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  • Re: horse plays

    aqueduct


    R1 #6 kingmeister (6-1)


    not sure if i'm going to do much today..R10 above


    R5 #7 juulstone (8-1)
    Last edited by bleeker; 12-07-2019, 11:44 AM.
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

    Comment


    • Re: horse plays

      added 5
      _______________________________________________
      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

      Comment


      • Re: horse plays

        100 plays.. 2 a day max

        want to try and focus in the next 100 plays.. will keep track of records including avg odds.. plays will be $2-$6 win place.. this will factor in odds and strength of opinion.. any other things I think can improve the thread I will add.. if near the end (or well underway) I'm not doing well not going to chase by going with bombs.. if I like a price may take a shot but my main focus is playing as if there isn't a time frame


        added 1/6..going to add a separate stakes race tally so if I want to get involved on big race days I can..all stakes races are $1WP as I have less faith in them doing well over time..remember I can go 2-6 on plays in the tracking thread.. no limit how many I can play in a day if it's one of those big day cards





        play #1


        fairgrounds

        R8 #5 scary animal (12-1) 3WP
        Last edited by bleeker; 01-06-2020, 12:14 PM.
        _______________________________________________
        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

        Comment


        • Re: horse plays

          Originally posted by bleeker View Post
          100 plays.. 2 a day max

          want to try and focus in the next 100 plays.. will keep track of records including avg odds.. plays will be $2-$6 win place.. this will factor in odds and strength of opinion.. any other things I think can improve the thread I will add.. if near the end (or well underway) I'm not doing well not going to chase by going with bombs.. if I like a price may take a shot but my main focus is playing as if there isn't a time frame


          play #1


          fairgrounds

          R8 #5 scary animal (12-1) 3WP
          good start ...30-1 winner !!

          $62.80 win / $26.60 place

          invested $6
          returned $134.10
          _______________________________________________
          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

          Comment


          • Re: horse plays

            Good job Bleeker! I really enjoy when you do this. Great way for money management, alot of players dont do. Hopefully for had some cash on it! Stinks my adw doesn't include CD tracks. But it has a great rebate option.

            Hope all is well

            Jim

            Comment


            • Re: horse plays

              Originally posted by Jim13 View Post
              Good job Bleeker! I really enjoy when you do this. Great way for money management, alot of players dont do. Hopefully for had some cash on it! Stinks my adw doesn't include CD tracks. But it has a great rebate option.

              Hope all is well

              Jim

              thanks jim and same with you.. when I lower the volume of plays I get better results and really feel that's probably true for many horseplayers.. the most important thing imo whatever your method is being confident that a particular play is a good one and less worried about the result in the immediate.. one thing that I've become more comfortable with over the years is the borderline plays that win or place and I passed on..there will always be more gray area decisions than black and white ones playing this game.. ok I'll stop blabbing away..take off next two days and back on wednesday.. hopefully be a nice sampling
              _______________________________________________
              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

              Comment


              • Re: horse plays

                great job bleeker thanks for the time you spend merry xmas
                2011 Winner of TIS college football contest
                2012 - 2013
                NBA 33-18-1
                MLB 16-12
                NFL 27-13-1
                CFB 12-11
                CBB 9-2
                MLB 2013 2-0
                NHL 1-0

                2013
                GOY 1-0 Mississippi +9.5 Over LSU 27-24

                2018
                NFL 0-1

                Comment


                • Re: horse plays

                  FREE Aqueduct Horse Racing Pick: RT and SmartCap analyze Thursday's 7th

                  Todays race we’re giving you the 7th race at chilly Aqueduct where it’ll be a crisp 34 degrees at post time.

                  This is a $62.5K Allowance Optional Claiming race for three-year olds and up.

                  Returning to action today is the #8 – Identity Politics, who just a year ago was chasing McKinzie in the Malibu at Santa Anita. Since that time, he got smoked by World Of Trouble in the G2 Carter this spring at Aqueduct, scored a W in an allowance at Belmont and digressed two races from there. He has been shelved since this past September and has had ten workouts since. Although not getting the best SmartCap number through Equibase, this guy could be dangerous as his all-world trainer Chad Brown is a master in these situations. Brown is 24% with horses off 2-6 months, 35% moving from router to sprint and 20% with jockey Manny Franco. Keep him in your exotics.

                  Who will win? #6 – Payne (8/5). Another Chad Brown trainee, this Paynter colt just scored a win over the track against similar company and with Kendrick Carmouche in the irons, they’re hitting at 27% win clip. He’s had four solid works since his last out, including one bullet, so he comes into this in razor sharp form. This guy has a deadly late kick scorching his last furlong recently in just north of twelve seconds – the stretch out will be right up his alley

                  Comment


                  • Re: horse plays

                    thanks fraoli and good post jim..been busy lately and probably have a chance to look tomorrow
                    _______________________________________________
                    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                    Comment


                    • Re: horse plays

                      FREE Friday Gulfstream Race Pick: RT and SmartCap look at the 8th, going off at 4 pm ET
                      Today we’re going SoFla for the 8th race which is a $12.5K Allowance Optional Claiming for Florida bred ladies. This will be decided at a one turn, one mile distance.

                      Looking at Equibase pp’s without using SmartCap, you’ll see that the #3 Hill Valley (8/1) and the #5 Dizzy (2/1) both have the same trainer and owner, yet are not entered together. Frankly, I have always been suspicious of this this type of arrangement because it questions intent.

                      That said, #1 Flashing Diamond (8/5) looks like a tough out in this and why not? Her record at GP is 17:7-3-1 for $114K, she gets a positive jockey change to Irad Ortiz and when he teams up with trainer Steve Klesaris, they’re nailing 30% winners. In her last, the jockey ran her full out to take a three-length lead and did zippo to control the pace. It looked as if he just stepped on the gas, hung on and let it rip. It’s a mere wonder how she held on for the show.

                      I’m going to go with what SmartCap tells me and that’s #5 Dizzy. That 137 class number jumps out and she’ll be in capable hands with Raj Maragh – whose skill level does not meet his 10% win record. Look for her to stay near the pace and get up in the final furlong.

                      Comment


                      • Re: horse plays

                        it's not that i'm being extra picky but just haven't had time this week







                        probably have something tomorrow
                        _______________________________________________
                        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                        Comment


                        • Re: horse plays

                          Sounds good bleeker ! Love the emoji lol !!!

                          Comment


                          • Re: horse plays

                            play 2




                            just want to have a reality check.. be happy to break even over the next 20 or so plays considering how I started and realize not many probably played that one .. hopefully do better npi lol


                            laurel.. sloppy ok

                            R2 #6 fed funds (6-1) 3WP



                            4th @ 9-2
                            Last edited by bleeker; 12-14-2019, 06:34 PM.
                            _______________________________________________
                            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                            Comment


                            • Re: horse plays

                              SmartCap Horse Racing Picks for three Saturday stakes races at Gulfstream Park
                              Today, we’re going to pick three winners from three stakes at Gulfstream.

                              The weather should be perfect - 83 degrees.

                              The 6th race is the $100K Sugar Swirl Stakes. This is a six furlong sprint for fillies and mares three years old and up. According to SmartCap/Equibase, there are three best last contenders and one that is a near second. Additionally, according to Equibase, their class rating for this event is a 101.

                              The three best last runners:

                              #3 A Bit Of Both (3/1) – has zero recent races eclipsing the 101 mark.

                              #8 Meadow Dance (8/1) – zero recent races above 101.

                              #7 Pretty Greely (30/1) – zero recent races above 101.

                              #2 Bronx Beauty (9/2) – raced a 110 (bests all of these) and a 103.

                              Best overall speed is the #7 and best overall class is #6 Stormy Embrace (6/1).

                              I believe the key to this race is twofold – a) there is a ton of early speed and because of that, b) the #2 has been clocking some very slow workouts. This connotes the connections knowing the styles of all else involved and tailoring a different style to utilize this filly to take advantage of what’s in front of her….think Belichick strategizing to take away the other teams’ strengths. Yes, my choice is #2 Bronx Beauty.

                              Next, we have the $100K My Charmer Stakes for the 7th race and its for fillies and mares, three years and up going one mile on turf.

                              The good news is that the deadly tandem of Chad Brown and Irad Oritz are on #6 – Altea (3/1) and the better news is that SmartCap has identified the superior horse in #1 – Mitchell Road (9/5). Let’s hope that his odds will improve. It wouldn’t surprise me if this War Chant filly doesn’t wire this group.

                              And finally…..the 8th race. This is the $100K Rampart Stakes for fillies and mares three years old and up. This is contested over one mile on dirt.

                              This will be interesting to see how Sophie Doyle, on #10 Cairenn (8/1), who has the best last numbers, as well as Paco Lopez on the #11 Cookie Dough (7/2), who has the best overall speed and class, negotiate the first turn. Since Gulfstream is a one turn mile, a good jockey doesn’t want to fry their far outside horse running up to the lead too quick….unless they’re certain they won’t be too harshly contested and can slow/control the pace. I’m going with the #4 Pink Sands (8/1). I believe you’ll see Jose Ortiz lay back, save ground, allow the speed to fry itself and then blow by in the stretch.

                              Comment


                              • Re: horse plays

                                play 3 (play 2 above)

                                tampa bay (know it's off turf)


                                R10 #4 duchess of sussex (5-1) 3WP



                                run on the grass...thought it was off

                                3rd @ 5-1
                                Last edited by bleeker; 12-14-2019, 06:36 PM.
                                _______________________________________________
                                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                                Comment

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