Super Bowl 51 Action Reports / Betting Info

[NYK]

Re: Super Bowl 51 Action Reports / Betting Info

3 point favorites in the NFL are more likely to win outright in the playoffs than the regular season

[NYK]

Re: Super Bowl 51 Action Reports / Betting Info

Should you buy a half-point on 3-point underdogs?


Win rate increases but profits decrease

[NYK]

Re: Super Bowl 51 Action Reports / Betting Info

How long will it take Luke Bryan to sing National Anthem?

Over/Under 129 seconds


UNDER 7-3 in last 10 Super Bowls.

[NYK]

Re: Super Bowl 51 Action Reports / Betting Info

No turnover in Super Bowl (+1000)


Only been 2 Super Bowls without any turnovers.

[NYK]

Re: Super Bowl 51 Action Reports / Betting Info

It’s not surprising to see bettors leaning to the high side, especially knowing that the ‘over’ has gone 7-3 in this year’s NFL Playoffs with an average combined score of 48.9 points per game.


The Falcons are averaging 34.4 points per game, which is ranked first in the league while the Patriots are just two spots behind them at 28.4 PPG.

-- Atlanta has been the best ‘over’ bet this season, producing a 15-2-1 record.

-- A lot of the Falcons success on offense came from big plays and they were ranked third with 93 runs of 10 yards or more and passing plays of 20 yards or more. If you enjoy playing totals, then check out this site and then follow up with this year’s O/U records, since they’re correlated.

-- In four games versus the NFC this season, Atlanta averaged 29 PPG with the lowest output being 23 points in a road game against Denver, one of the better defensive units in the league.



-- New England averaged 30.7 PPG in the 14 games with Tom Brady as quarterback this season and they enter this game on a roll, averaging 35 PPG in their last three games.

-- Including the results from this year's playoffs, the Falcons have now seen the ‘over’ go 6-1 in six postseason games with quarterback Matt Ryan under center behind an offense averaging 30.7 PPG.

-- Playing with a rest is often overlooked but Atlanta has done very well with the extra week. Since Ryan joined the team in 2008, the Falcons have gone 8-2 when playing with rest and the offense averaged 30 PPG which helped produce a 6-4 'over' mark. This includes the 36-point effort against Seattle in this year's Divisional Playoff round.

-- New England’s offense has played well off a bye in the playoffs. The Patriots are averaging 34.8 PPG in their last six postseason games with rest which includes a 34-point effort against Houston this year and 28 versus Seattle in the Super Bowl two years ago.

-- While the Patriots boast the best scoring defense, the same can’t be said for Atlanta’s unit. The Falcons are ranked 22nd in total yards (367.5) and a lot of those numbers came through the air (263.5 YPG). Atlanta’s ranked 23rd in scoring defense (24.8 PPG).

-- The Patriots have played well in this venue, going 4-1 all-time and that includes a victory in Super Bowl 38 versus Carolina. The ‘over’ went 4-1 in those games and the Patriots helped the cause by averaging 28.6 PPG.

[NYK]

Re: Super Bowl 51 Action Reports / Betting Info

Sports Insights ...


"Starting to see 'under' money show up ... 41% of bettors are now on the under (58.5), which is the highest percentage since January 22"

[NYK]

Re: Super Bowl 51 Action Reports / Betting Info

SportsLine ...


We simulated SB51 10,000 times ... Here's who wins, and the exact score:



We predict a score of 31-27 New England, which means the Patriots will cover a 3-point spread and make it 3-0 straight up and against the spread in the playoffs this season.



Here are projected stat lines for key contributors on each team. They're helpful if you're making any Super Bowl prop bets:


QUARTERBACKS

•Tom Brady (NE): 26/37, 291 yards, 2.34 TDs, 0.40 INTs
•Matt Ryan (ATL): 25/36, 309 yards, 1.92 TDs, 0.78 INTs


RUNNING BACKS

•LeGarrette Blount (NE): 13.1 rushes, 56 yards, 0.77 TDs
•Dion Lewis (NE): 9.0 rushes, 41 yards, 0.20 TDs
•Devonta Freeman (ATL): 13.1 rushes, 56 yards, 0.47 TDs
•Tevin Coleman (ATL): 8.6 rushes, 35 yards, 0.38 TDs


WIDE RECEIVERS

•Chris Hogan (NE): 4.6 receptions, 77 yards, 0.47 TDs
•Julian Edelman (NE): 6.8 receptions, 74 yards, 0.51 TDs
•Martellus Bennett (NE): 3.2 receptions, 37 yards, 0.32 TDs
•Malcolm Mitchell (NE): 2.6 receptions, 33 yards, 0.34 TDs
•Julio Jones (ATL): 7.3 receptions, 108 yards, 0.50 TDs
•Taylor Gabriel (ATL): 3.8 receptions, 54 yards, 0.35 TDs
•Mohamed Sanu (ATL): 4.2 receptions, 46 yards, 0.28 TDs


DEFENSE

•New England: 2.08 sacks, 0.79 INTs, 0.65 fumble recoveries
•Atlanta: 1.35 sacks, 0.43 INTs, 0.78 fumble recoveries


KICKING

•New England: 2.1 field goals made, 2.4 field goals attempted, 3.2 extra points
•Atlanta: 2.2 field goals made, 2.5 field goals attempted, 2.7 extra points

[NYK]

Re: Super Bowl 51 Action Reports / Betting Info

Top Bet ...


77% of cash ... 83% of bets on Atlanta

[NYK]

Re: Super Bowl 51 Action Reports / Betting Info

In 2 seasons under Dan Quinn, Falcons are 0-11 when their opponent has more than 25 rushes and 21-2 when they don't (including playoffs)

[NYK]

Re: Super Bowl 51 Action Reports / Betting Info

Final Super Bowl LI Injury Report:

[NYK]

Re: Super Bowl 51 Action Reports / Betting Info

Super Bowl bets are about to pick up dramatically ...

[NYK]

Re: Super Bowl 51 Action Reports / Betting Info

Here's the latest action according to William Hill


Money still favoring Patriots ATS and on ML 48 hours out

[NYK]

Re: Super Bowl 51 Action Reports / Betting Info

Las Vegas sportsbook operator at CG Technology took a $1 million bet on the Atlanta Falcons +3 this afternoon.

[NYK]

Re: Super Bowl 51 Action Reports / Betting Info

During Falcons' 6-gm win streak, they've taken a total of 1 offensive snap in the 4th qtr with the game within one score.

[NYK]

Re: Super Bowl 51 Action Reports / Betting Info

Updated:

Top 20 props at William Hill by money wagered: