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Thread: horse plays

  1. #3001

    Re: horse plays

    meadowlands (harness)

    R7 #1 another breath (10-1)
    R10 #3 rockin praline (3-1)
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  2. #3002

    Re: horse plays

    keeneland

    R3 #8 alfons walde (12-1)

    R9 the lexington stakes (G3)

    #3 sueno (5-1)


    R11 #8 kulik bear (12-1)


    oaklawn


    R5 #2 poets dreamed (5-1)


    asmussen trained homebred by an elite first out sire and excellent mud sire.. dam won her first 5 starts and went 10/19 career.. in her debut she won by 12 lengths and was geared down at the end (my research)

    sire is maclean's music so aptly named




    R11 arkansas derby (G1)


    #4 tikhvin view (30-1)

    first two races (4th career today) earned figures as good as any in this field.. they were in sprints though.. what elevates him up to interesting to me in spite of that is they were both at 7f..if one was a 7f a little interested.. both at 6f not interested at at all.. last race was the gotham and that was basically mid pack all the way around in a race that had a freaky fast pace.. encouraged that asmussen would try him here.. bred top and bottom for distance and his dam sire is deputy minister who was a class of 79..don't see his name much anymore but he's considered one of the top 5 damsires of the last 30-40 years..think he'll be aggressive with him today and gun for the lead (nothing to lose).. also track should be a mess today and that's another wildcard I don't mind at a price



    aqueduct

    R6 #2 bank examiner* (6-1)
    R9 #7 the grand canal (5-2)
    Last edited by bleeker; 04-13-2019 at 02:07 PM.
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  3. #3003

    Re: horse plays

    Saturday, April 13th

    1st - Caruso has an IV of 1.5 while Mr. Bennett has a 0.6. Gonzalez is 1.14 with her angle. By the numbers…

    Win 2

    Exactas 2/3,6

    DD 2/1,3

    2nd – Dacosta is 80% ITM with UCEs (with 6-15 Win) and he has 30% Win MATPs with both runners. Only once were both ITM. Mena only had one mount for Rodriguez but you saw how that worked out with Bowersock’s winner yesterday. Darien is 50% ITM with Non-shipping L1-3s.

    Exactas 1,3/4

    Weighted DDs 1,2,3,5/2,8

    3rd – Potts has a good situation here. Nobody is claiming First Reward (2) for $25,000 and yet the 5YO drops two classes moving from a 103-103 to a 96-95 after being well above par in last two. DB has a 4 characteristic MATP and is 50% Win with it (7-14) for the past ten years.

    Hinsley is 5% Win with the 6.5F to 1Mi Turf move and Sienkewicz is 3-77 with Dropdowns.

    It doesn’t get much better than this.

    $100 Weighted Exacta Box 2,8

    Saver Trifectas 2,8/All/2,8 (12 bets) to cover

    $100 Weighted DDs 2,8/5

    4th – Harty’s piece was above par for T/E in last two and he’s 59% ITM with his angle.

    Saver Trifectas All/5/1,3,4,7 (32 bets) to cover

    6th – Pick 3 - 1,2,5,6/3,8,10/2,7,9

    Early Pic 4 (2-5) .... All (6) WT 1, 4, 8 WT 5, 9 WT 5 ** ... $.50 ... $18.00

    Late Pic 4 (6-9) .... 2, 5, 6, 8 WT 3, 10 WT 2, 7, 8 WT 3, 5 ... $.50 ... $24.00

     
     
  4. #3004

    Re: horse plays

    added arkansas derby
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  5. #3005

    Re: horse plays

    Quote Originally Posted by Jim13 View Post
    Saturday, April 13th

    1st - Caruso has an IV of 1.5 while Mr. Bennett has a 0.6. Gonzalez is 1.14 with her angle. By the numbers…

    Win 2

    Exactas 2/3,6

    DD 2/1,3

    2nd – Dacosta is 80% ITM with UCEs (with 6-15 Win) and he has 30% Win MATPs with both runners. Only once were both ITM. Mena only had one mount for Rodriguez but you saw how that worked out with Bowersock’s winner yesterday. Darien is 50% ITM with Non-shipping L1-3s.

    Exactas 1,3/4

    Weighted DDs 1,2,3,5/2,8

    3rd – Potts has a good situation here. Nobody is claiming First Reward (2) for $25,000 and yet the 5YO drops two classes moving from a 103-103 to a 96-95 after being well above par in last two. DB has a 4 characteristic MATP and is 50% Win with it (7-14) for the past ten years.

    Hinsley is 5% Win with the 6.5F to 1Mi Turf move and Sienkewicz is 3-77 with Dropdowns.

    It doesn’t get much better than this.

    $100 Weighted Exacta Box 2,8

    Saver Trifectas 2,8/All/2,8 (12 bets) to cover

    $100 Weighted DDs 2,8/5

    4th – Harty’s piece was above par for T/E in last two and he’s 59% ITM with his angle.

    Saver Trifectas All/5/1,3,4,7 (32 bets) to cover

    6th – Pick 3 - 1,2,5,6/3,8,10/2,7,9

    Early Pic 4 (2-5) .... All (6) WT 1, 4, 8 WT 5, 9 WT 5 ** ... $.50 ... $18.00

    Late Pic 4 (6-9) .... 2, 5, 6, 8 WT 3, 10 WT 2, 7, 8 WT 3, 5 ... $.50 ... $24.00

    like this one.. what's DB and MATP?
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  6. #3006

    Re: horse plays

    btw the above is for tampa bay
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  7. #3007

    Re: horse plays

    added aqueduct 6 9
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  8. #3008

    Re: horse plays

    Quote Originally Posted by bleeker View Post
    keeneland

    R3 #8 alfons walde (12-1)

    R9 the lexington stakes (G3)

    #3 sueno (5-1)


    R11 #8 kulik bear (12-1)


    oaklawn


    R5 #2 poets dreamed (5-1)


    asmussen trained homebred by an elite first out sire and excellent mud sire.. dam won her first 5 starts and went 10/19 career.. in her debut she won by 12 lengths and was geared down at the end (my research)

    sire is maclean's music so aptly named




    R11 arkansas derby (G1)


    #4 tikhvin view (30-1)

    first two races (4th career today) earned figures as good as any in this field.. they were in sprints though.. what elevates him up to interesting to me in spite of that is they were both at 7f..if one was a 7f a little interested.. both at 6f not interested at at all.. last race was the gotham and that was basically mid pack all the way around in a race that had a freaky fast pace.. encouraged that asmussen would try him here.. bred top and bottom for distance and his dam sire is deputy minister who was a class of 79..don't see his name much anymore but he's considered one of the top 5 damsires of the last 30-40 years..think he'll be aggressive with him today and gun for the lead (nothing to lose).. also track should be a mess today and that's another wildcard I don't mind at a price



    aqueduct

    R6 #2 bank examiner* (6-1)
    R9 #7 the grand canal (5-2)

    both mine and the #1 by new nyb sire "central banker".. a son of speightstown who's gotten off to a nice start as a stallion.. this race was a msw for nyb.. #1 cost $110k and making his debut while mine cost $85k and making his 2nd career start..a good amount of money for a $7500 stallion and both had some production from the dam.. btw first start for mine was in july at saratoga as a 2yo and did little (turf sprint).. linda rice was 4-1 ml and wound up going off 9-1..mine wound up going off 2-1..rice using jose lezcano 8/19 last 60 days..englehart/alvarado (#2) 5/10 last 60 and a solid pair overall also ..if you were viewing up to the race you would say #1 was dead on the board and mine was the live one.. long story short #1 wired the field and won easy at 9-1 and I finished 2nd and no apparent excuses either..just goes to show so called "smart money" doesn't always get it right



    should also be said that linda rice is one of the best trainers at aqueduct before the big boys come back and does pretty well after they get here also



    didn't watch all the races leading up but the rail in sprints at aqueduct is terrible so that makes the win even better
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  9. #3009

    Re: horse plays

    meadowlands

    R1 #9 rhyme and roll (15-1)
    R2 #1 sams a champ a (9-2)
    R3 #8 in rock we trust (15-1)
    R4 #9 live on (9-2)


    R7 #3 dubious claim (10-1)
    R9 #8 incredible shark (6-1)


    R10 #7 ocean colony (8-1)
    R11 #3 superior raven (8-1)
    R12 #6 chip walther (8-1)
    Last edited by bleeker; 04-13-2019 at 09:50 PM.
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  10. #3010

    Re: horse plays

    finished meadowlands
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  11. #3011

    Re: horse plays

    monticello tuesday

    just breaking it up a bit from the flats.. enjoy the trotters on occasion


    R1 #4 rebel jet (5-2)
    R2 #8 no reason at all (12-1)

    breaking just inside of him (#7) a 14yo who's made 355 lifetime starts (30-53-61)* who's (4-1) ml driven by one of the top 3 drivers (so's mine and dropping in class).. never like these outside posts at half mile tracks but feel it's made up for in odds.. #6 (5-2) a 3yo making his 8th career start.. 11 years difference* breaking from adjoining posts lol..saw at least four 13yo + horses yesterday


    R3 #3 cantyouhearmeknockn (3-1)

    70/70/95/50/43/16... off odds last 6 starts but 3-1 today (70 last)
    .. has raced a week apart as far as I can see in pp's (those 6)..big class drop and driver switch


    R4 #4 a hard day's night (10-1)


    R5 #3 northern launcher (10-1)

    has had to deal with extreme outside post 3 of last 4 starts and only good post raced with better than these..#1 driver aboard, top 3 trainer and lowest level (with good post).. race 5 back at northfield would be good vs these


    R6 #3 crypto man (3-1) ridiculous ml

    why they think this guy will go off 3-1 beyond me.. odds on and much better than this field
    ( now i've put the ultimate jinx on him lol)

    R7 #2 ari allstar (10-1)



    R8 #3 cheyenne reider (5-2)

    ships in from meadowlands off 11 day rest.. exact same maneuver (bigm, 11 days) 6 starts back yielded a 2nd by a nose.. bruce aldrich drives again
    Last edited by bleeker; 04-16-2019 at 10:33 AM.
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  12. #3012

    Re: horse plays

    Tampa

    1st – Allen Jr. is now 2-28 since returning when not up for Bowersock. Several runners in this race have been par recently. Centeno had a $5000 weekend in my back yard with two 2nds from three mounts at Aqueduct and should be rested up. Since he’s had some competition here in Oldsmar, his winning numbers have steadily declined from 102 to 83 to 65 in L3T and this has caused him to stick around longer and pick up the remaining crumbs as the season winds down and others pack up their tack and depart or have made their $$$ and are taking a breather before their next push.

    Exacta Key Box 7/3,5

    2nd – The 3 + 3 profile hasn’t let us down this season and father and son appear likely to be neck and neck at the finish versus these. They both have ITM angles in the high 60s here, with Mr. Bennett 32% Win with UCEs and the younger 29% Win with Rightbacks.

    Exacta Box 2,6

    Weighted DDs 2,6/3,4,8

    3rd – Harty is 54% ITM with NCs and outperforms with 3TTs including two big bombs at the current meeting with the angle. Arboritanza “cleans up” with 39% Win and 58% ITM versus his ordinary 9% and 25%.

    Exacta Key Box 4/3,8 and Saver Trifectas 3,4,8/1,6,7/3,4,8

    4th – I had to break out the external hard drive to find a trainer profile for Eric Reed (2011) but he was 25% Win with L1-3s and 2Ss here. JPM is strictly a surrogate for the Kentucky invader from Lexington. Londono is 70% ITM with Non-layoffs on the Dirt. KOC rarely misses with FTSs with a +$0.67 ROI.

    Exacta Box 5,7,8

    Saver Trifectas 5,7,8/1,2,3/5,7,8

    5th – Pick 3 - 1,4,6,7,8,10/6,7,8/6,8 (36 bets)

    6th – JPM is 2-75 with PTBs. Thomas is 1-34 with L4-8s, Pimental is 3-56 with Dropdowns, 5% with Non-shipping L1-3 and Sammy (5) is sub-par in all four Tampa starts. Ward is 80% ITM with Plain Dropdowns in L3T and 65% ITM with the RtS + Dropdown with all solid singles. Mr. Bennett is 32% Win and 80% ITM with UCEs and Flower Punch (7) has a 72% ITM angle. M.R. Thomas “cleans up” with 22 & 71 versus 12 & 37.

    Exacta Box 6,7,8

    7th – Clement is 24% Win with FTS + FTT types and Sumaya Us are powerhouse owners with an AEPS of $16,500 in L3 and 27% Winners. Distorted Humor is the #2 Sire here in Oldsmar with 22% Winners. Morales and Camacho both win 10% with FTSs, so the nod goes to Clement.

    Old Fort (6) was +4 in debut with the only positive turf variant of the day and has a perfect %E (50 vs. 49.99) for the StR move. Correas Jr. bombs with Layoffs and Lightly raced types. Making up four lengths late when they are flying is noteworthy. Comparing R7 to R8, Old Fort looks like a lock compared to Gonzalez’s ML favorite Elegante. Just sayin’…

    Pick 3 – 6/All/3

    Exacta Box 6,8

    Saver Trifectas 1/6,8/All

    8th – DDs All/3

    9th – Harty is 34% Win and 66% ITM with the 2TS + 2TT in L5T and Indigo Gin (3) was above par in debut.

    Saver Exactas 2,6,8,9/3 to cover if alive to a big DD or Pick 3

    Early Pic 4 (2-5) .... 6** WT 3, 4, 6, 8 WT 6, 7, 8 WT 1, 2, 7 ... $.50 ... $18.00

    Late Pic 4 (6-9) .... 5, 6, 7, 8 WT 2, 5 WT 6 WT 3, 4, 6, 8... $.50 ... $12.00

     
     
  13. #3013

    Re: horse plays

    tampa bay

    R3 #9 red hood (8-1)
    R7 #7 outrider (15-1)
    R9 #1 joyful night (12-1)



    keeneland


    R6 #9 bakers bay (12-1)

    solid steady payson park works for this shug firster with a big pedigree.. just an average first out trainer but have to think they'd like to notch one at keeneland.. jose ortiz (one of the best) rides and he's 5/7 riding for shug in the past 60 days


    R8 #8 neepawa (3-1)
    Last edited by bleeker; 04-17-2019 at 01:04 PM.
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  14. #3014

    Re: horse plays

    added R6 keeneland.. probably it.as I don't like the offerings today
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  15. #3015

    Re: horse plays

    gulfstream

    R5 #4 trading cents (20-1)


    won off a very similar running line/figure/drop 3 starts back.. many highly profitable angles for jockey/trainer and combo of them together apply


    keeneland


    R7 #5 british invader (5-2)


    horse 2 starts back (6th career) made his first start in a dirt route vs mdn $15k at fairgrounds and won comfortably.. next out reasonable spot vs clm 16kb and caught an exceptionally fast race for that level
    and claimed by #1 claiming trainer (everywhere) amoss.. short price but just looks much the best
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  16. #3016

    Re: horse plays

    Nothing for Tampa today. Too much rain !!

     
     
  17. #3017

    Re: horse plays

    Quote Originally Posted by Jim13 View Post
    Nothing for Tampa today. Too much rain !!

    yeah rain is a no go for me... thanks for putting his picks up jim
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  18. #3018

    Re: horse plays

    oaklawn

    R1 #7 major bizkit (6-1)
    R2 #2 light bound bid (12-1)


    keeneland

    R7 #6 altar of speed (10-1)
    R10 #8 the rock says (5-1)



    lone star


    R8 #1 simple pleasure (7-2)
    Last edited by bleeker; 04-19-2019 at 08:44 PM.
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  19. #3019

    Re: horse plays

    Thanks for sharing your plays i check everyday
    2011 Winner of TIS college football contest
    2012 - 2013
    NBA 33-18-1
    MLB 16-12
    NFL 27-13-1
    CFB 12-11
    CBB 9-2
    MLB 2013 2-0
    NHL 1-0

    2013
    GOY 1-0 Mississippi +9.5 Over LSU 27-24

    2018
    NFL 0-1

     
     
  20. #3020

    Re: horse plays

    Quote Originally Posted by FRAOLI4444 View Post
    Thanks for sharing your plays i check everyday

    no problem fraoli4444.. appreciate the feedback
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  21. #3021

    Re: horse plays

    added kee 7 10..sorry so late
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  22. #3022

    Re: horse plays

    meadowlands.. friday

    R2 #3 lucius vorenus (5-1)
    R3 $8 duck duck dragon (7-2)
    R4 #3 shezza gnp n (7-2)
    R5 #1 respect our flag (4-1)
    R6 #9 trix are for kids (9-2)
    R7 #7 empress deo (10-1)
    R8 #8 arrakis (15-1)
    R9 #5 amethyst seelster (15-1)



    R10 #9 world on edge (5-1)
    R11 #5 roundtown rocker (3-1)
    R12 pass
    R13 #6 knight of victory (8-1)
    Last edited by bleeker; 04-19-2019 at 08:23 PM.
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  23. #3023

    Re: horse plays

    finished meadowlands
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  24. #3024

    Re: horse plays

    added lone star 8
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     
  25. #3025

    Re: horse plays

    Quote Originally Posted by bleeker View Post
    meadowlands.. friday

    R2 #3 lucius vorenus (5-1)
    R3 $8 duck duck dragon (7-2)
    R4 #3 shezza gnp n (7-2)
    R5 #1 respect our flag (4-1)
    R6 #9 trix are for kids (9-2)
    R7 #7 empress deo (10-1)
    R8 #8 arrakis (15-1)
    R9 #5 amethyst seelster (15-1)



    R10 #9 world on edge (5-1)
    R11 #5 roundtown rocker (3-1)
    R12 pass
    R13 #6 knight of victory (8-1)

    just recapping cause it's something i infrequently do
    (harness)

    q=quarter length
    h=half length
    t = .75 lengths

    R2 ..4th @ 21-1...q off 2nd
    R3..PLACE @ 9-1 ($7.60)
    R4.. 5th @ 4-1
    R5..WINNER $$11.20
    R6..WINNER $$14.40
    R7..4th @ 28-1
    R8..5th @ 24-1 ..3 lengths winner
    R9..last @ 32-1
    R10..PLACE @ 4-1 ($5.40)
    R11..PLACE @ 7-2 ($3.80)**
    R12..PASS
    R13 ..WINNER $$23.60

    ** 2nd choice won (2-1) ..mine beat out a 101-1 by a nose for 2nd $568 tri $1,dime super with 51-1 4th was $368
    Last edited by bleeker; 04-20-2019 at 08:43 AM.
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then

     
     

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