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  • belmont stakes 2018

    figure I'd start a new thread for my belmont selection..
    got a chance to look at the PP's without knowing the post of course.. don't think that'd change my mind anyway in this race no matter where "free drop billy" lands

    stellar 2yo campaign prior to the breeders cup juvenile..
    not sure what happened there and it might be that he was just a little tired from the 4 big races he ran prior.. these included first out maiden win at churchill//race 2 -2nd
    by a length with a tough trip in the sanford at saratoga/3rd race was a neck loss in the G1 hopefull where he was closing while 5 wide in the upper stretch and the chart callers comment was "good energy"// 4th start was a win in the grade 1 keeneland futurity at 8.5f..by far the most accomplished juvenile record in this race and to me that's not unimportant.. like the early seasoning even at this stage of the campaign

    first race as a 3yo a 2nd in the holy bull at gulfstream and that is fine to me.. he was 3rd in the gotham next with a very wide trip but I like his running line related to running in the belmont.. very even race all the way around as he passed 4 horses and gradually dropped back about 3 lengths over the course of the race.. I find horses who do this often like to go further so a positive for me.. ran 4th in the blue grass and was placed 3rd via disqualification of sporting chance who bore out beyond badly.. looked like he had some horse in the stretch but no way was he going to win that one.. in the derby broke from the 2 post which isn't ideal and with the condition of that track I'm just tossing that one

    now he gets 5 weeks rest and I really think he's up to a big race.. 2 blazing fast workouts at churchill (47.3 b 1/51)
    (59.3 b 2/25) say to me he's doing well.. dale romans definitely one of the better trainers in the country so he's in good hands in that respect.. he's by union rags out of a stakes winning giant's causeway mare which is above average distance pedigree..

    justify is an automatic bet against for me for obvious reasons.. a concrete stat against him is since 2000 the belmont winner has come from the derby or preakness winner 4 times in 36 attempts and two of those of course were american pharoah.. I also don't like that he won both of the 1st 2 legs on sloppy tracks.. I feel the surface (big sandy) and distance are enough of a challenge without having to deal with a new track condition (hopefully) that you didn't face in the first 2 legs.. maybe that's being a little picky but all in all like the package your getting here
    Last edited by bleeker; 06-04-2018, 05:14 PM.
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

  • #2
    Re: belmont stakes 2018

    Good info bleeker. Probably be the longest shot on the board ! First time i went to Belmont i couldnt believe the size of the track! It really is big sandy !! Hopefully it will be a fast track

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: belmont stakes 2018

      Originally posted by Jim13 View Post
      Good info bleeker. Probably be the longest shot on the board ! First time i went to Belmont i couldnt believe the size of the track! It really is big sandy !! Hopefully it will be a fast track
      thanks.. yes it's a big track that's for sure.. no other 1.5 mile dirt oval in this country and maybe anywhere.. I didn't even realize his odds (50-1) when I did the writeup.. the average win price in the belmont since 2000 is $32.60 so good time to take a swing.. there were a lot of triple crown failures between affirmed and american pharoah so you never know

      the key will be if anybody can put pressure on him early and the only horse on paper who looks to have the capability of doing that is noble Indy.. justify rolling on an easy lead with no pace pressure probably results in a 2nd triple crown winner in 4 years
      _______________________________________________
      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: belmont stakes 2018

        wow a horse going for the triple crown but little interest in this thread lol.. oh well still early
        _______________________________________________
        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: belmont stakes 2018

          Yeah lets hope justify gets into a hot pace. If so free drop billy will have a good shot he should be closing and hopefully rolling in the stretch ! It may be another wet track saturday ? If so I think justify may be tough to beat. Im am suprised the post with the service plays havent been posted yet? The 1 thats bets 300 on all the favorites each race lol !

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: belmont stakes 2018

            Originally posted by Jim13 View Post
            Yeah lets hope justify gets into a hot pace. If so free drop billy will have a good shot he should be closing and hopefully rolling in the stretch ! It may be another wet track saturday ? If so I think justify may be tough to beat. Im am suprised the post with the service plays havent been posted yet? The 1 thats bets 300 on all the favorites each race lol !

            i hope it's not sloppy again geez but there's a decent chance it will be..a few other things of interest

            mike repole is part owner of noble indy with china horse club who owns justify.. think that's a bit of a difficult situation with indy being the likely other early speed lol

            I think free drop billy has speed if he wants to use it and have a hunch he'll be closer than it looks in the form..he was able to stay within 3 lengths in the sprint stakes at saratoga last year and was fairly close to the pace in the wood memorial which had very fast pace ratings.. he's had two really quick works leading up to this.. he is posted outside of justify and possibly could press him or lay a little off if noble indy goes with justify


            justify ran the slowest beyer speed figure since they've been recording them in the racing publications in the preakness..this goes back to 1991

            of all the horses shooting for the triple crown after winning the first 2 legs his derby and preakness beyers combined are significantly lower than the other 10.. only 2 of them regressed at least 5 points (justify 102-97) war emblem finished 8th and big brown was eased.. that's a lot of bad for a horse who figures to go of 2-5..i think if he goes off 4-5 (ml) or higher somethings not right
            _______________________________________________
            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: belmont stakes 2018

              Some good value on offshore sites for free drop willy, 50-1 on 1 site. Then i see 25 on another?? Was wondering why the difference in sites ?? If we only knew

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: belmont stakes 2018

                Originally posted by Jim13 View Post
                Some good value on offshore sites for free drop willy, 50-1 on 1 site. Then i see 25 on another?? Was wondering why the difference in sites ?? If we only knew

                not too familiar with that aspect jim.. but guess odds makers can have varying opinions on the same horse although that is quite an odds gap!!
                _______________________________________________
                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: belmont stakes 2018

                  Bleeker looks like it should be a fast track tomorrow, lets hope !!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: belmont stakes 2018

                    Like Free Drop Billy and taking exacta shots with Noble Indy, Tenfold and FDB. Might throw Vino in with some of these. If Justify wins I am done !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: belmont stakes 2018

                      Originally posted by Jim13 View Post
                      Bleeker looks like it should be a fast track tomorrow, lets hope !!

                      yeah beautiful day jim . finally!!
                      _______________________________________________
                      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: belmont stakes 2018

                        Originally posted by Chamblin View Post
                        Like Free Drop Billy and taking exacta shots with Noble Indy, Tenfold and FDB. Might throw Vino in with some of these. If Justify wins I am done !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

                        tenfold would be my other but I may just cover justify with free drop billy in an exacta and maybe a much smaller tenfold/free drop billy exacta ..good luck chamblin

                        the undercard picks will be in my main thread
                        _______________________________________________
                        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: belmont stakes 2018

                          Lets hope for a good, exciting and hopefully belmont stakes !! GL Bleeker if you are playing

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: belmont stakes 2018

                            Bleeker go check out the service forum. A service play recommends 600 + to be wagered on the belkont with the favorites lol. I can never understand how people could wager like that ??

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: belmont stakes 2018

                              Originally posted by Jim13 View Post
                              Bleeker go check out the service forum. A service play recommends 600 + to be wagered on the belkont with the favorites lol. I can never understand how people could wager like that ??
                              the only one I respect in there is post 26 and he's not with me.. we'll see.. jerry brown of the thorograph sheets likes free drop billy as a value play and I respect him a lot more than any of those guys
                              _______________________________________________
                              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                              Comment

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