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  • #2446
    Re: horse plays

    belmont saturday

    R1 #2 bydawnsearlylight (30-1)

    2yo new york bred (whole card today is) who is by an elite kentucky sire out of a stakes winning mare.. legitimate excuses in only 2 races and gets a big jockey upgrade.. nicely hidden and think he'll be under 10-1

    R2 #7 satisfy (4-1)

    has won 4/5 of his career races.. only loss a 2nd in the slop in career race #2.. exits a n1x ot open allowance race that figure wise was as fast as the grade 2 the 2 favorites came out of.. another NY bred with big ky pedigree which is becoming more common with the big purses there.. the foal just has to be dropped in ny and it's a ny bred


    R3 #10 tapitation (10-1)

    some races don't lend themselves to explanations as much as others..this is one of those.. for the record I don't give reasons for most of the races that make for a good write-up but sometimes have the motivation

    R4 #4 eye luv lu lu (9-2)
    R5 pass
    R6 pass

    R7 #5 time warp (15-1)
    R8 #1 poppy's destiny* (6-1)
    R9 #2 take charge aubrey* (5-1)
    R10 #8 sea foam* (12-1)



    keeneland

    R2 #6 she's so bossy (5-1)
    R3 #5 silver kitten (12-1) #7 lasting memory (30-1)
    R4 #4 he's the souperwon (4-1)
    R5 pass
    R6 pass
    R7 #5 lucky move (12-1)
    R8 #9 superioritycomplex (10-1) 8 9 10
    R9 #4 true royalty (12-1)
    R10 #12 cosmic code (6-1)o
    Last edited by bleeker; 10-20-2018, 02:34 PM.
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

    Comment

    • #2447
      Re: horse plays

      added keeneland 2 3
      _______________________________________________
      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

      Comment

      • #2448
        Re: horse plays

        through 6 races both tracks.. won't be on 5 6 at either track
        _______________________________________________
        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

        Comment

        • #2449
          Re: horse plays

          finished keeneland
          _______________________________________________
          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

          Comment

          • #2450
            Re: horse plays

            finished
            _______________________________________________
            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

            Comment

            • #2451
              Re: horse plays

              yesterday was bloody awful


              keeneland sunday


              R3 #12 bluegrass parkway (5-1)
              R5 #3 mo moxie (5-1)

              R8 #4 shezaprado (12-1)
              R9 #2 grateful cause (6-1)
              Last edited by bleeker; 10-21-2018, 03:19 PM.
              _______________________________________________
              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

              Comment

              • #2452
                Re: horse plays

                added R5
                _______________________________________________
                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                Comment

                • #2453
                  Re: horse plays

                  added kee 8 9
                  _______________________________________________
                  ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                  Comment

                  • #2454
                    Re: horse plays

                    parx monday

                    R2 #9 littlemissbusiness (5-1)

                    this race clm5000n1y (6 months)..that would be 4/22 and this one's last win on 4/21 so this is the first day eligible for this condition..claimed for $12500 last out in june and now up for 5000 so possibly a bad sign..however winners share today is 11k so the drop worries me less..last race beats this field..trainer 4/14 first off the claim and avg win price close to $60..nothing that big today but like this one

                    R4 #9 animeauxselle (2-1)
                    R7 #6 tactical plan (6-1)

                    R9 #6 passport (30-1) scratched

                    simply ridiculous morning line.. it's a mcl 10k and he came in 3rd by less than 3 lengths in a mdn 30k last out.. not concerned about the drop as he's a cheap pedigree and his best efforts have been at around this level 7-8 starts back.. terrible trainer and above average jockey .. odds last 3..57-1*58-1*83-1*32-1 maybe something to do with it.. guessing around 8-1 if he goes
                    Last edited by bleeker; 10-22-2018, 03:41 PM.
                    _______________________________________________
                    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                    Comment

                    • #2455
                      Re: horse plays

                      finished parx
                      _______________________________________________
                      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                      Comment

                      • #2456
                        Re: horse plays

                        belmont

                        R4 #1 rossby (3-1)


                        keeneland

                        R6 #9 rahway (5-1)
                        _______________________________________________
                        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                        Comment

                        • #2457
                          Re: horse plays

                          keeneland

                          R3 #5 homefieldadvantage (6-1)
                          R3 #7 too much detail (20-1)

                          2 horses this race.. the 20-1 is a firster homebred with a big pedigree on the dam side.. sire is a 15k stallion with above average first turf.. trainer bad debut but every once in a while.. you never know

                          R4 #1 frost or frippery (8-1)

                          way he ran his last sprint (like the even running lines) should set him up nice for the stretchout.. trainer excellent sprint to a route and ran competively in routes at this level at elp over the summer

                          R5 #7 commissioner bolt (12-1)

                          R6 #7 reelfoot (12-1)

                          debuter with a nice pedigree that's more sprint oriented.. solid steady works at this track.. trainer jock combo last 60 days 3/8
                          with an average win price of $71..one had to be a triple digit winner
                          I would guess.. trainer also a very profitable proposition last 3 years and included in that is his maiden races.. probably the horses he hit with this jockey aboard helped those numbers


                          asmussen has 2 first time starters this race.. #2 cost $700k and #5 cost $1k..that's not a typo
                          $1000 (3 zeroes) lol


                          R9 #2 bee balm (10-1)

                          calumet farm homebred classy distance and turf bloodlines and in his only crack at it in his 2nd start (has 3 lifetime starts) missed by a half length at GP.. and that was breaking from the rail in a 12 horse field as a 2yo..think the kentucky downs sprint will set him up nice to stretch out 2nd off the long layoff.. jockey a little below the radar midwesterner but is an excellent on the turf

                          belmont

                          R4 #2 always shopping (8-1)
                          R5 #7 prince of new york (12-1)

                          R7 #4 danielle's pride (15-1)

                          since ny breds are much better than they were 15 + years ago (big purses and other incentives) the drop to clm 40k n2L from n1x ot state bred allowance much more significant than it used to be.. feel she's had some legit excuses and could wake up at this level at a price
                          Last edited by bleeker; 10-25-2018, 12:31 PM.
                          _______________________________________________
                          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                          Comment

                          • #2458
                            Re: horse plays

                            added bel 4 5
                            _______________________________________________
                            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                            Comment

                            • #2459
                              Re: horse plays

                              finished
                              _______________________________________________
                              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                              Comment

                              • #2460
                                Re: horse plays

                                Bleeker nice paying picks at Belmont today. Good job !

                                Comment

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