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  • Bowl Games 2017:

    Hi Folks,

    Hope everyone is doing well, and having fun getting ready for the Holiday Season.

    Saturday, December 16th


    CFB [201] NORTH TEXAS +6½-105 105.00 USD / 100.00 USD
    CFB [206] BOISE STATE +7-110 110.00 USD / 100.00 USD
    CFB [207] MARSHALL +3½-115 115.00 USD / 100.00 USD
    CFB [210] ARKANSAS STATE -3-110 110.00 USD / 100.00 USD

    FWIW: $100 is the smallest wager I'll make during Bowl season, and the max will be $500 if I like something well enough. It's probably best to just flat bet all these games, but I'll be who I am and probably make staggered wagers.

    North Texas is without RB Wilson, and Troy has the strong defensive edge here. Yet the number is sitting at 6.5 for a reason I believe, and North Texas playing the tougher schedule. Plus off the ass whooping from the Lane Train will be motivation for the Mean Green. Both teams are more pass driven to begin with UNT passing 52% of the time to Troy's 54%, and UNT's QB Fine gets the edge here vs a Troy defense that allowed 60.6% this year. The Mean Green allowed just a 53.3% completion rate.

    This years Boise team isn't the explosive teams we've become accustom to over the years. They still have a strong defense (not great - just strong), and Oregon losing their HC is the reason I've chosen the Broncos here. Oregon has Herbert back and the Ducks were a different team with him, but that could very well be because of who they faced when he played (it was the weakest defenses on their schedule). The intangibles and Boise's edge on defense has me riding them here. I guess I can make a note Boise has always been great vs P5 schools going 6-2 ATS in Bowls, and are 2-0 ATS as a dog this year.

    Marshall has faced the tougher schedule, and for me has the best defense by far in this matchup. Colorado State can score with the best of them. but I think Doc Holiday can come up with a good game plan to take advantage of that poor run defense (giving up 5 YPC) which keeps the Rams offense on the sidelines longer than they would like. The Herd runs about 50% of the time this year, but Holiday is good at exploiting edges.

    Both Arkansas State and Middle Tenn State are pass driven teams with the Red Wolves holding the edge by a fare share on overall offense, and "PASSING" defense. The Blue Raiders are allowing 62.9% while the Red Wolves have done well holding teams to a 51.1% pass completion average. I don't put a great deal of Stockstill's numbers being so good since he made it back as starter. Reason being it was against some of the worse passing defenses around (UTEP, Charlotte, ODU & WKY).

    Peace

    Doc

  • #2
    Re: Bowl Games 2017:

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    • #3
      Re: Bowl Games 2017:

      Good Morning,

      Obviously I passed the Akron-FAU Bowl game last night. I like the Owls, but never saw the line get to 21 or less so I passed. After all there's no law that says I have to play every game.

      Wednesday 12/20/17

      [213] LOUISIANA TECH +4-110 220.00 USD / 200.00 USD
      Another game where the HC isn't present with SMU's Chad Morris heading to Arkansas. I liked the Skip Holtz lead Bulldogs even if Morris had stayed in Dallas for the Bowl game. SMU has a potent offense, but their defense, especially the last couple of games was pretty bad. This year Louisiana Tech played a better brand of defense than they had in previous Holts years come in with a 6-6 record. Losing three games by one point, and they've got good momentum heading into this one. Winning their last two games to become Bowl eligible. Edge on defense (especially vs the run), momentum, and the coaching change puts me on the road team here.

      Doc
      Last edited by Docwatson; 12-20-2017, 06:28 AM.

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      • #4
        Re: Bowl Games 2017:

        I like La. Tech tonight quite a bit.
        "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

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        • #5
          Re: Bowl Games 2017:

          Originally posted by jumperjack View Post
          I like La. Tech tonight quite a bit.
          Good deal. My only pause is that SMU played very well at home. With kids gone for Christmas break, and not at the "exact" field that may not matter. Good luck to us Bud!

          Doc

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          • #6
            Re: Bowl Games 2017:

            doc

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            • #7
              Re: Bowl Games 2017:

              Way to go on the picks Doc. Conference USA is kicking ass as usual during bowl season. They only get to play who the NCAA lets them play... and they have been pretty good lately. Good luck the rest of the season

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              • #8
                Re: Bowl Games 2017:

                Twitter @winningpix1
                Last Season NFL 96-71-7 +$3750

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                • #9
                  Re: Bowl Games 2017:

                  Thanks Men!

                  Always good to be on the right side of a blowout. Moving on to the next one tonight.

                  Thursday 12/21/17
                  [215] TEMPLE -7 110.00 USD / 100.00 USD

                  The Panthers of Florida International are more of a run generated team rushing an average of 56% of the time while Temple looks to have struggled on paper vs the run this year. The Owls allowed 185 yards rushing per game, which is a moderate number. However they played teams that averaged rushing it 59% of the time so the number is going to naturally be high. Florida International's defense isn't the greatest in the world allowing 6 YPP, including a 65.4% pass completion rate. Enter Temple's QB Nutile who started the last five games and they went from 19 PPG to 31 PPG with him as starter. Winning three of their last four to become bowl eligible with six overall wins. I prefer to fade the team with the weaker defense this time of year, and I think the Panthers have the weaker of the two units here. Throw in the strength of schedule edge for Temple, and my forecast for The Owls to play solid defense against the run which is FIU's strength, and I'll lay the number tonight.

                  Doc

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                  • #10
                    Re: Bowl Games 2017:

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                    • #11
                      Re: Bowl Games 2017:

                      Good Morning

                      Friday 12/22/17

                      A couple of Bowl games on tap for today. One at 12:30 and the other one at 4:30 EST. I'm waiting for the line to move to 3.5 or 4 with Central Michigan before playing them. Right now the tickets are heavy on the Chippewas but once people learn of Wyoming QB Allen is going to play I think that number will go up from the +3 -105.

                      [217] UAB +6½ 110.00 USD / 100.00 USD

                      Sometimes I just get a feeling about a game, and can get through the statistical aspect of a matchup. Here is one of those instances where to me on paper Ohio is the right play. They have the better rushing game and rushing defense. In a game where both teams rely heavily on the run as both average running the ball about 63% of the time. Both played in conference's that were above average running the ball with opponents averaging 54% rushing plays. However here's the deal, UAB has been the surprise of the year coming back onto the scene after a 2-year hiatus. They even have players left over from the 2014 team who stuck it out with them, and going out with a Bowl win would be huge. Across the field though Ohio fully expected to be playing for a MAC title, but a surprising loss to Akron derailed that. They've been to bowl games 8 out of the last 9 years so nothing new or exciting for them. Throw in the fact their best RB Ouellette is out with shoulder aids, and UAB's strength was on defense to begin with and I'll take a shot with the Blazers here.

                      Back later with a possible Famous Idaho Potato Bowl play.

                      Doc

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                      • #12
                        Re: Bowl Games 2017:

                        today

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                        • #13
                          Re: Bowl Games 2017:

                          Totally outsmarted myself on UAB with the motivation factor rather than all the other info in front of me. Passing on Central Michigan as the line never went to 3.5 in fact it's starting to go to 2.5 in a few spots.

                          We'll fire at them again tomorrow.

                          Doc

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                          • #14
                            Re: Bowl Games 2017:

                            Good Morning!

                            12/23/17

                            [222] SOUTH FLORIDA -2½ 110.00 USD / 100.00 USD


                            I slept in this morning after an afternoon and evening celebrating with friends and family. The Big 12 vs AAC contest I think will have a lot of points as both defense's are medium good at best while both offense's can get up and go. For the side I've pulled the trigger on the Bulls as I like teams that can control the ground game verses teams that would rather pass the ball first. If that ground game gets off to a good start it will keep the passing team on the sideline longer. Thus disrupting the timing, and eventually wearing their own defense down by having to spend more time on the field. In this matchup today South Florida runs the ball 63% of the time while the Red-Raiders only 45% of the time. Only a hundred dollar play because the strength of schedule, and I still have visions in my head of how UCF moved the ball vs USF Thanksgiving weekend. Passing the total because of the possibility of USF grinding the ball and a constant running clock.

                            Back shortly with more.....

                            Doc


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                            • #15
                              Re: Bowl Games 2017:

                              Originally posted by Docwatson View Post
                              Good Morning!

                              12/23/17

                              [222] SOUTH FLORIDA -2½ 110.00 USD / 100.00 USD


                              I slept in this morning after an afternoon and evening celebrating with friends and family. The Big 12 vs AAC contest I think will have a lot of points as both defense's are medium good at best while both offense's can get up and go. For the side I've pulled the trigger on the Bulls as I like teams that can control the ground game verses teams that would rather pass the ball first. If that ground game gets off to a good start it will keep the passing team on the sideline longer. Thus disrupting the timing, and eventually wearing their own defense down by having to spend more time on the field. In this matchup today South Florida runs the ball 63% of the time while the Red-Raiders only 45% of the time. Only a hundred dollar play because the strength of schedule, and I still have visions in my head of how UCF moved the ball vs USF Thanksgiving weekend. Passing the total because of the possibility of USF grinding the ball and a constant running clock.

                              Back shortly with more.....

                              Doc


                              [224] SAN DIEGO STATE -6½ 110.00 USD / 100.00 USD

                              Going with the majority of the betting public here and taking San Diego State. Both teams run the ball a ton with Army running the option 92% of the time. Averaging 356 YRPG vs foes allowing 213 YRPG. San Diego State has seen the option being in the Mountain West and HC Long knows how to defend it well. The Aztecs run the ball 70% of the time, and leading the way is MWC POTY RB Rashaad Penny. The Aztecs beat Stanford and Arizona State this season and are 11th in nation in rushing defense. Allowing just 111 ypc vs teams averaging 177 yards per game rushing. Hopefully they're ready to play, and take advantage of having the better athletes in this matchup. Army won the Commander and Chief for the first time in over 20 years. Their season is complete regardless of the outcome in this exhibition game.

                              Still working.....

                              Doc

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