Conf. Championship Totals 2017

[jumperjack]

Re: Conf. Championship Totals 2017

Middled the UC Irvine game and as of now standing pat on the others

Middled North Dakota...thought I had done that already cause the line hadn't moved in almost 2 hours.

[jumperjack]

Re: Conf. Championship Totals 2017

Last year these went 19-12 and the year before they went 20-12 and this year so far 17-9 with Sunday's games left. Just need to go 3-3 Sunday for almost identical results each of the last 3 years.

[jumperjack]

Re: Conf. Championship Totals 2017

All lines in for the day

[Slugger]

Re: Conf. Championship Totals 2017

Thanks for posting this!
I'm out in Vegas on business, and was able to make a little money by playing many of the unders yesterday.

Some quick questions - will you play these the same way today?
With less games and bigger conferences - for the most part, do you figure the totals lines will be sharper? do you think the oddsmakers will adjust?

I'm noticing the lines aren't shooting right down like yesterday...other than the Kentucky/Arkansas total.

And, finally...what are your thoughts on teasing up any of these totals, and playing under.
I did a couple five point teasers yesterday that were able to hit by using these. (Creighton and under is an example since it allowed me to get the Blue Jays plus 15).

Thanks again for all you do here!

[jumperjack]

Re: Conf. Championship Totals 2017

Thanks for posting this!
I'm out in Vegas on business, and was able to make a little money by playing many of the unders yesterday.

Some quick questions - will you play these the same way today?
With less games and bigger conferences - for the most part, do you figure the totals lines will be sharper? do you think the oddsmakers will adjust?

I'm noticing the lines aren't shooting right down like yesterday...other than the Kentucky/Arkansas total.

And, finally...what are your thoughts on teasing up any of these totals, and playing under.
I did a couple five point teasers yesterday that were able to hit by using these. (Creighton and under is an example since it allowed me to get the Blue Jays plus 15).

Thanks again for all you do here!

I have no intention to try and middle these any more. A member suggested it might be smart to do so last year and I regret doing it cause it cost me a lot of profit I should have made.

[jumperjack]

Re: Conf. Championship Totals 2017

Conf. Tounrney Champ games U/O in 2015 were 19-12 in 2016 they were 20-12 and this year's final results were 23-9.

[ambrose]

Re: Conf. Championship Totals 2017

JJ, thanks for taking the time "work" this thread. This was great stuff and profitable. Much appreciated.

[jumperjack]

Re: Conf. Championship Totals 2017

JJ, thanks for taking the time "work" this thread. This was great stuff and profitable. Much appreciated.

Thanks for taking the time to stop by and say so, I appreciate it.

[turbo]

Re: Conf. Championship Totals 2017

JJ thanks you putting this up and tracking it. Thanks for all you do on this site.

[jumperjack]

Re: Conf. Championship Totals 2017

JJ thanks you putting this up and tracking it. Thanks for all you do on this site.

[illini23]

Re: Conf. Championship Totals 2017

I too want to say thanks for reminding the forum of this . I was planning on playing this anyway but your reminding me to play early as soon as the lines came out saved me some money. thanks again for all you do here.

[jumperjack]

Re: Conf. Championship Totals 2017

I too want to say thanks for reminding the forum of this . I was planning on playing this anyway but your reminding me to play early as soon as the lines came out saved me some money. thanks again for all you do here.

It really is unreal how fast the lines move after they come out. Today was actually the first day opening a BetOnLine account to bet earlier paid off, I got a W instead of a loss. Really appreciate you taking the time to post this too. We need more interaction on this site besides the banality of just saying good luck.

[Jel]

Re: Conf. Championship Totals 2017

Great stuff JJ! Thanks for the work here!!

[jumperjack]

Re: Conf. Championship Totals 2017

Bumping this so I can find it for when these start.

[barrett]

Re: Conf. Championship Totals 2017

A couple of thoughts about this system:

1. It is very effective! The results have been excellent over the past half dozen years, and the theory behind it (as laid out by JJ) makes a great deal of sense. It is fun to have a large number of plays that can produce a great deal of profit in a short amount of time. There will probably come a year when the system leaks some gas, but even when that happens, the worst I can see is that you break even.

2. As JJ has stressed to the board, it is extremely important to get down early. Most of these lines are based on what a regular season over/under would be, but these championship games produce a different set of circumstances, which drives the line down quickly.

3. Unless you have a book that is first to the table in laying down the opening total, you are liable to lose anywhere from 1.5 to 6 points off the top. Ordinarily, that would pre-empt making a bet when you are losing that many points because you are getting much the worst of it.

4. In this case, however, you might make the under play anyway. Last year, JJ (by getting the early number) went 23-9. Note that if you had waited right until game time to make your bet, you would have gone 19-10-3; still a very good result. Amateurs tend to play the OVER at the last minute, so if you miss the opener, or don't have access to an early number, play the UNDER right before game time.