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  • #46
    Re: Bowl Systems

    Originally posted by illini23 View Post
    Once again THANKS for doing this Elwood

    what Illini said
    Twitter @winningpix1
    Last Season NFL 96-71-7 +$3750

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    • #47
      Re: Bowl Systems

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      • #48
        Re: Bowl Systems

        Play on any College Bowl team that lost their Bowl game the previous year by 30 or more points.

        UAB -2.5 WIN
        Toledo -5.5 LOSS
        Virgina +4
        Last edited by elwood; 12-28-2018, 09:38 AM.

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        • #49
          Re: Bowl Systems

          Fade the Heisman Winner:

          Kyler Murray -- Play Bama -14

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          • #50
            Re: Bowl Systems

            my list.....

            BOWL under better winning % team as a small dog or a favorite (40-87 o/u = Memphis u, Boise u, Wash St u, Stanford u, Missouri u, Cincy u, Ohio St u, Georgia u)



            BOWL under big total, decent teams both scoring well on year (44-77 o/u = FIU u, Houston u, Boise u, Duke u, Syracuse u, Wash St u, Nevada u, NCST u, Cincy u, Ohio St u, Georgia u, LSU u)



            BOWL similar to above (25-54 o/u = FIU u, Houston u, Boise u, Purdue u, Nevada u, Wash St u, Clemson u, UVA u, NCST u)



            BOWL play on December bowl teams with great rush defense last game (73-23 = on Ohio, Toledo, Miami, NCST, Oregon, Missouri)



            BOWL play on teams not favored by 3+ scores that were hot before losing their last game as a home fav (33-9 = on Boise, on Wash St)



            BOWL oppose teams with far more rest than opponent and big disparity in winning percentage (22-46 = play on Army)



            BOWL PLAY ON big dog (7.5+) in december bowl games <.750 vs <.750 teams if opponent didn't cover final regular season game by more than a TD (43-17 = on W Mich)



            BOWL OPPOSE power-5 favs of 8+ in december bowl game (16-37 = on Okie St)

            vs teams with <8 wins = 6-27 = on Okie St (1-15 L16)



            BOWL PLAY ON academies in bowl games vs opponent 8+ wins (16-3 = on Army)



            BOWL total <64 with high scoring fav (3-22 o/u = Ohio u, Toledo u, Ohio St u)



            BOWL PLAY ON single digit dogs with good defense that ended season poorly (57-27 = on SD St, So Fla, La Tech, BC, Duke, UVA, Pitt)



            BOWL PLAY ON favs that won their conf title game and played 28 or less days ago (38-8 = on Buffalo, on Clemson, on Alabama)



            BOWL PLAY ON big fav better running team, better run defense, worse or similar WP (37-6 = on Toledo, Temple, Michigan, Clemson, Utah)



            BOWL OPPOSE big favs, far worse rushing team but better rush defense (1-16 = play on W Mich, on Oklahoma, on Pitt, on UCF)



            BOWL PLAY ON 6-win DEC dogs with no more than 7 days extra rest than opponent who has >6 wins (66-18 = on Minn, Purdue, Okie St)



            BOWL OPPOSE bowl team on big ATS streak in a game above 9 (3-16 = play on W Mich)



            BOWL PLAY ON bowl favs that won conf champ <29 days ago (41-8 = play on Clemson, on Alabama) = already 4-0 this year



            BOWL UNDER with over streaking fav and normal total (3-27 o/u = Ohio St u)



            BOWL PLAY ON teams that lost their conf title game by 7 or less playing opponent >60% WP (18-4 = on Buffalo, on Utah, on Georgia)



            BOWL OPPOSE fav or small dog with bad defense playing a team that lost their last game (15-50 = play on Marshall, FIU, La Tech, Boise, UVA, Nevada)



            BOWL UNDER high scoring fav or small dog with total <67 in bowl or playoffs (6-33 o/u = Ohio u, Toledo u, Houston u, Clemson u, Ohio St u)

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            • #51
              Re: Bowl Systems

              Originally posted by elwood View Post
              Play on a Bowl team that allows more than 29 points per game on the season, if they are a double-digit dog:

              W. Mich +12
              Oklahoma +14
              pull that back to 8+ and sets Western Michigan and Okie St in a 20-4 ATS situation. OU doesn't count as it is a playoff game and not a bowl game in the database, http://killersports.com/ncaafb/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

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              • #52
                Re: Bowl Systems

                Originally posted by elwood View Post
                Bet the dog if they have the same W/L record:

                Wisky -- +4
                Baylor -- +3.5
                Virginia -- +4
                Iowa -- +6
                Kentucky -- +6
                last 8 years much better to bet the favorite in this situation, not the dog.... http://killersports.com/ncaafb/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

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                • #53
                  Re: Bowl Systems

                  Originally posted by elwood View Post
                  Teams playing their 14th game of the season against a team playing their 13th game of the season (basically the 14th game team played a Championship game, the opponent did not), and are a favorite in a December Bowl game, are 16-27 ATS as well as 25-7 to the under. Most of the 14th game teams playing in December, lost their Championship game, so this becomes a letdown game, while their opponent sees it more as a big game trying to beat a team that played in a Championship game, and as a dog, will be motivated for a much bigger win than their opponent would view it.

                  Buffalo -2.5
                  Boise S. -2.5

                  basically just a coin flip, http://killersports.com/ncaafb/query...output=summary

                  64-66 ATS all-time

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                  • #54
                    Re: Bowl Systems

                    Originally posted by rolltide View Post
                    my list.....

                    BOWL under better winning % team as a small dog or a favorite (40-87 o/u = Memphis u, Boise u, Wash St u, Stanford u, Missouri u, Cincy u, Ohio St u, Georgia u)



                    BOWL under big total, decent teams both scoring well on year (44-77 o/u = FIU u, Houston u, Boise u, Duke u, Syracuse u, Wash St u, Nevada u, NCST u, Cincy u, Ohio St u, Georgia u, LSU u)



                    BOWL similar to above (25-54 o/u = FIU u, Houston u, Boise u, Purdue u, Nevada u, Wash St u, Clemson u, UVA u, NCST u)



                    BOWL play on December bowl teams with great rush defense last game (73-23 = on Ohio, Toledo, Miami, NCST, Oregon, Missouri)



                    BOWL play on teams not favored by 3+ scores that were hot before losing their last game as a home fav (33-9 = on Boise, on Wash St)



                    BOWL oppose teams with far more rest than opponent and big disparity in winning percentage (22-46 = play on Army)



                    BOWL PLAY ON big dog (7.5+) in december bowl games <.750 vs <.750 teams if opponent didn't cover final regular season game by more than a TD (43-17 = on W Mich)



                    BOWL OPPOSE power-5 favs of 8+ in december bowl game (16-37 = on Okie St)

                    vs teams with <8 wins = 6-27 = on Okie St (1-15 L16)



                    BOWL PLAY ON academies in bowl games vs opponent 8+ wins (16-3 = on Army)



                    BOWL total <64 with high scoring fav (3-22 o/u = Ohio u, Toledo u, Ohio St u)



                    BOWL PLAY ON single digit dogs with good defense that ended season poorly (57-27 = on SD St, So Fla, La Tech, BC, Duke, UVA, Pitt)



                    BOWL PLAY ON favs that won their conf title game and played 28 or less days ago (38-8 = on Buffalo, on Clemson, on Alabama)



                    BOWL PLAY ON big fav better running team, better run defense, worse or similar WP (37-6 = on Toledo, Temple, Michigan, Clemson, Utah)



                    BOWL OPPOSE big favs, far worse rushing team but better rush defense (1-16 = play on W Mich, on Oklahoma, on Pitt, on UCF)



                    BOWL PLAY ON 6-win DEC dogs with no more than 7 days extra rest than opponent who has >6 wins (66-18 = on Minn, Purdue, Okie St)



                    BOWL OPPOSE bowl team on big ATS streak in a game above 9 (3-16 = play on W Mich)



                    BOWL PLAY ON bowl favs that won conf champ <29 days ago (41-8 = play on Clemson, on Alabama) = already 4-0 this year



                    BOWL UNDER with over streaking fav and normal total (3-27 o/u = Ohio St u)



                    BOWL PLAY ON teams that lost their conf title game by 7 or less playing opponent >60% WP (18-4 = on Buffalo, on Utah, on Georgia)



                    BOWL OPPOSE fav or small dog with bad defense playing a team that lost their last game (15-50 = play on Marshall, FIU, La Tech, Boise, UVA, Nevada)



                    BOWL UNDER high scoring fav or small dog with total <67 in bowl or playoffs (6-33 o/u = Ohio u, Toledo u, Houston u, Clemson u, Ohio St u)
                    Thanks for your work
                    Twitter @winningpix1
                    Last Season NFL 96-71-7 +$3750

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      Re: Bowl Systems

                      Originally posted by Winningpix View Post
                      Thanks for your work


                      another:

                      BOWL OPPOSE double digit fav that was big dog in last game (1-10 = play on W Mich, on Texas)
                      http://killersports.com/ncaafb/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

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                      • #56
                        Re: Bowl Systems

                        PLAY ON later season bowl dog off a fav loss vs opponent off 2+ straight wins, the last win by 6+ (30-5 = on Duke, Nevada, Okie St)
                        note: 12 straight covers (10-2 SU) including 2 covers last year with ND and Miss St winning outright over LSU and Louisville

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                        • #57
                          Re: Bowl Systems

                          one today, one tomorrow

                          PLAY ON late bowl season dogs allowing <33 ppg in bad form vs fav in good form (54-16 ATS = on Minn, on Duke, on Mich St, on Va Tech)
                          note: avg line +6.5 and dog has won SU 53% of the games

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                          • #58
                            Re: Bowl Systems

                            SOS:

                            Ohio St. +2
                            Kansas St. +2.5
                            Kentucky +2.5

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                            • #59
                              Re: Bowl Systems

                              Running Dogs

                              FUI +2.5
                              Boise St +3.5
                              Ohio St. +2

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                              • #60
                                Re: Bowl Systems

                                December Bowls of +7.5 dogs

                                UAB +17
                                Marshall +17
                                E. Mich +11.5
                                Okla +14
                                Virg +14.5

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