OK, this is going to sound goofy. And sample size is still tiny and historical data unavailable. A couple weeks ago I started watching a show on NFL Network called NFL GameDay Pick'Em. Four "experts," none of whom I'm familiar with, pick all the games on the week's NFL card straight up. Two of the four are women. They're both pretty cute and football literate.
My initial thought was that this might be a good contrary indicator, much as the MNF pregame show picks have long been such a good contrary indicator. So I wrote down all the games where they had unanimous opinion. Maybe it's a fluke (it probably is), but those unanimous picks last week went 5-0 ATS, and this week they were 6-1 ATS, with NE tonight being unanimous too. Now, since they are picking straight up and I'm measuring ATS, they're much more likely to be unanimous on favorites. Such has been the case, with all but two of the unanimous picks each week being favorites.
I'm not advising putting real money on these yahoos, even with an 11-1 two week ATS record. I'll track them here for a few weeks until the statistical probabilities come to their senses by reverting to the mean. Or maybe they'll collectively become the latest handicapping phenoms. At least the entertainment value is good. The show runs on Friday afternoon and is repeated numerous times on Saturday.
My initial thought was that this might be a good contrary indicator, much as the MNF pregame show picks have long been such a good contrary indicator. So I wrote down all the games where they had unanimous opinion. Maybe it's a fluke (it probably is), but those unanimous picks last week went 5-0 ATS, and this week they were 6-1 ATS, with NE tonight being unanimous too. Now, since they are picking straight up and I'm measuring ATS, they're much more likely to be unanimous on favorites. Such has been the case, with all but two of the unanimous picks each week being favorites.
I'm not advising putting real money on these yahoos, even with an 11-1 two week ATS record. I'll track them here for a few weeks until the statistical probabilities come to their senses by reverting to the mean. Or maybe they'll collectively become the latest handicapping phenoms. At least the entertainment value is good. The show runs on Friday afternoon and is repeated numerous times on Saturday.
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