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Thread: week 5

  1. #1

    week 5

    Denver 6
    Baltimore -3 -113
    Cleveland 4.5
    Indy 10.5 -105
    Carolina -3

  2. #2
    Senior Member

    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    The Woodlands, TX

    Re: week 5

  3. #3

    Re: week 5

    Money won is twice as nice as money earned
    Fast Eddie Felson

  4. #4

    Re: week 5

    Waited too long to bet on some of these but sticking with them

  5. #5

    Re: week 5

    I added TB above to my Sunday card which lost and waiting to bet Cleveland once the line settles in, here's something on Mondays game I kinda like:

    Of some interest but limited data, teams after the bye playing at home are 9-20-3 ats the last two years and 36-49-4 ( tp:week+2=t:week and H and season>=2014 and season, 1) the last 5 years if you take out year 2016 (an anomaly maybe) which went 14-9-1 you have a nice record of 22-40-3 ( tp:week+2=t:week and H and season>=2014 and season!=2016 and season, 1).
    Play against SF and on Cleveland +4.5 week 5

    It's my opinion that things are changing in this situation due to home field meaning less and less and I give it very little thought anymore.These away teams are flying in on private jets or 1st class and staying in 5 star hotels has all but wiped out the old notion of a rough road trip imo. Might be willing to give the home team bias a little consideration but other than that there is no more home team advantage

    Also if we sprinkle in the prime time games only: tp:week + 2 = t:week and H and season >= 2014 and 1 and (SNF = 1 or day = Monday or day = Thursday) we get a nice 3-12 ats the last 5 yrs. Make it the last 3 years: tp:week + 2 = t:week and H and season >= 2016 and 1 and (SNF = 1 or day = Monday or day = Thursday) it improves to 1-8 ats

    Small data set but I believe all historic trends go through streaks and figuring that out would probably be the goose and golden egg kind of find. Just some food for thought for any database miners out there.

    Also since '89 home teams in prime time are a cash burning 43% @ 34-45-2
    Last edited by Thomas; 10-07-2019 at 01:13 AM.

  6. #6

    Re: week 5

    Also and I'm not trying to convince myself rather just putting my thoughts out there. Cleveland is 2-0 suats away this year and 0-2 suats at home. SF who are 3-0 su and 2-1 ats with their only non cover coming at home

  7. #7

    Re: week 5

    Here's great counterpoint to my thoughts from the playbook

    Here's the writeup from PlayBook.

    A must-see Monday night matchup this week pairs the upstart and
    undefeated Forty Niners against the suddenly revitalized Browns. The
    only thing holding Frisco back tonight might be it’s putrid 0-8 SUATS
    record in games with rest. That’s because Marc’s ‘Let’s Spend The Night
    Together’ BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW article from the 2010 BLACK BOOK
    calls out the fact that undefeated NFL home teams are murder on Monday
    nights, going 25-5 SU and 23-7 ATS in non-division games. In addition,
    the Niners are 40-16 SU and 41-14-1 ATS on Monday nights, including
    20-4 SU and 20-3-1 ATS with a win percentage of .727 or greater. Gulp.
    Meanwhile, the Browns enter 2-0 in their first two away games for the
    first time since 1994 while having held their last two foes (Ravens and
    Rams) to season-low yardage this year. They’re also 4-0 ATS in games
    after scoring 40-plus points. The kill stat for Cleveland, though, is this:
    the Browns have played 38 back-to-back road games since 2003. They
    failed to win both games on every occasion. The last pair of consecutive
    away wins they own happened in 2002 when they won at Cincinnati and
    then again at New Orleans

  8. #8

    Re: week 5

    Not sure what to think about this although Cleveland has been a bottom dweller team all those years they speak of in the playbook. The article also fails to point out that although they went 0-6 since 2003 on the back to back scenario they did go 2-3-1 ats, none that recent however. Maybe a better fit for betting may be the total where they went 1-5 in that sample and with both teams boasting a pretty good D perhaps the under is the play we should be looking at. If you've been watching you'll also know that prime time games have went 4-11 o/u this year. The more I look at this game the more I think we're gonna see a lot of rushing plays and a low score.

  9. #9

    Re: week 5

    Decided finally lol. Hoping for a split here at least

  10. #10
    Senior Member

    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    The Woodlands, TX

    Re: week 5

  11. #11

    Re: week 5

    One more quick thing SF 1-12-2 ats as a home fav since '14

    team=Fortyniners and HF and season>=2014

  12. #12

    Re: week 5

    Good Lord this is ugly, try and stop some of the bleeding, AGT 47.5

  13. #13

    Re: week 5

    Critical error buying out of my total, damn. Should have left things alone



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