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  • Re: horse plays

    Here is Demling's writeup:
    The Belmont Derby Invitational is the top turf race for just 3-year-olds so far this year.
    The fifth running of the Belmont Derby will be contested with nine horses going one mile and a quarter as the feature attraction on Saturday's card at Belmont.
    The field is loaded with talent, including a pair of horses from Europe.
    In the first four runnings of the race, the favorite hasn't won. The first four winners went off at odds of 23-1, 10-1, 6-1 and 5-1.
    The Belmont Derby Invitational is formerly known as the Jamaica Handicap, which produced Breeders' Cup winners Artie Schiller (2005 in the Mile) and Court Vision (2008 in the Mile).
    The race will go to post at 6:50 p.m. ET.
    Here's my complete leaderboard, with post positions in parentheses:

    — (4) 1. Hunting Horn (7-2) - Trainer Aidan O'Brien doesn't come from Europe unless he has a big-time chance; he won the race two years ago and the son of Camelot showed a big-time late kick to win a Group 3 race at Royal Ascot in his last outing.

    — (3) 2. Analyze It (5-2) - The likely favorite for trainer Chad Brown, the son of Point of Entry will be able to get the distance and wouldn't be a shock to win. But have to believe his odds are going to be too short.

    — (7) 3. Catholic Boy (4-1) - Beat Analyze It in his last start and should be right there in this one, but this is Catholic Boy's first start beyond a 1 1/8-miles.

    — (8) 4. Hawkish (7-2) - The Artie Schiller gelding was super impressive in winning the Penn Mile Stakes in his last start and is an elite horse, but I simply don't think he can get the mile and a quarter distance.

    — (9) 5. My Boy Jack (6-1) - The last time we saw him he was finishing fifth in the Kentucky Derby; he switches back to the turf - which I think is his best surface - but have to assume he will need a race.

    — (6) 6. Kingstar (12-1) - Another European horse, but not of the quality of Hunting Horn. A second and two firsts in three lifetime starts all in France.

    — (5) 7. Maraud (12-1) - Will like the added distance and is 4-for-8 in his lifetime but he hasn't been running against this quality.

    — (1) 8. Channel Cat (30-1) - In his last start, the son of the great English Channel was third behind Catholic Boy and Analyze It; trainer Todd Pletcher doesn't have too many turf stars in his barn.

    — (2) 9. Encumbered (30-1) - Hasn't been impressive since last summer; can't see that turning around against these.

    $5 EXACTA BOX 3-4 ($10)

    $1 EXACTA 4 with ALL ($8)

    $0.50 TRIFECTA 3,4 with 3,4,7,8 with ALL ($21)

    $0.10 SUPERFECTA 4 with 3,7,8 with ALL with ALL ($12.60)

    $0.10 SUPERFECTA 3 with 4,7,8 with ALL with ALL ($12.60

    I really like his top selection ive been following in his europe races hopefully he will be staying around 7-2. I believe browns horse will be taking all the cash. Ive have hunting horn locked in at 4-1

    Comment


    • Re: horse plays

      Here is Demling's writeup:
      It's a wide-open affair for the 3-year-old fillies on Saturday at Belmont Park.
      A field of 10 will go to post in the $1 million Grade I Belmont Oaks, including seven fillies who have already won graded stakes races in their career. The field includes two from trainer Chad Brown's barn - Significant Form and Mighty Scarlett.
      Brown has won this race three times in the past four years, including last year with New Money Honey.
      The race will be contested at a mile and a quarter on the turf course and is race eight on the card.
      Post time is set for 5:46 p.m. ET.
      Here's the full leaderboard:

      —(1) 1. Significant Form (7-2) - Simply on the fact that Chad Brown has dominated this race and turf racing in general is a huge reason to love the daughter of Creative Cause. But she's also talented and should be ready to go against this tough field.

      —(5) 2. Toinette (5-1) - The daughter of Scat Daddy has only raced four times but she has won three in a row, including a major upset of Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner Rushing Falls in her last start - the Edgewood at Churchill Downs. Really a lot to like about her in this spot.

      —(7) 3. La Signare (4-1) - A winner the last time out - over Significant Form - in the Wonder Again, the daughter of Siyouni will be tough but she won't get such an easy lead on the front end this time.

      —(8) 4. ThewayIam (10-1) - Trainer Graham Motion is also dangerous in these spots; this filly has three wins and two seconds in five starts this year and will be right there the entire race.

      —(3) 5. Paved (12-1) - Just three races back she won the El Camino Real Derby - against the boys - and since has also won a Grade 2 race. She ships from California and with the right set up can be a factor.

      —(10) 6. Mighty Scarlett (8-1) - She just broke her maiden two starts back; most of the time I wouldn't have her in the top eight but with Chad Brown you just can't take the chance. He gets them so good for these spots, especially on the turf.

      —(4) 7. Capla Temptress (6-1) - European shipper won a Grade 1 race last year, shipping into Woodbine. But she hasn't started but once since the Breeders' Cup last fall and is a huge question mark.

      —(6) 8. Athena (9-2) - Unless she's a total freak - which I don't believe - I find it hard to imagine she can do this. She was third on June 21 and third in a Group One race on July 1. That's a lot of racing to ask, not to mention her trip from Ireland.

      —(9) 9. Fatele Bere (20-1) - The longest odds on the board for a horse who won a grade one race in April but she's been so up and down.

      —(2) 10. Chipolata (15-1) - Her first start outside of France; she has two wins in 10 lifetime starts. Maybe later in the year she will challenge but can't see it happening just yet.

      EXOTICS

      $1 EXACTA 1,5 with 1,3,5,7,8,10 ($12)

      $0.50 TRIFECTA 1,5 with 1,3,5,7,8 with ALL ($32)

      $0.10 SUPERFECTA 1,5, with 1,3,5,7,8 with 1,3,5,7,8 with ALL ($16.80)

      Comment


      • Re: horse plays

        thanks jim.. going to look at those races tomorrow but did some of the earlier races

        belmont saturday

        R1 #2 dillon rocks (4-1)

        2yo debuter cost a lot relative to his pedigree.. solid works and irad hops aboard.. outside of pletcher who'll be overbet not enamored with this field

        R4 #1 county court (6-1)

        won first off a 1 year layoff two starts ago and then got caught behind a very very ( yes double very's) slow pace last out.. resurfaces off a 2 month layoff for mcgaughey who is excellent with this move.. good fit vs a field that has many repeat allowance level losers


        R6 #4 noble indy (7-2)
        dwyer stakes ... grade III

        returns to normalcy after running (or more accurately not running) in the derby from the 19 post in the slop and what looks like from the comments a less than ideal trip in the belmont stakes.. his 4 races prior to that as good as anyone in here and of course I'll say the obvious.. mendelssohn will be overbet...grade III at a mile perfect spot to get right again.. i'd take the ml on him in a heartbeat


        R9 #2 war story (5-1)
        the suburban ... grade II


        he was beat by hoppertunity in the brooklyn last out but at the stretch call,which is a furlong further than they'll be running today, he was ahead by length.. the pace was slightly fast according to brisnet.. this should have him in perfect condition to go the 1¼ miles today. he has run well enough to win this in his last 3 races and had to face gun runner 4-7 starts which of course is not an easy task.. 8 starts back he won the 2017 brooklyn and prior to that ran in the charles town classic and finished 3rd by less than a length.. this is the race he ran prior to the brooklyn this year.. feel he is set up nicely for a big effort here

        R10
        belmont derby grade I

        super keying #6 kingstar in 3rd and 4th


        think it shows a lot of confidence that they'd fly him here from france with modest credentials and run him in this spot.. maybe they feel he can at least pick up a check running 3rd or 4th with an outside chance at top two347/3479/6/34789... 347/3479/34789/6 =27 combos each

        R11 #3 pequeno grande (6-1)


        all comes together here.. class, distance, post and jockey.. rudy owns, trains and is listed as the breeder along with another entity.. be nice to have your picture taken with the big crowd there today
        Last edited by bleeker; 07-07-2018, 10:35 AM.
        _______________________________________________
        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

        Comment


        • Re: horse plays

          added R9..will finish tomorrow
          _______________________________________________
          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

          Comment


          • Re: horse plays

            finished card
            _______________________________________________
            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

            Comment


            • Re: horse plays

              Lingfield UK race 7 12:05 post
              Following a horse that should approve in tommorrows race # 7 Blizzard i have him at a fixed 5-1 to win.

              Comment


              • Re: horse plays

                Came on plenty for her debut whit encouraging 4th over 1m at Nottingham;should improve again. There is a big 2to5 fav in ripplings water trying to beat. Will be using in exacta if i could get 10 bucks. GL

                Comment


                • Re: horse plays

                  Originally posted by Jim13 View Post
                  Lingfield UK race 7 12:05 post
                  Following a horse that should approve in tommorrows race # 7 Blizzard i have him at a fixed 5-1 to win.

                  gl jim.. if i'm around I'll watch
                  _______________________________________________
                  ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                  Comment


                  • Re: horse plays

                    Thanks bleeker, blizzard won by a couple lenghts, really no contest

                    Comment


                    • Re: horse plays

                      Originally posted by Jim13 View Post
                      Thanks bleeker, blizzard won by a couple lenghts, really no contest
                      congratulations jim..didn't get a chance to watch ..good call
                      _______________________________________________
                      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                      Comment


                      • Re: horse plays

                        Thanks bleeker. I wish it was always that easy lol!! Im going to take a break also and save my bankroll for saratoga. Can not wait ! I know del mar is also starting up, but do not play to much wesr coast races, if I do it is usualy just the stake turf races. And pointers for del mar would be great bleeker, thanks

                        Comment


                        • Re: horse plays

                          del mar... wednesday

                          R1 carville (8-1)

                          87/34%/ +8%... claiming races
                          44/32/ +166% !! ..repeat winner
                          16/56% !! / +96%.. clm repeater
                          81/28%/ even ..overall

                          big speed bias in routes here and he wired a field at golden gate last out where the pace was about 12 lengths fast !! his final figure faster than par for this race.. understand it was on the poly track but still put it all together


                          R2 gray admiral (12-1)

                          broke his maiden in his 2nd career start and 1st try at 2 turns on the turf.. he was a length off a 7 length faster than par pace in that race.. slow breaks from the rail in next two starts and feel his last sprint line is a nice setup to stretch out off.. trainer excellent and very profitable with this move over 27 race sample

                          R3 #2 ketos (4-1)

                          besides the fact he's won here I like that he won off a 53 week layoff 5 back.. then off for 4 months
                          and 2 bad efforts followed by two 2nd's in his last 2 races.. big pace figures I those.. claimed by jacobson who's excellent first off the claim and even better with claim drop downs.. 7 lb bug never hurts with front end speed and huge rail bias in dmr sprints (and he's excellent overall rider)..should get by rail horse inside him easy

                          other thing that's really amazing (no handicapping significance) is the sire and dam sire have the exact (to the 10th) sire production index..both avg winning distances within a 10th of each other also..never see that again more than likely unless we have another stormy atlantic out of an end sweep mare


                          R4 blueberry princess (8-1)

                          hopped start in debut and ran evenly.. trainer excellent numbers in applicable categories and at least the top 2 horses in that debut race came back to win.. 3 solid works since that race including his last bullet of 80 at 4f at santa anita


                          R5 ritzy a p (7-2)

                          R6 giant influence (5-1)

                          R7 splashy kisses (20-1)


                          want to avoid the obvious ones.. not knocking those who would take a stand with one of them but if anything maybe mine would be a good one to play in 2nd and 3rd


                          obvious


                          hollendofer $1M firster...
                          run big in debut but didn't win ( 2 horses)..
                          peter miller 100k firster..


                          mine..


                          cost a lot for pedigree..
                          dam sire breeders cup sprint winner..
                          solid not spectacular works..
                          doug o neil not particularly good with firsters but it is opening day at del mar




                          R8 arawak (6-1)


                          class,versatility (different tracks), excuses for bad efforts (multiple bad posts and tough trips).. very competitive but I land here




                          R9 aurora d'oro (10-1)


                          not sure how they could assign 10-1 ml on this one?? I realize broke his mdn vs 20k claimers last out but pace figures final figure good and did it at this distance...outside post and speed very good at this distance and this guy has both.. bejarano and o'neil 4/15 last 60 days




                          R10 blitzkrieg (12-1)


                          like everything (or at least lots) but the jock



                          Last edited by bleeker; 07-18-2018, 01:41 PM.
                          _______________________________________________
                          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                          Comment


                          • Re: horse plays

                            DEL MAR WEDNESDAY PREVIOUS POST ...DON'T WANT IT TO BE MISSED WITH THIS POST


                            indiana grand

                            R5 #8 aaron's joy (30-1)

                            did nothing in his debut going wide all the way around but that was as a 2yo in september ...homebred is by paynter out of a chester house mare which is nice bloodlines in an indiana bred race..dam has produced 2 winners from 3 starters and was a winner herself.... the new trainer is solid and very profitable off a long layoff (roi +89%)and is 8/32 with msw with a +200% roi !!. jockey is 4/9 with trainer last 60 days (+178% roi).. horse is also a first time gelding

                            parx

                            R5 #6 missin the big dog (3-1)

                            9 starts 1-4-4 all on the dirt and tries turf for the first time which he's bred to like ..dam has 9 winners from as many starters including 6 turf winners. trainer nice numbers roi and win % in multiple categories

                            R10 #6 smooth don (5-1)

                            think his run prior vs allowance makes him tough here.. broke maiden vs claimers and now drops in to clm 20kn2l which is where he belongs.. jockey castillo 12/40 in sprint races
                            _______________________________________________
                            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                            Comment


                            • Re: horse plays

                              Bleeker heres to a good del mar and Saratoga meet !! Good luck with all your selections !!! Jim

                              Comment


                              • Re: horse plays

                                Originally posted by Jim13 View Post
                                Bleeker heres to a good del mar and Saratoga meet !! Good luck with all your selections !!! Jim
                                thanks jim and same to you...feel free to post in here if you see anything you like
                                _______________________________________________
                                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                                Comment

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