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  • #61
    Re: Bowl Systems

    Sorry for the absence will be working on more tomorrow. GLTY!

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    • #62
      Re: Bowl Systems

      The Massey System....it is as simple as this.... play the better rated Massey defense in every bowl game ATS and a bit on money line for underdogs
      https://www.masseyratings.com/cf2019/fbs/ratings
      Negative is you're playing a lot of favs but you will never get buried by always playing the better defense (the lower number)


      12/20-12/26: TEAM on LEFT is "play on" ... if dog, like Fla Atlantic, you play both ATS and Money Line

      Buffalo 70 Charlotte 112
      Utah State 81 Kent 105
      San Diego St 11 C Michigan 97
      Ga Southern 56 Liberty 118
      Fla Atlantic 54 SMU 85
      Fla International 100 Arkansas St 109
      Washington 14 Boise St 31
      App State 37 UAB 73
      Central Fla 53 Marshall 61
      BYU 55 Hawaii 102
      Miami 39 La Tech 96
      Pitt 26 Eastern Mich 110
      Temple 45 North Carolina 62
      Michigan St 20 Wake Forest 77
      Texas a&m 21 Oklahoma St 34
      Iowa 3 USC 48
      Air Force 30 Washington St 84
      Notre Dame 15 Iowa St 33

      Penn St 7 Memphis 53
      LSU 12 Oklahoma 28
      Clemson 2 Ohio St 4

      W Kentucky 45 W Michigan 84
      California 17 Illinois 65
      Miss State 37 Louisville 102
      Florida 7 Virginia 62
      Kentucky 21 Va Tech 48
      Arizona St 27 Florida St 60
      Kansas St 33 Navy 43
      Wyoming 28 Georgia St 118
      Utah 9 Texas 44

      = 16-12-1 ATS 2019 bowl games


      REMINDER = after each game Massey ratings CHANGE because it takes into account your previous opponents and their previous opponents. SO the ones that are close (like UCF vs Marshall) need to be rechecked before game. Historically the best plays are when team defenses are separated by 30 or more, like FAU. play only through NYE games
      Last edited by rolltide; 01-02-2020, 09:39 AM.

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      • #63
        Re: Bowl Systems

        reposted below
        Last edited by rolltide; 12-26-2019, 11:56 AM.

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        • #64
          Re: Bowl Systems


          Bowl Totals:
          UNDER neutral non conf, high total combined >62 ppg and both good margins YTD (55-87 o/u = OSU/aTm u, Mem/PSU u,OSU/CLem u, ISU/ND u,UVA/Fla u, Tex/Utah u, Nav/KSt u,Mich/Ala u) note: 6-11, 4-8, 4-8 L3 years

          UNDER bog game diff of >10% WP and good defense (41-93 = Boi/Wash u, App/UAB u,LT/MIA u, Wake/MSU u,Tem/NC u,AF/WSU u, ND/ISU u,FLA/UVA u,Utah/Tex u, Navy/KSt u,Cin/BC u,Laf/MiaO u) note: only 1 of 13 years with more overs than unders

          UNDER DEC bowl dogs with good margin (34-65 o/u = OkSt/aTm u, Mem/PSU u,OSU/Clem u, ISU/ND u, UVa/Fla u, Tex/Utah u, Navy/Kst u) note: 3-9, 3-7, 3-6 L3 yr

          UNDER bg/po team avg 40+ ppg as fav or small dog in bowl with a total <=63 (3-25 o/u = UCF/Marsh u, ALA/Mich u,JMU/NDST u)

          UNDER 3+ straight overs, fav, and opponent not on 3+ straight unders (3-28 = Buf/Cha u,Ohio/Nev u)

          UNDER 40+ppg fav or dog<7 total<67 (10-40 = JM/NoIA u, NDST/IlSt u, JM/WEB u,UCF/Marsh u, Clem/OSU u, Ala/Mich u, JM/NDSU u) worst year went 1-1

          UNDER MAC midweek under (14-55 & 3-9 in bg = EMU/Pitt u, WMU/WKY u, MIAO/LAF u)

          UNDER off OT game scoring <65 and 31 or less rest (3-20 o/u = WF/MSU u, UGA/BAY u)

          UNDER good ppg defense after allowing >45 final game of season, playing good ppg defense (3-26 o/u = OSU/aTm u, UVA/Fla u, Ala/Mich u) note: 1-20 o/u if opponent allowed 15+ last game. All 3 games fit for 2019 and Bama/Mich is a double fit.


          Bowl Sides:
          VS bg favs off b2b losses (2-30 = play on Eastern Michigan) note: avg line is -5 and these teams are 9-24SU

          VS dec major conf favs of 8 or more vs opponent with 7 or less wins (6-28 = play on Eastern Michigan) note: 1-16 ATS L17 with only 9SU wins vs avg line of -11

          ON dec bg team off great rushing defense game (62-20 = on Wash,on LSU, on Fla, on Cal, on Texas, on Kansas St) BUT after 8 str8 years of no worse than 67% these went 1-4 LY

          ON bg off hfl but won 3+ before that (33-10 = play on Nevada) note: only 1 losing year in 14

          ON academy in bg vs opponent with 8+ wins (17-3 = play on Navy) note: 12-1 ATS L13

          ON DEC dog off b2b losses allowing <35 ppg (60-29 = play on Illinois) no losing season since 1997

          ON team off a champ gave fav win (42-9 = on FAU, on Boise, on AppSt, on Alcorn,on Memphis, on LSU) note: 1 losing year since 1991

          ON better rush po/bg team, better rush defense, no more than 10% higher WP, and fav of 3.5+ (39-10 = on JMAD (v Mon), on Buff, on GaSo, on Pitt,on UGA, on Miss St) note: 1-1 and 1-3 L2 yr

          ON 6 win bowl dog not off a blowout win (67-19 = play on Kent, FIU, E Mich, Wash St, Illini,and Florida St) last losing season 1997

          VS non-elite team allowing >25ppg, fav or small dog, and opponent off a loss (16-54 = play on BYU, on Nevada, on SoMiss) 2-4, 0-7, 1-3 L3 yr...worst year 1-1 in 1999

          ON 6-6 team that won last game and opponent positive ppg margin (44-19 =
          play on Kent, Mich St, UNC,Miss St, BC) 10-1 L11

          ON teams avg 36.5+ rushes vs opp avg 38.5+ passes (49-10 = play
          on Kent, on Air Force) note: 14-1 L15

          ON 33+/g rush teams with a lot of rest vs 30+/g Pac12 passing teams (16-1 =
          play on Iowa, on Air Force, on Florida St, on Wisconsin)

          ON bowlers that won just <=3 of final 8 games playing opp that won 3+ of final 8, low total <59 (43-12 =
          play on EMich, on Mich St, on Cal,on BC, on Tulane)

          Last edited by rolltide; 01-13-2020, 03:20 PM.

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          • #65
            Re: Bowl Systems

            rolltide...THANKS but can you edit and maKE THE TYPE LARGER? jUST cHECKING

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            • #66
              Re: Bowl Systems

              Originally posted by cashmoney View Post
              rolltide...THANKS but can you edit and maKE THE TYPE LARGER? jUST cHECKING
              I undeleted the original post. He didn't physically delete so I could recover it. That font size is much bigger

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              • #67
                Re: Bowl Systems

                Bowls, numbers only....most are bowl-specific but still have to run my favorite total system which is on my work computer (play under in game 7+ less total than each of L2 previous games). Will probably run again midweek


                Ball/SJSU under = 19-46 ou
                UAB/USCe under = 16-40 ou
                UK/NSCU under = 13-36 ou
                BUF/MAR under = 4-26 ou
                UGA/CIN under = 3-30 ou
                BYU/UCF under = 0-10 ou neutral fav<6.5 with 7-10 wins and >70 total




                44-102 ou system (6-16 ou L2 yr) unders in NEV, BYU, ULLAF, GaSt, Coastal, MIAFL, IOWA, TULSA, WVU, SJSU, NORW, CIN, aTm, NCST
                58-92 ou system (16-32 L4 yr) unders in NEV, MARSH, ULLAF, Coastal, MIAFL, BALL, OSU, ND, and ORE
                36-69 ou system (11-23 L4 yr) unders in NEV, MARSH, ULLAF, Coastal, MIAFL, BALL
                11-47 ou system unders in MARSH, TEX, CLEM, ALA


                vs FLA 4-31
                vs IOWA 16-40
                vs IOWA 6-29 (1-17 L18)
                on MIA FL 33-11
                on FAU, WAKE, MIZ, ARK 60-30
                on OU, CIN, OSU, CLEM, ALA 42-15 (just 4-7 L11)
                on UCF, BALL 70-23
                vs BUF 5-20
                on BYU 173-86

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                • #68
                  Re: Bowl Systems

                  Originally posted by rolltide View Post
                  Bowls, numbers only....most are bowl-specific but still have to run my favorite total system which is on my work computer (play under in game 7+ less total than each of L2 previous games).
                  UNDER total<69 which is 7+ less than either of L2 games (383-674 ou = MEM/FAU u, WAKE/WISC u) 19-35 ou 2020


                  VS game 6+ taems off their first loss of season which happened at home or neutral and did not turn opponent over 3+ times (8-44 = on Marsh, on Ala)

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                  • #69
                    Re: Bowl Systems

                    Massey ratings...LY 16-12 ATS after a strong finish (play better defense ATS in every game, add some ML if a dog) ... remember that if a ranking is close check back just before the game because earlier bowl games will influence the rankings. These rankings are as of 12/22 for games through sunday

                    https://www.masseyratings.com/cf2020/fbs/ratings


                    App State 48 vs No Texas 127
                    Nevada 61 vs Tulane 70
                    BYU 29 vs UCF 82
                    Ga So 78 vs La Tech 90
                    Memphis 83 vs FAU 50
                    Hawaii 96 vs Houston 87
                    Buffalo 95 vs Marshall 47
                    Coastal 54 vs Liberty 89
                    UL Laf 53 vs UTSA 101
                    Ga State 110 vs W Ky 73
                    Okla State 17 vs Miami Fl 33
                    Colorado 56 vs Texas 43
                    Wisconsin 3 vs Wake Forest 70
                    Florida 27 vs Oklahoma 14
                    Army 37 vs West Va 20
                    Tulsa 30 vs Miss St 19
                    Ball St 88 vs San Jose St 42
                    Cincy 17 vs Georgia 2
                    Auburn 8 vs Northwestern 1
                    Alabama 6 vs Notre Dame 10
                    Clemson 5 vs Ohio State 7
                    Kentucky 16 vs NC State 67
                    Indiana 12 vs Ole Miss 83
                    Iowa State 11 vs Oregon 18
                    UNC vs Texas a&m 9
                    Last edited by rolltide; 12-31-2020, 08:09 PM.

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                    • #70
                      Re: Bowl Systems

                      Thanks for posting this information

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                      • #71
                        Re: Bowl Systems

                        add...

                        30-70 ou = UNDER Bowl or Playoff game with fav (or no more than 1pt dog) avg >37.5 ppg, opponent >22ppg and didn't win 11+ LY (BYU u, Buffalo u, Texas u)


                        tightener of above:
                        underdog avg >39.67 ppg (0-13 ou = BYU/UCF under)
                        note: these have gone under by avg of 14.54 ppg with avg of 35-20 win for favorite. Only once has the dog scored above their season average in ppg

                        add another....

                        2-22 o/u = UNDER postseason neither offense >28 ppg, fav didn't win 14+LY and dog didn't just allow 34 (TUL/MST u, WVU/ARMY u, NW/AUB u) ... avg 36ppg vs 46 total
                        Last edited by rolltide; 12-22-2020, 09:23 PM.

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                        • #72
                          Re: Bowl Systems

                          rolltide,

                          I'm missing something. I'm not seeing your numbers. Any idea on what I missed?

                          For underdog avg >39.67 ppg:
                          https://sportsdatabase.com/ncaafb/qu...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

                          neither offense >28 ppg, fav didn't win 14+LY and dog didn't just allow 34:
                          https://sportsdatabase.com/ncaafb/qu...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

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                          • #73
                            Re: Bowl Systems

                            yes there's other parameters that go into it. i just provide a general overview of the main conditions that set the system up. and that one for high scoring dog is an extension of the one above so you need to put in the fav averages >37.5 to start with...
                            Last edited by rolltide; 12-24-2020, 03:19 PM.

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                            • #74
                              BOWL UNDER high scoring fav or small dog with total <67 in bowl or playoffs (11-45 ou = CSTC/NoILL u, PIT/MSU u, ALA/CIN u, OSU/UTAH u)

                              BOWL UNDER with over streaking fav and 45.5-64.5 total (3-30 ou = TOL/MTSU u, BYU/UAB u, MIA/NTX u, PIT/MSU u)

                              BOWL PLAY ON bowl teams not 10+ dogs that won conf champ as fav or tiny dog (37-9 ATS = on PITT, UTAH)

                              BOWL OPPOSE bowl favs off b2b losses (27-50 ATS = on EMU, ECU, HOU, SMU)

                              BOWL ON bowl team off home fav loss but 3+ straight wins before that (32-11 ATS = on SD ST)

                              BOWL ON DEC dog off b2b losses, allow <35 ppg (47-26 ATS = on TXT, SMU)

                              BOWL ON DEC bowlers that won just <=3 of final 8 games playing opp that won 3+ of final 8, total<58 (43-16 ATS = on FLA, BC, AUB, LOU, MARY)

                              BOWL ON teams avg 36.5+ rushes vs opp avg 38.5+ passes(50-22 ATS = on APP, UTEP, WMU, MSU, TEN)

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                              • #75
                                BOWL UNDER teams covering 0-1 of L6 games (7-26 ou = CC/NIL u, LIB/EMU u, SDSU/UTSA u, FLA/UCF u, MD/VT u, IA/UK u) 'wins': 7, 'losses': 26, 'margin': -17

                                some statfox trends and stats:

                                Toledo is #7 in YPP differential (+1.74 YPP), on top of #2 away from home (+2.12 YPP) vs. Mid. Tenn. who got out-gained by 1.34 YPP vs. teams over .500
                                Northern Illinois is 1-8 OU in the 1Q of the L9 games
                                UAB has 5 straight ATS W’s on the road (6-1 ATS away from home TY)
                                Marshall is 5-1 ATS away from home ... #7 in YPG away/neutral (477) ... #5 in PPG away/neutral (38.8) ... #5 in YPP away/neutral (6.93)
                                Utah State has thrived away from home, they are 6-1 ATS ... covering by 16.7 PPG ... #9 in YPG differential (+132.6) ... #5 in PPG differential (+17.4) ... #17 in YPP differential (+1.15)
                                UTSA is #12 in PPG TY (37.8) but their SOS is #120 ... resulting in 5-1 OU in the L6 ... 7-1 OU in the 1H of the L8 ... 9-1 OU in the 1Q of the L10
                                North Texas is without question the fastest paced team in the FBS ... #1 in plays/game (away/neutral site & in the FBS) ... #1 in plays/minute (away/neutral site) & #2 in plays/minute in the FBS
                                L4 overall Auburn has averaged just 19 PPG (10.6 points less then their season avg.)
                                Mississippi State has been better in almost every statistical category away from home TY ... PPG, YPG, YPP, PPG allowed, YPG allowed & YPP allowed
                                Oregon has been solid against teams over .500 (7 games vs. just 4 for Oklahoma) ... #49 in YPG (391.7) → Oklahoma is #73 ... #27 in YPP (5.99) → Oklahoma is #49
                                Maryland is 2-6 ATS in the L8 ... allowing 40.25 PPG
                                Clemson is 4-1 ATS in the L5 (after starting 0-7) ... have scored at least 30 points in previous 5 games
                                South Carolina has struggled away from home ... getting out-gained by 105.3 MORE YPG away from home ... outscored by 13.4 MORE PPG away from home ... getting out-gained by 1.18 MORE YPP away from home
                                Tennessee has struggled defensively against teams over .500 ... allowing 516 YPG (#121) & 41.4 PPG (#114)
                                Wake Forest is allowing 22 plays per game of 10+ yards
                                Central Michigan has covered 4 straight games ... covering by 18.125 PPG on average
                                Notre Dame has covered 7 straight games ... also 7-0 in the 1H of the L7 ATS
                                Ohio State defense has struggled in comparison to Utah against teams over .500 ... OSU = #61 in YPG allowed (416) vs. Utah @ #10 ... OSU = #35 in PPG allowed (28.3) vs. Utah @ #10 ... OSU = #58 in YPP allowed (5.94) vs. Utah @ #15
                                LSU has struggled away from home ... allowing 69.6 more YPG away from home vs. season average ... allowing 5.9 more PPG away from home vs. season average ... allowing 0.92 more YPP away from home vs. season average
                                Last edited by rolltide; 12-15-2021, 10:14 PM.

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