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  • divisional round early thoughts

    will put up some early systems without committing.. seen a few that were close but didn't quite cut the mustard.. only one for now. will put final plays in separate thread

    divisional round..
    previous wildcard game..
    previous game home..
    previous artificial surface.
    margin <=3

    2-0 o/u (13.75)

    both played on grass in divisionals..
    both double digit margins so balanced..
    within range line and total..

    not enough to be a frontline play for obvious reasons but I think a positive.. could wind up going the other way if i find something i really like

    lar /dal over
    Last edited by bleeker; 01-08-2019, 02:42 PM.
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

  • #2
    Re: divisional round early thoughts

    divisional round..
    home ..
    opp last reg season game div..
    opp previous home..
    total 42-53..
    dog >=3

    11-1 o/u (11.79)

    lar/dal over
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: divisional round early thoughts

      divisional round...
      home..
      grass..
      previous division game..
      previous home..
      previous win >=11..
      total 38-53..
      2004



      all double digit overs..negative is total 4 points highest of other 5

      5-0 o/u (22.30)


      lar/dal over


      another note..the home team is averaging as many
      points in the 1st half as they are projected to score in the whole game based on avg line and total
      Last edited by bleeker; 01-09-2019, 03:21 PM.
      _______________________________________________
      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: divisional round early thoughts

        will not be playing kc/indy because of the high total but almost certainly will be on lar/dal over..will still start another thread
        _______________________________________________
        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: divisional round early thoughts

          another note post 3
          _______________________________________________
          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: divisional round early thoughts

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: divisional round early thoughts

              divisional round ..
              away team >=1 win than home team..
              dog..
              outdoor venue..
              total <=51


              18.5/18/31/20.5

              4-0 o/u (22.00)

              ne/lac over
              Last edited by bleeker; 01-10-2019, 03:52 PM.
              _______________________________________________
              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: divisional round early thoughts

                divisional round..
                ne (team trend)
                home..
                favorite <=10..
                2008

                smallest favorite they've been in this sample which I consider a negative.. good subset with the total.. solid secondary system



                5-0 o/u (-12.00)


                ne/lac over
                Last edited by bleeker; 01-10-2019, 05:42 PM.
                _______________________________________________
                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: divisional round early thoughts

                  divisional round..
                  previous wildcard game..
                  home previous on artificial surface..
                  artificial today..
                  dog 5-10..
                  total >=48


                  7-0 o/u (11.21)

                  without limit on the dog goes to 10-0 but margins get slimmer..definite positive though

                  no/pha over 51
                  Last edited by bleeker; 01-12-2019, 02:13 PM.
                  _______________________________________________
                  ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: divisional round early thoughts

                    divisional round..
                    home..
                    previous opponent points =3 (exactly, not 0)
                    total <50


                    i know, I know - - - can hear it's just a fluke already lol... but i'll add it the others


                    3-0 o/u (23.17)


                    ne/lac over
                    _______________________________________________
                    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                    Comment

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