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  • Re: horse plays

    saratoga.. if track sloppy go lighter

    R2 #4 soul flight (12-1)

    because of the trainer you'll get a big price.. lots of excusable races and the better ones would be competitive in here.. last time jockey rode him 5 starts back finished 2nd.. last 2 turn race at this track would beat this field.. intrigued at a price


    R5 #6 no mo' spending (5-2)

    R7 #3 love on the run (6-1)
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

    Comment


    • Re: horse plays

      saratoga

      R1 #6 cause I said so (3-1)

      I just find it interesting that joel rides this horse after doing nothing his last race


      R2 #1 bourbon'n ditch (30-1)

      there's a lot of interesting stuff going on here and at stratospheric odds worth a small bet




      R3 #1 no more miracles (4-1)


      R4 #2 catch a cab (2-1)


      R5 #6 guardian moon (2-1)


      R9 #8 king's honor (15-1)
      Last edited by bleeker; 08-06-2020, 02:21 PM.
      _______________________________________________
      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

      Comment


      • Re: horse plays

        2011 Winner of TIS college football contest
        2012 - 2013
        NBA 33-18-1
        MLB 16-12
        NFL 27-13-1
        CFB 12-11
        CBB 9-2
        MLB 2013 2-0
        NHL 1-0

        2013
        GOY 1-0 Mississippi +9.5 Over LSU 27-24

        2018
        NFL 0-1

        Comment


        • Re: horse plays

          Originally posted by FRAOLI4444 View Post


          thanks fraoli
          _______________________________________________
          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

          Comment


          • Re: horse plays

            finished saratoga
            _______________________________________________
            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

            Comment


            • Re: horse plays

              saratoga


              R1 #2 broadway joe (30-1)

              if you're playing live and see a horse like this drift up to 50-60's or higher as always go less.. playing in advance if you have a standard bet for single digit odds ease off 25% to 50%.. had a very good run from a 55-1 yesterday in R1.. very game on the front end and missed 2nd by a length..chad won with an odds on


              R2 #8 seven seven (6-1) 876

              checks a lot of boxes what I look for in a 2yo firster including my often mentioned relative to the specs angle and speed pedigree.. take a half unit on #1 cobra kai (5-1) also


              R3 #8 cape cod diva (12-1)

              fact joel jumps aboard for a minor trainer (believe guy's been around since I started playing horses in the late 70's) is interesting.. has run the kind of lines in sprints I like for stretch out horses.. lightly raced horse with a stamina oriented pedigree


              R4 #5 halo city (4-1)

              you'll get more than you should on this one with the trainer/jock combo



              R5 #2 honor way (5-1) half unit
              R5 #5 vast (15-1) half unit


              this level of competition always produces a salty bunch and here it's like a stakes race.. type of races I should lay off but like what I see in these two.. sometimes with the change in venue horses like this can step up a notch.. 2 is not really that much of a reach



              R6

              #1 o'gotten girl (15-1) half
              #4 leia marie (8-1)half

              another 2yo msw loaded with big pedigrees... expensive auction purchases and blueblood homebreds.. trombetta who I've hit with twice ships up a first time homebred with a huge pedigree.. this one a different type then the other who won and paid $71..that one an expensive for the specs type.. not that this one couldn't win but hopping off here (not one of the two choices above).. 4 is extremely expensive for the specs and the 1 fairly expensive for the specs.. the latter attracting joel to ride with a lower profile trainer brings me aboard (also more speed oriented ped) deep waters and will not be a contest play for sure.. not going to feel good if mr trombetta wins lol #3 tappingintosuccess (15-1)



              R7 #2 queen kahen (12-1)

              I feel ml on this one also has a lot to do with trainer.. should be value play



              R8 #4 wild north (15-1) half
              R8 #7 jens battle (8-1)half





              R9 #1 papetu (10-1)

              another value because of the trainer.. like the inside post


              R10 #5 dipping in (9-2)

              his 2 (short) turf sprint numbers and they were vs better out of town.. gets joel and trainer solid applicable categories
              Last edited by bleeker; 08-07-2020, 11:27 AM.
              _______________________________________________
              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

              Comment


              • Re: horse plays

                finished
                _______________________________________________
                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                Comment


                • Re: horse plays

                  Thanks bleeker
                  2011 Winner of TIS college football contest
                  2012 - 2013
                  NBA 33-18-1
                  MLB 16-12
                  NFL 27-13-1
                  CFB 12-11
                  CBB 9-2
                  MLB 2013 2-0
                  NHL 1-0

                  2013
                  GOY 1-0 Mississippi +9.5 Over LSU 27-24

                  2018
                  NFL 0-1

                  Comment


                  • Re: horse plays

                    Originally posted by FRAOLI4444 View Post
                    Thanks bleeker

                    np fraoli



                    here's today's


                    saratoga


                    R1 #2b gunman (6-1)
                    R1 #5 compliant (7-2) klaravich

                    other half of the entry will probably go and not helpless either.. never thought I'd bet todd (2b) and chad in the same race in a small field but that's how good this maiden special race is.. no surprise on the undercard on travers day.. this race has the talent level of an advanced allowance race at a smaller track


                    R2 #5 american lincoln (15-1)

                    really not bad on paper at all and exits some very fast races.. last race he ran here on a fast track last year could win this.. connections get you this price.. definitely worthwhile at a big number


                    R3 #3 risky mischief (4-1) full
                    R3 #6 canarsie angel (12-1) half

                    wimping out a little here but really like both


                    R4 #5 hieroglyphics (7-5)

                    unusual conditions for this track clm n1y 2020 but fit this horse like a glove.. level makes sense and one of the hottest trainer/jock combos at the track (maker/jose)


                    R5 #2 american gentleman (10-1)

                    both todd and chad have expensive firsters by into mischief who right now imo is the best sire for class and speed there is.. I'll go with this ray handal 2nd time starter by "american pharoah".. expensive himself, got some good experience on the turf last out (and doesn't give things away in the pp's).. trainer having a great meet and wouldn't be shocked if they had this race in mind (travers undercard) in the first place



                    R6 #6 mystical man (8-1)

                    2yo msw 2 turns grass.. while not ultra-expensive this one definitely qualifies as a "relative to the specs horse".. excellent trainer jock combo..this is a killer field with many expensive, big pedigree horses including chad with #1 secret potion (5-2).. take a half unit hedge with him


                    R7 #7 come dancing (3-1)

                    outside post and can sit off what figures to be a brutal pace.. one turn, extended sprints and home cooking seems to be this horses best game


                    R8 #5 pure sensation (3-1)

                    9yo off about a 7 month layoff last race and was close to a ridiculously fast pace vs grade 1 competition.. this a much easier spot and horse loves it up here


                    R9 #7 fools gold (5-1)

                    have a hunch he'll be a lot tighter 2nd off the long layoff.. 2 races back wins this race.. castellano back aboard


                    R10 #3 mrs danvers (8-1)

                    a reach but here's why..

                    what she did here last year..
                    big pedigree..
                    potential pace battle of 2 favorites #5 gamine (3-5)and #6 venetian harbor (8-5)
                    respect for shug to put her here



                    R11 travers

                    #8 south bend (15-1)

                    what he did in kentucky on fast tracks as a 2yo..
                    looks like another furlong wouldn't have hurt him last race in ohio derby..
                    why dismiss that race..figure on brisnet competitive except for ttl.. reason you'll get a good price


                    #2 country grammer (6-1)

                    another situation where I'll extend expensive for the specs.. got 1 1/8 as a 2yo.. won last race at this track @ 1 1/8 and that race is normally run at belmont.. understand a furlong farther today but if you're going to get a feel next best thing.. potential to sit a nice stalking trip off uncle chuck and caracaro.. chad thinks enough to try it.. irad and other jose
                    _______________________________________________
                    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                    Comment


                    • Re: horse plays





                      thanks buddy
                      Last edited by bleeker; 08-09-2020, 09:31 AM.
                      2011 Winner of TIS college football contest
                      2012 - 2013
                      NBA 33-18-1
                      MLB 16-12
                      NFL 27-13-1
                      CFB 12-11
                      CBB 9-2
                      MLB 2013 2-0
                      NHL 1-0

                      2013
                      GOY 1-0 Mississippi +9.5 Over LSU 27-24

                      2018
                      NFL 0-1

                      Comment


                      • Re: horse plays

                        saratoga


                        R2 #5 seasons (9-5)


                        R4 #6 saratoga commando (5-2)

                        2yo fts who's not extremely expensive but relative to the pedigree is (expensive but not extremely).. chad, way above avg speed pedigree and of course the name.. jose rides.. asmussen has an expensive firster who's the favorite.. interesting to see how it's bet

                        R5 #2 ms boombastic (6-1)

                        mott won with a fts yesterday but that was a 2yo and these are 3yo's.. some lightly raced horses who've put up solid numbers in limited starts so this a tough field..included in those is another mott #6 bastet(5-2)..staying with my expensive for the pedigree angle and nice works.. I think making this one 6-1 ml is according a lot of repect and could definitely see her odds being higher




                        R6 #5 secondary market (6-1) klaravich




                        chad has another in here #6 primacy (9-2)..going with this one cause he earned a figure as good as these as a 2yo in september (his last start, 2nd career).. these owners like to win up here I think explains at least part of the reason for the wait


                        R7 #5 mo me mo my (5-2)

                        finally dropping to claimers where she belongs



                        R10 #4 bank gala (8-1)
                        Last edited by bleeker; 08-09-2020, 01:28 PM.
                        _______________________________________________
                        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                        Comment


                        • Re: horse plays

                          Last edited by bleeker; 08-09-2020, 01:17 PM.
                          2011 Winner of TIS college football contest
                          2012 - 2013
                          NBA 33-18-1
                          MLB 16-12
                          NFL 27-13-1
                          CFB 12-11
                          CBB 9-2
                          MLB 2013 2-0
                          NHL 1-0

                          2013
                          GOY 1-0 Mississippi +9.5 Over LSU 27-24

                          2018
                          NFL 0-1

                          Comment


                          • Re: horse plays

                            added saratoga 9
                            _______________________________________________
                            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                            Comment


                            • Re: horse plays

                              Originally posted by FRAOLI4444 View Post
                              thanks fraoli
                              _______________________________________________
                              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                              Comment


                              • Re: horse plays

                                last race at saratoga is 10 not 9..corrected above
                                _______________________________________________
                                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                                Comment

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