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  • Re: horse plays

    I stay away from the obvious in the derby which hasn't been a good idea lately..can't play justify, mendelson or audible as they're too obvious and hopefully with some chaos they won't get it done
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

    Comment


    • Re: horse plays

      Ok thanks bleeker !! See how the weather is also saturday. Do you think enticed will get the mile and a quarter ? That is what i put next to him in my notes. And with solimini you always have to respect a baffert horse?? Justify will be the public favorite, cant put him on top.

      Comment


      • Re: horse plays

        Originally posted by Jim13 View Post
        Ok thanks bleeker !! See how the weather is also saturday. Do you think enticed will get the mile and a quarter ? That is what i put next to him in my notes. And with solimini you always have to respect a baffert horse?? Justify will be the public favorite, cant put him on top.
        enticed is by medaglia de oro who is top 3 distance and class of north american sires..the dam won 6 graded stakes and 3 of them were grade 1 routes..
        if you remember the gotham at a mile he had a very wide trip and he won easy and chart caller said "geared down last 70 yards"..also the pace in that race was about 5 lengths fast according to brisnet and he was 2 lengths off at the pace call so it was no free lunch up front..the wood was a bad setup with him behind the lone speed down the backstretch..thought he did well to finish second..you never know at 10 furlongs
        but indications are he shouldn't mind it
        Last edited by bleeker; 05-01-2018, 06:46 AM.
        _______________________________________________
        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

        Comment


        • Re: horse plays

          churchill

          R1 #1 naple's legacy (5-1)
          R2 #3 ninth hour (2-1)
          R3 #2 southeast (3-1)
          R4 #2 ring me up (15-1)
          R6 #1 kowboy posse (6-1)

          R7 #6 tamit (5-1)
          R9 #2 portrait of emma (8-1)
          Last edited by bleeker; 05-01-2018, 01:24 PM.
          _______________________________________________
          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

          Comment


          • Re: horse plays

            finished
            _______________________________________________
            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

            Comment


            • Re: horse plays

              belmont


              R4 #3 our passion (3-1)
              R9 #9 alien invasion (8-1)
              _______________________________________________
              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

              Comment


              • Re: horse plays

                what are you playing for the derby?

                Comment


                • Re: horse plays

                  Originally posted by Darkhorsecapper17 View Post
                  what are you playing for the derby?

                  i'm leaning 12-enticed (30-1) and 17-solimini (30-1) and may cover with the favorite #7-justify.. i'll put my final play up tomorrow or saturday morning
                  _______________________________________________
                  ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                  Comment


                  • Re: horse plays

                    churchill

                    R5 #1 amy's challenge (5-2)
                    R6 #3 abel tasman (1-1)
                    R7 #1 delectation (6-1)
                    R8 #4 backyard heaven (9-2)
                    R9 #1 saint's girl (10-1)
                    R10 #3 altea (6-1)
                    R11 #11 my miss lilly (10-1) oaks
                    R12 #6 she's a julie (7-2)
                    R13 #4 auspicious babe (12-1)



                    belmont

                    R6 #7 fiduciary values (5-2)
                    Last edited by bleeker; 05-04-2018, 01:39 PM.
                    _______________________________________________
                    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                    Comment


                    • Re: horse plays

                      added
                      _______________________________________________
                      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                      Comment


                      • Re: horse plays

                        finished churchill
                        _______________________________________________
                        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                        Comment


                        • Re: horse plays

                          churchill downs



                          R1 #8 honorable treasure (8-1)

                          I think this horse is capable of running his 2nd career start at saratoga which would get it done here

                          race 1 ..2yo broke from rail 2 turn grass race in july ..tough

                          race 2 ..wins by 6 @ 7f with big final figure..2nd place horse comes back to win

                          race 3..grade 1 champagne..close to very fast pace between horses and finishes 6th in a field of 12..top 3 running in the derby today

                          race 4.. another race close to a fast pace..a length off at the 7f mark in a mile race so involved longer here than the champagne

                          race 5 ..listed stakes at turfway (synthetic) for his first race as a 3yo..even race mid pack which is fine considering the layoff and surface

                          race 6 (last race)..breaks in the air from the 11 post at keeneland and runs another even mid pack race..think 3rd off a 4+month layoff he might be ready for a big effort like his 2nd race

                          ________________________________

                          R2 #4 oskar blues (15-1)
                          R3 #6 irish* freedom (7-2)
                          R4 #9 irish* territory (5-1)
                          *not a hunch ..hopefully lucky
                          R5 #5 petrov (4-1)
                          R6 #8 american gal (7-2)
                          R7 #6 proctor's ledge (12-1)
                          R8 #3 imperial hint (9-5)
                          R9 #3 threeandfourpence (4-1)
                          R10 #5 mississipi (10-1)
                          R12 derby...below
                          R13 #9 regal quality (4-1)
                          R14 #9 leinster (15-1
                          Last edited by bleeker; 05-05-2018, 01:05 PM.
                          _______________________________________________
                          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                          Comment


                          • Re: horse plays

                            Originally posted by bleeker View Post
                            churchill downs



                            R1 #8 honorable treasure (8-1)

                            I think this horse is capable of running his 2nd career start at saratoga which would get it done here

                            race 1 ..2yo broke from rail 2 turn grass race in july ..tough

                            race 2 ..wins by 6 @ 7f with big final figure..2nd place horse comes back to win

                            race 3..grade 1 champagne..close to very fast pace between horses and finishes 6th in a field of 12..top 3 running in the derby today

                            race 4.. another race close to a fast pace..a length off at the 7f mark in a mile race so involved longer here than the champagne

                            race 5 ..listed stakes at turfway (synthetic) for his first race as a 3yo..even race mid pack which is fine considering the layoff and surface

                            race 6 (last race)..breaks in the air from the 11 post at keeneland and runs another even mid pack race..think 3rd off a 4+month layoff he might be ready for a big effort like his 2nd race

                            ________________________________

                            R2 #4 oskar blues (15-1)
                            R3 #6 irish* freedom (7-2)
                            R4 #9 irish* territory (5-1)
                            *not a hunch ..hopefully lucky
                            R5 #5 petrov (4-1)
                            R6 #8 american gal (7-2)
                            R7 #6 proctor's ledge (12-1)

                            rest including derby tomorrow
                            post time 10:30
                            _______________________________________________
                            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                            Comment


                            • Re: horse plays

                              derby

                              R12 #12 enticed (30-1)

                              broke his maiden first out at saratoga..then ran an even 3rd in the champagne next out vs a 12 horse field ..he was 2-3 lengths off the leader at every call including 6 wide at the eighth pole..the pace was 5-6 lengths fast according to brisnet so he was running legit fractions.. 3rd start he wins the ky jockey club g2
                              at churchill downs which is a positive for class and you know he doesn't mind the track surface..his initial start at 3 was a poor effort in the holy bull and trainer mclaughlin said he felt he wasn't comfortable running on the rail for most of the trip..comes back to win the gotham at aqueduct impressively and the chart caller said he was geared down the final 70 yards..the wood was a tough trip imo as he was 2nd down the backstretch by an average of about 5 lengths chasing a lone front runner who was going very fast..passed him around the 5/16th mark and thought he dug in bravely in the stretch when vino rossi came alongside but was just a bit too much..the setup will be nothing like that today..he's by medaglia d'oro (elite class and distance sire) and out of a dam who won 3 grade 1 routes and other graded stakes as well so it's no fluke that he's a good one

                              #17 solimini (30-1)

                              breaks mdn 1st out as a 2yo ..2nd start runs 2nd behind the more experienced bolt d'oro in the g1 front runner at santa anita..bdo had already won a g1 in his 2nd start prior to that race..finishes 2nd in the bc cup juvenile behind good magic in his next start and wraps up the year with a g1 win in the los alamitos futurity..so all in all an excellent 2yo campaign ..goes the arkansas route for the derby and finishes 2nd behind magnum moon in the rebel which is perfectly fine for a first out 3yo try..then he runs a dead even 3rd behind a tortoise- like pace in the arkansas derby and I feel that's a better effort than it looks for that reason..great bloodlines by curlin out of a storm cat mare..baffert knows what he's doing obviously and working lights out between races


                              btw enticed broke his maiden first out on a muddy track... solomini hasn't been on an off track yet but is tied for first with two others for the highest brisnet mud rating
                              Last edited by bleeker; 05-05-2018, 01:21 PM.
                              _______________________________________________
                              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                              Comment


                              • Re: horse plays

                                Comment

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