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SB Prop that's quite interesting

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  • SB Prop that's quite interesting

    I posted this in another forum that I frequent, it's a response to a real good capper and person who likes these two props and the total

    1 - WILL THE PATRIOTS SCORE IN ALL 4 QUARTERS?
    **(Overtime does not count)

    YES +120

    NO -140

    2 - WILL THE FALCONS SCORE IN ALL 4 QUARTERS?
    **(Overtime does not count)

    YES +120

    NO -140

    3 - He loves the under and he thinks the game will be close but as of yet he's not betting it

    So I decided to look into these a wee bit and here was my response to him:

    Atta boy Mark let the good times roll. Gonna add some some stuff to your thoughts here. First off one would think the points are a big deal in Patriot SB's and they are, here's a look at their margins in their 6 appearances since '02:



    That's why I bought up to -2.5 (-19)

    Next is the total which have seen those 6 games go 2-4 o/u, the two overs were lined at 37.5 (61 points scored) and 48 (52 points scored). Of the other 4 not one came remotely close to the posted total of this weekends game .

    Next let me critique your prop for will there be a point scored in every qtr and I like this one. In those 6 SB games NE has failed to post a point in the 1stq of any one of them, not one going scoerless in 10 qtrs total or 41%. Add in the tasty stat of NE not allowing any points in 10 different qtrs, that my friend is out of 24 qtrs. 41% scoreless qtrs , 41% scored and 41% allowed , man that's good

    I definitely think your on the right track with your early looks Mark but I'll keep my eye on you just in case, lol.
    Last edited by Thomas; 01-31-2017, 05:08 PM.

  • #2
    Re: SB Prop that's quite interesting

    Great info Thomas, thanks for the post!
    "The ban on sports betting does exactly what Prohibition did, it makes criminals rich!"

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    • #3
      Re: SB Prop that's quite interesting

      I think you have to take into account that 2 of those Super Bowls they played against a defensively centered Giants team. Comparing either of those 2 games to this one is a mistake because Atlanta just is not that good defensively. Eli Manning won 2 super bowls not because of anything he did, rather the defense won those games. Games have a certain momentum to them. Both of those had a decidedly defensive tone to them from the jump. I would be shocked if this game stayed under 54 points. I know that isn't the total here, just putting out what I think is a minimum point total for the game.
      "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

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      • #4
        Re: SB Prop that's quite interesting

        Interesting thoughts Jack and yes you're right of course about the defensive "atmosphere" in those two games in particular and in quite a few SB's period but certainly not all of them. Your 56 is right around where I think this game will land, I said at least 55 in a discussion elsewhere. That thought is just an assumption, wishful thinking so to say. One can plainly see how the Pats have approached those last 6 SB appearances giving the 1stq a lot of attention by sparring with their partner and keeping things within site and in front of them. The Pats will not (want) let things get outa hand here early I don't think but I think they're prepared to chase if need be and are very capable if that situation presents itself. Can't see either team not getting there's in this game and I think total players will know their fate by the time the 1stq ends. I think live betting may come into play on the total especially if you bet the U60ish to begin with if both teams come out cautious in the early going and if things are going the scoring route you'll still have the opportunity to "buy back" that bet after 15 minutes if you're getting cold feet. Also of interest the posted qtr totals added up for this game = 55 a full fg or better less than the current total which makes me think the books are expecting an under.

        Thank you JEL and gl this weekend to all with this thought in mind, it's only one game don't get yourself buried
        Last edited by Thomas; 01-31-2017, 10:42 PM.

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        • #5
          Re: SB Prop that's quite interesting

          One thing you have to take into consideration when adding total pt lines per quarter together....books have to keep in mind key numbers when putting those out so they rarely even out with the game total when added up. It really has nothing to do with shading the line towards the under. Because of where the game total sits at the single quarter numbers are adjusted around the numbers 13 or 14 based on what quarter it is and which quarters are higher scoring historically. The 2nd quarter is generally the highest scoring on avg. and the 1st is the lowest usually.
          "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

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          • #6
            Re: SB Prop that's quite interesting

            It seems Jack, at a quick glance, that the higher game totals are all about 3 points more than the added qtr scores but the lower totals almost work out to the original total. I guess maybe they are adjusted around the prime numbers more so and the linemaker is kinda handcuffed into some of those qtr scores ?

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            • #7
              Re: SB Prop that's quite interesting

              Originally posted by Thomas View Post
              It seems Jack, at a quick glance, that the higher game totals are all about 3 points more than the added qtr scores but the lower totals almost work out to the original total. I guess maybe they are adjusted around the prime numbers more so and the linemaker is kinda handcuffed into some of those qtr scores ?
              The books just kind of use common sense, knowing that 13 and 14 are very common combined point total for quarters. So they just work around those 2 numbers and adjust the juice. You are almost never going to see a 12 as a quarter line for example, they will use under 13 with heavier offset juice till they use 10.5 at (+100) for example. On the other end of the spectrum 14.5 is as high as NFL quarter lines ever go because the game lines just are never higher than 60 points.
              "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

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