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derby day card saturday 5/6

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  • derby day card saturday 5/6

    figure I'll run a seperate thread and start with the big race..feel free to chime in if you like anybody...I'll post a kentucky oaks pick in here tomorrow also..any picks for the earlier part of friday's card will go in the other thread..if it's sloppy tomorrow probably won't be very active


    kentucky derby

    #13 j boys echo (20-1)


    ran 2nd in debut at churchill so you know he likes the track..broke maiden following start at keeneland around 2 turns so like fact he got a route win as a 2yo. .next race in the delta jackpot not terrible and I rate it higher than others would based on a running line pattern I like...so overall I like what he did as a 2yo..not outstanding but solid...

    now we get to the two main reasons I really like him ..
    his running line in his 3 year old debut in the withers at aqueduct was very similar to his last in the bluegrass at keeneland (brisnet fig exactly the same also)..he came back in 4 weeks off the withers and won the gotham with a figure only surpassed by classic empire..he was closing fast and opened up two lengths in the final eigth at 8.5 furlongs..comes back again in 4 weeks from the bluegrass so think that along with the running line may set him up nice for the derby..gets a decent post position...also give some extra credit for costing 485k to begin with and being by a distance sire mineshaft

    lots of talented horses and you can make a case for a lot of them as usual...combining price with seeing things that appeal to me more than others this is who I'm going with
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

  • #2
    Re: derby day card saturday 5/6

    don't care for the oaks but will post all derby day stuff in here tomorrow.. did post something for the last race in other thread
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: derby day card saturday 5/6

      brad thomas on with mike francesa on thursday.. as many of you know he's the monmouth on-track handicapper and imo one of the most astute horseplayers out there ..also interview with jerry bailey

      https://www.google.com/amp/newyork.c...cky-derby/amp/
      _______________________________________________
      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: derby day card saturday 5/6

        churchill downs
        1st post 10:30

        R1 #1 maximus beauty (15-1) #4 wholehearted (8-1)

        of course be looking at rest of the undercard..think I'll try to play most of them and if it's not a strong opinion or really big odds (or both) may say half unit
        _______________________________________________
        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: derby day card saturday 5/6

          R1 #1 maximus beauty (15-1) #4 wholehearted (8-1)
          R2 #2 donwell (8-1)
          R3 #1 flashy jewel (8-1)
          R4 #1 caviar czar (7-2)
          Last edited by bleeker; 05-06-2017, 08:31 AM.
          _______________________________________________
          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: derby day card saturday 5/6

            R5 #1 forge (7-2)
            R6 #7 carina mia (2-1)
            _______________________________________________
            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: derby day card saturday 5/6

              and thanks for posting

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: derby day card saturday 5/6

                Thanks bleeker the track is a mess ! I'm going to be playing the 2 in the derby with your 13 thunder snow won an competive race in an off track uae derby watching the reply and seems he had some left after the wire ? Like the odds but the post is a killer !

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: derby day card saturday 5/6

                  Originally posted by Jim13 View Post
                  Thanks bleeker the track is a mess ! I'm going to be playing the 2 in the derby with your 13 thunder snow won an competive race in an off track uae derby watching the reply and seems he had some left after the wire ? Like the odds but the post is a killer !
                  sorry a little late jim.. yeah was earlier but probably drying out a bit now and may be more like "good" by post time.. yeah 2 a very tough post as you wind up getting pushed inside unless you have some decent speed.. never hurts to have a little good wet track experience.. my other gonna be#15 mccracken based on what brad thomas said with francesa.. bol
                  _______________________________________________
                  ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: derby day card saturday 5/6

                    R14 #3 arch cat (10-1)
                    _______________________________________________
                    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                    Comment

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