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Thread: horse plays

  1. #3351

    Re: horse plays

    Thanks Bleeker. Yeah when it's off the turf it's a whole different game. Love the turf races at Saratoga. Bleeker any good info on 2 year old races during the meet would be greatly appreciated. I never had any good luck with the baby races.

     
     
  2. #3352

    Re: horse plays

    Quote Originally Posted by Jim13 View Post
    Thanks Bleeker. Yeah when it's off the turf it's a whole different game. Love the turf races at Saratoga. Bleeker any good info on 2 year old races during the meet would be greatly appreciated. I never had any good luck with the baby races.

    think you have to take some stances against chad and todd along the way.. these two with an exquisitely bred horse too obvious but exacta still a possibility and will try to beat them when looks like a good opportunity
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  3. #3353

    Re: horse plays

    delaware

    R5 #5 trust in dianne (4-1)
    R6 #5 pep talking (5-1)


    done


    indiana grande


    R1 #3 indian show (15-1)
    R2 #2 cha mono (6-1)
    R3 #8 private message (5-1)
    R4 pass



    R6 #9 wild union (4-1)
    R7 #2 havenhill (8-1)
    R9 #2 marv's magic (15-1)
    Last edited by bleeker; 07-10-2019 at 01:37 PM.
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  4. #3354

    Re: horse plays

    Cant wait till tommorow im off from work
    2011 Winner of TIS college football contest
    2012 - 2013
    NBA 33-18-1
    MLB 16-12
    NFL 27-13-1
    CFB 12-11
    CBB 9-2
    MLB 2013 2-0
    NHL 1-0

    2013
    GOY 1-0 Mississippi +9.5 Over LSU 27-24

    2018
    NFL 0-1

     
     
  5. #3355

    Re: horse plays

    Quote Originally Posted by FRAOLI4444 View Post
    Cant wait till tommorow im off from work

    ok hopefully the weather cooperates





    finished indiana
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  6. #3356

    Re: horse plays

    Quote Originally Posted by bleeker View Post
    delaware

    R5 #5 trust in dianne (4-1)
    R6 #5 pep talking (5-1)


    done


    indiana grande


    R1 #3 indian show (15-1)
    R2 #2 cha mono (6-1)
    R3 #8 private message (5-1)
    R4 pass



    R6 #9 wild union (4-1)
    R7 #2 havenhill (8-1)
    R9 #2 marv's magic (15-1)



    the one winner I have by a nose @ $10 even.. problem it's R8.. why you gotta check if you play ...making less of those mistakes but will never be perfect


    try one at woodbine

    R4 #8 blezniatka (7-2)

    let me just make sure....


    yes that's correct
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  7. #3357

    Re: horse plays

    looks like thunderstorms arriving around noon.. 5 of the last 7 races scheduled for turf.. not good.. may do an amended card based on the track conditions.. sloppy, muddy or off the turf toss those early picks
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  8. #3358

    Re: horse plays

    I checked weather again and now they've pushed things back to a little later..light rain starting around 2 and going to 5pm..heavier stuff after that...have a hunch this cards going to get through without it being an off track
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  9. #3359

    Re: horse plays

    Quote Originally Posted by bleeker View Post
    saratoga thursday


    looks like there's a decent chance the track may be off tomorrow (ruins it for me) .. any turf race (2 4 6 7 9 10) that is run on the dirt is a no play..i always handicap dirt races for good or fast tracks so sloppy or muddy conditions are half plays or no plays for me.. not going to bother with 7-10 till I see what the conditions are tomorrow




    R1 #7 real dan (5-2)

    have a feeling this is a well meant drop down with the connections involved.. owner is a big player in this game and buys very expensive horses..he'll run them where they are capable of doing well even if it means taking a loss.. don't think he'd be returning in 3 weeks if he were in really bad shape.. think with what he has under him he's nicely set up for the stretch out.. probably get taken by someone


    R2 #8 duress (15-1)


    first time starter who cost a lot for the pedigree.. above average turf and win early top and bottom.. working very nicely up to the race.. trainer bad with first time starters (1/32) but you need something to be off to get a price.. have to think maybe they've tightened him up a little more than usual being its opening day


    R3 #7 the rock says (4-1)

    trying to stay away from horses who ran big at belmont because of the completely different configuration of route races up here.. not going take the big figure chad brown (#6) as that's too obvious.. this one has many nice credentials coming in



    R4 #3 discretionary (8-1)



    R5 #1 time shift (15-1)

    trainer bad with debut horses but like the kentucky bloodlines vs nyb company.. works solid but not spectacular which i prefer anyway




    R6 #10 analyzethisandthat (9-2)

    won here last year in his 3rd career start and doing the same thing here (distance, surface but 3rd off the layoff this time).. like the races he's got under him as a setup .. crappy trainer may give you a shot at a decent price

    R7 #1 dynamite kitten (15-1) has to be turf

    think she will be much less.. lightly raced 4yo filly who seems to be coming into her own.. 6 wide both turns 3 back and finished 2nd by less than a length.. attended extremely fast pace 2 back after hitting the gate and retreated to 3rd.. got through n1x last out and comment had to wait t to get through at the quarter pole.. by animal kingdom out of an extremely productive dynaformer mare which is great turf distance pedigree.. trainer tremendously profitable off a win and on turf in general and solid turf rider gaffalione rides


    R8 #1 shippy (2-1) fast or good

    not going to get fancy here.. two doug o'neils (other #5).. who broke their maidens first out with 97 brisnet figures (amazing in itself).. opened 5 lengths final eighth and won by 10..like that she did it at an east coast track (laurel) vs the other at santa anita.. even at 77k this one cost a good amount relative to the pedigree which to me is still useful information.. rail is excellent at saratoga in 6f sprints



    R10 #7 elite mom (12-1)

    ran behind ridiculously slow paces in her last 2 races including a very wide trip in her last.. drops into maiden claiming, 3rd off the layoff and jose ortiz stays aboard
    Last edited by bleeker; 07-11-2019 at 03:55 PM.
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  10. #3360

    Re: horse plays

    2011 Winner of TIS college football contest
    2012 - 2013
    NBA 33-18-1
    MLB 16-12
    NFL 27-13-1
    CFB 12-11
    CBB 9-2
    MLB 2013 2-0
    NHL 1-0

    2013
    GOY 1-0 Mississippi +9.5 Over LSU 27-24

    2018
    NFL 0-1

     
     
  11. #3361

    Re: horse plays

    Quote Originally Posted by FRAOLI4444 View Post
    thanks


    R4 scratch
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  12. #3362

    Re: horse plays

    finished saratoga
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  13. #3363

    Re: horse plays

    little recap but won't normally do this...

    * 2 first time starters (31-1) (37-1) nothing

    * 3 horses between 2 and 5-1.. one 3rd @ 5-2 missed 2nd by a nose and < 1 length from winner

    * 1 even money came 3rd and < 1 length from winner


    * R7 my horse was 10-1 and ran 7th by <3 lengths .. had lots of trouble in the stretch and imo would've come at least 3rd and possibly won with a little better luck .. watch replay if you can



    * 2 scratches
    Last edited by bleeker; 07-11-2019 at 06:20 PM.
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  14. #3364

    Re: horse plays

    I watched the races i have saratoga on my cable race 7 he had no room boxed in he would have finished in the money if no trouble
    2011 Winner of TIS college football contest
    2012 - 2013
    NBA 33-18-1
    MLB 16-12
    NFL 27-13-1
    CFB 12-11
    CBB 9-2
    MLB 2013 2-0
    NHL 1-0

    2013
    GOY 1-0 Mississippi +9.5 Over LSU 27-24

    2018
    NFL 0-1

     
     
  15. #3365

    Re: horse plays

    Yeah Bleeker with a little more luck / way through the lane I say he would of got at least 2nd. Maybe keep him in mind next start? I believe the jock this is his first full time at the Saratoga meet? I like his agent the old jock miglore. He was killer for me at aqueduct ! Those jocks were sweet ! Chavez, day, Bailey (even when he cost me a pick6 with his disqualification!) He was my favor jock.

     
     
  16. #3366

    Re: horse plays

    Quote Originally Posted by Jim13 View Post
    Yeah Bleeker with a little more luck / way through the lane I say he would of got at least 2nd. Maybe keep him in mind next start? I believe the jock this is his first full time at the Saratoga meet? I like his agent the old jock miglore. He was killer for me at aqueduct ! Those jocks were sweet ! Chavez, day, Bailey (even when he cost me a pick6 with his disqualification!) He was my favor jock.

    not only at the end, where he really had to be taken up, but towards the top of the stretch the gap closed.. if he gets through there probably home or just misses.. had a ton of horse.. yes he's definitely a good follow up


    not sure if it's gaffalione's first full meet up here but could be.. may have heard migliore was his agent before but if you asked me wouldn't have known.. mig, chop chop and of course one of the all time greats jerry bailey (guess that's who you're referring to with the p6).. and pat rode probably one of the best horses of the last 20th century easy goer.. 30 years ago he battled through the triple crown races vs sunday silence..that was about 3 years before the beyers were published in the form (actually they first appeared in the short lived racing times before it went under)..andy said easy goer was probably the fastest horse since he started making his figures back in the early 70's other than secretariat
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  17. #3367

    Re: horse plays

    Quote Originally Posted by FRAOLI4444 View Post
    I watched the races i have saratoga on my cable race 7 he had no room boxed in he would have finished in the money if no trouble

    yeah believe so fraoli.. hey sometimes you're on the other horse and glad that happened to someone else.. luck is definitely part of the equation but if you have the right idea often enough hopefully that balances out over the long run.. btw if you get the "nyra now" app you can see replays and watch live ..terrific app
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  18. #3368

    Re: horse plays

    Quote Originally Posted by bleeker View Post
    yeah believe so fraoli.. hey sometimes you're on the other horse and glad that happened to someone else.. luck is definitely part of the equation but if you have the right idea often enough hopefully that balances out over the long run.. btw if you get the "nyra now" app you can see replays and watch live ..terrific app
    Thanks bleeker
    2011 Winner of TIS college football contest
    2012 - 2013
    NBA 33-18-1
    MLB 16-12
    NFL 27-13-1
    CFB 12-11
    CBB 9-2
    MLB 2013 2-0
    NHL 1-0

    2013
    GOY 1-0 Mississippi +9.5 Over LSU 27-24

    2018
    NFL 0-1

     
     
  19. #3369

    Re: horse plays

    Quote Originally Posted by FRAOLI4444 View Post
    Thanks bleeker

    no problem fraoli



    saratoga (good or better to play dirt)

    R1 #3 derby memories (6-1)

    R2 #4 prince of new york (20-1)

    scheduled for turf but I'd play on dirt also

    R4 #4 kahramani (5-1)

    R5 #4 lotta ott (3-1)


    expensive for his pedigree.. by a new sire and by an all sprint dam sire.. working sharp for asmussen.. reward won't be great but have a hunch this is a live one
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  20. #3370

    Re: horse plays

    Some w/p plays I am doing today for Saratoga today

    R1 - 1 Arguto if at least 8-1

    R4 - 9 Big Muddy

    R5 -1 Apurate

    R9 - 4 Offering Plan if at least 4-1

    GL guys

     
     
  21. #3371

    Re: horse plays

    saratoga

    R1 #4 ramblin' ma'am (15-1)
    R2 #7 honorable profit (15-1)
    R4 #5 vaya con dios (12-1)
    R6 #2 decorated invader (4-1)
    R8 #1 blahnik (15-1)
    R10 #8 hersh (4-1)
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  22. #3372

    Re: horse plays

    good luck
    Quote Originally Posted by bleeker View Post
    saratoga

    R1 #4 ramblin' ma'am (15-1)
    R2 #7 honorable profit (15-1)
    R4 #5 vaya con dios (12-1)
    R6 #2 decorated invader (4-1)
    R8 #1 blahnik (15-1)
    R10 #8 hersh (4-1)
    2011 Winner of TIS college football contest
    2012 - 2013
    NBA 33-18-1
    MLB 16-12
    NFL 27-13-1
    CFB 12-11
    CBB 9-2
    MLB 2013 2-0
    NHL 1-0

    2013
    GOY 1-0 Mississippi +9.5 Over LSU 27-24

    2018
    NFL 0-1

     
     
  23. #3373

    Re: horse plays

    think most people understand this but just as a reminder if i'm picking high odds horses i expect them to lose along the lines of what the odds are..for example 20-1's over the long haul hoping to avg a win once every 17-18 times..30-1's once every 25-28 times
    ..10-1's once every 8-9 times..2nd's of course will happen more often but the point is expect to lose a lot more often than you will win with these longshot and lengthy bad streaks are inevitable..I have to see something I like to recommend them and don't just toss them out there with a "what the heck" type attitude..important to have realistic expectations with these long odds horses
    Last edited by bleeker; 07-14-2019 at 08:28 AM.
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  24. #3374

    Re: horse plays

    saratoga

    R1 #10 morning gold (8-1)

    horse cost an extraordinary amount of money for his pedigree.. fast workouts spaced a week apart datng all the way back to mid may.. solid trainer who is terrible with debut horses but need a little something to throw the public off..i'll go with the positives and give it a go


    R2 #7 passcode (3-1)


    R3 #7 bears mafia (8-1)


    R4 #1 titan's will (4-1)

    R5 #3 retro street (8-1)
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  25. #3375

    Re: horse plays

    delaware


    R5 #8 dig in (8-1)



    louisiana downs (6:39)


    R6 #2 hanging lake (7-2)
    Last edited by bleeker; 07-15-2019 at 05:33 PM.
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     

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