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  • Re: horse plays

    added a write-up for R1
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

    Comment


    • Re: horse plays

      finished
      _______________________________________________
      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

      Comment


      • Re: horse plays

        did woodbine 7 8
        _______________________________________________
        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

        Comment


        • Re: horse plays

          added santa anita 8
          _______________________________________________
          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

          Comment


          • Re: horse plays

            laurel..
            guess cause they didn't run on easter


            R1 #4 free to trump (9-2)

            R3 #1 top line growth (5-1)
            R3 #6 benandjoe (7-2)

            hate playing 2 especially at relatively low odds but can't decide.. pletcher #2 (8-5)will take a lot of money which helps our cause (at least if he loses lol)

            R5 #3 hail the queen (9-5)

            3yo clm 12.5..claimed this horse 4 back for $16k..close 2nd's stepping up first to 25k and then to 32k..oc/alw n1x too much for her last out but her effort inthat race transfered to this field works well..far as the drop she picked up 2nd money twice so with today's tag not a ridiculous loss situation.. back in 8 days so probably in good shape


            R7 #6 little united (4-1)

            this race clm 8000 n1y (6 months).. wins in claimers vs lower tags don't count so she has two of those vs 5k same condition.. bad efforts were from bad posts.. seems the addition of blinkers combined with reasonable placement going back about 7 starts has worked for this horse.. jock/trainer 9/32 last 60 days


            R8 #7 holiday magician (12-1)

            think the stretch and drop may set her up nice for this.. always like even back of the pack lines in these situations.. little route experience here but sprint form was excellent last fall and it's a top and bottom route pedigree


            R9 #7 forbidden frolic (9-2)

            linda rice ships in from aqueduct with this fts.. slow works which is her modus operandi.. nice pedigree.. cost 90k by 15k sire out of a highly productive dam.. 10 starters 8 winners and 3 of those stakes winners.. 3 turf winners amongst those (5.5f turf today).. dam by premiership who's an extreme sprint influence
            _______________________________________________
            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

            Comment


            • Re: horse plays

              keeneland


              R2 #2 dynabee (3-1)
              R3 #11 anna's fast (2-1)
              R4 #5 strikingly lovely (12-1)

              R3 going to be odds on so I'd do a double R2-3..a pick 3 for 25% of the double .. and a straight bet on R4



              R5 #6 jerry's pridenjoy (3-1)

              R6 #4 keepme in the game (10-1)

              $435k first time starter for shug..of the two siblings to run(my research) one won first out and other came 2nd in a msw turf route* at saratoga for 2yo (also debut)..that one won about $1.5M and was a multiple graded stakes winner..long string of works at payson park going back to mid februrary


              R7 #4 methodical (15-1)

              broke from the 12 post in debut and exits a race that was as fast as any who are running the derby ..only difference it was at 7 furlongs..ran the kind of line back of the pack that I like for a stretchout..trainer below the radar guy who is very profitable in many applicable categories..top jockey saez rides..would love to get ml as it makes no sense..linesmaker thinks public is brain dead and can't dig a little


              R8 #5 fashion decree (5-1)

              usually don't like playing horses who broke their maiden first out to repeat next out..doing it here because this one is very well bred and suspect field


              R6 and 8 is same owner..bought and bred respectively
              Last edited by bleeker; 04-24-2019, 11:09 AM.
              _______________________________________________
              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

              Comment


              • Re: horse plays

                Tampa
                Wednesday, April 24th

                1st – Ashlie Nicole (5) was not asked till mid-stretch then responded well and was eased late with a +10, +7 in last. Gallardo jumps to the one with the better singles. Looks like one or the other. Still it may be very competitive.

                Pick 3 - 4,5/1,2,5,6/8

                2nd – Sum Mo Cash (3) was above par in last and comes Rightback without moving up in class. That would be too easy. Ward is 1-14 with RBs and 14% Win with No Changes in L2T.

                1,2,5,6/3/All (20 bets)

                3rd – Urban Buckeye (8) goes for Hemingway who is 42% Win and 77% ITM when the favorite. Ian doubles his ordinary strike rate with No Change types. The 3YO dueled from midway in the far turn to the wire and just weakened late with a +4,+3 last time out.

                Win 8

                DD 8/2

                4th – Why not Dale Bennett, who is 6-16 Win recently and 29% Win off the claim? Last was par. If the rest have any good cards, they ain’t showing them.

                Win 2

                5th – Whatever was bothering Divine Ambition (1) he’s over it, going +12 in last. Bowersock has two 50% ITM angles here

                Win 1

                6th – KOC will be 3-5 and should be. Yanez is 30% Win and 70% ITM with Plain Shortenups (and 3 of 4 ITM this season).

                Conditional $50 Exacta 1/6 for $15

                $25 Saver Trifecta 1/4/6

                Weighted DDs 1,4,6/3,6

                7th – Pick 3 – 3/1,3,4,6/3,4,8,9 (16 bets)

                Early Pic 4 (2-5) .... 2, 4, 6 WT 5, 8 WT 2, 7, 9 WT 1, 5 ... $.50 ... $18.00

                Late Pic 4 (6-9) .... 1, 4, 6 WT 3, 6, 8 WT 1, 8, 9 WT 4 ** ... $.50 ... $13.50

                Comment


                • Re: horse plays

                  Originally posted by Jim13 View Post
                  Tampa
                  Wednesday, April 24th

                  1st – Ashlie Nicole (5) was not asked till mid-stretch then responded well and was eased late with a +10, +7 in last. Gallardo jumps to the one with the better singles. Looks like one or the other. Still it may be very competitive.

                  Pick 3 - 4,5/1,2,5,6/8

                  2nd – Sum Mo Cash (3) was above par in last and comes Rightback without moving up in class. That would be too easy. Ward is 1-14 with RBs and 14% Win with No Changes in L2T.

                  1,2,5,6/3/All (20 bets)

                  3rd – Urban Buckeye (8) goes for Hemingway who is 42% Win and 77% ITM when the favorite. Ian doubles his ordinary strike rate with No Change types. The 3YO dueled from midway in the far turn to the wire and just weakened late with a +4,+3 last time out.

                  Win 8

                  DD 8/2

                  4th – Why not Dale Bennett, who is 6-16 Win recently and 29% Win off the claim? Last was par. If the rest have any good cards, they ain’t showing them.

                  Win 2

                  5th – Whatever was bothering Divine Ambition (1) he’s over it, going +12 in last. Bowersock has two 50% ITM angles here

                  Win 1

                  6th – KOC will be 3-5 and should be. Yanez is 30% Win and 70% ITM with Plain Shortenups (and 3 of 4 ITM this season).

                  Conditional $50 Exacta 1/6 for $15

                  $25 Saver Trifecta 1/4/6

                  Weighted DDs 1,4,6/3,6

                  7th – Pick 3 – 3/1,3,4,6/3,4,8,9 (16 bets)

                  Early Pic 4 (2-5) .... 2, 4, 6 WT 5, 8 WT 2, 7, 9 WT 1, 5 ... $.50 ... $18.00

                  Late Pic 4 (6-9) .... 1, 4, 6 WT 3, 6, 8 WT 1, 8, 9 WT 4 ** ... $.50 ... $13.50
                  thanks jim...

                  also finished keeneland 3 posts above
                  Last edited by bleeker; 04-24-2019, 11:04 AM.
                  _______________________________________________
                  ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                  Comment


                  • Re: horse plays

                    Jim on the second pick 3 do you mean 1256/8/all instead of the 3
                    2011 Winner of TIS college football contest
                    2012 - 2013
                    NBA 33-18-1
                    MLB 16-12
                    NFL 27-13-1
                    CFB 12-11
                    CBB 9-2
                    MLB 2013 2-0
                    NHL 1-0

                    2013
                    GOY 1-0 Mississippi +9.5 Over LSU 27-24

                    2018
                    NFL 0-1

                    Comment


                    • Re: horse plays

                      Yes sorry. Always good to double check. Dang work got in the way lol. Hope you had the pick 4 about a week ago. Paid close to 1500. It's mean an ok meet. Spring meet is almost over. Then starts up again I believe in end of June. Personally can't wait for Saratoga !!!

                      Comment


                      • Re: horse plays

                        Thanks jim and beeker for the plays i wish i had the pick 4 but brt your bb to win and some dd and a few pick 3
                        2011 Winner of TIS college football contest
                        2012 - 2013
                        NBA 33-18-1
                        MLB 16-12
                        NFL 27-13-1
                        CFB 12-11
                        CBB 9-2
                        MLB 2013 2-0
                        NHL 1-0

                        2013
                        GOY 1-0 Mississippi +9.5 Over LSU 27-24

                        2018
                        NFL 0-1

                        Comment


                        • Re: horse plays

                          indiana


                          R5 #9 hopped up (10-1)
                          R7 #8 double take (4-1)


                          evangeline downs


                          R5 #6 striking star (5-1)
                          R9 #8 wish for interest (8-1)


                          penn national

                          R8 #6 unlimited upside (6-1)

                          gotta love a horse with this name making his 2nd career start dropping from a mdn 25k to a mdn $5k today lol...kidding aside do like him dropping and stretching out
                          Last edited by bleeker; 04-24-2019, 06:38 PM.
                          _______________________________________________
                          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                          Comment


                          • Re: horse plays

                            added evangeline downs post above
                            _______________________________________________
                            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                            Comment


                            • Re: horse plays

                              added penn national 8..lousy day
                              _______________________________________________
                              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                              Comment


                              • Re: horse plays

                                laurel

                                R1 #3 muchacho (15-1)
                                R3 #10 friendly fire (9-2)
                                R4 #8 salutelute (7-2)
                                R6 #8 stoney bennett (5-1)
                                R7 #5 pink pearl (15-1)
                                R8 #7 gran city (5-1)


                                gulfstream

                                R1 #1 go girl gone (20-1)
                                R3 #1 gladita (6-1)
                                R5 10 mi karlita (10-1) ml ??
                                _______________________________________________
                                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                                Comment

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