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Thread: army/ navy

  1. #1

    Lightbulb army/ navy

    last 12..

    0-12 o/u (-14.96)

    only thing I didn't like about this is army has never been more than a 2 pt favorite in this period..so I did another query

    army ..
    >= 4 wins more than navy..

    they didn't have totals in the database back this far but here are the scores and lines

    1985 army -7 ... 7-17
    1986 army -11... 20-15
    1989 army -13 ... 17-19
    1991 army -9.5 ... 3-24

    pretty safe to say that's 4 unders although guessing totals may have been lower in general back then

    0-4 (-17.12) also 4 big navy covers

    so gonna stay with the under


    under 40 /// .38 units
    navy +7 /// .38 units
    Last edited by bleeker; 12-04-2018 at 12:18 AM.
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football are avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention

     
     
  2. #2
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    Re: army/ navy


     
     
  3. #3

    Re: army/ navy

    I wonder if the results of the last 12 years going under is why the total is so low this year ? I'm personally going to pass on the total, but like Navy since the "game of the year"(select games have lines out before the season starts) line was Navy -7 and now I'm getting 7. I don't feel these teams are that much different than expectations to justify a 14 point move. Army still has a bowl game to play..THIS is Navy's bowl game.

     
     
  4. #4

    Re: army/ navy

    Quote Originally Posted by Winningpix View Post
    I wonder if the results of the last 12 years going under is why the total is so low this year ? I'm personally going to pass on the total, but like Navy since the "game of the year"(select games have lines out before the season starts) line was Navy -7 and now I'm getting 7. I don't feel these teams are that much different than expectations to justify a 14 point move. Army still has a bowl game to play..THIS is Navy's bowl game.
    even though I played the under I do think it's one of those blatantly obvious stats that lots of people are probably aware of ..army being a relatively large favorite is a negative also as it's out of the range of the sample.. historically with the results when army was a big favorite in the way distant past showed significantly low scoring games which made me play the under..overall though I think you can definitely poke holes in the case to play the under based on what I look for..sure the number being so low has to do with recent results


    even though army has a bowl game can't see them being less motivated for this..just like that in these situations in the distant past navy has come up big and covered by huge margins
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football are avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention

     
     

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