horse plays

[FRAOLI4444]

Re: horse plays

good luck Bleeker

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

plays 1-3


$18 invested
$134.10 returned
cum odds 39 *



*cumulative odds is the sum total of the odds on the horses I play..it will make it easier to calculate avg odds down the road..race results will be given in the individual picks posts

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

probably take a look today

[Jim13]

Re: horse plays

Sunday Horse Racing: RT picks the Springboard Mile at Remington Park, an early Kentucky Derby prep race
Post time is 9:19 pm EST.
For Sunday, December 15th, we’re going to head to Remington for the Springboard Mile. This is a prep for The Derby; the winner gets ten points, second gets four, and two points each for both third and fourth place.

The Springboard is the 12th race on the card and is slated to go off at 9:19 pm EST and don’t count on it. Remington goes slow.

After many times of entering the data in SmartCap using Equibase figures, I have found that races like this, where none of the entrants have competed for this amount of money and is for two-year olds, is an act of futility. So, I am flying without a parachute and using just the pp’s. There are a few mitigating factors when trying to dissect a race such as this.

• Age

• Distance

• Pace

• Post position

• Experience

• Connections

This is a two-turn mile for 2-year-olds and to date, there are six horses that have run that distance and three that, on paper, have the late kick tendencies which give the appearance they are capable of the stretch out.

The six who have gotten the distance: #3 Rowdy Yates (7/2) last out, won a state restricted stakes here November 15th. #5 Jungle Runner (15/1) last out, won a $100K stakes going away at seven furlongs. #7 Southgate (30/1) decent middle move last out; doesn’t seem contentious. #9 Shoplifted (5/1) 24/1 ran in Breeders Cup Juvenile and had zero in the tank. #11 Kirkules (30/1) placed last out to Rowdy Yates getting beat by five lengths. #12 Slew Tang Clan (50/1) smart middle move last out in slop at this track.

Up for second Late kickers: #4 Answer In (5/2) five length winner going away at seven furlongs last out at Churchill. #1 Piece Of Work (12/1) one race under his belt; ran away with a $33K open company MSW here on November 15th. #8 Embolden (9/2) strong stretch move after bad start to get second at Aqueduct. Five times out, four on turf. Questionable.

At the top of this post, I put the track bias for the meet. This is important, because at Remington, the one-mile configuration starts almost at the first turn and several of these horses have yet to run two turns. For us who have watched enough races, you have noticed that a turn to the left is unnatural to horses and until they have done it around an oval, this can be daunting. Additionally, starting at the turn will cause the outside runners to run wide or bolt out of the gate to get position, expend energy, then tuck in to save ground. This, at Remington, is disadvantageous and as you can see by the bias results, the rail is live.

Some tracks, like Penn National for example, have a dead rail. You do not want to be caught there at Penn because, apparently, the track must play heavier.

Regarding connections, trainer Steve Asmussen owns Remington with 74 wins thus far this meet and 104 last year. The closest so far this year is Karl Broberg with 5. Last year, Broberg had 57. Asmussen has three runners in this, #3 Rowdy Yates, #5 Jungle Runner, and #9 Shoplifted. Karl Broberg does not have a horse entered.

The extenuating factor, among others, is the trainer knows the nuances of the track, the horses, and can deftly provide guidance to the jockey if unfamiliar with the strip. Pace – as Maximum Security showed in The Derby this year, young horses can go wayward fast. Often, it’s hard for the jockey to control the front runner due to the horses’ inexperience and in this race, the front runners, 1-6-10-3 will break quick and fight for the lead. Also, look for the outside horses, #’s 7-12 to make a mad rush to the turn.

Now, tying all of this together, who benefits and who wins? The first inclination is to look for an Asmussen horse with an inside draw that has either a strong jockey with a deft touch to grab the lead and control the pace or have mad closing skills. This would land you on to #3 Rowdy Yates. However, after watching the races, I have concluded that the horse I am going to bet on is the #4 Answer In.

This Broken Vow colt rallied from twelve back in his first outing to take the lead, only to get nipped at the wire. In his next, and last race, he crushed the competition with jockey Luis Saez never taking the whip to him. In that race, when prompted, Answer In lifted his head, perked his ears and killed the final furlong in :12.14….an incredible feat for such a young horse. The coups de grace? He gets Javier Castellano in the irons and trainer Brad Cox has won four times with thirteen horses when he stretches out his runners after a maiden win.

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

Sunday Horse Racing: RT picks the Springboard Mile at Remington Park, an early Kentucky Derby prep race
Post time is 9:19 pm EST.
For Sunday, December 15th, we’re going to head to Remington for the Springboard Mile. This is a prep for The Derby; the winner gets ten points, second gets four, and two points each for both third and fourth place.

The Springboard is the 12th race on the card and is slated to go off at 9:19 pm EST and don’t count on it. Remington goes slow.

After many times of entering the data in SmartCap using Equibase figures, I have found that races like this, where none of the entrants have competed for this amount of money and is for two-year olds, is an act of futility. So, I am flying without a parachute and using just the pp’s. There are a few mitigating factors when trying to dissect a race such as this.

• Age

• Distance

• Pace

• Post position

• Experience

• Connections

This is a two-turn mile for 2-year-olds and to date, there are six horses that have run that distance and three that, on paper, have the late kick tendencies which give the appearance they are capable of the stretch out.

The six who have gotten the distance: #3 Rowdy Yates (7/2) last out, won a state restricted stakes here November 15th. #5 Jungle Runner (15/1) last out, won a $100K stakes going away at seven furlongs. #7 Southgate (30/1) decent middle move last out; doesn’t seem contentious. #9 Shoplifted (5/1) 24/1 ran in Breeders Cup Juvenile and had zero in the tank. #11 Kirkules (30/1) placed last out to Rowdy Yates getting beat by five lengths. #12 Slew Tang Clan (50/1) smart middle move last out in slop at this track.

Up for second Late kickers: #4 Answer In (5/2) five length winner going away at seven furlongs last out at Churchill. #1 Piece Of Work (12/1) one race under his belt; ran away with a $33K open company MSW here on November 15th. #8 Embolden (9/2) strong stretch move after bad start to get second at Aqueduct. Five times out, four on turf. Questionable.

At the top of this post, I put the track bias for the meet. This is important, because at Remington, the one-mile configuration starts almost at the first turn and several of these horses have yet to run two turns. For us who have watched enough races, you have noticed that a turn to the left is unnatural to horses and until they have done it around an oval, this can be daunting. Additionally, starting at the turn will cause the outside runners to run wide or bolt out of the gate to get position, expend energy, then tuck in to save ground. This, at Remington, is disadvantageous and as you can see by the bias results, the rail is live.

Some tracks, like Penn National for example, have a dead rail. You do not want to be caught there at Penn because, apparently, the track must play heavier.

Regarding connections, trainer Steve Asmussen owns Remington with 74 wins thus far this meet and 104 last year. The closest so far this year is Karl Broberg with 5. Last year, Broberg had 57. Asmussen has three runners in this, #3 Rowdy Yates, #5 Jungle Runner, and #9 Shoplifted. Karl Broberg does not have a horse entered.

The extenuating factor, among others, is the trainer knows the nuances of the track, the horses, and can deftly provide guidance to the jockey if unfamiliar with the strip. Pace – as Maximum Security showed in The Derby this year, young horses can go wayward fast. Often, it’s hard for the jockey to control the front runner due to the horses’ inexperience and in this race, the front runners, 1-6-10-3 will break quick and fight for the lead. Also, look for the outside horses, #’s 7-12 to make a mad rush to the turn.

Now, tying all of this together, who benefits and who wins? The first inclination is to look for an Asmussen horse with an inside draw that has either a strong jockey with a deft touch to grab the lead and control the pace or have mad closing skills. This would land you on to #3 Rowdy Yates. However, after watching the races, I have concluded that the horse I am going to bet on is the #4 Answer In.

This Broken Vow colt rallied from twelve back in his first outing to take the lead, only to get nipped at the wire. In his next, and last race, he crushed the competition with jockey Luis Saez never taking the whip to him. In that race, when prompted, Answer In lifted his head, perked his ears and killed the final furlong in :12.14….an incredible feat for such a young horse. The coups de grace? He gets Javier Castellano in the irons and trainer Brad Cox has won four times with thirteen horses when he stretches out his runners after a maiden win.

agree.. I'll add he fits my expensive for the pedigree specs angle also.. still holds weight with me even at this stage.. think this is going to be a major contender in the derby preps if he stays healthy.. only problem is think he's going to be around even money.. minor point "broken vow" is the dam sire.. he's by "dialed in"

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

play 4


fairgrounds


R5 #7 sparky's surprise (9-2) 3WP

a closer and this track favors speed and pace pressers.. like other things about him though so gonna give it a go


out of the money @ 9-1

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

play 5


fairgrounds

R8 #4 newellton (9-2) 4WP


2nd @ 2-1(3.60 place)

play 6


tampa bay


R4 #5 guerreron (10-1) 3WP


4th at 10-1

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

through 6 plays


$38 invested
$141.30 returned
60 cum odds (so avg odds 10-1)

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

play 7


aqueduct



R8 #3 dancing kiki (8-1) 3WP


races canceled



play 7 (2nd and final of the day)


gulfstream


R8 #6 heroic activist (15-1) 3WP


out of money @ 25-1

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

added another play gulfstream and amount to play 7 (forgot on initial post)

[Jim13]

Re: horse plays

Friday Laurel Horse Racing pick: RT and SmartCap look at the 8th race at Laurel

On Friday, Dec. 20, we’re going to sunny Laurel, Maryland for the 8th race. It’ll be in the high 30’s and a bright day.

Today’s eighth race is a $35K Allowance Optional claiming race for three-year olds and up going seven furlongs.

On September 27th, #7 – Fort Fortitude was running for the first time off the claim for trainer Jamie Ness. He went off at 7/1 and I recommended him here at Bettors Insider. He won going away and looked spectacular doing it. In his next out, I recommended him again and he won going away at 5/1. On Oct. 31, I recommended him once more, he was moved up in class, went off as the favorite, faltered at the gate and couldn’t get momentum to get back in the race. In his next, and last race, he dropped back to an AOC and got drummed by thirteen lengths.

Now, looking at the money aspect of it, Fort Fortitude was claimed for $40K on Sept. 5. Since that time, he has collected $50,390. If you take out 20% for the jockey and trainers’ portion of the purses, that’ll bring it down to $40,312. If this was your horse, you’d have food, housing, insurance and other expenses which I would not know their entirety. So, in hard costs, this horse has been a financial loser and now he’s dropped to a $35K AOC and is unprotected – the only entrant with that status in this race.

You have to ask yourself, “is this class drop a move to either eke out a small profit/get back to par money-wise, or a move to unload him – a proverbial Hail Mary? I’d suggest the latter.

Most importantly, I believe he has gone off form given his last two awful outings. So, I am going with SmartCaps’ best last #5 – Hanalei’s Houdini (5/2). This 3-year-old colt has been rounding into form and watch for him to lay near the lace and scoot off in the stretch.

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

going to resume this.. busy time for me besides the holidays

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

play 8

fairgrounds (2:57 est)

R4 #3 indelibly (4-1) 4WP


out of money 3-2


play 9


fairgrounds (5:51 est)


R10 #5 rain dance (12-1) 3WP



out of money @ 8-1

can't see ml on this one

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

added a 2nd play at fairgrounds.. done (only allowed 2/day)

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

the slump of course


through 9 plays


58 invested..
$141.30 returned..
95 cumulative odds