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College Football Bowl Plays 2016-17
Finished the regular season 108-94 in CFB (+$1,193). Finished CFB Bowls for 2015-16 with a 22-13 record (+$2,310), and was 7-1 on bowl totals.
Saturday December 17th, 2016
$300 Texas-San Antonio+7 $WINNER$ (+300)
$400 Houston/San Diego St. under 54.5 $WINNER$ (+400)
$400 Arkansas St./UCF under 49.5 $WINNER$ (+400)
$300 Appalachian St. +1.5 I mentioned several times in analysis recently of MAC games that Toledo's main weakness is stopping the run. The Appalachian St. D is far superior to Toledo's and their own offense should control the TOP by running against the weak Toledo run D. Appl. St finished 14th in the country with 247.1 yards rushing/game, and that is just what they will do all day. This should be a great game, though I will take the better defense and the better running team here as a dog. Toledo will also likely be the public betting favorite, which is just icing on the cake. $WINNER$ (+300)
$300 La. Lafayette +5 LOSER (-330)
Monday December 19th, 2016
$300 C. Michigan +12.5 LOSER (-330)
Tuesday December 20th, 2016
$400 W. Kentucky -6.5 Big statistical advantage for WKU here as they were +48.4 yds/game against fellow bowlers and Memphis was -107.4 yards/game against the bowl teams they faced. Memphis D is just plain bad and should provide little resistance against one of the best offenses in the country (518 yds/game). Also have to be skeptical about how good the AAC is after both UCF and Houston looked awful in their bowl games. $WINNER$ (+400)
Wednesday December 21st, 2016
$300 Wyoming +10 $WINNER$ (+300)
$300 BYU/Wyoming over 57.5 Gotta love a bowl virgin getting DD points, and Wyoming proved their mettle in 2 late season meetings against S.D. St who looked great against Houston. If Wyoming can hang with that level competition they should be able to against BYU whose run defense is comparable to the Aztecs'. Some will expect a let-down for Wyoming after they lost their Conf. Champ game, their bowl virginity insures they show up excited. None of these kids has ever been to a bowl game, meanwhile BYU goes every year! LOSER (-330)
Thursday December 22nd, 2016
$300 Idaho +13 Another bowl virgin getting DD points. They are also basically the home team here on the "Blue Carpet". Weather may also be a factor, but all that usually does is close the gap between talent levels. $WINNER$ (+300)
Friday December 23rd, 2016
$300 E. Michigan +4.5 $WINNER$ (+300)
$300 E. Michigan/Old Dominion under 63.5 $WINNER$ (+300)
$400 La. Tech/Navy over 67 $WINNER$ (+400)
$300 Troy -4 $WINNER$ (+300)
Saturday December 24th, 2016
$300 Mid. Tenn. St. -7 (-115) LOSER (-345)
Monday December 26th, 2016
$300 Miami Ohio +14.5 $WINNER$ (+300)
$300 Vanderbilt/N.C. State under 44.5 LOSER (-330)
Tuesday December 27th, 2016
$400 No. Texas/Army under 48.5 LOSER (-440)
$300 Wake Forest +12 $WINNER$ (+300)
$300 Wake Forest/Temple under 40.5 LOSER (-330)
$300 Minnesota +10 $WINNER$ (+300)
$400 Baylor/Boise St. under 67 $WINNER$ (+400)
Wednesday December 28th, 2016
$400 Northwestern +4.5 $WINNER$ (+400)
$300 Miami Fla. -2.5 $WINNER$ (+300)
$300 W. Virginia/Miami under 57.5 $WINNER$ (+300)
$400 Utah/Indiana under 54.5 $WINNER$ (+400)
Thursday December 29th, 2016
$300 South Carolina/South Florida under 62 LOSER (-330)
$300 Va. Tech -6.5 (-115) $WINNER$ (+300)
$500 Colorado -3 Bowl virgin will be highly motivated, can't really say the same thing about Oklahoma St. though. The big difference in this game is the Buffaloes Top 5 ranked pass D going against the Cowboys highly ranked passing offense. Colorado pass D is by far the best Ok. St. have faced all year, it's not even close. Based on my power rankings I have Colorado -6, so we have line value as well. Public money is actually leaning with the underdog here, I have no idea why. Oklahoma St. did well in games will small lines (teams they were closely matched against), but I have zero respect for any of those teams...Texas, TCU, K. State, Pittsburgh and West Virginia...2 of those teams got badly out-played today by teams lesser than Colorado. LOSER (-550)
Friday December 30th, 2016
$300 Georgia +3.5 (-115) $WINNER$ (+300)
$300 TCU/Georgia under 48.5 Hard for me to figure out this big line move, it has always been my policy to ignore line moves, generally I bet before they happen. I considered the TCU team total under, but this combo bet basically accomplishes that. Just can't see the feeble TCU offense doing much here, and I have been burned too much this season chasing TCU I am destined to play Georgia here. I'd be surprised if I do worse than split these. LOSER (-330)
$400 North Carolina +2.5 $WINNER$ (+400)
$300 Air Force -14 $WINNER$ (+300)
$300 Nebraska +7 LOSER (-330)
$300 Florida St. +7 (-115) $WINNER$ (+300)
$300 Michigan/Florida St. under 51 LOSER (-330)
Saturday December 31st, 2016
$400 LSU -3 (-115) $WINNER$ (+400)
$400 Kentucky +3.5 (-115) LOSER (-460)
$300 Kentucky/Georgia Tech over 63.5 LOSER (-330)
$400 Washington +14 LOSER (-440)
$300 Clemson/Ohio St. under 59 $WINNER$ (+300)
Monday January 2nd, 2017
$400 Iowa Team Total under 19 (-115) Florida D much healthier now than when they finished the season. Iowa offense I think compares favorably to Georgia's...BAD. Against the Gators, Georgia managed just 164 total yards, an almost unheard of total for college football these days. In the 3 games Iowa played against top level defenses this is what they did...vs. Wisconsin - 236 yards....vs. Michigan - 230 yards...vs. Penn St. - 234 yards. In those 3 games they scored 9, 14, and 14 points. Expect a similar result here. $WINNER$ (+400)
$400 Wisconsin -7.5 Just getting this in now. Of all the lines posted it is the one I am most confident will move. I may actually end up playing W. Michigan, but if I do I expect that line to be at least +10. Just off the top of my head, I think the Badgers will be able to run at will against the Broncos. The Badger secondary may have trouble matching up with #1 WR Corey Davis who is NFL bound. The key to the game will likely be if W. Michigan can block the Badger's pass rush. The over may actually end up being the best play on this game once they post a total. This may end up just being a middle opp. hard to say right now...Keeping this play. One of the most important things I use when handicapping a bowl game is compare how they did statistically against the other bowl teams they faced. Western Michigan actually ranked 10th in net yards against fellow bowlers, +97.2 yards/game. Wisconsin also fared pretty decent with a +27.9 yards/game. The list of the bowl teams the Broncos faced though includes Northwestern, C. Michigan, E. Michigan, Toledo, and Ohio U. Wisconsin meanwhile faced as tough a schedule as any team in the country with LSU, Michigan, Ohio St., Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern, Minnesota, and Penn St. The difference in strength of schedule is by far the biggest of any bowl match-up, and I think that will be the difference. Western Michigan likes to run the ball, they averaged 46 rushes/game vs. 27 passes/game. They will not be able to run against Wisconsin, just not going to happen. Their QB has fantastic numbers, but he is used to playing from ahead of the chains with an effective running game. That becomes a little different when you are forced into 3rd and long every series. If he avoids turning the ball over they have a chance to keep it close, if not, this will not be close. $WINNER$ (+400)
$300 Penn St. +7.5 (-120) $WINNER$ (+300)
$400 Auburn +3 (-120) LOSER (-480)
$300 Oklahoma/Auburn under 65 $WINNER$ (+300)
Saturday December 17th, 2016
$300 Texas-San Antonio+7 $WINNER$ (+300)
$400 Houston/San Diego St. under 54.5 $WINNER$ (+400)
$400 Arkansas St./UCF under 49.5 $WINNER$ (+400)
$300 Appalachian St. +1.5 I mentioned several times in analysis recently of MAC games that Toledo's main weakness is stopping the run. The Appalachian St. D is far superior to Toledo's and their own offense should control the TOP by running against the weak Toledo run D. Appl. St finished 14th in the country with 247.1 yards rushing/game, and that is just what they will do all day. This should be a great game, though I will take the better defense and the better running team here as a dog. Toledo will also likely be the public betting favorite, which is just icing on the cake. $WINNER$ (+300)
$300 La. Lafayette +5 LOSER (-330)
Monday December 19th, 2016
$300 C. Michigan +12.5 LOSER (-330)
Tuesday December 20th, 2016
$400 W. Kentucky -6.5 Big statistical advantage for WKU here as they were +48.4 yds/game against fellow bowlers and Memphis was -107.4 yards/game against the bowl teams they faced. Memphis D is just plain bad and should provide little resistance against one of the best offenses in the country (518 yds/game). Also have to be skeptical about how good the AAC is after both UCF and Houston looked awful in their bowl games. $WINNER$ (+400)
Wednesday December 21st, 2016
$300 Wyoming +10 $WINNER$ (+300)
$300 BYU/Wyoming over 57.5 Gotta love a bowl virgin getting DD points, and Wyoming proved their mettle in 2 late season meetings against S.D. St who looked great against Houston. If Wyoming can hang with that level competition they should be able to against BYU whose run defense is comparable to the Aztecs'. Some will expect a let-down for Wyoming after they lost their Conf. Champ game, their bowl virginity insures they show up excited. None of these kids has ever been to a bowl game, meanwhile BYU goes every year! LOSER (-330)
Thursday December 22nd, 2016
$300 Idaho +13 Another bowl virgin getting DD points. They are also basically the home team here on the "Blue Carpet". Weather may also be a factor, but all that usually does is close the gap between talent levels. $WINNER$ (+300)
Friday December 23rd, 2016
$300 E. Michigan +4.5 $WINNER$ (+300)
$300 E. Michigan/Old Dominion under 63.5 $WINNER$ (+300)
$400 La. Tech/Navy over 67 $WINNER$ (+400)
$300 Troy -4 $WINNER$ (+300)
Saturday December 24th, 2016
$300 Mid. Tenn. St. -7 (-115) LOSER (-345)
Monday December 26th, 2016
$300 Miami Ohio +14.5 $WINNER$ (+300)
$300 Vanderbilt/N.C. State under 44.5 LOSER (-330)
Tuesday December 27th, 2016
$400 No. Texas/Army under 48.5 LOSER (-440)
$300 Wake Forest +12 $WINNER$ (+300)
$300 Wake Forest/Temple under 40.5 LOSER (-330)
$300 Minnesota +10 $WINNER$ (+300)
$400 Baylor/Boise St. under 67 $WINNER$ (+400)
Wednesday December 28th, 2016
$400 Northwestern +4.5 $WINNER$ (+400)
$300 Miami Fla. -2.5 $WINNER$ (+300)
$300 W. Virginia/Miami under 57.5 $WINNER$ (+300)
$400 Utah/Indiana under 54.5 $WINNER$ (+400)
Thursday December 29th, 2016
$300 South Carolina/South Florida under 62 LOSER (-330)
$300 Va. Tech -6.5 (-115) $WINNER$ (+300)
$500 Colorado -3 Bowl virgin will be highly motivated, can't really say the same thing about Oklahoma St. though. The big difference in this game is the Buffaloes Top 5 ranked pass D going against the Cowboys highly ranked passing offense. Colorado pass D is by far the best Ok. St. have faced all year, it's not even close. Based on my power rankings I have Colorado -6, so we have line value as well. Public money is actually leaning with the underdog here, I have no idea why. Oklahoma St. did well in games will small lines (teams they were closely matched against), but I have zero respect for any of those teams...Texas, TCU, K. State, Pittsburgh and West Virginia...2 of those teams got badly out-played today by teams lesser than Colorado. LOSER (-550)
Friday December 30th, 2016
$300 Georgia +3.5 (-115) $WINNER$ (+300)
$300 TCU/Georgia under 48.5 Hard for me to figure out this big line move, it has always been my policy to ignore line moves, generally I bet before they happen. I considered the TCU team total under, but this combo bet basically accomplishes that. Just can't see the feeble TCU offense doing much here, and I have been burned too much this season chasing TCU I am destined to play Georgia here. I'd be surprised if I do worse than split these. LOSER (-330)
$400 North Carolina +2.5 $WINNER$ (+400)
$300 Air Force -14 $WINNER$ (+300)
$300 Nebraska +7 LOSER (-330)
$300 Florida St. +7 (-115) $WINNER$ (+300)
$300 Michigan/Florida St. under 51 LOSER (-330)
Saturday December 31st, 2016
$400 LSU -3 (-115) $WINNER$ (+400)
$400 Kentucky +3.5 (-115) LOSER (-460)
$300 Kentucky/Georgia Tech over 63.5 LOSER (-330)
$400 Washington +14 LOSER (-440)
$300 Clemson/Ohio St. under 59 $WINNER$ (+300)
Monday January 2nd, 2017
$400 Iowa Team Total under 19 (-115) Florida D much healthier now than when they finished the season. Iowa offense I think compares favorably to Georgia's...BAD. Against the Gators, Georgia managed just 164 total yards, an almost unheard of total for college football these days. In the 3 games Iowa played against top level defenses this is what they did...vs. Wisconsin - 236 yards....vs. Michigan - 230 yards...vs. Penn St. - 234 yards. In those 3 games they scored 9, 14, and 14 points. Expect a similar result here. $WINNER$ (+400)
$400 Wisconsin -7.5 Just getting this in now. Of all the lines posted it is the one I am most confident will move. I may actually end up playing W. Michigan, but if I do I expect that line to be at least +10. Just off the top of my head, I think the Badgers will be able to run at will against the Broncos. The Badger secondary may have trouble matching up with #1 WR Corey Davis who is NFL bound. The key to the game will likely be if W. Michigan can block the Badger's pass rush. The over may actually end up being the best play on this game once they post a total. This may end up just being a middle opp. hard to say right now...Keeping this play. One of the most important things I use when handicapping a bowl game is compare how they did statistically against the other bowl teams they faced. Western Michigan actually ranked 10th in net yards against fellow bowlers, +97.2 yards/game. Wisconsin also fared pretty decent with a +27.9 yards/game. The list of the bowl teams the Broncos faced though includes Northwestern, C. Michigan, E. Michigan, Toledo, and Ohio U. Wisconsin meanwhile faced as tough a schedule as any team in the country with LSU, Michigan, Ohio St., Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern, Minnesota, and Penn St. The difference in strength of schedule is by far the biggest of any bowl match-up, and I think that will be the difference. Western Michigan likes to run the ball, they averaged 46 rushes/game vs. 27 passes/game. They will not be able to run against Wisconsin, just not going to happen. Their QB has fantastic numbers, but he is used to playing from ahead of the chains with an effective running game. That becomes a little different when you are forced into 3rd and long every series. If he avoids turning the ball over they have a chance to keep it close, if not, this will not be close. $WINNER$ (+400)
$300 Penn St. +7.5 (-120) $WINNER$ (+300)
$400 Auburn +3 (-120) LOSER (-480)
$300 Oklahoma/Auburn under 65 $WINNER$ (+300)
Hope you have a strong bowl season.
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