
    profitable to back huge Thursday Night favorites -13 or more. They're
    7-1 ATS since 2003.



    Sharps prefer the total in this game. They are pounding the Under. It
    opened at 44.5 and has been bet down to 41 or even 40.5. We're seeing
    some awful weather at Gillette Stadium. The forecast calls for nearly 20
    mph winds, low 50s and rain. When the wind blows at 10 mph or more the
    under has cashed at a 55.8% clip (+66.21 units) since 2003. Another edge
    to the Under: Brad Allen is the lead official. The Under has hit at a
    56.3% rate with Allen as the head ref since 2003. Allen also favors home
    teams (55.8% ATS).

    Checked those trends on the spread and they're right:



    day=Thursday and line <=-13 https://tinyurl.com/y2jttfcr

    day=Thursday and HF and season>2003 https://tinyurl.com/y2jlg9yy




    bleeker also referred to the Thursday big dog in his thread

  • #2
    Re: week 6

    Nice info, good luck tonite
    Money won is twice as nice as money earned
    Fast Eddie Felson

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    • #3
      Re: week 6

      Thanks cap'n here's some more on the weather


      This is game weather from NBC and a prediction of an under, so that officially makes everyone and their dog on that play


      It's fall in New England, and the weather conditions for Thursday night's game between the Patriots and New York Giants at Gillette Stadium will be less than ideal.

      The latest NBC Boston forecast for the Week 6 matchup calls for cloudy skies with a 90 percent chance of rain, including rainfall that might reach one quarter of an inch. Winds are expected to blow from from the north-northeast at 10 to 20 mph, with occasional wind gusts over 25 mph. The temperature should be in the low 50s most of the night in Foxboro.

      Here are three takeaways from this weather forecast.

      1. The Patriots are massive betting favorites versus the Giants, with the defending Super Bowl champions favored by as many as 17 points at some sportsbooks, and that number could rise before kickoffs. One of the arguments for betting against the Patriots (via the spread) is the sloppy weather conditions will make it tough for these offenses to score points.

      The Giants already were likely to have trouble scoring given the astounding amount of injuries to their top offensive players. New York's top two running backs (Saquon Barkley and Wayne Gallman), its top wide receiver (Sterling Shepard) and starting tight end (Evan Engram) all have been ruled out for Thursday because of injuries. This scenario leaves rookie quarterback Daniel Jones in a pretty tough spot with so few of his most talented offensive weapons available.

      The best bet tonight might be taking the under on the Giants team total.

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      • #4
        Re: week 6

        God this is just begging a guy to take the Pats and Under lol. Seen this movie from both sides of the theater for sure, it's never easy is it

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        • #5
          Re: week 6

          Really a tough game to get a handle on with the too obvious plays staring you in the face

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          • #6
            Re: week 6

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            • #7
              Re: week 6

              shitty start with Thursday ofer and missed the morning games due to turkey hangover (Thanksgiving here) and now zero prep for these picks but onward I go, LOL


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              • #8
                Re: week 6

                Gettin fukin killed this season, not putting in the time required to be successful, I think they call that lazy capping. You may want to consider me a good fade at this point as I'm 0-6 this week so far. Let the misery continue...


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                • #9
                  Re: week 6

                  This is probably the closest game on paper I've seen in quite awhile. One of my favorite methods to get an idea on a game is a formula involving off and def pp/100 compared to total yds on off and def. I do a season to date and 4 game rolling avg. Anyways it came up with this:



                  STD

                  GB 23.95

                  Detroit 21.35


                  4 game rolling

                  GB 24.35

                  Detroit 24.35



                  1st time I can remember a tie coming from this ever on the 4 game avg although the STD does say 24-21 GB. As usual it will pretty closely tell you what the line and total will be on this game. I use the the 4 game stats but like to see how they compare to the STD. So this tells me 24-24 and a total of 48 which leads me to believe Detroit and the points are the pick here. I want to take GB cause in my puny public mind I think they get it done at home tonight. Gonna chew on this a little more and decide in a bit

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                  • #10
                    Re: week 6

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