28-14 so far in the 2016-17 Bowls (+$4,045), 10-4 on $400 plays...
Monday January 9th, 2017
$400 Alabama -6 (-118) Line just moved back to a flat 6.5 at 5Dimes this morning, going to take advantage in case it goes back up. Bought the half point to 6. After Clemson's completely dominant blowout win over Ohio St. the media and betting public are all thinking Clemson can beat Alabama this time around. I on the other hand view that Clemson win as a classic "played as good as they can" game. Most of you know what I feel about those kind of performances, it is the basis for my "Signature Total" handicapping theory for baseball. When a team plays their best, it not only is unusual to follow it up with a similarly "great" performance, it is nearly impossible. There is only one way to go from "best" and that is down. I'm not saying Clemson is going to come out stink the joint up Monday, just that they won't play as well. They will need their "best effort" to beat Alabama and I think they had that in their last game. Ever the perfectionist, Nick Saban was so displeased with his team's offense he told Kiffin to hit the bricks because he felt the offensive game plan/play calling was not up to his standards. I expect game day this line will be 7, if not, I am happy with the price I paid to get to 6. LOSER (-472)
$200 Bo Scarbrough over 85.5 Rushing Yards (-130) $WINNER$ (+200)
$200 DeShaun Watson under 54.5 Rushing Yards (Even) Both lines from sportsbook.ag, could have had Bo over at 83.5 (-155) at 5Dimes, chose the lower juice. Could have had Watson at 50.5 at 5Dimes and same juice, great example why multiple outs are needed for prop bets. If you believe Saban is a great coach (I do), then you have to believe one of the focuses of their prep was to keep Watson in the pocket. Their pass rush is so good this year that I think he will be under extreme pressure to hurry all night. Last year he stood back there and picked them apart for 405 yards passing. NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. He will get some yards rushing just on straight rushing plays, but scrambling is where he gets the bulk of his rushing. I don't believe he will be able to escape scrambling. $WINNER$ (+200)
Monday January 9th, 2017
$400 Alabama -6 (-118) Line just moved back to a flat 6.5 at 5Dimes this morning, going to take advantage in case it goes back up. Bought the half point to 6. After Clemson's completely dominant blowout win over Ohio St. the media and betting public are all thinking Clemson can beat Alabama this time around. I on the other hand view that Clemson win as a classic "played as good as they can" game. Most of you know what I feel about those kind of performances, it is the basis for my "Signature Total" handicapping theory for baseball. When a team plays their best, it not only is unusual to follow it up with a similarly "great" performance, it is nearly impossible. There is only one way to go from "best" and that is down. I'm not saying Clemson is going to come out stink the joint up Monday, just that they won't play as well. They will need their "best effort" to beat Alabama and I think they had that in their last game. Ever the perfectionist, Nick Saban was so displeased with his team's offense he told Kiffin to hit the bricks because he felt the offensive game plan/play calling was not up to his standards. I expect game day this line will be 7, if not, I am happy with the price I paid to get to 6. LOSER (-472)
$200 Bo Scarbrough over 85.5 Rushing Yards (-130) $WINNER$ (+200)
$200 DeShaun Watson under 54.5 Rushing Yards (Even) Both lines from sportsbook.ag, could have had Bo over at 83.5 (-155) at 5Dimes, chose the lower juice. Could have had Watson at 50.5 at 5Dimes and same juice, great example why multiple outs are needed for prop bets. If you believe Saban is a great coach (I do), then you have to believe one of the focuses of their prep was to keep Watson in the pocket. Their pass rush is so good this year that I think he will be under extreme pressure to hurry all night. Last year he stood back there and picked them apart for 405 yards passing. NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. He will get some yards rushing just on straight rushing plays, but scrambling is where he gets the bulk of his rushing. I don't believe he will be able to escape scrambling. $WINNER$ (+200)
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