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  • Re: horse plays

    del mar


    R1 #6 don'teatmycookies (7-2)

    useful debut at 1 level above showed speed and a fairly even fade.. could see better effort here vs lesser with that under her belt.. no problem with this up for 40k with her pedigree
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

    Comment


    • Re: horse plays

      Here are Goldberg's picks for the Travers Stakes.

      (10)Tenfold (8-1) - He won the Jim Dandy at the track, over Curlin. He's bred to go this distance, has a good running style. He had a good race at the Preakness, got bumped but had a chance to win that race. And that was against Justify and Bravazo. This is a race he can win.

      (4)Bravazo (12-1) - He got (sent out quick) and didn't run his race at the Belmont. Now he's fresh and he'll be closing. He's a quality horse.

      (9)Good Magic (2-1) - Trainer Chad Brown ran him at the Haskell because he didn't want to run against the Jim Dandy field. But now he's going against them in this race, and I don't think he can win.

      (3)Gronkowski (4-1) - He had a good race at the Belmont, his second race with Chad Brown, his second race (in the U.S.). Nobody really expected him to do that well in the Belmont, and he surprised everybody by closing the way he did to finish second. Chad's a great trainer. He'll be making up a lot of ground. I put him just ahead of Gadot.

      (2)Wonder Gadot (5-1) - I have the filly finishing just behind Gronk.

      (11)Catholic Boy (8-1) - He's a good horse, another closer. He will be there at the finish line. I wouldn't toss him out, I just like other horses better. He's run against lesser competition. Mendelssohn beat him pretty good. He might have the lead for a little while. He's got ability.

      (8)Mendelssohn (12-1) - Not considering

      (5)Vino Rosso (10-1) - I don't like Vino Rosso.

      (7)King Zachary (15-1) - Not considering

      (1)Trigger Warning (30-1) - Not considering

      (6)Meistermind (30-1) - Not considering

      EXOTICS

      Exacta: 10-4

      "The Exacta would pay well with Tenfold on top. That's where the value will be."

      Trifecta box: 10-4-9

      Superfecta: 10-4-9-3

      "You could do a box, or Tenfold at the top

      Comment


      • Re: horse plays

        Originally posted by Jim13 View Post
        Here are Goldberg's picks for the Travers Stakes.

        (10)Tenfold (8-1) - He won the Jim Dandy at the track, over Curlin. He's bred to go this distance, has a good running style. He had a good race at the Preakness, got bumped but had a chance to win that race. And that was against Justify and Bravazo. This is a race he can win.

        (4)Bravazo (12-1) - He got (sent out quick) and didn't run his race at the Belmont. Now he's fresh and he'll be closing. He's a quality horse.

        (9)Good Magic (2-1) - Trainer Chad Brown ran him at the Haskell because he didn't want to run against the Jim Dandy field. But now he's going against them in this race, and I don't think he can win.

        (3)Gronkowski (4-1) - He had a good race at the Belmont, his second race with Chad Brown, his second race (in the U.S.). Nobody really expected him to do that well in the Belmont, and he surprised everybody by closing the way he did to finish second. Chad's a great trainer. He'll be making up a lot of ground. I put him just ahead of Gadot.

        (2)Wonder Gadot (5-1) - I have the filly finishing just behind Gronk.

        (11)Catholic Boy (8-1) - He's a good horse, another closer. He will be there at the finish line. I wouldn't toss him out, I just like other horses better. He's run against lesser competition. Mendelssohn beat him pretty good. He might have the lead for a little while. He's got ability.

        (8)Mendelssohn (12-1) - Not considering

        (5)Vino Rosso (10-1) - I don't like Vino Rosso.

        (7)King Zachary (15-1) - Not considering

        (1)Trigger Warning (30-1) - Not considering

        (6)Meistermind (30-1) - Not considering

        EXOTICS

        Exacta: 10-4

        "The Exacta would pay well with Tenfold on top. That's where the value will be."

        Trifecta box: 10-4-9

        Superfecta: 10-4-9-3

        "You could do a box, or Tenfold at the top

        thanks jim.. getting there but still haven't looked at travers


        saratoga saturday

        R6.. h allen jerkens gI @7f

        #6 gidu (10-1)

        don't associate horses by frankel doing well on dirt as he was arguably one of the best turf horses of the last half century.. this guy has contested mega fast paces on the front end in turf routes 3 times including his last.. has had multiple quick works at belmont on the dirt ..with dirt influence on the bottom (unbridled song) thinking he may take to it just fine.. 2 back finished 6th by a little over 2 lengths in a 22 horse grade I race at ascot.. can't have any tougher competition than that


        R9.. forego G1 @ 7f

        #4 heartwood (30-1)

        ships in from mountaineer to try the big boys.. when this guy gets out and runs his race he's tough as nails.. very gritty and doesn't fold when pressured... many of the bad races can be excused.. bad trips, starts and once on the poly at turfway.. as good as the top 2 of course not but think he'll offer value in here.. big bias towards posts 4+ at this distance which works in his favor also


        R10 sword dancer G1 @ 1½ miles turf

        #4 hi happy (6-1)

        understand he was beat by #1 and gave it up pretty bad.. I still feel back on firm ground and with his consistency with marathon routes in his 3 races prior you'll get a better effort.. marathon turf routes heavily favor speed at this track also helps..finally his bottom running line is beating a 20 horse field at 1½ miles on the turf in argentina.. $348000 huge money down there so guessing that's there biggest race


        R11 travers GI @ 1¼ miles dirt

        R1 #1 trigger warning (30-1)

        the ohio derby race 2 back to me numbers-wise (factoring pace) lines up with almost any one in here and was at 1⅛ miles to boot.. came back in 3 weeks to try the indiana derby and just missed by a head.. thinking the 3 week turnaround might've been tough.. now well rested (6 weeks) maybe he could produce something similar to the ohio derby.. and of course because it's the hio derby and a low profile midwest trainer he'll be balloons


        #7 king zachary (15-1) half unit

        well bred, expensive and distance pedigree top bottom.. has shown some decent ability and take a flyer he can improve further.. working big at saratoga and roman's 88/30% off a loss as a beaten favorite



        dmr

        R4 #7 untouched elegance (6-1)
        R5 #2 springtime dance (20-1)

        R10 #4 paladar (5-1)
        Last edited by bleeker; 08-25-2018, 07:07 PM.
        _______________________________________________
        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

        Comment


        • Re: horse plays

          added R10
          _______________________________________________
          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

          Comment


          • Re: horse plays

            added travers
            _______________________________________________
            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

            Comment


            • Re: horse plays

              added R10 dmr
              _______________________________________________
              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

              Comment


              • Re: horse plays

                saratoga

                R2 #10 choate bridge... first time starter (fts)

                home bred with a very nice pedigree top and bottom.. dam stakes placed, 4 winners from as many starters and 3 of those won on turf including 1 stakes winner . trainer avg and below avg stats in this category ..that's good imo as it helps with the price


                #2 trish the dish (8-1) half unit


                R5 #6 wheedle (12-1) (fts)

                not going to go over the whole thing but just say big time specs along the lines of what I look for
                in fts


                R10 #2 spa jazz (5-1)


                del mar


                R4

                there are 3 mega expensive horses (fts) in here and all of them besides being so pricey are also expensive relative to the specs.. don't remember ever seeing this situation

                #2 tale of the union (5-2) baffert/van dyke.. $925k
                #3 mucho gusto (8-1) baffert/talamo...$625k
                #5 harmon (6-1)gallagher/Smith.. $500k

                #2.. dam sire tale of the cat way above average fts
                #3.. going to give him a shot on top also
                #5.. gallagher horrible fts 1/42


                exacta 23/235 my stand will be no 3 horse box.. have a hunch at least one of these will be a big time runner
                Last edited by bleeker; 08-26-2018, 02:49 PM.
                _______________________________________________
                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                Comment


                • Re: horse plays

                  added R5
                  _______________________________________________
                  ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                  Comment


                  • Re: horse plays

                    Originally posted by bleeker View Post
                    saratoga

                    R2 #10 choate bridge... first time starter (fts)

                    home bred with a very nice pedigree top and bottom.. dam stakes placed, 4 winners from as many starters and 3 of those won on turf including 1 stakes winner . trainer avg and below avg stats in this category ..that's good imo as it helps with the price


                    #2 trish the dish (8-1) half unit


                    R5 #6 wheedle (12-1) (fts)

                    not going to go over the whole thing but just say big time specs along the lines of what I look for
                    in fts

                    if these were older experienced horses the 9 (2nd)comes down for the start.. if the 9 broke straight ahead 10 probably wins @ 24-1(3rd)
                    _______________________________________________
                    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                    Comment


                    • Re: horse plays

                      added saratoga 10 and dmr 4
                      _______________________________________________
                      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                      Comment


                      • Re: horse plays

                        saratoga monday

                        R1 #2 brett's legacy (5-1)
                        R2 #4 winter union (4-1)
                        R3 #3 miss jackie g (15-1)

                        nothing to do with capping.. 4 and the 5 this race are by the same sire and cost the same at auction.. that's like wearing a t shirt you haven't worn in 20 years and some one standing in front of you at the supermarket wearing the same one lol


                        R9 #4 surge of pride (7-2) fts

                        feel this a weak bunch of newbies.. homebred with a sire whose way above avg first turf and first out..dam unraced and this is first foal to race.. like the fact the dam sire is bernardini which usually
                        means there's some quality in the female bloodline.. irad ortiz aboard
                        Last edited by bleeker; 08-27-2018, 02:12 PM.
                        _______________________________________________
                        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                        Comment


                        • Re: horse plays

                          finished saratoga
                          _______________________________________________
                          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                          Comment


                          • Re: horse plays

                            2 good priced winner today bleeker good job !

                            Comment


                            • Re: horse plays

                              Originally posted by Jim13 View Post
                              2 good priced winner today bleeker good job !
                              thanks jim..had some decent efforts sunday also without winning..shot for the moon on travers day and in that race and the forego both didn't run horribly factoring their odds (79-1 and 55-1 respectively)...going to stable them and if they came out of it ok think they could be tough in an easier spot next out
                              Last edited by bleeker; 08-28-2018, 10:31 AM.
                              _______________________________________________
                              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                              Comment


                              • Re: horse plays

                                Ok sounds good bleeker. Was wondering do you follow Belmont after Saratoga is done ??

                                Comment

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