NFL Playoffs 2017 - Super Bowl Props up

[jumperjack]

Re: NFL Playoffs 2017

This is my play in the early game, looks like I am rooting for a total blowout cause Miami isn't ready to play...

$400 Miami/Pittsburgh under 45.5 $WINNER$ (+400)

[jumperjack]

Re: NFL Playoffs 2017

Got this as my play in the late game...

$500 N.Y. Giants Team Total over 20 Packers' cornerbacks are to say the least banged up. Starting with #1 CB Sam Shields' season ending injury after the 1st week of the season, the injuries just kept coming all year. Demetri Goodson, Makinton Dorleant, Quinton Rollins, and Damarious Randall are 4 more corners the Pack has lost to injury this year, the last 3 happened just last week (though Randall is playing today). They are so thin at the position that they promoted Herb Waters from the practice squad Thursday this week. Waters was an undrafted free agent WR out of Miami Fla. that was turned into a corner and has been on the practice squad learning the position all year. He will be forced to play more than special teams this week because of the injury problems. The DB's have been suspect all season, and this week figures to be the weakest group they have put on the field all year. It won't take long for the Giants to find that weakness with their 3 WR sets they use every almost down. Someone among Odell Beckham Jr., Sheppard or Cruz will be open often. Manning just needs to find them and compleye the passes he missed in the first meeting. The Packers rely on blitzing to create their pass rush because the D-Line just is not equipped with pass rushers. The Giants have not been scoring much lately, but the Pack has been giving up points and passing yards in bunches to very average passing teams. Against the Bears they were healthier and Matt Barkley lit them up for 362 yards passing. The Vikings' Sam Bradford's dink and dunk passing attack amassed 382 yards passing with WR Adam Thielen going off for a career high 202 receiving yards and 2 TD's, including a 71 yarder. Last week Matt Stafford, handicapped with a splint on a passing hand finger, lit them up for 347 yards. Each of those teams topped this point total, and none have a WR trio as good as the Giants have. This figures to be a high scoring game, I lean towards the Giants and the over as plays as well, but I think this is the best way to play this game. Some of you with access to only a local that doesn't take team totals I would recommend a $400 play on the over and a $300 play on the Giants. LOSER (-550)

[jumperjack]

Re: NFL Playoffs 2017

Great weekend, but lost yet another big play on a Packers game. I should have just taken the over, Aaron Rodgers is in too much of a groove. No way I bet against Green Bay in Dallas no matter the line. That game has OVER written all over it.

[cubfan]

Re: NFL Playoffs 2017

Nice weekend!

[jumperjack]

Re: NFL Playoffs 2017

These are my plays today...

$400 Atlanta -4 (-117) $WINNER$ (+400)
$400 Houston +15.5 Yeah, I know, I know, Tom Brady is God in cleats, but this line is ridiculous. It is the NFL playoffs and Houston happens to have a GREAT DEFENSE. Osweiler is horrible, I get it, but grabbing this many points in a playoff game is simply a no-brainer. Despite the huge line, this will undoubtedly be the biggest one-way action game of the weekend, as crazy as that sounds. Just as a point of reference the Patriots were either a Pick 'em or a 1 pt. fav/dog when they met in week 3 with Tom Brady out and Jacoby Brissett starting. I don't care how good he is, Tom Brady is not worth a 14 point line swing. This is another line I can't see going up, sharp money will not allow this to get to 17. LOSER (-440)

[jumperjack]

Re: NFL Playoffs 2017

The way that Patriots game played out, it's hard to believe Houston didn't cover...

[jumperjack]

Re: NFL Playoffs 2017 - Div. Comp Up

Posted the Houston play yesterday about 2 hours before it kicked off so not many got to see, and it lost anyway. So this will be my comp play for the forum today. Immediate reaction after the game was no way I would take Dallas. That is also the majority feeling of the betting public today. After re-thinking and actually analyzing the match-up I changed my mind. Very easy to explain why. The Giants had no running game and their O-Line sucks, which gave Green Bay a very good match-up for their defense. The Giants failed to string together 1st downs and Green Bay ended up blowing out a tired Giants defense in the 2nd half. The opposite should happen here. Green Bay D still very vulnerable, that Cowboys O-Line will hammer away at them and by the 3rd quarter the Pack will not be able to stop them. I highly recommend 2nd half bets on the Cowboys team total if the 1st half is tightly played and Dallas has run the ball well in the first half.

$400 Dallas -4.5 LOSER (-440)

[Winningpix]

Re: NFL Playoffs 2017 - Div. Comp Up

Like the analysis Jumper, good write up

[jumperjack]

Re: NFL Playoffs 2017 - Div. Comp Up

Like the analysis Jumper, good write up

Thanks. To me there are 2 factors which are the most important in determining games' outcome, turnovers and who runs the ball the best. As long as Dallas doesn't turn the ball over their running game should be the deciding factor.

[jumperjack]

Re: NFL Playoffs 2017 - Div. Comp Up

Dallas totally outclassed today...

[jumperjack]

Re: NFL Playoffs 2017 - Div. Comp Up

Had this tonight..

$400 Kansas City -1.5 & $200 K.C. -2.5 LOSER (-660)

[jumperjack]

Re: NFL Playoffs 2017 - Div. Comp Up

These are my plays today...

$300 Green Bay +4.5 LOSER (-330)
$300 Green Bay/Atlanta over 60 $WINNER$ (+300)
$400 Pittsburgh +5.5 $WINNER$ (-440)

[MacDaddy33]

Re: NFL Playoffs 2017 - Div. Comp Up

JJ

Go Pitt

[captjoe388]

Re: NFL Playoffs 2017 - Div. Comp Up

You gave up on that over a little too early.

[jumperjack]

Re: NFL Playoffs 2017 - Div. Comp Up

Going to post all 3 of my player props on the forum as comps for the Super Bowl. I also have 5 team related plays which I will post after the game starts...

$200 Tevin Coleman over 32.5 receiving yds. (-110) The prop for Freeman's receiving yards is actually higher, despite Coleman averaging more yards per game played. Coleman had 421 yards in 13 games played (32.4 yards/game) and Freeman had 462 yards in 16 games played (28.9 yards/game). Patriots likely to double team Julio Jones so I expect the Atlanta backs to be busy. Patriots also allowed the most pass receptions to RB's in the NFL, which speaks to their defensive philosophy of not giving up the big play. LOSER (-220)

$200 Dion Lewis over 9.5 rushing attempts (-110) He had at least 11 attempts in 4 of the last 5 games since he has been healthy. Pats may take a more power running approach and hammer away with Blount, but there will be plenty of carries for Lewis, especially if the Pats win and are ahead late in the game. LOSER (-220)

$200 Martellus Bennett under 36.5 receiving yards (-110) Only once did Bennett reach this number in his last 9 games, and Gronk was out every one of those games. LOSER (-220)