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MLB OPS Differentials
I have posted this several times in past years, just going to explain a little what this is. When a team does significantly better facing one side of pitching (lefties/righties) it has a positive OPS differential from facing one kind of pitching. Generally this is just an added tool I use once there is a significant amount of plate appearances by teams so the results aren't as fluky.
Positive OPS Differentials vs. Lefties
Chicago White Sox + .138 (.812 vs. lefties - .674 vs. righties)
Chicago Cubs +.108 (.808 vs. lefties - .700 vs. righties)
Miami Marlins +.086 (.812 vs. lefties - .726 vs. righties)
Obviously the White Sox stick out and for 2 reasons, they are VERY strong against lefties, but also extremely weak facing righties . They deserve serious consideration as a PLAY ON or an OVER any time they face a lefty. This shouldn't be used as the only parameter for a play, rather a tool to use to consider that would strengthen a play. It is kind of unusual that just 3 teams hit lefties significantly better, the list for righties is much more extensive...
Positive OPS Differentials vs. Righties
Seattle +.114 (.769 vs. R - .655 vs. L)
Arizona +.106 (.792 vs. R - .686 vs. L)
Tampa Bay +.103 (.792 vs. R - .689 vs. L)
Minnesota +.093 (.775 vs. R - .682 vs. L)
Texas +.092 (.745 vs. R - .653 vs. L)
St. Louis +.090 (.747 vs. R - .657 vs. L)
N.Y. Yankees +.089 (.822 vs. R - .733 vs. L)
San Diego +.083 (.682 vs. R - .599 vs. L)
Cleveland +.076 (.766 vs. R - .690 vs. L)
A few comments on the above...San Diego is not on the list because they are particularly good at hitting righties, but they are by far the worst against lefties. A month ago Texas had a .571 OPS against lefties, so they are trending upwards. Early in the season everyone was fading the Dodgers against lefties...they have gone from a .647 OPS against them May 1st to a .748 OPS against them today. Obviously they have been hitting lefties pretty damn good to make that jump in a little more than a month. As an example how to use these for totals...if the White Sox played San Diego with Quintana (L) against Perdomo (R) I would immediately think UNDER and then try to find more reasons to like the under as well. On the flip side if The White Sox with Miguel Gonzalez (R) were facing the Mariners with Miranda (L) my first thoughts would be towards it going OVER. If it were Quintana against Miranda I would think White Sox because of their strength against lefties and the Mariners weakness against lefties. Hope this is a helpful tool for you guys moving forward.
Positive OPS Differentials vs. Lefties
Chicago White Sox + .138 (.812 vs. lefties - .674 vs. righties)
Chicago Cubs +.108 (.808 vs. lefties - .700 vs. righties)
Miami Marlins +.086 (.812 vs. lefties - .726 vs. righties)
Obviously the White Sox stick out and for 2 reasons, they are VERY strong against lefties, but also extremely weak facing righties . They deserve serious consideration as a PLAY ON or an OVER any time they face a lefty. This shouldn't be used as the only parameter for a play, rather a tool to use to consider that would strengthen a play. It is kind of unusual that just 3 teams hit lefties significantly better, the list for righties is much more extensive...
Positive OPS Differentials vs. Righties
Seattle +.114 (.769 vs. R - .655 vs. L)
Arizona +.106 (.792 vs. R - .686 vs. L)
Tampa Bay +.103 (.792 vs. R - .689 vs. L)
Minnesota +.093 (.775 vs. R - .682 vs. L)
Texas +.092 (.745 vs. R - .653 vs. L)
St. Louis +.090 (.747 vs. R - .657 vs. L)
N.Y. Yankees +.089 (.822 vs. R - .733 vs. L)
San Diego +.083 (.682 vs. R - .599 vs. L)
Cleveland +.076 (.766 vs. R - .690 vs. L)
A few comments on the above...San Diego is not on the list because they are particularly good at hitting righties, but they are by far the worst against lefties. A month ago Texas had a .571 OPS against lefties, so they are trending upwards. Early in the season everyone was fading the Dodgers against lefties...they have gone from a .647 OPS against them May 1st to a .748 OPS against them today. Obviously they have been hitting lefties pretty damn good to make that jump in a little more than a month. As an example how to use these for totals...if the White Sox played San Diego with Quintana (L) against Perdomo (R) I would immediately think UNDER and then try to find more reasons to like the under as well. On the flip side if The White Sox with Miguel Gonzalez (R) were facing the Mariners with Miranda (L) my first thoughts would be towards it going OVER. If it were Quintana against Miranda I would think White Sox because of their strength against lefties and the Mariners weakness against lefties. Hope this is a helpful tool for you guys moving forward.
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