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NFL Network: NFL GameDay Pick'Em

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  • NFL Network: NFL GameDay Pick'Em

    OK, this is going to sound goofy. And sample size is still tiny and historical data unavailable. A couple weeks ago I started watching a show on NFL Network called NFL GameDay Pick'Em. Four "experts," none of whom I'm familiar with, pick all the games on the week's NFL card straight up. Two of the four are women. They're both pretty cute and football literate.

    My initial thought was that this might be a good contrary indicator, much as the MNF pregame show picks have long been such a good contrary indicator. So I wrote down all the games where they had unanimous opinion. Maybe it's a fluke (it probably is), but those unanimous picks last week went 5-0 ATS, and this week they were 6-1 ATS, with NE tonight being unanimous too. Now, since they are picking straight up and I'm measuring ATS, they're much more likely to be unanimous on favorites. Such has been the case, with all but two of the unanimous picks each week being favorites.

    I'm not advising putting real money on these yahoos, even with an 11-1 two week ATS record. I'll track them here for a few weeks until the statistical probabilities come to their senses by reverting to the mean. Or maybe they'll collectively become the latest handicapping phenoms. At least the entertainment value is good. The show runs on Friday afternoon and is repeated numerous times on Saturday.

  • #2
    Re: NFL Network: NFL GameDay Pick'Em

    Make that 7-1 ATS in the 2nd week of tracking, with NE covering Monday night. Important to note that this was the worst week of the football season so far in Vegas, which most often happens when a lot of favorites are covering.

    I'll post next week's prognosis on Friday.
    Last edited by Rudy; 10-30-2018, 12:52 PM.

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    • #3
      Re: NFL Network: NFL GameDay Pick'Em

      The NFL GameDay Pick'Em panel changed a little this week, with Terrell Davis replacing one of the male experts. So this test will never pass any purity standards. This week the panel's unanimous selections were all favorites: CHI, CAR, KC, MIN, and NE. Can they keep up their sizzling ATS record?

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      • #4
        Re: NFL Network: NFL GameDay Pick'Em

        This correlates to Macs PDM thread.
        Twitter @winningpix1
        Last Season NFL 96-71-7 +$3750

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        • #5
          Re: NFL Network: NFL GameDay Pick'Em

          Inexplicably, the unanimous selections went 5-0 ATS again this week. That makes it 17-1 in the three weeks we've tracked it. Now well beyond the likelihood of statistical randomness. Is it possible that medium/large favorites are generally just plain undervalued this year? That flies in the face of longer-term history in the NFL, but things change. Maybe coaches are getting better at exploiting the vulnerabilities of the lesser teams and the rules shifts favoring offense are having an accelerant effect.

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          • #6
            Re: NFL Network: NFL GameDay Pick'Em

            Originally posted by Rudy View Post
            Inexplicably, the unanimous selections went 5-0 ATS again this week. That makes it 17-1 in the three weeks we've tracked it. Now well beyond the likelihood of statistical randomness. Is it possible that medium/large favorites are generally just plain undervalued this year? That flies in the face of longer-term history in the NFL, but things change. Maybe coaches are getting better at exploiting the vulnerabilities of the lesser teams and the rules shifts favoring offense are having an accelerant effect.
            2018 ..>=10 pt favs 6-1
            2016-18 .. >=10 pt favorites 35-17
            2014-15 .. >=10 pt favs 24-18
            Last edited by bleeker; 11-05-2018, 10:32 AM.
            _______________________________________________
            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

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            • #7
              Re: NFL Network: NFL GameDay Pick'Em

              Interesting data, bleeker, and supports the thesis that coaches are getting better at exploiting the bad teams. In this situation, the favorites in question are typically under 10 points. This week, for example, only CHI was as high as a 10-point favorite. Do you have data on favorites of, say, greater than three and less than 10? And perhaps how the deeper history has evolved on both types of medium/large favorites. Thanks.

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              • #8
                Re: NFL Network: NFL GameDay Pick'Em

                Originally posted by Rudy View Post
                Interesting data, bleeker, and supports the thesis that coaches are getting better at exploiting the bad teams. In this situation, the favorites in question are typically under 10 points. This week, for example, only CHI was as high as a 10-point favorite. Do you have data on favorites of, say, greater than three and less than 10? And perhaps how the deeper history has evolved on both types of medium/large favorites. Thanks.

                the only thing that sticks out is what I showed.. the last 5 years on big favorites (>=10)..maybe the elite qb's draw quicker flags for roughing the passer than the avg ones with the new rule changes ...just a guess
                _______________________________________________
                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

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                • #9
                  Re: NFL Network: NFL GameDay Pick'Em

                  All favorites again for the panel, eight of them this time: NYJ, ATL, NO, TB, GB, LAC, LAR, PHL. They didn't even bother with the KC game so we can't count it, and notably didn't go for NE or CHI, both fairly big favs.

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                  • #10
                    Re: NFL Network: NFL GameDay Pick'Em

                    OK, they finally fell to earth this week, going 3-5, making it 20-6 since we started watching. Given that it's clearly not going to be a contrary indicator and it would be ludicrous to expect that early huge run to continue, we're not going to keep posting on it. Maybe every now and again if something unexpected pops up, but no more regular tracking.

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