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NBA Betting Info. 3/23

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  • #31
    Re: NBA Betting Info. 3/23

    NBA Betting Roadmap, Week 22
    by Al McMordie
    NBA Betting Roadmap, Week 22
    The Game of the Century, Part II lived up to expectations (unlike the first meeting), as San Antonio won a thriller, 87-79, against Golden State. The Spurs hounded Steph Curry by switching on defense, and effectively took away his biggest weapon — the three-point shot. San Antonio also controlled the pace. The game had just 90 possessions, 12 less than the Warriors’ average. The result was that the Warriors scored just 79 points, their lowest output in 212 games. More importantly, it moved the Spurs to within three games of the Warriors, with two more meetings to go, so the #1 seed is still up for grabs. The games this week won’t have the stature of Spurs/Warriors, but there’s still money to be made. Let’s take a look.
    Spread Watch
    The maddenly inconsistent (or consistently maddening) Cavaliers lost all four of their games to the spread last week. And it was capped off by a 122-101 blowout loss in Miami, as a 4-point favorite. For all of Tyronn Lue’s bluster, in his first press conference as coach, about doing things “better” than David Blatt, he hasn’t. Cleveland was 30-11 SU and 19-21-1 ATS under Blatt this season. It gave up just 95.7 ppg, and outscored its foes by 5.65 ppg. With Lue at the Helm, the Cavs are 19-9 SU and 12-15-1 ATS. One of Lue’s goals was to increase his team’s pace of play. Understandably, the Cavs are now giving up more points per game (101.0). But, importantly, their defensive field-goal percentage has significantly declined. Under Blatt, the Cavs ranked in the Top 10 (44%), but they rank in the bottom half (46%) since the coaching change. This week, Cleveland has games against four really bad teams (Denver, Milwaukee, Brooklyn and New York), each at least 10 games below .500. I like Cleveland to find success this week, as it’s won nine straight games vs. foes that were at least 10 games under .500 (6-3 ATS), and is 27-6 SU and 20-13 ATS the past two seasons against such cupcakes (including 11-5 ATS if the Cavs were off an ATS loss).
    Total Watch
    When the Miami Heat signed Joe Johnson, they were 29th in points per game (96.9), ahead of just the Philadelphia 76ers (95.8 ppg). And they were 36-21-1 ‘Under’ the total. Since then, the Heat’s offense has taken off. It’s averaged 112.0 ppg, better than any team in the league, except for Golden State (115.0). Not surprisingly, the Heat have gone ‘Over’ the total in eight of 11, including each of their last six games. Can their high-scoring games continue? Miami’s first game this week will be at New Orleans, on Tuesday. New Orleans just decided to shut down its best defensive player, Anthony Davis, for the season. And New Orleans has also been giving up a ridiculous amount of points. Since March 5, the Pels have surrendered 113.2 ppg, and have gone ‘Over’ the total in eight of nine games. Moreover, six of the last nine meetings between Miami and New Orleans have sailed ‘Over’ the total. Tuesday’s game seems to be a great candidate for a high-scoring contest.
    Injury Watch
    Houston lost its 3rd straight game to the spread when it fell, 109-97, to the Hawks on Saturday. But more worrisome is that James Harden (28.6 ppg; 7.2 apg) injured his foot when he landed on Thabo Sefolosha in the 3rd quarter. Harden continued to play, but failed to register a point or assist the remainder of the game. Harden is questionable to play at Oklahoma City, on Tuesday. Then, on Wednesday, looms a huge game vs. Utah, which sits just one game behind Houston in the battle for the Playoffs. But if there is a silver lining, it’s that Houston has gone 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS since November 23, 2013 without Harden in the lineup. So, even if Harden doesn’t play vs. OKC, bettors might want to take a shot with the Rockets. More ammunition for Houston on Tuesday: it’s 64-36-3 ATS on the road off three pointspread losses.
    Schedule Watch
    The Spurs and Warriors are a combined 67-0 straight-up at home this season (39-27-1 ATS). This week, the Spurs will try to stretch their season record to 37-0 with home games vs. Miami and Memphis. Meanwhile, the Warriors can move to 35-0 at home by besting the Clippers, Mavericks and Sixers. The oddsmakers have certainly made adjustments, so it hasn’t been profitable to play on these two juggernauts at home since February 1 (combined 10-10 ATS). But the one spot which has been lining bettors’ pockets all season has been to play on these two teams at home off an ATS defeat. They’re 22-7 ATS in this situation. Of the five Spurs/Warriors home games this week, the one which stands out to me is Golden State’s game on Wednesday vs. the Clips. If the Warriors happen to lose ATS at Minnesota, on Monday, then they would be a solid play vs. the Clippers, especially since L.A. is an awful 12-33-1 ATS since December 13, 2005 vs. foes with an .857 (or better) home win percentage. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

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    • #32
      Re: NBA Betting Info. 3/23

      Wednesday’s Tip Sheet
      By Kevin Rogers
      ‘Tuesday Review’
      Favorites:
      3-1 straight-up, 1-3 against the spread
      Biggest underdog to win outright:
      Lakers (+3 ½) 107-100 over the Grizzlies
      Totals:
      2-2 to the ‘under’
      Highest total on board:
      226 ½, Thunder beat Rockets, 111-107
      Lowest total on board:
      202 ½, Lakers beat Grizzlies, 107-100
      Clippers at Warriors (-9 ½, 225 ½) – 10:35 PM EST
      Golden State (63-7 SU, 39-29-2 ATS) continues to march towards history as the Warriors sit 10 wins away from breaking the Bulls’ 1995-96 record of 72 victories in a season. Steve Kerr’s club goes for the four-game sweep of the rival Clippers as Golden State has beaten Los Angeles three times this season, all by seven points or fewer. The Clippers grabbed a late cover as four-point underdogs in the last matchup at Staples Center on February 20, outscoring the Warriors by seven points in the second half of a 115-112 setback.
      The Warriors return home following a 2-1 road swing, which included an 87-79 defeat at San Antonio on Saturday night. Stephen Curry put together his worst shooting performance of the season by converting only 1-of-12 shots from three-point range, while the Warriors misfired on 27-of-36 attempts from long distance. Golden State finished up its trip by holding off a feisty Minnesota squad on Monday, 109-104 to pick up its eighth victory in its past nine games, while finishing ‘under’ the total for the third time in four contests.
      The Clippers (43-26 SU, 32-34-3 ATS) have gone backwards of late, losing five of their past seven games, while trying to close out this five-game road swing with a victory. Los Angeles owns a 1-3 SU/ATS record through the first four contests, including back-to-back defeats at Memphis and New Orleans as heavy favorites. Is there value in Los Angeles as a road underdog? Doc Rivers’ squad has put together a 2-5 SU/ATS mark in the last seven opportunities as an away ‘dog since January, but covered in its only visit to Oakland this season in a 112-108 loss as 7 ½-point underdogs in early November.
      Hawks (-1, 209) at Wizards – 7:05 PM EST
      The three top teams in the Southeast division all have won 41 games so far as Atlanta (41-30 SU, 37-33-1 ATS) looks to start a new winning streak after getting tripped up by Washington on Monday. The Wizards topped the Hawks at Philips Arena, 117-102 as 6 ½-point underdogs to end Atlanta’s five-game hot streak, as the Washington backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal combined to score 52 points. Washington snapped a four-game losing skid to Atlanta dating back to last season’s playoffs, as the Wizards extended its winning streak to five.
      During this strong stretch for Washington (35-35 SU, 36-34 ATS), Randy Wittman’s club has managed to reach the .500 mark and get within 1 ½ games of the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Washington allowed over 100 points for the first time in five contests on Monday, as the Wizards have cashed the ‘under’ in four of five games during this winning streak. The Wizards have taken back home-court advantage at the Verizon Center after a sluggish start by winning eight of nine home games since the All-Star break.
      The Hawks have performed well on the highway recently by posting a 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS mark in the past seven games away from Philips Arena, including victories over the Pistons, Bulls, and Clippers. Atlanta is visiting D.C. for the first time since eliminating Washington in Game 6 of the second round of last season’s playoffs, 94-91 as 2 ½-point underdogs.
      Raptors at Celtics – 7:35 PM EST
      Toronto (48-21 SU, 38-31 ATS) can basically put away Boston and creep closer to an Atlantic division crown with a victory at TD Garden. The Raptors have won each of the first three meetings with the Celtics this season, including a 105-91 home triumph last Friday night as 1 ½-point favorites. Dwane Casey’s team has eclipsed the 105-point mark in all three wins over the Celtics, while winning seven of the past nine matchups against their division rivals dating back to 2014.
      The Raptors embark on a three-game road trip that continues to Houston and New Orleans, as Toronto has won four straight games. During this hot streak, the ‘under’ has cashed four times, while the Raptors are coming off a 105-100 victory on Sunday against the Magic, but didn’t cover as 9 ½-point favorites. Toronto has played 12 of 17 games since the All-Star break at home, as the Raps own a 3-2 SU/ATS record in its past five contests away from the Air Canada Center.
      The Celtics (41-30 SU, 38-32-1 ATS) have taken care of business at home with a 24-12 record, but have struggled against the upper-tier teams in the league at TD Garden. Boston has lost to Oklahoma City, Atlanta, Golden State, San Antonio, and Cleveland at home this season, while also dropping a 113-103 decision to Toronto in the second game of the season in late October. Since losing to the Pistons at home in early January, the Celtics have won 15 of their last 17 contests at TD Garden.
      Heat at Spurs (-11 ½, 195) – 8:35 PM EST
      Miami finished off San Antonio to capture its second straight title in 2013, but the Spurs have won eight of the last nine matchups between these teams. The Heat (41-29 SU, 37-32-1 ATS) plays with no rest after knocking off a decimated New Orleans squad on Tuesday, 113-99 to cash as 10-point road favorites. Miami continues to score plenty of points as the ‘over’ hit for the seventh straight time last night, while the Heat improved to 9-3 SU and 7-5 ATS since acquiring shooting guard Joe Johnson at the end of February.
      The Spurs (59-11 SU, 41-29 ATS) suffered an uncharacteristic meltdown in Monday’s 91-88 setback at Charlotte by blowing an early 23-point lead. San Antonio is seeking its fifth season of at least 60 wins under Gregg Popovich, as the Spurs have yet to suffer a loss at the AT&T Center this season by going 35-0. The Spurs have struggled of late to cover numbers by putting together a 3-7 ATS mark in the past 10 games overall, including a 1-4 ATS ledger as a home favorite of at least eight points in this span.

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