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  • Re: horse plays

    santa anita

    R6 #5 it's a new year (4-1)
    R8 #4 chromium (6-1)
    R9 #7 starting bloc (4-1)
    Last edited by bleeker; 05-13-2018, 02:19 PM.
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

    Comment


    • Re: horse plays

      take it easy today as it's an off track.. small or not at all
      _______________________________________________
      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

      Comment


      • Re: horse plays

        finger lakes

        R4 #2 buddy anthony (7-2)
        R5 #8 rollo lothbrok (6-1)
        R6 #8 classic stones (8-1)
        R7 #3 a taste of glory (7-2)
        R9 #1 mahvelous marie (6-1)
        Last edited by bleeker; 05-14-2018, 10:31 AM.
        _______________________________________________
        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

        Comment


        • Re: horse plays

          finished finger lakes
          _______________________________________________
          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

          Comment


          • Re: horse plays

            thistledown

            R1 #6 raging saint (6-1)


            indiana grand


            R2 #7 major bluff (15-1)
            R3 #5 regal wildcat (6-1)

            R4 #4 ruling empire (4-5)

            not a bet but if they have show wagering could see bridgejumpers here.. first time starter ridiculous mismatch on pedigree and connections alone.. I doubt the billionaires at Qatar racing care that the msw purse is about 20k less here vs major tracks

            R6 #4 sureis (3-1)

            sure will be an underlay but looks much better to me
            Last edited by bleeker; 05-15-2018, 10:48 AM.
            _______________________________________________
            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

            Comment


            • Re: horse plays

              finished
              _______________________________________________
              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

              Comment


              • Re: horse plays

                Originally posted by bleeker View Post
                thistledown

                R1 #6 raging saint (6-1)


                indiana grand


                R2 #7 major bluff (15-1)
                R3 #5 regal wildcat (6-1)

                R4 #4 ruling empire (4-5)

                not a bet but if they have show wagering could see bridgejumpers here.. first time starter ridiculous mismatch on pedigree and connections alone..
                I doubt the billionaires at Qatar racing care that the msw purse is about 20k less here vs major tracks

                R6 #4 sureis (3-1)

                sure will be an underlay but looks much better to me

                have to say this was a very bad call.. way I described it he would win easy at 2-5 or less and there'd be a minus show pool.. there was no show betting.. finished 3rd at 4-5 which probably is a bad sign to begin with as morning line 4-5's are supposed to go off much lower.. winner was another first time starter ($27) and to me a real head scratcher
                Last edited by bleeker; 05-15-2018, 03:08 PM.
                _______________________________________________
                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                Comment


                • Re: horse plays

                  preakness

                  sporting chance

                  i'm a long time critic of d wayne lukas and feel since his glory days in the 80's and 90's he does very little with the good stock he gets to work with overall..realize he's had some good ones but not enough imo...according to brisnet stats he is 3/96 in graded stakes and not sure how far that goes back ..pretty awful

                  that being said and factoring in the value I'll be getting going to take a shot with him in the preakness..like the fact he is a 575k yearling purchase by dual bc classic winner tiznow..after a solid 2nd in his debut at churchill breaks his maiden in his next race at saratoga..follows that up with a win in the g1 hopefull at 7f knocking heads all the way around on a very fair pace according to brisnet

                  without commenting race to race on his 3yo year I feel he has been compromised by multiple factors..bad posts,off tracks and some less than favorable trips..understand he ran on the same day as the derby in the pat day mile and therefore comes back on the same short rest..I'm bucking the negatives (trainer,short rest) and hoping in a small field on what will hopefully be a fast track that he can return to his 2yo form..and what better name for a horse like this anyway
                  Last edited by bleeker; 05-15-2018, 09:06 PM.
                  _______________________________________________
                  ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                  Comment


                  • Re: horse plays

                    belmont

                    R6 #5 scat back (30-1)

                    that's it for today
                    _______________________________________________
                    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                    Comment


                    • Re: horse plays

                      Good post for the preakness bleeker ! You always have some good info. How do you feel with sporting chance if it an off track, maybe some ran in the forecast??

                      Comment


                      • Re: horse plays

                        Originally posted by Jim13 View Post
                        Good post for the preakness bleeker ! You always have some good info. How do you feel with sporting chance if it an off track, maybe some ran in the forecast??
                        thanks jim...even though I used it as an excuse I don't think it's a huge big deal..would ideally like it to be on a fast surface but as you said it's looking unlikely..his 3 off track races

                        1) won the g1 hopefull at saratoga on a good track

                        2) his 3yo debut off a 5 month layoff in the southwest at oaklawn ..a decent 3rd with a troubled trip on a muddy track..fine with that


                        3) his last race on derby day in the pat day mile..broke from the 11 post on obviously a sloppy track ..finished 4th of 14 and comments "checked at 5/8th and 8 wide "..fine with that effort


                        by tiznow out of a candy ride mare
                        and both of those are well above average off track sires

                        wouldn't hold it as a big strike against if it's an off track
                        Last edited by bleeker; 05-16-2018, 05:54 PM.
                        _______________________________________________
                        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                        Comment


                        • Re: horse plays

                          Originally posted by bleeker View Post
                          thanks jim...even though I used it as an excuse I don't think it's a huge big deal..would ideally like it to be on a fast surface but as you said it's looking unlikely..his 3 off track races

                          1) won the g1 hopefull at saratoga on a good track

                          2) his 3yo debut off a 5 month layoff in the southwest at oaklawn ..a decent 3rd with a troubled trip on a muddy track..fine with that


                          3) his last race on derby day in the pat day mile..broke from the 11 post on obviously a sloppy track ..finished 4th of 14 and comments "checked at 5/8th and 8 wide "..fine with that effort


                          by tiznow out of a candy ride mare
                          and both of those are well above average off track sires

                          wouldn't hold it as a big strike against if it's an off track
                          bottom line if I were to invest 100 on the race on a dry track i'd knock it down to 70 on a wet track..figuring justify will be around 2-5 and sporting chance around 40-1..

                          I will use 100 as an example and if the track is off do about 70% of this..

                          sc= sporting chance
                          ju=justify
                          gm =good magic

                          50 win sc
                          35 exacta ju/sc
                          7 exacta gm/sc
                          6 triple ju/gm/sc
                          2 triple gm/ju/sc

                          100 total

                          as a frame of reference i would bet this amount if my average bet on a horse race were about 30-40
                          Last edited by bleeker; 05-17-2018, 06:22 AM.
                          _______________________________________________
                          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                          Comment


                          • Re: horse plays

                            Thanks for the info bleeker !! All the talking i keep hearing sound like justify has won the race already lol !! Keep talking with he be able to do the distance at belmont

                            Comment


                            • Re: horse plays

                              Originally posted by Jim13 View Post
                              Thanks for the info bleeker !! All the talking i keep hearing sound like justify has won the race already lol !! Keep talking with he be able to do the distance at belmont
                              really is a shame though..he's a great horse and you'd like to see him get the chance to run these races on a fast track which looks like it's not happening..supposed to be about 3 inches of rain through saturday
                              _______________________________________________
                              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                              Comment


                              • Re: horse plays

                                churchill ..5pm post

                                R3 #4 grit and glory (4-1)
                                R5 #1 tofino (7-2)
                                R6 xbox 37
                                R8 #3 purimeter (15-1)
                                _______________________________________________
                                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                                Comment

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