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  • Re: horse plays

    Originally posted by bleeker View Post
    well don't get a lot of opportunities to bet them obviously as it's only saratoga for the most part..
    I always try to find something that's a little hidden as last thing I want is a horse who won or came in the money in his last race..they'll win their share but too obvious even if they're off a long layoff..I'll take a peak at trainer and jockey records but that's a secondary thing for me..I have one favorite move that doesn't show itself often but does today with this horse..like horses coming in off 11f or 12f flat races if they've run a certain way in them..I like a gradual fade front to middle or middle to back..feel this prepares them nicely for the extra 4-7 furlongs they'll have to travel in the hurdles..also like to see that they've been competitive in the past running in them..not really much more than that..maybe a horse who ran an average race off a long layoff and had run well in the past and taking a needed drop in class..but that's no different than playing the flats and not particular to the hurdles
    also worth mentioning that I like those type of running lines for horses going from 6-7f to 8-9f and same logic applies..I prefer at least a 2f stretchout in these situations so 7f must go to 9f which doesn't happen very often..so mostly 6-6.5f to 8-8.5f..and as with the hurdles I like them to have gone the long distance in the past..exception would be a lightly raced horse who has route bloodlines. .I'll forgive lack of experience in that situation
    Last edited by bleeker; 08-09-2017, 06:30 AM.
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

    Comment


    • Re: horse plays

      Thanks bleeker for the info !! Yeah with the uk/Ireland racing they do a lot with weights and even longer distance 3 miles !! GL with your selections today, let's get the hot streak going !!

      Comment


      • Re: horse plays

        thanks jim13..I hope so

        trying to pick lower hanging fruit today so hopefully get at least 1 correct
        _______________________________________________
        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

        Comment


        • Re: horse plays

          Originally posted by bleeker View Post
          thanks jim13..I hope so

          trying to pick lower hanging fruit today so hopefully get at least 1 correct
          I asked for it making that comment.. couple of seconds not good enough

          saratoga thursday

          R2 #7 prost (20-1)

          if your gonna try to hit a price horse why not a mdn clm 30k going 9f..I think the even race troubled trip in debut at aqu is actually a useful primer to gain experience and prepare for a stretch out ..lots of droppers in here and that ain't happening cause this bunch is living up to expectations


          R3 #4 dooder (2-1)

          going to break my don't play chad brown firster rule because this gal cost an extraordinary amount of money
          with the lack of production on the bottom..feel these types are bought based on their physicality which is an angle I like


          R9 #8 new canaan (6-1)

          even at 40k nice piece of change for 6500 stud no production on the bottom..smart strike dadam sire always a good thing for turf..


          del mar

          R6 #6 lemon crush (20-1)

          bred,owned and trained by the same lady..she hasn't started a horse this year but has trainer stats (guess from last year )have her 4/20 msw-mcl..by new sire richard's kid out of a winning dam who has 2 winners from as many starters and both won as 2yo's which is a big plus..one blazing work 1/76 three races back but all others quite
          tepid..kind of says to me she has the speed when needed and they just want to get her in condition
          Last edited by bleeker; 08-10-2017, 02:56 PM.
          _______________________________________________
          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

          Comment


          • Re: horse plays

            added R9 at saratoga and R6 at dmr
            _______________________________________________
            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

            Comment


            • Re: horse plays

              I have been using brisnet pp's for well over a year now whereas before was using drf for close to 30 years.. have picked some decent ones along the way this past year in spite of current cold streak.. truth of the matter is on scale there are frequent (understatement)
              huge differences between the two.. can't have that and trust the beyers more.. switching back to drf and only doing ny from here on out (except for special days at other tracks).. more expensive product so probably cut back my playing a bit


              saratoga


              R5 #6 la contessa (5-1)

              i know I said I wouldn't pick pletcher 1st time out 2yo's but a couple of differences here.. one is this is a turf race and he's known for dirt with these types.. two, is my costs a bunch for the pedigree angle (200k)...1st starter from a dam who only placed in her career from a 35k stallion


              R9 #3 madame barbarian (30-1)

              since being switched over to (yes not from) horrible trainer metiver she has put together 2 very competitive beyers.. her best beyer right up with the best in here. exits an open 25k clm and today gets into a clm 40k n2L which I consider a drop.. while cancel just an avg at best jock he's an upgrade from 7 lb bug reyes.. probably not but the value will be there
              Last edited by bleeker; 08-11-2017, 02:43 PM.
              _______________________________________________
              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

              Comment


              • Re: horse plays

                Ok bleeker good luck !! There was that big of difference ??

                Comment


                • Re: horse plays

                  Originally posted by Jim13 View Post
                  Ok bleeker good luck !! There was that big of difference ??

                  it's ridiculous jim.. if you look at the same card of races with both pp's you realize that you have to make a choice of who you believe.. a horse with full 10 pp line you'll easily see 3-5 races with a 5-7 length difference and almost all will be 1-2 lengths off.. just can't have that and I trust the beyers more.. they put more into making their figures than brisnet
                  _______________________________________________
                  ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                  Comment


                  • Re: horse plays

                    added play
                    _______________________________________________
                    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                    Comment


                    • Re: horse plays

                      Originally posted by bleeker View Post
                      I have been using brisnet pp's for well over a year now whereas before was using drf for close to 30 years.. have picked some decent ones along the way this past year in spite of current cold streak.. truth of the matter is on scale there are frequent (understatement)
                      huge differences between the two.. can't have that and trust the beyers more.. switching back to drf and only doing ny from here on out (except for special days at other tracks).. more expensive product so probably cut back my playing a bit


                      saratoga


                      R5 #6 la contessa (5-1)

                      i know I said I wouldn't pick pletcher 1st time out 2yo's but a couple of differences here.. one is this is a turf race and he's known for dirt with these types.. two, is my costs a bunch for the pedigree angle (200k)...1st starter from a dam who only placed in her career from a 35k stallion


                      R9 #3 madame barbarian (30-1)

                      since being switched over to (yes not from) horrible trainer metiver she has put together 2 very competitive beyers.. her best beyer right up with the best in here. exits an open 25k clm and today gets into a clm 40k n2L which I consider a drop.. while cancel just an avg at best jock he's an upgrade from 7 lb bug reyes.. probably not but the value will be there
                      R10
                      _______________________________________________
                      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                      Comment


                      • Re: horse plays

                        saratoga


                        R2 #1 oskar blues (12-1)


                        assuming the mighty pletcher will go off odds on and if he does he wins with close to 90% with these types (msw 2yo fts).. take a shot with the expensive speightstown just to the inside of him who's one of the better first out sires.. dam was unplaced and first foal to race so 350k nice piece of change for this guy.. admittedly being out of an ap Indy dam might have something to do with that price even though as I said no production so far

                        R7 #4 lone sailor (12-1)

                        another 2yo msw where I'll try to beat a pletcher firster.. my usual cost relative to pedigree (only 120k but still expensive relatively speaking)..sprint oriented pedigree and capable first out trainer

                        R9 #4 spartiatis

                        been fairly successful on the dirt at or around this level past couple of years.. think the G1
                        a g vanderbilt (37-1) was just a little excersize to have him ready for this spot


                        R6 #2 machtree (6-1) half unit

                        first time starter talent goes 5 deep in this field imo (some might argue 1 or 2 more)
                        .. just to have a little action this one falls a bit into line with my angle.. 100k stud kitten's joy
                        out of a stakes placed mare.. 2 winners from 2 starters but neither a stakes winner.. 450k
                        a healthy price but not outrageously expensive for this info..also has speed influence forestry on the bottom which is a good thing.. the other firsters I was referring to are 4 8 9 10


                        R11 #8 dab (7-2)

                        have a hunch trainer terranova might regret losing this horse for 25k last race as was claimed by assmussen.. 130k 2yo purchase with only 6 career starts ran a real nice one in his turf debut at belmont 3 back and then was handicapped with extreme posts his last two starts.. fits well here in statebred mcl 40k @ 5.5f..guessing he'll be around 8/5

                        Last edited by bleeker; 08-12-2017, 05:03 PM.
                        _______________________________________________
                        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                        Comment


                        • Re: horse plays

                          added play
                          _______________________________________________
                          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                          Comment


                          • Re: horse plays

                            added play
                            _______________________________________________
                            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                            Comment


                            • Re: horse plays

                              added R6
                              _______________________________________________
                              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                              Comment


                              • Re: horse plays

                                added R11
                                _______________________________________________
                                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                                Comment

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