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Going with the majority of the betting public here and taking San Diego State. Both teams run the ball a ton with Army running the option 92% of the time. Averaging 356 YRPG vs foes allowing 213 YRPG. San Diego State has seen the option being in the Mountain West and HC Long knows how to defend it well. The Aztecs run the ball 70% of the time, and leading the way is MWC POTY RB Rashaad Penny. The Aztecs beat Stanford and Arizona State this season and are 11th in nation in rushing defense. Allowing just 111 ypc vs teams averaging 177 yards per game rushing. Hopefully they're ready to play, and take advantage of having the better athletes in this matchup. Army won the Commander and Chief for the first time in over 20 years. Their season is complete regardless of the outcome in this exhibition game.
Still working....
Doc
[225] APPALACHIAN ST +6½ 110.00 USD / 100.00 USD
Rematch of last years Camellia Bowl where Toledo outplayed the Mountaineers averaging over a yard more per play. Losing the game on the combination of a 94-yd KO kickoff return for a TD, and an App State FG in the last seconds of the game. So revenge time for the Rockets, and it's a Toledo team that has duel threats with stud QB Woodside and a rushing attack lead by Terry Swandon. Toledo averaged running the ball 58% of the time this year, and Appalachian State averaged running it 59% of the time. Statistically the offenses are pretty comparable right down to the yards per points with both averaging 13.1 in that category. I give the defensive edge and the reason I'm playing them to Appalachian State though. Verses the run the Mountaineers allowed 147 RPG vs teams averaging 156 / game. They played teams that averaged rushing it 56% of the time. Toledo allowed 166 yards rushing / game vs teams averaging 162, and their opponents also averaged rusing it 56% of the time. Appalachian State is playing it's third straight bowl game with both games coming against MAC opponents. Once has a 7.5 point fav vs Ohio and winning 31-29, and the other vs today's opponent as a 1.5 point favorite and winning 31-28. So another close bowl game once again vs a top level MAC opponent wouldn't be a surprise to me. Counting yesterday's Bowl games MAC teams are now 21-42 SU in bowl contest, going 8-12 ATS as favorites and 15-24-1 ATS as dogs.
The Bulldogs from Silicon Valley will be making their first Bowl appearance since 2014, and deservedly so. After a 1-11 season last year they went 9-4 TY and played for the MWC title. They're trying to become just the 2nd team in FBS history to go from double digit losses to DD wins in one year. Houston meanwhile has slid backwards the last couple of years after throttling Florida State in their 2015 Bowl. The loss of their HC has showed it's wear this year. The Cougars holds the edge on offense here, but have had instability at the QB position using 3 QB's throughout this year. They still managed 70% through the air, and averaged running it 53% of the time. Fresno in my opinion holds the edge on defense and is the key reason why I'm backing them here. The Bulldogs held team 8 points below their average, 45 yards less in rushing & total offense. They were just in Hawaii last month so the trip to the Island state isn't new to them. Houston had higher hopes this year, and could be just using this as a vacation of sorts. Fresno was 6-0 ATS away from home this year, and I'm banking that'll be 7-0 by Christmas.
I hope everyone had a very nice Christmas!!!
Tuesday 12/26/17
[231] NO ILLINOIS +5½-110
110.00 USD / 100.00 USD
I think the strength of schedule will make Duke the sexy pick here, but look at how the Northern Illinois defense played against Boston College, Nebraska, and San Diego State this year. Losing 20-23 to BC, beat Nebraska 21-17, and losing to SDST and Rashaad Penny 28-34 as 9-point dog. They held SDST to just 127 yards rushing and 261 yards total in that game, but 4 turnovers turned out to be their demise that day. They're a run first team averaging 57% rushing plays/game, and Duke struggled verses run teams this year ranking 60th nationally. Duke isn't necessarily a run 1st team, with their 6'-5" QB Jones throwing for 12 TD and 11 INT's leads a Blue-Devil team who's offense was average at best. Duke scored just 19 PPG away from home and only 25 PPG overall running it just 52% of the time. Now as the realist that I am I must tell you UNI's recent Bowl appearances have been dismil. Losing 10-31 to Florida State, 23-52 to Marshall, & 7-55 to Boise State. The one difference here is that this Duke offense isn't comparable to those three teams. In my opinion I have the better defense, and a run dominate offensive vs a defense that has had bad games vs such teams (See Fla St, Pitt, Va Tech & Army). I'll grab the lowly MAC team and the points here.
The other two Bowl games today & tonight are marred with key injuries to QB's, and weak defenses for teams that are now over valued. I don't care to back favorites that don't meet certain criteria defensively. Even when the other teams QB is injured. I'll watch the lines, and injury report to see if something gets out of whack.
Today is when it really starts heating up ( I hope so anyway). Yesterday's matchups were blah to say the least in a fade the team with the most injuries and you win. Local bookie here in my town said not one of his bettors took an underdog yesterday. He stated he has been getting beat all season with a lack of underdog covers. Of course I'm not sure if he is telling the truth or not, but I've never known of a bookie not to have a winning year. Not one with a lot of bettors anyway. Neither hear nor there, but just sharing what I thought was an interesting conversation.
[235](Southern Miss (Golden Eagles)) +14½ -110 Risk $110 to Win $100
Where is Florida State's mind right now, and do they really care about this bowl game? and I know one star player (Top safety James) is already not going to suit up to get ready for the draft. Seems to me this bowl season when that has happened the team the player is on didn't show up. The strength of schedule does come into play here for wager size, because Southern Miss on defense had some nice numbers. They played much lesser competition than what they "may" see today. The Golden Eagles have been working with replacing last years star QB who was the all-time leading passer at the school of Farve. Griggs started the first four then Howard the next five, and back with Griggs who won their last 3 and had the team averaging 491 ypg, up over 60 ypg for the season. He finished with a 15-2 ratio and word out of Mississippi is the team is preparing for this game like it's the Super bowl. A good defense on paper, and a motivated underdog at that vs an expected less than interested FSU team. I'll grab the points in this first Bowl game.
Today is when it really starts heating up ( I hope so anyway). Yesterday's matchups were blah to say the least in a fade the team with the most injuries and you win. Local bookie here in my town said not one of his bettors took an underdog yesterday. He stated he has been getting beat all season with a lack of underdog covers. Of course I'm not sure if he is telling the truth or not, but I've never known of a bookie not to have a winning year. Not one with a lot of bettors anyway. Neither hear nor there, but just sharing what I thought was an interesting conversation.
[235](Southern Miss (Golden Eagles)) +14½ -110 Risk $110 to Win $100
Where is Florida State's mind right now, and do they really care about this bowl game? and I know one star player (Top safety James) is already not going to suit up to get ready for the draft. Seems to me this bowl season when that has happened the team the player is on didn't show up. The strength of schedule does come into play here for wager size, because Southern Miss on defense had some nice numbers. They played much lesser competition than what they "may" see today. The Golden Eagles have been working with replacing last years star QB who was the all-time leading passer at the school of Farve. Griggs started the first four then Howard the next five, and back with Griggs who won their last 3 and had the team averaging 491 ypg, up over 60 ypg for the season. He finished with a 15-2 ratio and word out of Mississippi is the team is preparing for this game like it's the Super bowl. A good defense on paper, and a motivated underdog at that vs an expected less than interested FSU team. I'll grab the points in this first Bowl game.
Working on other games.
Doc
Texas (Longhorns): Point Spread +3 -115 Risking $230.00 to win $200.00
In this Bowl game I like the defense that Texas is bringing, and feel the wrong team is favored here. The Tigers are a 1-5 start turned their season around with six straight wins. However all six win came against teams NOT playing in a bowl game. Plus OC Josh Heupel jumped ship to become HC at UCF. I'll take the Longhorns in this contest to win SU.
Texas (Longhorns): Point Spread +3 -115 Risking $230.00 to win $200.00
In this Bowl game I like the defense that Texas is bringing, and feel the wrong team is favored here. The Tigers are a 1-5 start turned their season around with six straight wins. However all six win came against teams NOT playing in a bowl game. Plus OC Josh Heupel jumped ship to become HC at UCF. I'll take the Longhorns in this contest to win SU.
Doc
Purdue (Boilermakers): Point Spread +3 -110 Risking $220.00 to win $200.00
Purdue +3 vs Arizona: In the other nightcap Bowl game I'm sticking with the same philosophy as I did with Texas in taking the stronger defense. Arizona has Kahlil Tate at QB, but in their last two losses vs Oregon and AZST he was held in check with 60 yards/rushing. The Boilermakers defense is much better than those squads. Plus PU is getting their best defensive player Bentley back after missing the last game of the regular season. We've liked Purdue HC Jeff Brohm from the get go, and I'll back him once again here.
Virginia (Cavaliers): Point Spread +2 -110 Risking $110.00 to win $100.00
Virginia Tech (Hokies): Point Spread +5 ½ -110 Risking $110.00 to win $100.00
Stanford (Cardinals): Point Spread +3 -105 Risking $105.00 to win $100.00
Off a 2-1 +$280 day, and four good bowl games for today. Everyone and their brother is taking Michigan State tonight including all the touts I've seen. I agree with them, but seeing they're now 2.5 point favorites I'll go ahead and "PROBABLY" pass.
Here we go....
I lean to Virginia in the first game verses a Navy defense that struggled in every aspect of the game this year. UVA is a pass first team with Benkert at QB (59.6% 25-8 ratio). Plus they have good enough running backs to take advantage of a Navy defense that allowed 4.5 YPC, and a secondary that was 122nd vs the pass. Not worried about UVA being unprepared for the option here today. HC Bronco Mendenhall seen it several times vs Air Force, and is 9-1 SU & vs the spread against option teams. I must take the points and fade the favorite with a bad defense here.
I believe Virginia Tech well finally be healthy for today's tough-ass matchup vs OKST. The Cowboys own the edge in offense, but I give Tech the edge in defense. Coach Fuente is expected to open the offense back up now that is redshirt Freshmen QB is 100% with extra practice included. So the dull numbers we seen late in the year aren't expected to be there today. The Bud Foster defense will be up against it vs this OKST offense, but if anyone can get a unit ready with time to prepare it's Bud. The Hokies rushing offense isn't something a Big 12 defense is use to seeing. I think the closest thing may be Kansas State, and the Wildcats put up 45 getting 421 yards off offense verses OKST last month. I'll take a shot with the Hokies here today.
Finally in the Stanford-TCU matchup I like where Stanford is right now compared to TCU. The Cardinal are the better rushing team, but are flawed a touch on defense. However the Horned Frogs defense isn't much better in five games they gave up over 460 yards, and 31 or more points scored. Stanford should be 100% healthy with Bryce Love running the ball, and newly founded & legit QB Costello having extra practice times to work on his craft. TCU's offense hasn't been the same since RB Anderson went out vs OU in November, and they've not faced a physical team like they'll see in Stanford here. Opponents averaged just rushing it 53% of the time, while The Cardinal average running it 56% of the time. Riding dog number three here with the better rushing attack, and slight I give a slight edge on defense.
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