MLB Betting Info. 4/3

[NYK]

Re: MLB Betting Info. 4/3

2016 Los Angeles Dodgers Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series
by Alan Matthews

Normally a manager with three straight National League West titles on his resume gets a raise, not a pink slip. But the Los Angeles Dodgers aren't your typical franchise, and when you have the highest payroll in league history, more is expected than just a division flag.

The Dodgers did win the West for a third straight season in 2015 with a 92-70 record, eight games ahead of second-place San Francisco. They were the NL pennant favorites entering the postseason, as any team with Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke should be. However, Kershaw lost Game 1 of the NLDS at home to the Mets, and Greinke took the defeat in the clinching Game 5 at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers have now gone nine postseason appearances without a trip to the World Series, tying the all-time mark (Athletics and Braves).

Yet another season short of a World Series, which the Dodgers haven't played in since winning in 1988, was the final straw for the front office. So Manager Don Mattingly was let go. His regular-season record was great, but the Dodgers won just one postseason series under him. They were 8-11 overall in the playoffs under Mattingly.

Instead of going the big-name route to replace Mattingly, the team gave former big-league outfielder Dave Roberts his first managerial job in a minor surprise over favorite Gabe Kapler. Roberts is the first minority manager of the team that broke baseball's color barrier. One allure of Roberts reportedly was the belief he would instill more of a business-like atmosphere in the clubhouse like the Yankees used to have with Joe Torre. Roberts is the son of a U.S. Marine, so he knows all about rules.

Los Angeles opens the season April 4 at San Diego.

Dodgers 2016 Projected Lineup

When the Rookie of the Year odds come out, the heavy National League favorite will be Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager, who will lead off. He's the No. 1 prospect in baseball and hit .337 with four homers and 17 RBIs in 98 late-season at-bats in 2015. The Dodgers got very little production from that position last year with Jimmy Rollins, who's now gone.

Otherwise, the every-day lineup should look the same, although L.A. still has a problem of too many outfielders. It was thought that second baseman Howie Kendrick was going to leave as a free agent, but he didn't find much out there and re-signed in late January. He batted .295 with nine home runs and 54 RBIs in 2015 and will hit second.

First baseman Adrian Gonzalez (.275, 28 HRs, 90 RBIs) is Mr. Consistent and bats third. He's followed by underrated third baseman Justin Turner (.294, 16 HRs, 60 RBIs) and left fielder Andre Either (.294, 14 HRs, 53 RBIs). Carl Crawford is still around and he will also play left at times but appears to be the odd man out for now. The Dodgers would still love to trade Ethier or Crawford, but they'd have to eat too much salary.

The key to the lineup is likely mercurial Yasiel Puig, who is in right field and slotted for sixth. He was limited to 79 games last year and hit just .255 with 11 homers. Puig apparently isn't liked much in the clubhouse, either. He could also be facing a suspension because he was involved in a fight with a bouncer at a Miami bar after an argument with his sister in November. If Puig can get his head on straight, he could be an MVP candidate.

Catcher Yasmani Grandal (.234, 16 HRs, 47 RBIs) and center fielder Joc Pederson (.210, 26 HRs, 54 RBIs) round things out. Pederson was the NL Rookie of the Year favorite even over Kris Bryant at last season's All-Star break but then fell off a cliff in the second half.

Dodgers 2016 Projected Rotation & Closer

L.A. was fifth in the majors in ERA last season thanks in large part to the best 1-2 rotation punch in MLB in Kershaw and Greinke. L.A. wanted to re-sign Greinke after he opted out of his deal, but the Diamondbacks swooped in with crazy money. Greinke was the Cy Young runner-up after going 19-3 with league-best 1.66 ERA.

Obviously, there's no replacing Greinke, but the Dodgers still have the incomparable Kershaw atop the rotation. He was 16-7 with a 2.13 ERA and MLB and career-high 301 strikeouts. It was the first 300-strikeout season by anyone since 2002. The Dodgers also bring back lefties Brett Anderson (10-9, 3.69 ERA) and midseason trade acquisition Alex Wood (12-12, 3.84). Anderson is always an injury worry and Wood was disappointing after coming over from Atlanta in trade at the deadline.

To fill Greinke's shoes, the team went with depth, inking lefty Scott Kazmir (7-11, 3.10) and Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda. The latter got an unusual eight-year deal that limits the Dodgers' liability because it's a near certainty that he will need Tommy John surgery at some point due to some irregularities in his right elbow. Maeda, 28, was 97-67 with a 2.39 ERA in eight seasons in Japan's top league. He's not seen as an ace like Yu Darvish but a mid-rotation guy. The Dodgers are also hoping Korean lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu can be ready by late April or early May off shoulder surgery that cost him all of 2015.

The bullpen might have been the best in the majors this season, but a deal for Cincinnati's Aroldis Chapman fell through because of his legal issues. Kenley Jensen (36 saves, 2.41 ERA) retains the closing spot.

Dodgers Futures Odds & 2015 Trends

Los Angeles is +1000 to win the World Series, +550 to win the NL pennant and a +150 second-favorite in the NL West. The Dodgers have an "over/under" wins total of 90.5, with both at -115. Pederson is +6600 to lead the majors in homers, Puig is +10000 and Gonzalez is +20000. Kershaw is the +150 Cy Young favorite. L.A. was 73-89 against the spread last season and 78-79-5 O/U.

Dodgers 2016 Predictions

FanGraphs projects Los Angeles to finish 91-71 and win the NL West by six games over San Francisco. I know a lot of people are on the Giants' bandwagon with their offseason moves, but I believe the Dodgers will win the West again -- barring injury to Kershaw. There are really no glaring holes on the team, especially once Ryu is healthy. And you know the team will spend money to add help if need be. Go over the wins but no pennant.

[NYK]

Re: MLB Betting Info. 4/3

2016 Texas Rangers Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series
by Alan Matthews

Normally when you trade a large chunk of your better prospects for a star-level player at baseball's July 31 trade deadline, it's just with the current season in mind. That's why no one really understood why the Texas Rangers sent five prospects (and pitcher Matt Harrison's contract) to the Philadelphia Phillies for Cole Hamels at last year's deadline. Nothing wrong with getting Hamels as he was on a long-term deal, but why not wait until the offseason when the price might be a bit lower? After all, Texas was 50-52 last July 31 and seven games out of the AL West lead. Remember, too, that ace pitcher Yu Darvish was out for the season.

Clearly GM Jon Daniels knows what he's doing. Thanks in part to that Hamels deal, the Rangers exploded in the second half of the 2015 season and won the division with an 88-74 mark. Texas took a 2-0 lead in the ALDS against the heavily favored Blue Jays, winning those two in Toronto. However, the Rangers dropped both at home and Game 5 back in Toronto thanks in part to one of the wildest innings in baseball history (the seventh).

Still, it was a hugely-successful season when not a whole lot was expected after Darvish went down in the spring with an elbow injury. First-year manager Jeff Banister was named the AL Manger of the Year and rewarded with a contract extension. And now that Hamels is in place, Texas could have a killer top of the rotation once Darvish is back.

Texas opens the season April 4 at home vs. Seattle.

Rangers 2016 Projected Lineup

The team was very quiet this offseason in terms of adding a potential every-day piece until the Rangers signed former Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond to a one-year, $8 million deal on Monday. That's a terrific low-risk, high-reward deal for Texas. Desmond was languishing on the market because he was tied to draft pick compensation. He was offered about a $110 million extension by Washington entering last season. He hit 24 homers and knocked in 91 in 2014 and won three Silver Slugger Awards at shortstop overall. True, Desmond struggled for much of 2015, batting .233 with 19 homers and 62 RBIs. He also made a National League-high 27 errors. Desmond won't play short in Texas but will move to left field because the projected starter there, Josh Hamilton, is hurt again. He might be back in May, but it's pretty clear at this point Hamilton's days as a full-time player are over. The Rangers can't hide him at DH because they have Prince Fielder there.

Center fielder Delino DeShields (.261, 25 steals) is the leadoff hitter. Right fielder Shin-Soo Choo (.276, 22 HRs, 82 RBIs), who had a nice bounce-back season in 2015, bats second. Then comes Fielder, who was last year's AL Comeback Player of the Year. After playing just 42 games in 2014 and having neck surgery, Fielder played 158 games in 2015 and hit.305 with 23 homers and 98 RBIs. Fielder finished in the Top 10 in the league in batting average, on-base percentage, games played and RBIs.

Fielder is followed in the lineup by third baseman Adrian Beltre (.287, 18 HRs, 83 RBIs), who shows little sign of slowing down even though he will be 37 early next month. Desmond is potential injury insurance at third as well. Underrated Mitch Moreland (.278, 18 HRs, 83 RBIs) bats fifth, followed by Desmond or perhaps Hamilton if they platoon at some point, shortstop Elvis Andrus (.258 62 RBIs), one of the most overpaid players in the majors, rising star Rougned Odor (.261, 16 HRs, 61RBIs) at second and Robinson Chirinos behind the plate.

If Beltre or a corner outfielder gets hurt, the Rangers can call up top slugging prospect Joey Gallo. He got a cup of coffee in the majors last season and showed his prodigious power but also the fact he strikes out a ton. Texas finished third in MLB in runs last season and should be a Top 5 team again -- especially with 81 games in that jetstream that is Globe Life Park in Arlington in the dog days of summer.

Rangers 2016 Projected Rotation & Closer

The big loss from the rotation is righty Yovani Gallardo, who was very solid with a 13-11 record and 3.42 ERA 184 1/3 innings en route to 4.1 Wins Above Replacement in 2015. He recently signed with Baltimore.

The Rangers' success largely hinges on Darvish's return from Tommy John surgery. He's simply a true ace and was an All-Star his first three seasons. Darvish has been throwing without pain in spring camp but not at full bore yet. After all, the guy hasn't pitched in a major-league game since Aug. 9, 2014. Don't look for Darvish before mid-May at the earliest.

Hamels was 7-1 with a 3.66 ERA after coming over from Philadelphia, and he has proven as durable and consistent as any pitcher in baseball. You know what you will get from him: around 15 wins, a mid-3.00 ERA (in the better-hitting AL), 200-some strikeouts and 200-some innings. Fellow lefty Derek Holland has made just 15 starts the past two seasons because of major surgery of his own but appears 100 percent now. He's terrific when healthy. Colby Lewis (17-9, 4.66), clearly a beneficiary of some good run support last year, Martin Perez (3-6, 4.46) and Nick Martinez (7-7, 3.96) round out the rotation.

Closer Shawn Tolleson had 35 saves in 37 chances last season with a 2.99 ERA.

That's not a pitching staff I believe makes the playoffs unless Darvish is back healthy and to previous form come summer.

Rangers Futures Odds & 2015 Trends

Texas is +2000 to win its first World Series, +900 to win the AL pennant, +400 to repeat in the AL West and has an "over/under" wins total of 83.5, with both options at -115. Fielder is +8000 to lead the majors in homers. Hamels is +2000 to win the Cy Young. The Rangers were 96-66 against the spread last season and 72-80-10 O/U.

Rangers 2016 Predictions

FanGraphs projects Texas to finish 80-82 and fourth in the AL West, seven games behind first-place Houston. I tend to agree for the most part. You see every year one team get hot after the All-Star break to reach the playoffs then fall back to expected levels the next season. Texas does have the budget to make a big trade if necessary. But go under those wins as the AL West will be very tough.

[NYK]

Re: MLB Betting Info. 4/3

2016 Houston Astros Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series
by Alan Matthews

The Chicago Cubs get all the publicity in baseball entering the 2016 season because they were a team with a group of touted prospects who arrived in the playoffs a year ahead of schedule in 2015. But the Houston Astros are the American League version of the Cubs. And with all due respect to all of Chicago's young talent, there is no player with more upside in baseball than Astros shortstop Carlos Correa.

You sort of saw Houston's rise coming last season if you really paid attention. From 2011-13, they lost at least 106 games each year. But Houston improved to 70-92 in 2014. The Astros led the AL West for a large chunk of last season before fading a bit late and finishing 86-76, second in the division and two games behind Texas.


But that record earned the Astros the AL's second wild-card spot. And behind ace lefty Dallas Keuchel, the Astros went to Yankee Stadium and won 3-0 as Keuchel threw a three-hitter pitching on short rest for the first time in his career. It was Houston's first playoff game since being swept in the 2005 World Series.

Frankly, Houston should have then beaten Kansas City in the ALDS. With the Astros leading the series 2-1 following another strong Keuchel performance in Game 3, they found themselves up 6-2 at home entering the top of the eighth inning of Game 4. But a Correa error helped open the floodgates as the Royals scored five in the eighth and two in the ninth for a 9-6 victory. Johnny Cueto then dominated Houston in the clinching Game 5.

Still, a hugely successful season and one that should portend the Astros as AL contenders for the rest of the decade as ownership finally has shown it will spend some money. It also got first-year manager A.J. Hinch a contract extension.

Houston opens the season with a wild-card rematch at Yankee Stadium on April 4.

Astros 2016 Projected Lineup

The only two players Houston lost of note last season from the lineup were first baseman/DH Chris Carter and infielder Jed Lowrie. Carter hit 24 homers but also .199 and was a strikeout machine. So neither loss hurts.

One of my favorite players in baseball is Astros diminutive All-Star second baseman Jose Altuve, and he leads off. The 2014 AL batting champion followed that up with another very strong season, batting a team-best .313 with 15 homers, 66 RBIs and 38 steals. Is there a better second baseman or leadoff hitter in baseball? He will be followed by right fielder George Springer (.276, 16 HRs, 41 RBIs, 16 steals), formerly one of the team's top prospects. Springer has had a problem staying healthy in his short career, but he's a huge talent.

If you held a draft today where every player in baseball was available, I'm sure some GMs would take Mike Trout or Bryce Harper. But I'd be willing to bet a majority would take Correa, who plays short and bats third. The 2012 No. 1 overall pick was the AL Rookie of the Year in 2015. Correa wasn't called up until June 8 and still hit .279 with 22 homers, 68 RBIs and 14 steals. His home run rate of one every 17.6 at-bats was the best of any AL rookie shortstop ever with at least 400 at-bats. Correa led all shortstops in baseball in home runs, slugging percentage (.512) and OPS (.857) despite ranking 27th among shortstops in plate appearances. This guy is going to be a superstar along Alex Rodriguez proportions -- that's whom he's often compared to (the young, clean version of A-Rod). Correa won't even be 22 until late September.

Evan Gattis (.247, 27 HRs, 88 RBIs) will DH and hit cleanup. He had hernia surgery in early February, but the team thinks he will be ready for Opening Day. Center fielder Carlos Gomez (.255, 12 HRs, 56 RBIs, 17 steals) will hit fifth. He was acquired at the trade deadline from Milwaukee and was moderately disappointing but did battle injuries. Left fielder Colby Rasmus (25 HRs, 61 RBIs) took the team's one-year qualifying offer to return.

The rest of the lineup should be third baseman Luis Valbuena (25 HRs, 56 RBIs), first baseman Jon Singleton and catcher Jason Castro. Singleton was once a top prospect but has struggled mightily and could platoon with Matt Duffy. Valbuena also can play first. Or the team could eventually turn to prospect A.J. Reed. If there's one spot in the lineup that looks worrisome, it's there.

Houston was second in the majors in homers last year and second in strikeouts. Expect more of the same. The only guy in the lineup who doesn't whiff a lot is Altuve.

Astros 2016 Projected Rotation & Closer

The rotation is led by Keuchel, who won the 2015 AL Cy Young. He led all AL pitchers in innings (232.0), WAR (7.2) and WHIP (1.02) and also had a 2.48 ERA and 216 strikeouts. Keuchel was a crazy 15-0 with a 1.46 ERA at Minute Maid Park, which is supposed to be hitter-friendly. If there's one worry, it's that Keuchel threw by far his most career innings last season, but he's only 28. Guy will make only $7.2 million this season, an absolute steal.

Solid right-hander Collin McHugh (19-7, 3.89) and promising youngster Lance McCullers (6-7, 3.22) follow Keuchel. I loved Houston's low-risk, high-reward signing of Doug Fister, who slots in at No. 4. He got a one-year, $7 million deal after struggling to a 5-7 record and 4.19 ERA with Washington last year. But the year before that he was 16-6 with a 2.41 ERA. He has been very good since 2011 except for last year.

The No. 5 slot likely will be a camp battle between Scott Feldman and Mike Fiers, who came over in that Gomez trade with the Brewers. The Astros dealt two members of last year's rotation in young right-hander Vincent Velasquez and lefty Brett Oberholtzer to acquire Phillies stud closer Ken Giles. He is one of the hardest-throwers in the majors and had 15 saves and a 1.80 ERA for a terrible Phillies team in 2015. The Astros had the lowest average fastball velocity of any bullpen in the majors last season at 91.1 mph. Giles threw 193 fastballs at 98 mph or higher last year. He bumps former closer Luke Gregerson to a set-up role.

Astros Futures Odds & 2015 Trends

Houston is +1400 to win its first World Series, +650 to take its first AL pennant, a +105 favorite in the AL West and has an "over/under" wins total of 88. Both options are -115. Correa is +1600 to win AL MVP and Altuve is +2500. Correa is +5000 to lead the majors in homers with Springer at the same price and Gattis at +6600. Keuchel is +600 to win the AL Cy Young again and McHugh is +6600.

Astros 2016 Predictions

FanGraphs projects Houston to finish 87-75 and win the AL West by five games over Seattle. I could legitimately see every team but Oakland win that division this year. It's probably the second-hardest to forecast after the AL Central. But with a full season of Correa and Gomez, a potentially rejuvenated and motivated Fister and a lights-out closer in Giles, this is my AL West champion. Go over the wins. I don' t think this is a pennant team barring a midseason acquisition, however. Not ready to say Correa will win an MVP yet, but it's coming.

[NYK]

Re: MLB Betting Info. 4/3

2016 Los Angeles Angels Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series
by Alan Matthews

Mike Scioscia is a good manger, no question. The former big-league catcher is the longest-tenured manager in the majors, having been on the Halos' bench since 2000. But sometimes a team needs a new face or vision at manager after that long. And I'm not sure Scioscia survives 2016 if the Angels either: 1) get off to a slow start, which could lead to an in-season change; or 2) fail to make the playoffs again.

I thought L.A. would win the AL West last season off a 98-win year in 2014, but the Angels finished at 85-77. That was third in the division, three games behind Texas and one game behind division-rival Houston for the AL's second wild-card spot. Los Angeles had a chance to clinch a one-game playoff with the Astros on the final day of the regular season as Houston lost, but L.A. was bombed by Texas 9-2.

So that's five times in the past six seasons the Angels have missed the playoffs, and that one year they did make it, 2014, they were swept by underdog Kansas City in the ALDS. Yet Scioscia still yields more power than any manager in baseball, including winning a personnel battle with General Manager Jerry Dipoto, who resigned last midseason because of a rift with his manager. Does Scioscia have some incriminating pictures of owner Arte Moreno or something? Moreno can't possibly keep Scioscia on after this year with another disappointing season and one of the highest payrolls in baseball.

And it's really now or never for the Angels because they have the worst farm system in baseball by a mile, so there's no in-house help on the way. ESPN's Keith Law called it the worst system he had ever seen since starting his ratings.

Los Angeles opens the season at home against the Cubs on April 4.

Angels 2016 Projected Lineup

L.A. opted not to bring back third baseman David Freese (.257, 14 HRs, 56 RBIs), who as of this writing is surprisingly still unsigned by any team, and catcher Chris Iannetta (.188, 10 HRs, 34 RBIs). The two big additions were infielder Yunel Escobar, who came over in trade from Washington, and shortstop Andrelton Simmons, acquired in a deal from Atlanta that cost the Angels the best of their remaining prospects and last year's starting shortstop Erick Aybar.

Escobar is coming off a solid offensive season in which he batted .314 with nine homers and 56 RBIs in 139 games in Washington He will take over for Freese at third. Escobar doesn't have Freese's power but will get on base more. Simmons doesn't do much at the plate, while Aybar was a good hitter, but Simmons is without peer defensively at shortstop.

Right fielder Kole Calhoun will bat first and he's not your typical leadoff hitter as he had an on-base percentage of just .308 last year and doesn't run much, but he also slugged 26 homers and had 83 RBIs. He will be followed by Escobar and then the best player in the majors, center fielder Mike Trout. He finished second in the AL MVP voting last year for a third time in his four seasons (winning it in 2014), hitting .299 with a career-high 41 homers (led AL in slugging) along with 90 RBIs and 11 steals. You could argue it was his worst all-around season yet it was still fabulous. He led the AL in offensive WAR at 8.9. The guy is just 24.

If healthy, Albert Pujols will hit cleanup and play first base. He had surgery in November on his foot, and it wasn't clear if he would be ready for Opening Day, but that's looking likely now. Pujols did hit 40 homers last year but clearly is in decline as he only batted .244, easily a career low. He's simply breaking down, and that massive contract looks worse and worse. Pujols will certainly DH at times this season as well.

The rest of the lineup: DH C.J. Cron (.262, 16 HRs, 51 RBIs), left fielder Daniel Nava (.194, 1 HR, 10 RBIs with Rays and Red Sox), Simmons (.265, 44 RBIs), catcher Carlos Perez (.250, 4 HRs, 21 RBIs) and second baseman Johnny Giavotella (.272, 4 HRs, 49 RBIs).

That's a pretty weak last four of the lineup, and there's a gaping hole in left field. The Angels were rumored to be interested in several big-name free-agent outfielders to play there but they don't want to pay the luxury tax.

Angels 2016 Projected Rotation & Closer

Already there is a worry here. Former ace Jered Weaver was rocked for six hits, three homers, in 2.2 innings in Wednesday's Cactus League game and then complained after of some neck trouble. Weaver was hitting just 80 mph on his fastball. An MRI showed tightening of the nerves in his neck. That by itself shouldn't be major, but Weaver isn't close to what he once was, going 7-12 with a 4.64 ERA last season. He'll make $20 million this season. Yikes!

The new ace is right-hander Garrett Richards. He got a slightly late start last season after an ACL tear cut short his stellar 2014, but Richards was still a very good 15-12 with a 3.65 ERA in 201.7 innings in 2015. He'll be followed by another hugely overpaid veteran who is on the downside of his career: lefty C.J. Wilson. He was limited to 21 starts and was 8-8 with a 3.89 ERA in 2015. He will also make $20 million this season. But at least the deals of he and Weaver, who slots in at No. 3, are off the books in 2017.

The rest of the rotation is promising young left-hander Andrew Heaney (6-4, 3.49 ERA) and righty Matt Shoemaker (7-10, 4.46 ERA). Lefty Hector Santiago was an All-Star last season and finished 9-9 with a 3.59 ERA but right now looks ticketed for the bullpen. However, Wilson is having some shoulder issues in camp -- and had offseason elbow surgery -- so he could open on the DL and Santiago would be back in the rotation. The team also is hoping lefty Tyler Skaggs will be ready at some point early in the season after missing all of last year following Tommy John surgery.

The Angels are solid at closer with Huston Street (40 saves, 3.18 ERA).

Angels Futures Odds & 2015 Trends

Los Angeles is +3300 to win the World Series, +1600 for the AL pennant, +525 in the AL West and has an "over/under" of 81.5 wins, with the under a -135 favorite. Trout is a +150 favorite to win a second AL MVP and is +1000 to win the big-league home-run title. Pujols is +5000 on that prop. Richards is +2000 to win the Cy Young.

Angels 2016 Predictions

FanGraphs projects Los Angeles to finish 81-81 and third in the AL West, six games behind Houston. This team is going to have to win a lot of 6-5 games. I'd definitely go over most Angels totals in 2015. I'm going to go over the win totals, but it won't be by much: maybe 84-78. But if Trout gets hurt for any extended duration, this club might finish in the AL West basement. And I don't see him winning MVP or leading the majors in homers. Trout will be pitched around often because Pujols simply is a one-trick pull-hitting pony hitting behind him at this point.

[NYK]

Re: MLB Betting Info. 4/3

2016 San Francisco Giants Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series
by Alan Matthews

It didn't exactly take a genius to realize that the San Francisco Giants were going to miss the playoffs in 2015. After all, it was an odd-numbered season.

The Giants finished 84-78, second in the NL West and eight games behind the Dodgers. They stayed in the race in the division until a closing 15-19 run. The playoffs were never an option as they were 13 games out of a wild-card spot because the NL Central was so good. It's the third time this decade that San Francisco missed the playoffs in an odd-numbered year.

The Giants saw a ton of injuries to their rotation last year, other than to ace Madison Bumgarner. And one of their best offensive players, outfielder Hunter Pence, could barely stay on the field. It's credit to Manager Bruce Bochy, one of the best in the business, that this club won 84 games. The team did get breakout seasons from rookie pitcher Chris Heston as well as shortstop Brandon Crawford and rookie third baseman Matt Duffy

San Francisco opens the season April 4 at Milwaukee and, not surprisingly, already has named Bumgarner as the starter. I probably don't need to tell you that the Giants have won the World Series in the past three even-numbered seasons. They were not favorites for any of those titles.

Giants 2016 Projected Lineup

This probably will never be a dynamic offensive team post-Barry Bonds because AT&T Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly in the majors and the team builds its roster that way. The Giants ranked 12th in MLB in runs last year and hit only 136 homers, which tied for 26th. Without a healthy Pence, the Giants had one of the worst offensive outfields in baseball and they said goodbye to slap-hitting Nori Aoki and late-season addition Marlon Byrd this offseason. No real losses there.

The main lineup addition was Denard Span, and he'll play center field and leadoff. Span's a very good player but largely languished on the free-agent market because he was injury-prone in 2015. He batted .301 with five homers, 22 RBIs and a .365 on-base percentage in 61 games. Span has averaged 9.34 plate appearances per strikeout the past five seasons, the fourth-best figure among big league outfielders. That's what the Giants want: contact hitters.

Second baseman Joe Panik (.312, 8 HRs, 37 RBIs) follows him. Good player. Then comes the team's most important guy, catcher Buster Posey (.318, 19 HRs, 95 RBIs). You wonder how much longer the Giants will keep him at catcher, the most physically grueling position in MLB, instead of moving him to first base full-time like the Twins did with Joe Mauer. Posey will be 29 later this month. He got 394 at-bats last year as a catcher and 146 at first. Expect similar splits.

Pence (.275, 9 HRs, 40 RBIs) will play right field and bat fourth. He broke his arm early last spring and kept getting hurt, playing in only 52 games. He already has some Achilles' issues this spring. I have little confidence he plays 100 games.

Few teams have a better left side of the infield than San Francisco, with Duffy (.295, 12 HRs, 77 RBIs) batting fifth and Crawford (.256, 21 HRs, 84 RBIs) in the No. 6 hole. Duffy would have been in the Rookie of the Year conversation many years but not with Kris Bryant around in 2015. Crawford, who won a Gold Glove last year, was rewarded with a big extension this offseason. First baseman Brandon Belt (.280, 18 HRs, 68 RBIs) and left fielder Angel Pagan (.262, 37 RBI) round out the lineup. Both those guys were unable to play 140 games last year due to injury.

This lineup is pretty solid 1-8 with no glaring holes. No guy who terrifies you except maybe Posey. And probably no one who hits 25 dingers unless Belt plays in 155 games. But it won't strike out a ton and will get on base -- a West Coast version of the Royals.

Giants 2016 Projected Rotation & Closer

Bumgarner and Heston were the only Giants pitchers to make more than 22 starts or qualify for the ERA title in 2015. The team has said goodbye to three members of that rotation in Tim Hudson, who retired, Mike Leake, a trade acquisition from Cincinnati last July, and Ryan Vogelsong. Tim Lincecum also has moved on, but he hasn't been good for a few years.

The lefty Bumgarner (18-9, 2.93) is one of the Top-10 pitchers on the planet and is a playoff marvel. He's also on a tremendously team-friendly contract and a very good hitter. The Giants spent big to fortify that rotation on free-agent right-handers Johnny Cueto (11-13, 3.44) and Jeff Samardzija (11-13, 4.96) to slot in at No. 2 and No. 3. Both took their lumps in the AL last season, especially Samardzija with the White Sox. Cueto had some regular-season struggles after being traded to the Royals but looked good in the playoffs. The Giants figure a return to the NL and pitching half their games in AT&T Park will return each to previous form. Cueto took a scary line drive off his head in Cactus League action on Monday. He escaped with just a contusion, but might he now wear one of those unique helmet/hats while pitching?

Jake Peavy (8-6, 3.58) slots in at No. 4 and he's just a six-inning guy at this point. The No. 5 will either be Heston (12-11, 3.95), who threw a no-hitter last year, or Matt Cain (2-4, 5.79). He has been a mega-bust since signing a huge contract a few years ago. Cain can't stay healthy and had surgery to remove a cyst from his right arm last month. He was expected to make his spring debut this weekend. Expecting anything from him at this point is not wise. He probably starts the year on the DL again.

The bullpen lost lefty setup man Jeremy Affeldt to free agency but still has stud righty Sergio Romo ahead of closer Santiago Casilla (38 saves, 2.79 ERA). It's not impossible the Giants bring back Lincecum, a fan favorite, for a bullpen role if he remains out there.

Giants Futures Odds & 2015 Trends

San Francisco is +900 to win the World Series, +450 for the NL pennant, +125 in the NL West and has an "over/under" of 88.5 wins, with both at -115. Bumgarner is +1000 to win the Cy Young with Cueto at +2000 and Samardzija at +5000. That the Cy Young winner comes from the Giants is +500. Posey is +1200 to NL MVP. The Giants don't have any players on the prop to lead the majors in homers and they shouldn't.

Giants 2016 Predictions

FanGraphs projects San Francisco to finish 87-75 and second in the NL West, six games behind the Dodgers. Is there one World Series team more reliant on just two players -- Posey and Bumgarner -- than the Giants? I mean, the Cubs could lose Jon Lester and Anthony Rizzo, for example, and still be a contender. San Francisco 100 percent has to keep both those guys healthy. The infield is excellent, but the outfield is blah. Rotation looks pretty good 1-3. Bullpen very solid. I'm going under the wins, believe Giants finish third in the NL West and miss the playoffs. No individual awards.

[NYK]

Re: MLB Betting Info. 4/3

2016 Washington Nationals Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series
by Alan Matthews

Count me among the fooled last year. I was one of many who thought the Washington Nationals were going to be the best team in baseball in 2015 after adding Max Scherzer to an already loaded starting rotation. I mean, how could a team with Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez and Doug Fister in the rotation and a very good lineup led by Bryce Harper not make the playoffs?

Despite a very good season from Scherzer and a monster MVP campaign from Harper, the Nats finished just 83-79 an second in the NL East, seven games behind the Mets. The team won 13 fewer games than in 2014, which was the second-largest drop among National League teams (behind the Brewers at 14).

Every time I see the Nationals fall short of expectations, I go back to the 2012 season when the team stupidly, in my opinion, shut down Strasburg in September instead of just cutting back his innings and keeping him available for the playoffs like the Mets did with Matt Harvey in 2015. I believe those '12 Nationals win the World Series with Strasburg in there but instead they choked away Game 5 of the NLDS to St. Louis and have a single playoff win since then.

As he should have been, Manager Matt Williams was fired following last season's disappointment. He appeared to have lost the clubhouse when Jonathan Papelbon choked Harper in the dugout in the final week. Somehow Papelbon is still on the team. There was talk the Nats were maybe looking again to hire Cal Ripken Jr. as their manager, but the failures of Williams in his first managing job led Washington to experienced Dusty Baker. Great regular-season manager but doesn't have a good playoff track record. Baker has managed 1,671 games over 20 seasons without having won a World Series title, which puts him second only to Gene Mauch. Originally the club was to hire Bud Black, but that fell apart over contract negotiations in an embarrassing episode.

Washington opens the season April 4 at Atlanta.

Nationals 2016 Projected Lineup

Washington lost some good players off last year's lineup: shortstop Ian Desmond (although he disappointed in 2015), infielder Yunel Escobar, and center fielder and leadoff hitter Denard Span, who had trouble staying healthy last year.

One offseason addition was center fielder Ben Revere, acquired from Toronto for reliever Drew Storen -- I guarantee you that the Nats would have preferred to trade Papelbon, but there were no takers for his big contract. Revere is coming off a career-best season at the plate in which he batted .306 with a .719 OPS and 31 steals for the Phillies, where he started last season, and Blue Jays. Revere will lead off. He will be followed by third baseman Anthony Rendon, who was limited to 80 games last year and hit .264 with five homers and 25 RBIs.

Then comes the right fielder Harper, who was a Triple Crown candidate in 2015 in hitting .330 (second in NL) with 42 homers (tied for first in NL) and 99 RBIs. He led the majors in on-base percentage at .460 as he drew a whopping 124 walks as well as leading in slugging percentage at .649. Harper became the youngest unanimous MVP in MLB history. Only seven previous players, most of them Hall of Famers, produced a season with numbers that matched Harper's batting average, home runs, OBP and slugging mark. He might be the first $500 million player when he's a free agent after the 2018 season.

Injury-prone first baseman Ryan Zimmerman (.249, 16 HRs, 73 RBIs) and injury-prone and declining left fielder Jayson Werth (.221, 12 HRs, 42 RBIs) immediately follow Harper. Then comes the second new every-day addition: second baseman Daniel Murphy, formerly of the Mets. He hit .281 with 14 HRs and 73 RBIs during the regular season and then turned into Babe Ruth in the NL playoffs with a homer in a record six straight playoff games.

Shortstop Danny Espinosa (.240, 13 HRs, 37 RBIs) and catcher Wilson Ramos (.229, 15 HRs, 68 RBIs) close out the lineup. Espinosa is only keeping the seat warm for top shortstop prospect Trea Turner. Stephen Drew could also factor in a short or second base if Murphy gets hurt.

The Nationals were 10th in the majors in runs last season, but not much here scares anyone outside of Harper. He might get walked 150 times this year.

Nationals 2016 Projected Rotation & Closer

The rotation said goodbye to Zimmermann and Fister in free agency. Fister struggled and was injured some last year, but Zimmermann was again quite good with 13 wins and a 3.66 ERA. The Nats added Bronson Arroyo in free agency, but he's now dealing with a partially torn rotator cuff. That's actually good news as the team thought it was fully torn. So he should only miss 4-6 weeks. Arroyo really was signed more as insurance than anything.

Scherzer was mostly dominant in his return to the National League in 2015. He had two no-hitters, concluding his season with one and striking out 17 Mets. Scherzer was the first pitcher since Nolan Ryan in 1973 to throw two no-hitters in the same regular season and the fifth to do it in major-league history. His other one in June against Pittsburgh was a perfect game until he plunked the 27th batter. Scherzer finished 14-12 with a 2.79 ERA, fanning 276 (second in NL).

Strasburg (11-11, 3.46) still hasn't really lived up to expectations and made only 23 starts last year due to injury, but he was really overpowering after returning from it with a 1.73 ERA in his final 13 starts. Strasburg is the marquee free agent next winter, and he's going to test the market. Some team will give him $30 million a year, and it's not going to be Washington.

Gonzalez (11-8, 3.79), the lone lefty in the rotation, Tanner Roark (4-7, 4.38) and Joe Ross (5-5, 3.64) round out the rotation. Papelbon (24 saves, 2.13 ERA) closes things out. Keep in mind that the No. 1 pitching prospect in baseball is considered to be Washington's Lucas Giolito, so he could be a factor at some point this season.

Nationals Futures Odds & 2015 Trends

Washington is +1400 to win the World Series, +700 for the NL pennant, +115 in the NL East (second behind the Mets) and has an "over/under" wins total of 88.5, with the over a -120 favorite. Harper is +1000 to lead the majors in homers and the +200 favorite to repeat as NL MVP. Rendon is +5000 for MVP. Scherzer is +1000 for Cy Young, with Strasburg at +1400 and Gonzalez +10000. That the NL Cy Young winner comes from Washington is +550.

Nationals 2016 Predictions

FanGraphs projects Washington to finish 88-74 and second in the NL East, one game behind the Mets. When considering wins totals for NL East teams, keep in mind that Atlanta and Philadelphia both project to be really terrible, so the division teams can maybe get 30 combined wins against those two. I originally had the Mets finishing second this year to the Nationals in the division, but that was before New York was able to re-sign Yoenis Cespedes. So I'd probably peg Washington a very close second with the knowledge that the Nats will go spend money at the deadline if need be and New York probably won't. I'll go over that wins total. I don't think Harper repeats as MVP but I'm throwing a few dollars on Scherzer for Cy Young.

[NYK]

Re: MLB Betting Info. 4/3

2016 Minnesota Twins Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series
by Alan Matthews

I'm not exactly predicting this, but if you are looking for a team to take an Astros/Cubs-type leap as those formerly downtrodden franchises did in 2015, the Minnesota Twins are a pretty good candidate to be said club this season. One of baseball's top farm systems is beginning to reap rewards on the big-league level.

Under first-year manager and Hall of Fame player Paul Molitor, who was third in AL Manager of the Year voting, the Twins finished 83-79 last season and second in the AL Central, 12 games behind Kansas City. But Minnesota was in the wild-card chase down to the final days. Alas, the team lost four of its final five games. Those 83 wins were 13 more than 2014's total and Minnesota finished with a winning record for the first time since 2010, which is the last time the team made the playoffs (and won the division).

I'll just cut to the chase here and say that I don't think the Twins have enough pitching to win the very deep AL Central, but Miguel Sano looks like a future MVP candidate. The jury is still out on Byron Buxton, who at one point was the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball.

Minnesota opens the season April 4 in Baltimore.

Twins 2016 Projected Lineup

Minnesota, in part hampered by Joe Mauer's obscene contract, is simply never going to make a huge splash in free agency, and this offseason was no different. The Twins saw outfielder Torii Hunter retire after 19 big-league seasons. Hunter played 12 years with the Twins, including last season when he came back on a one-year deal. He's an all-time fan favorite in the Twin Cities. Minnesota also upgraded tits catcher situation by acquiring John Ryan Murphy from the Yankees for outfielder Aaron Hicks, although Murphy projects as the backup this season. Hicks hit .256 with 11 homers and 33 RBIs in 352 at-bats in 2015.

The Twins used 124 different batting orders last season and no lineup more than seven times. So take this projected lineup with a grain of salt.

The leadoff hitter is second baseman Brian Dozier, who has probably the most power of any at his position in the majors these days as Dozier hit 28 homers and knocked in 77 last year. Then comes Mauer, who is now a full-time first baseman. He will make $23 million this season and the next two. What a disaster that deal has been. Mauer hit just .265 with 10 homers and 66 RBIs last year; those would be great numbers for a catcher but not a corner infielder.

Then comes Sano, who plays right field. This guy is a beast in the Giancarlo Stanton mode. Sano, who turns 23 in May, hit .269 with 18 homers and 52 RBIs in only 279 at-bats last season. He's followed by underrated third baseman Trevor Plouffe (.244, 22 HRs, 86 RBIs) and left fielder Eddie Rosario (.267, 13 HRs, 50 RBIs).

Minnesota's main every-day addition this offseason was signing Korean slugger Byung Ho Park, and he projects to hit sixth and play DH. When you are a small-market team like the Twins, you have to take chances on foreign guys sometimes. Park got $12 million over four years after the Twins won the bidding for him at $12.85 million. The winning bid was the second-largest bid ever paid to negotiate with an Asian position player behind the $13 million the Mariners paid for Ichiro Suzuki. That worked out pretty well. But Park is nothing like Ichiro as Park hit .343 with 53 homers and 146 RBIs last season in the Korea Baseball Organization. He's a two-time MVP of that league.

Shortstop Eduardo Escobar (.262, 12 HRs, 58 RBIs) and catcher Kurt Suzuki (.240, 5 HRs, 50 RBIs) follow Park. And that brings us to Buxton, the center fielder hitting ninth and a five-tool player. He looked a bit overmatched last year as a 21-year-old, hitting just .209 with two homers and 44 strikeouts in 129 at-bats. He's also struggling this spring so it's not impossible he begins the season in Triple-A or is sent down at some point, but the Twins want him to stay up for good.

Twins 2016 Projected Rotation & Closer

Minnesota has had issues with its rotation for a while. The Twins' starters went from posting the worst ERA in the majors in 2014 to the 16th-best in '15, going from a 5.06 ERA to a 4.14 ERA. So if another jump can be made, there might be something here. It's just there's really no true ace.

Ervin Santana (7-5, 4.00) was limited to 17 starts last year because of an 80-game suspension. So obviously another failed drug test and he's gone for a year. Santana's a solid enough pitcher but should be about a No. 4, not a No. 1. He was given a four-year, $55 million contract last offseason, the most money given to a free agent in team history.

Santana is followed by Kyle Gibson (11-11, 3.84) and Phil Hughes (11-9, 4.40). Hughes was a true ace in 2014 and earned a big new extension, but predictably he regressed to close to his career numbers last year. After throwing a career-high 209.2 innings in 2014, Hughes tossed just 155.1 innings in '15 after missing a month with a back injury.

The back end of the rotation will be decided in camp, but it's likely to be lefty Tommy Milone (9-5, 3.92) and maybe Ricky Nolasco (5-2, 6.75), who has been a monster bust since getting a big free-agent deal before the 2014 season. Tyler Duffey (5-1, 3.10) also is in the mix here.

Closer Glen Perkins (32 saves, 3.32 ERA) is solid enough but that's a high ERA for a closer.

Twins Futures Odds

Minnesota is +4500 to win the World Series, +2200 for the AL pennant, a +900 long shot in the AL Central and has an "over/under" wins total of 79.5, with the under a -125 favorite. Sano is +2000 to win the big-league home-run crown. He has an O/U of 29.5 dingers. No other player props are available yet for other Twins.

Twins 2016 Predictions

FanGraphs projects Minnesota to finish 78-84 and fourth in the Central, eight games behind first-place Cleveland. I'm struggling with this team, to be honest. Molitor appears to be a very good manager, which can be worth something like five wins. I love Sano. Is Buxton ready to be a regular? Can the Twins afford help if they need it? I don't have the answers to those. I'm going under that wins total.

[NYK]

Re: MLB Betting Info. 4/3

2016 Baltimore Orioles Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series
by Alan Matthews

Has the Baltimore Orioles' window to win the franchise's first pennant since 1983 already closed? I say yes.

In 2014, the Orioles were surprising AL East champions with 96 wins and reached the ALCS, where they were swept by Kansas City. The Birds did little that following offseason and several players regressed, which led to an 81-81 mark last year (awful 34-50 on road -- three home games lost due to civil unrest in Baltimore) and third-place finish in the division, 12 games behind Toronto. It was the team's first non-winning season since 2011, which was Manager Buck Showalter's first full season.

This team takes an unusual approach to free agency. And that is: It generally sits on the sidelines until February when it then gets guys at a discount. It worked ahead of the 2014 season with Nelson Cruz. This offseason? Not thrilling. Former Rangers pitcher Yovani Gallardo fell into their lap, but he's just a mid-rotation guy. The Orioles thought they had a deal with free-agent outfielder Dexter Fowler, and just about every media outlet in Baltimore reported that deal was done too. But Fowler spurned the Orioles and their three-year, $33 million offer for essentially a one-year, $13 million deal to return to Chicago. Fowler said he wanted to win and certainly the Cubs are in better shape to do that than the Birds.

The Orioles did spend around $215 million this offseason to re-sign Chris Davis and Matt Wieters and add reliever Darren O'Day and Korean outfielder Hyun Soo Kim, but is that enough to contend in the division? No sir. And the farm system isn't going to help anytime soon as touted young pitchers like Dylan Bundy have failed to make an impact yet; in Bundy's case largely due to injury.

Baltimore opens the season April 4 at home against Minnesota.

Orioles 2016 Projected Lineup

This lineup is going to jack a ton of homers again (2017 in 2015) but probably lead the American League, if not the majors, in strikeouts. The only significant losses were outfielder Gerardo Parra and outfielder/first baseman Steve Pearce. So nothing much to see there.

One of the most talented players in baseball, third baseman Manny Machado, is set to lead off. He's still just 23 and hit .286 with 35 homers, 86 RBIs and 20 steals last season while continuing to play stellar defense at the hot corner. Guy's a stud. Don't count on him playing all 162 games again, however.

It's somewhat tough to project how Baltimore will use its corner outfielders and thus the full lineup. Either Kim or Nolan Reimold should play left field and perhaps hit second. Kim hit .326 with a .438 on-base percentage, 28 home runs and 121 RBIs last season in the top Korean League. He appears to be a good contact hitter, and the Birds really need that as their .307 team on-base percentage was tied for third worst in the American League in 2015. Reimold hit .247 with six homers and 20 RBIs in 170 at-bats last year.

Center fielder Adam Jones, like Machado one of the best in the majors at his position, should hit third. He did battle some injuries in 2015 and hit .269 with 27 dingers, 82 RBIs and just three steals. So really it was his worst season since 2011 but still very good.

I believe the Orioles will regret giving Davis a seven-year, $161 extension when they were essentially bidding against themselves on the open market. Davis led the majors with 47 homers last season while knocking in 117 but also struck out 208 times. He also mashed in 2013, leading the majors in homers with 53, but struggled big time in 2014 and had a drug suspension. Davis will hit cleanup.

The O's traded for a lesser version of Davis in Mark Trumbo from Seattle. He hit .262 last year with 22 homers and 64 RBIs with the M's and Diamondbacks but is another all-or-nothing guy at the plate. Trumbo should hit fifth but where will he play? He's a terrible defender but probably ticketed for right field.

Will Pedro Alvarez follow Trumbo in the lineup? Alvarez is exactly the same type of player: good power, little contact and terrible defender. He was signed off the bargain bin after batting .243 with 27 homers and 77 RBI last year for Pittsburgh, which basically benched him late in the year and then just released Alvarez. I presume Alvarez will be the primary DH because he's not a good first baseman and can't play the outfield. But the O's would have been much better off with Fowler in right field and Trumbo at DH.

The rest of the lineup in some order should be catcher Matt Wieters (.267, 8 HRs, 25 RBIs, shortstop J.J. Hardy (.219, 8 HRs, 37 RBIs) and second baseman Jonathan Schoop (.279, 15 HRS, 39 RBIs). Wieters took the team's one-year qualifying offer because his value was pretty low after playing only 75 games last year off Tommy John surgery and struggling. Wieters has been dealing with some elbow trouble this spring and could open on the DL. Hardy was limited to 114 games and he's trending downward. Schoop is pretty underrated.

Powerful lineup for sure and I love Machado and Jones. But some square pegs in round holes in a few places. Not a very good defensive team other than at third in center.

Orioles 2016 Projected Rotation & Closer

This is clearly the problem area. The Orioles' best starter last year was lefty Wei-Yin Chen (11-8, 3.34), who was the only regular rotation guy with an ERA under 4.00. He left in free agency. The Orioles' rotation pitched to a 4.53 ERA last year, 25th in baseball and that was with Chen.

Chris Tillman largely pitched like a No. 1 starter in 2013-14 but tailed off last year, going 11-11 with a 4.99 ERA in 31 games. He's not an overpowering guy that every rotation needs to win a playoff game.

Baltimore originally signed Gallardo to a three-year deal but then it was reworked to two years and a club option after some issue crept up in the physical. Gallardo, 30, has averaged 191 innings over the past seven seasons and has never had any significant shoulder or elbow injuries. So that's good. He was 13-11 with a 3.42 ERA with Texas in 2015.

The rotation should be filled out by Miguel Gonzalez, Ubaldo Jimenez and Kevin Gausman. That's not good. Gonzalez regressed to a 4.91 ERA and 9-12 mark last year, Jimenez (12-10, 4.11) simply stinks. Gausman (4-7, 4.25) was formerly a top prospect and teams around the league still ask about trading for him, but he hasn't put it together yet. He is dealing with some shoulder tendinitis as well and likely to miss the first week or two of the season. That can obviously lead to much worse things.

If the O's can get a lead to the eighth inning, they are in great shape with O'Day (1.52 ERA) setting up Zach Britton (36 saves, 1.92 ERA).

Orioles Futures Odds

Baltimore is +4000 to win the World Series, +2000 for the AL pennant, +900 in the AL East (long shot) and has an "over/under" wins total of 78.5, with the under a -125 favorite. Davis is +1200 to lead the majors in homers with Machado, Jones and Trumbo at +5000. Davis has an O/U of 36.5 dingers. Machado is +550 for AL MVP and Davis +3300.

Orioles 2016 Predictions

FanGraphs projects Baltimore to finish 79-83 and last in the AL East, nine behind Boston. This will be a fun team to watch some nights and be involved in a lot of high-scoring games. But it's also going to be shutout a lot with so many big swingers in the lineup -- I love betting against those types of teams early in the year when it's still cold in some cities. I hate that pitching staff. Go under the wins but over Davis' homer total. Don't like the other individual props.

[NYK]

Re: MLB Betting Info. 4/3

2016 Cleveland Indians Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series
by Alan Matthews

If my team can't win the World Series this season, and I'll keep quiet on who that is (have to stay impartial), then I hope the Cleveland Indians do it. That city really could use some good news with the sorry Browns and overrated Cavaliers. No Cleveland team has won a major sports title since 1964 when the Browns took the NFL championship.

Could the Tribe end that drought in 2016? From a pitching perspective, absolutely. I'm just not sure there's enough hitting or enough payroll flexibility to go get any.

It's very important for this team to get off to a good start. In each of Manager Terry Francona's three seasons, the Indians have stumbled out of the gates. In 2013, they were 11-13 through April. The following year they were 11-17 through April. Last season, they were 7-14. But the Indians usually close strong, and last year was no different as the Tribe had the fourth-most wins in the AL in the second half. But that hole was just too deep. Cleveland finished 81-80 (one postponed game not made up), good for third in the AL Central and the team's third straight winning record.

The division seems very winnable this season, but the Tribe again were very quiet in free agency. They also didn't lose anyone of note, I suppose. Cleveland opens the season on April 4 against Boston.

Indians 2016 Projected Lineup

First let's start with the team's best all-around player in left fielder and All-Star Michael Brantley. He was injured late last season on a diving catch attempt in Minnesota and had November surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder. The team was hoping he could avoid surgery altogether, so that was the reason for the delay. Originally, Brantley wasn't perhaps expected until June. Now? He just started playing in spring training games and could be ready for Opening Day. That's huge. Brantley hit .310 with 15 homers, 84 RBIs and 15 steals last year.

The Indians also have another potential outfield worry, as in February center fielder Abraham Almonte was suspended 80 games for testing positive for a PED. As with about every player, Almonte swore he didn't know how it got into his system. Yeah right. After he was acquired by the Indians at the 2015 trade deadline for reliever Marc Rzepczynski, Almonte played in 51 games for Cleveland, hitting .264 with five home runs and 20 RBIs.

The Indians did add free-agent outfielder Rajai Davis. He was a platoon player with the Tigers last year and had eight home runs, 30 RBIs and 15 steals. The club also added first baseman/DH Mike Napoli. He hit .224 with 18 home runs and 50 RBIs for Boston and Texas in 2015. Not too exciting.

Thus it's rather tough to project a batting order for this club right now because Brantley is so key to it all. He usually bats third. Second baseman Jason Kipnis (.300, 9 HRs, 52 RBIs) should lead off, and he's one of the best offensive players at his position in the game. Then likely shortstop Francisco Lindor, the team's former No. 1 prospect who looks like a future superstar. Lindor hit better in the majors than the minors, batting .313 with 15 HRs and 51 RBIs in 99 games. I'm not sure he's that good of a hitter, but he has a bright future.

Then presumably Brantley in the No. 3 hole, followed by Napoli and DH Carlos Santana (.231, 19 HRs, 85 RBIs), who has never lived up to his billing. The rest of the group likely will be right fielder Lonnie Chisenhall (.246, 7 HRs, 44 RBIs), who used to be the team's future at third base, catcher Yan Gomes (.231,12 HRs, 45 RBIs), new third baseman Juan Uribe (.253, 14 HRs, 43 RBIs) and Davis in center until Almonte comes back. Although a recent report from the Cleveland Plain Dealer says that Tyler Naguin could be the opening day starter in center. Naquin was limited to 84 games between Double- and Triple-A last season due to injury but is having a big spring.

That's not a very good lineup. The Indians were 18th in runs last year, and I don't see them being any better. This team made a mistake not adding an outfielder like an Ian Desmond or Dexter Fowler or Austin Jackson while they were lingering on the free-agent market. The Indians did just add Marlon Byrd. Not sure that solves anything.

Indians 2016 Projected Rotation & Closer

The rotation could be the best in the American League. It's led by 2014 Cy Young winner Corey Kluber, who had a very good 3.49 ERA and 245 strikeouts last year but was just 9-16 with little run support. He's a Top-10 guy in the majors. He'll be followed by Carlos Carrasco (14-12, 3.63) and Danny Salazar (14-10, 3.45). You have heard a lot of rumors that the Tribe might trade one of those two guys under team-friendly contracts for a big bat. The Cubs would seem to make a great partner at some point this season in that regard. Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projects Kluber and Carrasco to be the fourth and sixth most valuable pitchers in the majors this season.

Trevor Bauer (11-12, 4.55) slots in at No. 4, and the No. 5 spot is still to be determined between Josh Tomlin and Cody Anderson. Anderson came on last year to finish 7-3 with a 3.05 ERA, while Tomlin was just as effective in going 7-2 with a 3.03 ERA. Anderson is 25 and Tomlin 31, so I'm sure the Tribe would prefer it be Anderson. If you want to quibble with this rotation: it's all right-handed.

In the bullpen, Cody Allen (34 saves, 2.99 ERA) was very good in his first full season as a closer in 2015. He allowed only two homers in 70 appearances.

Indians Futures Odds

Cleveland is +1800 to win the World Series, +900 for the AL pennant, +185 in the AL Central and has an "over/under" wins total of 85 wins, with the over a -130 favorite. Kluber is +350 for the Cy Young, Carrasco is +800 and Salazar +2500. Kluber has an O/U of 13.5 wins.

Indians 2016 Predictions

FanGraphs projects Cleveland to finish 86-76 and first in the AL Central, five games ahead of Detroit. Baseball Prospectus has the Indians with 92 wins. That's crazy talk. Definitely go under a lot of this team's totals this season. I simply don't like that lineup enough. Go under the wins but over Kluber's total.

[NYK]

Re: MLB Betting Info. 4/3

2016 Chicago White Sox Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series
by Alan Matthews

In this space for 2016 team previews, I generally recap 2015. And I'm only going to do that quickly for the White Sox because of the odd story surrounding this team that overwhelmed the news cycle this spring for a while.

Chicago was very active last offseason in landing the likes of Jeff Samardzija, Melky Cabrera and closer David Robertson. I thought the Sox would contend in the AL Central, but they flopped with a 76-86 record that was better than only Detroit in the division. I was a bit surprised that Manager Robin Ventura was kept, but he remains a favorite of owner Jerry Reinsdorf from his playing days in Chicago and there simply is no more loyal owner in baseball than Reinsdorf.

Speaking of that loyalty, it brings me to team president Kenny Williams. I'm sure by now you know all about the Adam LaRoche issue, where Williams told his first baseman/DH that LaRoche's 14-year-old kid Drake couldn't be around the team every single day. By some reports, he had been with the club at least 120 games last year, meaning he obviously traveled with the Sox at times. He had his own locker next to dad at home as well as this spring in Arizona. Drake had been there every single day this spring, taking drills, in the clubhouse, traveling on buses -- the LaRoches are doing a version of home-schooling for Drake. Of course, LaRoche, in the final year of his contract, took umbrage with Williams' request and opted to walk away from $13 million.

I can't not give my opinion here. Williams was totally in the right. No kid should be in an adult workplace 100 percent of the time. Why isn't Drake in school around kids his own age? Sure, baseball has a history of letting children in the clubhouse, etc., but there's a certain line. And all Williams asked was that LaRoche dial it back to about 50 percent of the time. Totally reasonable request. Kudos to LaRoche for sticking to his principles, but what is he teaching his kid about quitting on your teammates?

Here's where things get interesting. Predictably, all the players backed LaRoche and said they loved having Drake around. Yet a USA Today report said some players and staffers had complained to the front office. So Williams might have taken a bullet for GM Rick Hahn and Ventura. Ace Chris Sale totally ripped Williams publicly, saying he flat-out lied for his reasons of limiting Drake's time with the team. Sale basically told Williams to stay the F*** out of clubhouse matters.

This whole episode is why no team is going to be more interesting the first few weeks of the season than the White Sox. They could pull together in their anger at Williams and become a better team -- those 1970s Yankees clubs under Billy Martin were always at war with Martin or the front office but they won. Or Chicago could struggle at first and implode internally, forcing Hahn to dump Ventura. Williams isn't going anywhere as Reinsdorf has backed the guy who won him a World Series in 2005 when Williams was the GM.

White Sox 2016 Projected Lineup

One thing you have to respect about the White Sox is they never full-blown tank like the crosstown Cubs did for a few seasons when Theo Epstein got there. The Sox live in the shadows of the Cubs as it is so they always try to win. This offseason was no different.

LaRoche probably won't be missed much even though he was penciled in as the nearly every-day DH. He hit just .207 with 12 homers and 44 RBIs last year. The Sox certainly would have spent his $13 million somewhere else had there been any good free agents on the market left when LaRoche took his ball and went home. Thus, it's a good thing that the White Sox signed outfielder Austin Jackson to a deal early this month. Now he's going to play every day.

Hahn's two biggest offseason acquisitions were trades for Brett Lawrie and Todd Frazier. Hahn had to do something with a lineup that ranked just 28th in runs and 26th in homers despite playing 81 games a year in hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field.

So with the late addition of Jackson and LaRoche's departure, this lineup is still a bit in flux. The top five seem set: leadoff hitter Adam Eaton (.287, 14 HRs, 56 RBIs, 18 steals) moves from center field to left, which is better for him defensively and should help him avoid injuries, which have plagued Eaton in the past with his all-out style in center. He will be followed by Lawrie, who hit .260 with 16 HRs and 60 RBIs last year with Oakland and moves to second base; that position was an offensive black hole for Chicago.

The Sox's best every-day player by far remains first baseman and No. 3 hitter Jose Abreu (.290, 30 HRs, 101 RBIs), who perhaps regressed ever so slightly from his amazing rookie season but was still excellent. Frazier will hit cleanup and is at third base. It cost the Sox some of their better prospects to land Frazier from the Reds in a three-team deal. Frazier hit .255 with 35 HRs and 89 RBIs in Cincinnati last year but struggled in the second half after winning the Home Run Derby. Cabrera (.273, 12 HR, 77 RBIs) did hit much better in the second half and will move from left to DH.

Things get a little unclear at this point. Jackson could hit sixth and will play center. He hit .267 with nine homers, 48 RBIs and 15 steals with Seattle and the Cubs last year. Avisail Garcia (.257, 13 HRs, 59 RBIs) has been a disappointment so far but is hitting this spring. He may hit seventh and play right, although also DH at times. The catcher platoon of Alex Avila and Dioner Navarro will hit eighth and then veteran shortstop Jimmy Rollins ninth. Rollins was originally signed to a minor-league deal at the start of camp but will win that job over Tyler Saladino. Be aware that Chicago's top prospect is shortstop Tim Anderson, so he could factor here later in the season if Rollins is clearly done.

This lineup will definitely be better. Still pretty weak at short and catcher, however. But the Sox do have that $13 million to potentially make an in-season upgrade.

White Sox 2016 Projected Rotation & Closer

Samardzjia left in free agency, but he was terrible in 2015 in leading MLB in earned runs. This should be the most left-handed rotation in the majors, although the Dodgers could also have four lefties if they ever get everyone healthy.

It all starts with the incomparable Sale (13-11, 3.41 ERA, 274 Ks). That ERA was actually the worst of his career, but also consider that the Sox had perhaps the majors' worst defense behind him and that's much better now all over the place. Sale's strikeout rate has improved every season. He's the definition of an ace.

While teams always call about Sale and the Sox always say no, they also inquire about Jose Quintana (9-10, 3.36 ERA), still one of the most underrated starters in baseball. It wouldn't shock me if Quintana was dealt this season for young hitting if the Sox struggle early.

Arguably the key to this season is Carlos Rodon, who was 9-6 with a 3.75 ERA as a rookie and has one of the most devastating sliders in the majors. He was dominant at the end of last year, going 5-2 with a 1.81 ERA in his last eight starts. The one worry with him is control. John Danks (7-15, 4.71) is thankfully in the last year of his huge deal but actually has been quite good this spring. And your lone righty is reclamation project Mat Latos (4-10, 4.95 ERA). He's on a one-year, low-cost deal that's worth the risk.

The bullpen is just OK as Robertson blew seven saves last season but did have 34 of them and a 3.41 ERA.

White Sox Futures Odds

Chicago is +3300 to win the World Series, +1600 for the AL pennant, +500 in the AL Central and has an "over/under" wins total of 81.5, with both options at -115. Abreu is +3300 to lead the majors in homers and +2500 to win AL MVP. He has a homers total of 30.5. Frazier is +4000 for MVP and has a homers total of 26.5. Sale is the +300 favorite for AL Cy Young and has a wins total of 13.5.

White Sox 2016 Predictions

FanGraphs projects Chicago to finish 80-82 and third in the AL Central, seven games behind Cleveland. USA Today has this team winning 90 games and the division. That's not impossible to see. Neither is 76 and last. That's the AL Central for you this year. Not ready to predict a division title but go over the wins, over Sale's wins, under Abreu's dingers (barely) but over Frazier's. If the Sox do win the Central, then that probably means Sale is your AL Cy Young. He's due one.

[NYK]

Re: MLB Betting Info. 4/3

2016 Arizona Diamondbacks Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series
by Alan Matthews

Teams that "win" the offseason rarely end up following that with a hugely successful season. Go ahead and discount the NBA because one star changes everything in that league. But in the NFL, take a look at the 2015 Miami Dolphins, for example. The year before, the Buccaneers won the offseason and flopped. Last offseason in baseball, everyone was praising the San Diego Padres and Chicago White Sox. Both finished at least 10 games below .500 in 2015.

That brings me to the 2016 Arizona Diamondbacks. They finished 79-83 last season under first-year manager Chip Hale. It was the team's fourth straight non-winning season and attendance had stagnated. It, frankly, had become a largely irrelevant franchise other than superstar first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. The Minnesota Twins of the National League so to speak.

That all changed this offseason as General Manger Dave Stewart and chief baseball officer Tony La Russa made some very bold decisions. The franchise blew every other team out of the water to lure Zack Greinke away from the Dodgers and made very controversial trades with Atlanta for pitcher Shelby Miller and Milwaukee for shortstop Jean Segura.

All the moves had major risks built in. The farm system has been plundered, especially from that Miller trade. The payroll will be the highest in team history. But the NL West could be there for the taking with the three-time defending champion Dodgers losing Greinke and suffering a ton of injuries this spring. The Snakes really had to do something to get some buzz going or local fans were going to start shifting their attention to the NFL's Cardinals once training camp started in late July.

Arizona opens the season April 4 at home vs. Colorado.

Diamondbacks 2016 Projected Lineup

Maybe the most underrated lineup in baseball even after losing vastly underrated outfielder Ender Inciarte (.303 average, 21 steals, great defender) in the Miller trade, infielder Aaron Hill in the Segura trade and catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia in free agency. Only the Inciarte loss will be felt much. Arizona finished seventh in runs last year, and all but two teams ahead of the Snakes, Boston (terrible pitching) and Colorado (only NL team ahead of Arizona), failed to make the playoffs.

I'm totally projecting this lineup because Hale didn't use one lineup more than five times last season.

Segura is moving from shortstop to second base (probably) and will leadoff. The Diamondbacks also acquired right-handed pitcher Tyler Wagner in the Segura deal from Milwaukee for righty Chase Anderson, Hill, minor league shortstop Isan Diaz and $6.5 million. If Arizona gets the Segura from 2013, then this is a steal. But he really hasn't been the same since. Segura hit .257 with six homers, 50 RBIs and 25 steals last season. He's still only 26, so I like the risk.

Or Hale could go with center fielder A.J. Pollock to hit first and Segura in the No. 2 hole. Pollock blew up last year, hitting .315 with 20 home runs, 76 RBIs and 39 steals. He was second in the NL in hits, fourth in doubles, second in runs scored, third in steals, fourth in wins above replacement and won a Gold Glove. Pollock has been dealing with some elbow issues this spring but should be ready for opening day.

Goldschmidt hits third and he's simply a Top-5 offensive player in the majors. He was the NL runner-up for the second time in three seasons, batting .321 with 33 homers and 110 RBIs while also winning a Gold Glove.

The rest of the lineup is where the pieces are really going to move around. Right fielder David Peralta (.312, 17 HRs, 78 RBIs) should hit cleanup, followed by left fielder Yasmany Tomas (.273, 9 HRs, 48 RBIs), the Cuban who has yet to prove whether he's worth that huge contract. The rest of the lineup likely will be third baseman Jake Lamb (.263, 6 HRs, 34 RBIs), catcher Welington Castillo (.237, 19 HRs, 57 RBIs) and shortstop Nick Ahmed, who is all glove and no bat. But Hale could also decide to go with Segura at his natural position of shortstop at times and put Chris Owings at second. Either way, it's not a great infield offensively other than Goldschmidt. The outfield has major potential.

Diamondbacks 2016 Projected Rotation & Closer

When will teams stop giving such massive long-term contracts to pitchers over the age of 30? But the Snakes had to overwhelm Greinke to get him to leave Los Angeles, and they did so with a six-year, $206 million contract. The Dodgers balked at giving a sixth guaranteed year to the 32-year-old who has thrown more than 33,000 major-league pitches. Greinke was 19-3 last season and led the major leagues with a 1.66 ERA, the lowest in 20 years, and a 0.84 WHIP. He was a close second in the NL Cy Young voting.

While Greinke only cost money, Miller cost the very good and young Inciarte and the No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 draft in shortstop Dansby Swanson, as well as pitching prospect Aaron Blair. A lot of experts panned the Snakes for giving up Swanson. But Miller is under team control for several more seasons and had a 3.02 ERA in 2015 -- disregard his 6-17 record (including 24-start winless streak) on a bad Atlanta team.

That's a strong 1-2 punch at the top. Only Robbie Ray had an ERA below 3.75 while making at least 20 starts for Arizona last season. The rest of the rotation should be lefty Patrick Corbin (6-5, 3.60 ERA), who should now be 100 percent off Tommy John surgery that cost him all of 2014 and half of last year, Rubby De La Rosa (14-9, 4.67) and Ray (5-12, 3.52).

Brad Ziegler (30-for-32 in save opportunities, 1.85 ERA) closes things out and he now has a great set-up man in new addition Tyler Clippard. He leads all major league relievers with 464 1/3 innings pitched since the start of the 2010 season.

Diamondbacks Futures Odds

Arizona is +2500 to win the World Series, +1200 for the NL pennant, +600 in the NL West and has an "over/under" wins total of 81.5, with the over a -135 favorite. Greinke is +2000 to win the NL Cy Young and Miller is +8000. Greinke has a wins total of 14.5 and Miller 11.5. Goldschmidt is +500 to win NL MVP and has a total of 30.5 homers.

Diamondbacks 2016 Predictions

FanGraphs projects Arizona to finish 80-82 and third in the NL West, 12 games behind the Dodgers. I'm fascinated to see if this grand experiment works. Few are smarter baseball guys than La Russa, but he has definitely mortgaged the future. I'm not ready to say this team is winning the NL West yet, but all those Dodgers injuries have left me less confident in L.A. I do love the over wins total here as well as over both pitchers' totals and on Goldschmidt's homers.

[NYK]

Re: MLB Betting Info. 4/3

2016 Tampa Bay Rays Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series
by Alan Matthews

Ever been to a Tampa Bay Rays home game at Tropicana Field? It's a complete and utter dump, the worst stadium in pro sports without question. It's part of the reason why the Rays don't draw flies. They averaged just 15,403 fans last year, last in the majors. It's also why ownership is looking for other stadium sites in the area. Good luck getting public funding for that, and you hear rumors this team might move in a few years to Montreal, which badly wants baseball back.

I mention the stadium issue because it's such a shame this team doesn't have more resources at its disposal because it's such a well-run franchise. The Rays lost one of the majors' best GMs last offseason in Andrew Friedman to the Dodgers, which opened a clause in the contract of Joe Maddon, probably the best manager in the majors. He took that opt out and landed with the Chicago Cubs.

Yet despite losing those two -- Tampa stayed in-house in replacing Friedman -- and another payroll that was among the lowest in the majors, and likely always will be, the Rays finished a very respectable 80-82. Manager Kevin Cash did a great job; the Tampa native has a lot of fans around baseball even though he had no managerial experience before last year. Cash was an ex-catcher in the majors and formerly the Indians' bullpen coach. The Rays like to think out of the box, and it usually works. Each of the previous four first-year managers with the Rays lost at least 99 games in his first full season. Maddon's first team was only 61-101.

The best way I can explain the 2016 Rays is that they are a lot like the Cleveland Indians. Tampa likely will struggle to hit, but if the Indians don't have the best rotation in the AL this season, the Rays might.

Tampa Bay opens the season April 3 at home against Toronto.

Rays 2016 Projected Lineup

The Rays said goodbye to shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, who had a really nice bounce-back season in 2015, and outfielder/catcher John Jaso, who was limited to only 185 at-bats last year due to injury but hit pretty well when in there.

As usual, the Rays were very quiet in free agency. Their big signing was getting former Orioles outfielder/first baseman/DH Steve Pearce on a one-year deal for a little under $5 million. Pearce, who is from nearby Lakeland, had a great 2014 season, hitting .293 with 21 homers and 49 RBIs in 102 games but fell off considerably last year, hitting .218 with 15 dingers and 40 RBIs in 92 games. Right now, Pearce doesn't have a starting spot but will get plenty of ABs backing up several spots.

Tampa also made two trades to boost the lineup, trading from its wealth of pitching. The Rays sent pitchers Nathan Karns and C.J. Riefenhauser and a minor league outfielder to Seattle for infielder/outfielder Brad Miller, first baseman Logan Morrison and pitcher Danny Farquhar. Morrison played in a career-high 146 games last season, hitting .225 with 17 homers. He should be the team's primary DH. The Rays are sticking Miller, a former top prospect, at shortstop. Miller hit .258 with 11 HRs and 46 RBIs in 2015.

The other deal was acquiring outfielder Corey Dickerson from Colorado for lefty reliever Jake McGee. Dickerson hit .304 last year with 10 homers and 31 RBIs in 65 games. Good young hitter but certainly some inflated numbers in Coors Field. More on McGee in a minute.

The lineup will begin with center fielder Kevin Kiermaier, who hit .263 with 10 HRs and 40 RBIs in 2015. Frankly, anything he does offensively is gravy. The guy is an absolute magician defensively and had the best defensive season in MLB history by one metric last year. His 42 defensive runs saved was the record for a statistic that has been around since 2003. Kiermaier also led all center fielders with 15 assists. Obviously he won a Gold Glove in his first full big-league season. Other teams were calling the Rays about him all winter.

Kiermaier will be followed by second baseman Logan Forsythe (.281, 17 HRs, 68 RBIs) and perhaps the only recognizable name on the roster to casual fans: third baseman Evan Longoria (.270, 21 HRs, 73 RBIs). Any team would love to have Longoria, who has gotten durable the past three seasons by playing at least 160 games in each. But he has underachieved a bit the past two.

The rest of the lineup: Dickerson in left, Morrison, first baseman James Loney (.280, 4 HRs, 32 RBIs, right fielder Steven Souza (.225, 16 HRs, 40 RBIs), catcher Rene Rivera/Curt Casali and Miller. The Rays gave up a lot to get Souza last offseason and they need him to stay in the lineup; he played 110 games last year. He has prodigious power potential.

The Rays were 25th in runs last year. Maybe this group can top out at 18th or so by adding Morrison, Miller and Dickerson. It's a deeper lineup now but still not a great one.

Rays 2016 Projected Rotation & Closer

This is where the Rays are going to win games, and with a lot of good young pitchers in the pipeline don't be surprised if one of these guys listed below is traded for a young bat at some point this season.

Well, All-Star Chris Archer (12-13, 3.23) isn't going to be traded unless the Rays get a monster return -- essentially, Archer is this team's Chris Sale: the one untouchable and the face of the franchise. Like Sale, Archer is also on a very team-friendly contract for the rest of this decade. Let's put it this way: the Dodgers could offer Corey Seager for Archer and I don't think the Rays would say yes.

Jake Odorizzi (9-9, 3.35), the last piece left from that James Shields to the Royals trade a few years ago, lefty Drew Smyly (5-2, 3.11), the key guy in the David Price trade at the 2014 deadline, Erasmo Ramirez (11-6, 3.75) and lefty Matt Moore (3-4, 5.43) finish up the rotation. Moore, as you can see, had his struggles last season after returning from Tommy John surgery but he has looked very good this spring. Remember how good he was in 2013?

The Rays were OK dealing McGee because they have an All-Star closer in Brad Boxberger, who led the American League with 41 saves in 2015 (also 4-10 with a 3.71 ERA, which isn't great). But Boxberger is going to miss at least eight weeks following abdominal surgery recently. So now it's likely closer by committee among Alex Colome, Xavier Cedeno, Farquhar, Steven Geltz and Ryan Webb. I still like that trade of McGee, however.

Rays Futures Odds

Tampa Bay is +4500 to win its first World Series, +2200 for the AL pennant, +700 in the AL East and has an "over/under" wins total of 82, with the over a -125 favorite. Longoria is +10000 to lead the majors in homers and is given a total of 22.5. Archer is +1200 to win the AL Cy Young and has a wins total of 12.5. Odorizzi is +8000 for the Cy.

Rays 2016 Predictions

FanGraphs projects Tampa to finish 81-81 and fourth in the AL East, seven games behind Boston. ESPN's Buster Olney picks the Rays to win the division. I'm not going that far. But I will go over the wins total as well as over Archer's total and Longoria's. I can see a potential wild-card spot.

[NYK]

Re: MLB Betting Info. 4/3

2016 Boston Red Sox Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series
by Alan Matthews

No sportsbook has put out the "first manager to be fired" prop yet, but I assure you that Boston's John Farrell is atop the list when it does happen. No manager is more on the hot seat entering the 2016 season.

What an odd tenure it has been for Farrell in Boston. The Red Sox went from worst to first in his first season and won the 2013 World Series. But they slumped to 71-91 and last in the AL East in 2014. It was only slightly better in 2015 with a 78-84 mark and another fifth-place finish. Ferrell missed the end of the season to deal with Lymphoma treatments and Boston played much better (27-20) under interim manager Torey Lovullo, normally the bench coach. He's a rising star in the managerial ranks, so the Red Sox probably won't waste any time dumping Farrell if they get off to a slow start and turn it over to Lovullo. He has interviewed for several managerial openings in recent years, becoming a finalist for the Minnesota Twins' job last offseason before Paul Molitor was hired. Reportedly some teams wanted to talk to him this past offseason, but Lovullo declined out of loyalty to his good friend Farrell. Lovullo refused to use Farrell's manager's office at Fenway Park or on the road while the interim manager last year. But loyalty only goes so far.

Also consider this: Dave Dombrowski, the new man in charge of the Boston front office hired during last season, didn't hire Farrell. So Dombrowski feels no loyalty toward keeping him if things go bad. What this season also will be all about is a 162-game curtain call for one of the most beloved Boston athletes ever: "Big Papi" David Ortiz, who has announced he will retire after this season and then should go into the Hall of Fame in five years. Expect plenty of tacky celebrations and gifts every time Ortiz visits a city for the last time.

Boston opens the season April 4 at Cleveland.

Red Sox 2016 Projected Lineup

Here were your top-four scoring teams in the majors last year: Toronto, NY Yankees, Texas and Boston. The big difference being that the Blue Jays won the AL East, the Yankees were a wild-card team and the Rangers took the AL West.

This Red Sox lineup should be excellent as it's basically untouched from last season. There were no major losses and the only addition was Chris Young, who will serve as a fourth outfielder.

Future perennial All-Star Mookie Betts plays right field and leads off. This guy has it all and hit .291 with 18 HRs, 77 RBIs and 21 steals last season. The Sox wouldn't trade him for anything. Second baseman Dustin Pedroia (.291, 12 HRs, 42 RBIs) bats second. Still a solid player but hasn't played more than 135 games the past two seasons.

Boston's other young rising superstar and untouchable is shortstop Xander Bogaerts, who will hit third. He batted .320 with seven HRs and 81 RBIs in 2015. Scouting reports have suggested he could hit 20-30 homers in his prime, and he's about to enter that. I expect at least 15. Big Papi hits cleanup. He batted .273 with 37 homers and 108 RBIs last year. How realistic is it to think he can match those numbers at age 40?

Now we come to the question marks: Hanley Ramirez (.249, 19 HRs, 53 RBIs) moves from left field to first base this season and then surely to DH next year if the Red Sox can't trade him. Ramirez bats fifth with Pablo Sandoval (.245, 10 HRs, 47 RBIs) batting sixth. Both guys were mega-busts in their first seasons in Boston -- by some advanced stats, the two worst every-day players in the AL when you include defense -- and the Sox would love to give them away (their deals were signed under the old regime), but their contracts make that impossible. One big story of Red Sox camp is how fat Sandoval showed up after the Sox told him to get into shape this offseason. When some guys get the big contracts, they stop caring.

No. 7 hitter and Cuban left fielder Rusney Castillo (.253, 5 HRs, 29 RBIs) is still a mystery but starting to look like a potential high-paid bust as well. Catcher Blake Swihart (.274, 5 HRs, 31 RBIs) and center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. (.249, 10 HRs, 43 RBIs) round things out. The Sox have a good super-utility guy in Brock Holt who can play just about everywhere but catcher if a regular gets hurt or struggles.

Some major potential for this group, no question about it. I think Ramirez will be better offensively but have given up on Sandoval. Ortiz will regress some. No clue what Castillo actually is. Love Betts and Bogaerts.

Red Sox 2016 Projected Rotation & Closer

Since Boston was so good offensively last year, I'm sure you can deduce that the pitching staff was a mess. And it was. The Sox ranked No. 25 in ERA at 4.31. The 2015 team went into the season with some apparent good depth but no true ace and it really showed. There was no one to stop a losing streak. One of those starters, lefty Wade Miley, was traded to Seattle after a disappointing season.

So Dombrowski addressed that in a big way by signing the top free agent on the market in left-hander David Price. He got a cool $217 million over seven years. Dombrowski was the guy who acquired Price in Detroit at the 2014 trade deadline and then sent him to Toronto at the 2015 deadline -- and was then fired soon after. Last season, Price went 18-5 with a 2.45 ERA with Detroit and Toronto, striking out 225. He was runner-up in the Cy Young voting. Price is great and has been durable. The only worry: He is 0-7 with a 5.27 career ERA in eight career postseason starts.

Clay Buchholz (7-7, 3.26) slots into a No. 2 role he is better suited for. The Sox gave Rick Porcello a huge extension early last season, and that blew up on them as he was 9-15 with a 4.92 ERA. Joe Kelly (10-6, 4.82) is the No. 4 guy and the No. 5 was supposed to be promising youngster Eduardo Rodriguez (10-6, 3.85). But the lefty is likely to miss at least the first three weeks with a knee issue. So either Steven Wright or Roenis Elias, acquired in the Miley deal, will open as the fifth starter.

Dombrowski's big trade of the offseason was getting one of the majors' top closers, Craig Kimbrel, from San Diego for four prospects. Kimbrel went 4-2 with a 2.58 ERA and 39 saves last season for the Padres. He struck out 87 in 59 1/3 innings. The Sox gave up a good haul to get Kimbrel, but he's lights out. That moves former closer Koji Uehara to a set-up role if healthy.

Red Sox Futures Odds

Boston is +1400 to win the World Series, +650 for the AL pennant, +185 in the AL East (just behind Toronto) and has an "over/under" wins total of 87.5, with the under a -120 favorite. Ortiz is +6600 to lead the majors in homers and is given a total of 27.5. Betts is +1000 to win AL MVP and has as total of 23.5 steals. Price is a +400 second-favorite to win the Cy Young and has a wins total of 15.5.

Red Sox 2016 Predictions

FanGraphs projects Boston to finish 88-74 and first in the AL West by four games. I do think this division comes down to the Blue Jays or Red Sox, and when I previewed Toronto I had it finishing second mainly because it lost Price to Boston. Nothing has changed my mind since writing that about a month ago. Sox win the East, go over the wins. Over Price's wins and he takes the Cy Young thanks to great run support. Under on Big Papi dingers. Over on Betts steals.

[NYK]

Re: MLB Betting Info. 4/3

2016 Seattle Mariners Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series
by Alan Matthews

A lot of people liked the Seattle Mariners to win their first AL pennant last year. I was one of them. Seattle was a +550 co-favorite with Boston for the pennant when I previewed the M's last spring and had a wins total of 86.5. FanGraphs projected them to finish 88-74 and first in the AL West. I agreed and did believe they'd win the pennant.

Oops. Seattle finished 76-86, a decrease of 11 wins from 2014. This team hasn't made the playoffs since winning a record 116 games in 2001. That's the longest drought in the majors.

Late last August when it became evident that the Mariners were going nowhere, the team fired General Manager Jack Zduriencik, exactly one year to the day he was praised by team president Kevin Mather and given a contract extension. He deserved to go as since Zduriencik's first season with the Mariners in 2009, the team has the fifth-worst record in baseball. About a month after Zduriencik's firing, the club replaced him with Jerry Dipoto. He was the Angels' general manager for 3½ years before resigning last July 1 following clashes with manager Mike Scioscia.

Dipoto's first job in Seattle was to decide on the future of Manager Lloyd McClendon, and he was canned. McClendon finished 163-161, joining Lou Piniella as the only managers in Mariners history to have a winning record. Dipoto chose former big-league catcher Scott Servais as his manager. He was also a former assistant GM with the Angels, so obviously Dipoto knows him well. Dipoto and Servais, the 17th manager in club history, also played together with the Colorado Rockies in 2000. Servais has no managerial experience, but that hardly seems to matter these days around baseball, especially if you are a former catcher.

Seattle opens the season next Monday at Texas.

Mariners 2016 Projected Lineup

Dipoto has been perhaps the busiest GM this offseason, turning over nearly half of the team's 40-man roster either through trades or free-agent additions or subtractions. The losses from the every-day lineup weren't much: infielder Brad Miller and first basemen/DHs Logan Morrison and Mark Trumbo.

One new addition will hit leadoff, and that's left fielder Nori Aoki. He's poor-man's version of former Mariners star Ichiro Suzuki, as Aoki hit .287 with 14 steals and a .353 on-base percentage last season. Dipoto traded Trumbo to free up money to sign Aoki.

Shortstop Ketel Marte is likely to hit second. He was a late-season call-up in 2015 and hit .283 with eight steals and 17 RBIs in 219 at-bats with an on-base percentage of .351. So you can see what Dipoto is going for here: guys who can get on base.

The 3-4-5 group is an excellent trio of second baseman Robinson Cano (.287, 21 HRs, 79 RBIs), DH Nelson Cruz (.302, 44 HRs, 93 RBIs) and third baseman Kyle Seager (.266, 26 HRs, 74 RBIs). Cano's numbers overall were a tad disappointing, but he really caught fire in the second half last season; some stomach issues plagued him in the first half. Cano had offseason surgery to repair a double hernia. I'm shocked Cruz hit that many homers -- second in MLB -- playing in pitcher-friendly Safeco Field half the time. I think that batting average was a bit of a fluke and don't see him nearing 40 dingers again. Maybe 35 if all goes well. Seager is Mr. Consistent has he has hit at least 22 homers in three straight seasons and played at least 159 games in each of those.

New addition Adam Lind will hit sixth and play first base. He was acquired from Milwaukee for pitching prospects and hit .277 with 20 homers and 87 RBIs in 2015. The lefty Lind kills right-handed pitching but struggles against southpaws. Right fielder Seth Smith (.248, 12 HRs, 42 RBIs), catcher Chris Iannetta (.188, 10 HRs, 34 RBIs) and center fielder Leonys Martin (.219, 14 steals) round out the lineup. The latter two are new additions, Iannetta a free agent and Martin acquired in trade from Texas. They aren't much offensively but both are good on defense.

Mariners 2016 Projected Rotation & Closer

Everyone was so high on Seattle entering last season largely because of its pitching. But that group disappointed with a combined 4.16 ERA, which was 22nd. The M's dealt one member of that rotation, lefty Roenis Elias, to Boston along with solid set-up man Carson Smith for starting lefty Wade Miley. He went 11-11 with a 4.46 ERA in his only season with the Red Sox.

Miley slots in as a No. 3 behind Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma. King Felix won 18 games last year but actually wasn't quite as good as usual with a 3.53 ERA and "only" 191 strikeouts in 201.2 innings. His innings, strikeouts and ERA all represented at least seven-year worsts. Are all those innings catching up to him? Iwakuma (9-5, 3.54) was set to sign a free-agent deal with the Dodgers before they saw something in his physical they didn't like. Iwakuma pitched the first no-hitter of his career in August against Baltimore and was 4-2 with a 2.17 ERA over his final seven starts.

The rest of the rotation is Miley, inconsistent but ultra-talented youngster Taijuan Walker (11-8, 4.56) and Nathan Karns, who was 7-5 with a 3.67 ERA with Tampa Bay. Karns came over from the Rays for Miller, Morrison and reliever Danny Farquhar. Karns led American League rookies in innings pitched and strikeouts.

The closer should be Steve Cishek (2-6, 3.58 ERA, four saves). He parlayed a strong finish after a trade to the Cardinals into a two-year, $10 million contract with the Mariners. Not sure he will keep that job. The Mariners acquired reliever Joaquin Benoit from San Diego and he's a former closer.

Mariners Futures Odds

Seattle is +2800 to win the World Series, +1200 for the AL pennant, +375 in the AL West and has an "over/under" wins total of 83, with the over a -125 favorite. Cruz is +2000 to lead the majors in homers and +5000 to win AL MVP. He has a homers total of 32.5. Cano is +4000 for MVP. Hernandez is +700 for AL Cy Young and has a wins total of 14.5.

Mariners 2016 Predictions

FanGraphs projects Seattle to finish 82-80 and second in the AL West, five games behind Houston. I like this rotation a lot as well as the middle of the lineup. Not a huge fan of the rest of the lineup or the bullpen. I'll go under the wins as that playoff drought continues. Go over Hernandez's wins and under Cruz's homers.

[NYK]

Re: MLB Betting Info. 4/3

2016 San Diego Padres Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series
by Alan Matthews

No team had a bigger makeover last offseason than the San Diego Padres, who had become the Minnesota Twins of the National League: i.e. irrelevant and faceless.

New General Manager A.J. Preller thus went nuts once ownership agreed to raise payroll to what would prove to be a franchise high total. The Padres figured to at worst be interesting with some big bats like Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Derek Norris and Wil Myers, all trade acquisitions of Preller's. One problem: Preller pretty much overlooked how bad defensively that outfield was going to be. And he didn't do anything to upgrade one of the majors' worst infields.

San Diego had a wins total of 84.5 last spring and was the second-favorite to win the NL West behind the Dodgers. I recommended under and said the Padres would only return to the playoffs if Kemp played at least 150 games and at an MVP level as he had a couple of years ago.

The Padres flopped big-time, finishing 74-88 -- three fewer wins than 2014 -- and fourth in the NL West. Manager Bud Black was fired in mid-June. Not sure how he even lasted as long as he did in San Diego considering the Padres never reached the playoffs during Black's tenure after he took over when Bruce Bochy departed to manage the Giants in 2007.

The Padres were 42-54 under interim coach Pat Murphy, and he was fired the day after the season ended. This offseason, Preller hired Diamondbacks third-base coach Andy Green to replace Black. Green was 219-189 in four earlier seasons as a manager in Arizona's farm system. I'd say Preller's job security is definitely tenuous entering this season because he so thoroughly gutted the farm system last offseason in all those trades.

San Diego opens the season Monday at home vs. the Dodgers.

Padres 2016 Projected Lineup

San Diego was never going to keep Upton and was more than happy to take the compensatory draft pick when he signed with Detroit. Upton wasn't bad last year, hitting .251 with 26 homers and 81 RBIs, but it was a down year overall for him. Another regular, first baseman Yonder Alonso, was traded to Oakland for pitcher Drew Pomeranz and a pitching prospect. Alonso hit a team-best .282 but was limited to 103 games due to injury. Also gone: second baseman Jedd Gyorko (.247, 16 HRs, 57 RBIs), shortstop Clint Barmes and third baseman Will Middlebrooks.

The new leadoff hitter should be center fielder Jon Jay, who came over from St. Louis in the Gyorko trade. Jay was limited to 79 games last year and hit just .210 with one homer. He's not a bad player but should be a fourth outfielder ideally. Third baseman Yangervis Solarte (.270, 14 HRs, 63 RBIs) will hit second.

Then comes Kemp (.265, 23 HRs, 100 RBIs) in right field. His numbers weren't too bad last year, and he actually hit well other than in May and June. He also played in 154 games, so that was a positive. But his ceiling at this point is probably what he did in 2015.

Not long ago, Myers (.253, 8 HRs, 29 RBIs) was perhaps the top hitting prospect in baseball and the AL Rookie of the Year. But he can't stay healthy. Perhaps playing first base instead of the outfield will help Myers. The team's "big" free-agent acquisition was former White Sox shortstop Alexei Ramirez (.249, 10 HRs, 62 RBIs). He can only be an improvement on what the Padres got from that position offensively last year.

The catcher Norris (.250, 14 HRs, 62 RBIs), left fielder Melvin Upton (.259, 5 HRs, 17 RBIs) and second baseman Cory Spangenberg (.271, 4 HRs, 21 RBIs) round out the lineup. Spangenberg is having a good spring and could move up to second in the lineup.

On paper, this looks like one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. The Padres were 23rd in runs last year, and this group looks weaker.

Padres 2016 Projected Rotation & Closer

This was supposed to be one of the best overall staffs in baseball in 2015 with the addition of James Shields, but the Padres finished just 20th in team ERA despite playing 81 home games in pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Shields (13-7, 3.91) was just OK, walking 81 (second in NL) and allowing 33 dingers. The Padres would love to trade him, but he's owed $65 million combined over the next three seasons. You have heard some rumors of Shields to Boston for overpriced third baseman Pablo Sandoval.

Speaking of trades, don't be surprised if Tyson Ross is shipped out at some point this season. Ross (10-12, 3.26) has a lot of value around MLB because he's on a very good contract through 2017. The Padres aren't going anywhere by then, so I expect him to be gone for young hitting by the July 31 deadline. Cubs are often mentioned. Andrew Cashner (6-16, 4.34) is another guy who could be moved.

The rest of the rotation should be some mix of Colin Rea, Pomeranz, Robbie Erlin and Dan Straily, who was just acquired this week from Houston. San Diego lost starters Ian Kennedy (free agency) and Odrisamer Despaigne (minor trade).

Preller did somewhat help his farm system this offseason by landing four prospects from Boston for closer Craig Kimbrel, another guy Preller sold the farm for last year. Kimbrel did his job with a 2.58 ERA and 39 saves. But no point paying top dollar for a closer when you aren't likely winning much. Past-his-prime Fernando Rodney, 39, likely will close to start things off. He had 16 saves and 4.74 ERA last year with the Mariners and Cubs. Kevin Quackenbush could take that job sooner or later if he's not also traded.

Padres Futures Odds

San Diego is +12500 to win the World Series, +8000 for the NL pennant, +2800 in the NL West and has an "over/under" wins total of 73.5, with the under a -140 favorite. Ross is +5000 to win the Cy Young and Shields is +6600. Ross has a wins total of 10.5 and Shields 11.5. No hitting props listed for the Padres. Tells you all about their lineup.

Padres 2016 Predictions

FanGraphs projects San Diego to finish 74-88 and tied for last in the NL West, 18 games behind the Dodgers. I suppose if everything broke right and Shields, Ross and Cashner stayed on the roster all season, then this team could finish .500. Doubtful. I will go over those wins solely because it's such a small total. Go over both win totals too on Ross and Shields because they might be pitching the second half of the season on contender