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Thread: horse plays

  1. #2251

    Re: horse plays

    saratoga post below
    Last edited by bleeker; 08-06-2018 at 11:52 AM.
    ________________________________________________

    starting 7/25 will just be posting maiden and stakes races at saratoga and del mar..like these categories best and want to stay more focused on things..only if I like them of course.. not auto plays

     
     
  2. #2252

    Re: horse plays

    not in order


    saratoga


    R4 #9 my victoria rose (10-1)

    R6 #3 just right (8-1)

    did nothing first out.. adds blinkers working fast and as with most pletcher's bred better than most or all in here



    R1 #8 pirate's treasure (9-2)

    love this horse.. won going sprint to route and did it on the front end of a fast pace two back.. stretching out today off a very similar running line and dropping a notch (the other stretch also off a drop). regular long works since his last race in june including two 7 furlong works two and three back.. just remember
    from 20 - 30 years ago and till he gave it up his hall of fame father used to do that with horses he was real serious about.. jimmy jerkens trains today and of course pops was allen


    R7 #2 smart together (12-1)

    lightly raced augustin stable (long time operation) filly who just missed (3rd neck) vs handicap company in newbury england.. that race was 14 months ago and 3rd in her career two starts back.. well bred and was caught behind a very slow pace last out about 3 weeks ago.. could see an improved effort today and irad ortiz rides


    R9 #11 construct (5-1)
    Last edited by bleeker; 08-06-2018 at 03:43 PM.
    ________________________________________________

    starting 7/25 will just be posting maiden and stakes races at saratoga and del mar..like these categories best and want to stay more focused on things..only if I like them of course.. not auto plays

     
     
  3. #2253

    Re: horse plays

    added last at saratoga
    ________________________________________________

    starting 7/25 will just be posting maiden and stakes races at saratoga and del mar..like these categories best and want to stay more focused on things..only if I like them of course.. not auto plays

     
     
  4. #2254

    Re: horse plays

    parx

    R7 #9 space captain (4-1)

    claimed 3 back at GP for 35k..probably grabbed so could run vs nybs for big purse money.. has had to deal with bad post, extremely fast paces and racing against better company.. by the pars state bred mdn clm 40k in ny is significantly better than mdn clm 20k at parx. .with what he's shown vs better this much easier assignment.. trainer has tremendous numbers 12/33 down 2+ classes and 18/68 3rd off the layoff.. odds probably lower unfortunately

    R10 #4 jw goingtothebank (12-1)

    finally drops to where he can win mcl 10k.. his last race at mcl 20k would make him tough in here.. don't get the ml ??
    ________________________________________________

    starting 7/25 will just be posting maiden and stakes races at saratoga and del mar..like these categories best and want to stay more focused on things..only if I like them of course.. not auto plays

     
     
  5. #2255

    Re: horse plays

    del mar

    R3 triple 14/147/147 all favorites

    R4 #10 pray for cords (6-1)

    gets off the rail where all his efforts have been bad in his short 6 race career..outside post is the place to be in del mar sprints and his 2 and 3 back efforts make him very tough in here..jock pedroza having a terrible meet here and hopefully that helps the price


    R6 #3 sassy kitty (20-1)

    R8 #8 jonas (8-1) triple 8's
    ________________________________________________

    starting 7/25 will just be posting maiden and stakes races at saratoga and del mar..like these categories best and want to stay more focused on things..only if I like them of course.. not auto plays

     
     
  6. #2256

    Re: horse plays

    saratoga

    R1 #3 caralicious (8-1)
    R2 #1 free kitty (9-2)
    R3 #6 surface strike (9-2)
    ________________________________________________

    starting 7/25 will just be posting maiden and stakes races at saratoga and del mar..like these categories best and want to stay more focused on things..only if I like them of course.. not auto plays

     
     
  7. #2257

    Re: horse plays

    del mar


    R3 #1 charming slew (6-1)
    R6 #8 asaltante (4-1)
    R8 #6 palladium (5-2)
    ________________________________________________

    starting 7/25 will just be posting maiden and stakes races at saratoga and del mar..like these categories best and want to stay more focused on things..only if I like them of course.. not auto plays

     
     
  8. #2258

    Re: horse plays

    saratoga

    R2 #2 red curls (12-1)

    this filly has run better figures (brisnet ) than the favorites running against msw and finishing 6 lengths back in both efforts.. judging by the comment looks like a rough trip at tampa bay in her last race..the purse for mcl 40's up here is twice that of a msw at tampa .. gets a better jock and maybe vs mdn claimers can wake up at a bit of a price



    R5 #10 pakhet (4-1)


    R10 #2 southern brigade (8-1)

    don't think i've ever seen 3 first time starters by the same sire break from consecutive posts (in this case 2-4) they're all by big brown.. like that castellano takes the mount for rr who can win with a newbie... big brown above avg turf and first foal out a winning giant's causeway (turf class) mare.. horse cost $37k and this could pay for him here plus an extra $8k if they win this
    Last edited by bleeker; 08-10-2018 at 02:33 PM.
    ________________________________________________

    starting 7/25 will just be posting maiden and stakes races at saratoga and del mar..like these categories best and want to stay more focused on things..only if I like them of course.. not auto plays

     
     
  9. #2259

    Re: horse plays

    added a play
    ________________________________________________

    starting 7/25 will just be posting maiden and stakes races at saratoga and del mar..like these categories best and want to stay more focused on things..only if I like them of course.. not auto plays

     
     
  10. #2260

    Re: horse plays

    finished saratoga
    ________________________________________________

    starting 7/25 will just be posting maiden and stakes races at saratoga and del mar..like these categories best and want to stay more focused on things..only if I like them of course.. not auto plays

     
     
  11. #2261

    Re: horse plays

    del mar


    R5 #6 marrazano (20-1)

    this would definitely fall into my expensive for the pedigree category.. $17.5 stud fee, dam winner, 2 winners from as many startersand 1 of them won on turf and is also a stakes winner (multiple listed).. but these were won at northland park where these types of races aren't even as good as allowance races at big tracks (maybe as good) ... three 5 furlong works and a 6 furlong work comprise his last 4 works.. she's by new sire verrazano out of a speightstown mare so at least on the bottom turf should be ok.. trying a turf route here for her debut


    R8 #1 staythirstymyamigo (5-2)

    think debuting and showing speed at mcl 80k was just a prep for this spot.. only cost $10kand trainer is 4/11 with double + drop downs..jockey 2/5 with trainer last 60 days.. short price but tough in here

    Last edited by bleeker; 08-10-2018 at 05:02 PM.
    ________________________________________________

    starting 7/25 will just be posting maiden and stakes races at saratoga and del mar..like these categories best and want to stay more focused on things..only if I like them of course.. not auto plays

     
     
  12. #2262

    Re: horse plays

    finished del mar
    ________________________________________________

    starting 7/25 will just be posting maiden and stakes races at saratoga and del mar..like these categories best and want to stay more focused on things..only if I like them of course.. not auto plays

     
     
  13. #2263

    Re: horse plays

    saratoga

    R2 #8 exchequer (3-1)



    R6 #2 network effect (5-1)

    $2500 (twenty five hundred) stallion fee and dam a winner who produced 1 minor winner $95k a lot of money for this one .. dam sire put it back is a speed influence..chad brown trains one of his less expensive beginners and maybe that'll help the price a bit


    R11 #1 dancindwthdaffodls (5-1)

    2 turns on grass at this level for the first time.. what she's managed vs msw should make her tough here


    #8 protect the king (30-1) half unit


    maybe the even sprints and multiple lengthy works could have her ready for a surprise here on the stretch out.. come on leo (o'brien) win one already lol


    del mar

    R6 #9 be a shero (10-1)

    15 k stud..
    stakes placed dam**..
    3 winners from as many starters but all were nothing special..

    $385k.. big bucks

    ** meaningless 3rd in a listed stakes at calder in her 2nd start as a 2yo and she was still a maiden..
    a horse could miss by a nose in a grade 3 as an older horse and it would say the same thing "stakes placed" big difference.. in this case it's a positive because it's another knock against the dam.. horse must be a specimen to cost that with that pedigree.. speed oriented bloodlines
    Last edited by bleeker; 08-11-2018 at 05:29 PM.
    ________________________________________________

    starting 7/25 will just be posting maiden and stakes races at saratoga and del mar..like these categories best and want to stay more focused on things..only if I like them of course.. not auto plays

     
     
  14. #2264

    Re: horse plays

    Here are Goldberg's thoughts on each Arlington Million entrant. Post position in parenthesis:

    (2)Spring Quality (8-1) I think the 2 is going to be very well-placed. He won't be too far back. Graham Motion is a good trainer.

    (5)Century Dream (12-1) He's a year old, and William Buick has come over here to ride. He's not bad here either. That might be a price horse. He has a good running style for his race.

    (3)Money Multiplier (6-1) He's a good horse. Going from off the pace, but doesn't win very often. His best races were in Monmouth. He had a good race, ran second in a Grade 1 race at Saratoga last year. This year he ran seventh in a race at Gulfstream, ran third in Ontario and two good races in Monmouth. I think he's moving up here.

    (10)Robert Bruce (9-2) An interesting horse everyone is talking about. He ran sixth in the Manhattan which was a great one at a one-and-a-quarter. Spring Quality won the race, and Spring Quality has a good post edge here. But this horse was coming, got bumped. He's an interesting horse to me.

    (11)Oscar Performance (3-1) I don't like the post. He has to be on a lead or up close. He's got a good rider on him in Jose Ortiz, but I hate that post in a race like this.

    (3)Almanaar (6-1) On paper, he looks like a horse who's taking on horses with better experiences than he. He's had one race this year, and he won it, but it wasn't a stakes race. But (jockey) Joel Rosario is on him, and they wouldn't send Rosario out there to ride a horse he doesn't believe in.

    (9)Deauville (6-1) Aidan O'Brien brought him over from Ireland. I like Deauville but he was a beaten as a favorite at this race last year. He was in a position to win, had the rail but didn't win. But that was a year ago. Since then, he hasn't won a race.

    (6)Catcho En Die (20-1) No thoughts on him.

    (9)Circus Couture (30-1) No thoughts on him.

    (7)Twenty Four Seven (30-1) No thoughts on him.

    EXOTICS

    EXACTA BOX Spring Quality, Century Dream, Money Multiplier, Robert Bruce

    "Box them all, because I think all four of those horses could actually win it. There are so many possibilities."

    BONUS PICK: The Secretariat Stakes, a Grade 1 race at Arlington at 5:48 p.m. ET.

    "There's a horse who's 20/1 on the morning line named Bandua, trained by Dermot Weld. He was going to run in the Belmont, but they decided not to run the horse and keep him on the grass. He's not bad, had two wins in Ireland, and has a good chance to hit the board here.

    "I also like Analyze That (2-1), Chad Brown's horse, and Hunting Horn (7-2), though his post (13) is going to hurt him."

     
     
  15. #2265

    Re: horse plays

    Here is Demling's writeup:

    Once again, the Grade 1 Arlington Million XXXVI Stakes is a solid field and with five horses between 3-1 and 6-1 it sets up to be a terrific betting race on Saturday at Arlington Park in Arlington Heights, Ill.

    The field of 11 will go 1 1/4 miles in the feature race of the day with Oscar Performance as the morning-line favorite.

    The race is a Breeders' Cup Challenge Series "Win and You're In" for the Longines Turf.

    Here's a complete leaderboard, with post position in parenthesis:

    (11) 1. Oscar Performance (3-1) - The Brian Lynch trainee is the deserving favorite and this is his race to lose; I don't see him losing unless the far outside post hinders him in some way. Look for him to be near or on the lead the entire way and be too tough in the end.

    (10) 2. Robert Bruce (9-2) - I'm saying he will be the best of the three Chad Brown horses and the price should be right. After winning in his American debut two races back, Robert Bruce finished sixth in a tough Manhattan Stakes - but was beaten only a length. He has a real shot here.

    (9) 3. Deauville (6-1) - The third time a charm? The Aidan O'Brein trainee has been third in the Arlington Million each of the post two years and looks like he's still in good form here. I like the 6-1 price and will bet him if it stays there or goes any higher.

    (8) 4. Money Multiplier (6-1) - I think Chad Brown could run this horse in a parking lot and he'd show up near the top of the board; has run in a number of huge spots and always seems to perform well. He'll have a shot to hit the board.

    (3) 5. Almanaar (6-1) - The third member of the Chad Brown group will be trying to close in the end; he's a bit of an unknown. Was in great form last year and then missed a lot of time because of an injury. Can he win against this tough field in second back after being on the shelf?

    (5) 6. Century Dream (12-1) - If the turf course is soft, Century Dream moves up; he's won seven times in 15 starts but will be making his first start in the U.S. He's come off of two fourth-place finishes in big races at Ascot, but I can't see him winning in his first trip in the states.

    (2) 7. Spring Quality (8-1) - The 6-year-old has run only 11 times, including going from 11th to first in the Manhattan Stakes in his last outing. Things would have to go crazy on the front end for him to be able to get up in this one.

    (6) 8. Catcho En Die (20-1) - The Argentina-bred won last time out in the Stars and Stripes at Arlington, but just doesn't appear to be the same level as some of these others in the Grade I effort.

    (1) 9. Circus Couture (30-1) - Has won nine times in 30 starts overseas and has hit the board in all but five starts; but it's his first race in the U.S. and I just can't see him doing much this time around.

    (7) 10. Twenty Four Seven (30-1) - The gelding is trying to win one for the home team, but the former claimer looks way overmatched

    (4) 11. Divisidero (10-1) - Will scratch and run in the Fourstardave Handicap at Saratoga.

    EXOTICS PICKS

    $2 EXACTA 11 with 3,5,8,9,10 ($10)

    $1 EXACTA 8,9,10 with 8,9,10,11 ($12)

    $1 TRIFECTA 11 with 3,5,8,9,10 with 3,5,8,9,10 ($20)

    $0.10 SUPERFECTA 11 with 3,5,8,9,10 with 3,5,8,9,10 with ALL ($14)

    $0.10 SUPERFECTA 8,9,10 with 8,9,10,11 with 3,5,8,9,10,11 with ALL ($25.20)

     
     
  16. #2266

    Re: horse plays

    Was on vacation last week. These are from the sportline app I subscribe too, some good info.

     
     
  17. #2267

    Re: horse plays

    added R6
    ________________________________________________

    starting 7/25 will just be posting maiden and stakes races at saratoga and del mar..like these categories best and want to stay more focused on things..only if I like them of course.. not auto plays

     
     
  18. #2268

    Re: horse plays

    Quote Originally Posted by Jim13 View Post
    Was on vacation last week. These are from the sportline app I subscribe too, some good info.
    hey jim nice to have you back and thanks for the info..I like money multiplier the best but it's a tough field as usual .. I think he was a bit pace compromised in his two races after the sword dancer last year..too close to a fast pace in the turf classic and too far behind a very slow pace in the red smith.think he's got him right where he wants him now and john velazquez riding


    it's arlington park R11 arlington million for anybody else looking in and money multiplier is #8




    secretariat stakes R9

    #2 platinum warrior (10-1)

    trying to beat the chad-monster #9 analyze it.. like the fact that this one won a grade 3 two starts back at this distance at the curragh in ireland.. maybe the grade 1 last out at the same venue at 1 miles a bit much for him and graded stakes over there are definitely considered better than same level races over here.. being by the best stallion in the world galileo (although she was cheap at $224k...average is $586k) a good thing
    Last edited by bleeker; 08-11-2018 at 04:10 PM.
    ________________________________________________

    starting 7/25 will just be posting maiden and stakes races at saratoga and del mar..like these categories best and want to stay more focused on things..only if I like them of course.. not auto plays

     
     
  19. #2269

    Re: horse plays

    added another stakes race at arlington (post above)
    ________________________________________________

    starting 7/25 will just be posting maiden and stakes races at saratoga and del mar..like these categories best and want to stay more focused on things..only if I like them of course.. not auto plays

     
     
  20. #2270

    Re: horse plays

    added del mar R6 post 2263
    ________________________________________________

    starting 7/25 will just be posting maiden and stakes races at saratoga and del mar..like these categories best and want to stay more focused on things..only if I like them of course.. not auto plays

     
     
  21. #2271

    Re: horse plays

    Crazy to see a johnny v horse pay close to 80 bucks to win lol !! Have to love this game !!

     
     
  22. #2272

    Re: horse plays

    I have the 2 in the 10 th for show for a couple bucks !!

     
     
  23. #2273

    Re: horse plays

    For Arlington

     
     
  24. #2274

    Re: horse plays

    Sister little charlie is looking good !! Chad brown triple (lol)

     
     
  25. #2275

    Re: horse plays

    good to be johnny v, chad brown, and irad... they just win baby!! johnny v's bomber was up close to a lightning pace according to brisnet figures and won nicely (2 back).. nice even race at 1⅛ last out.. hard to make a case for but they must have felt they had a decent shot for 3rd or 4th which is a decent chunk of change considering the purse. .surprise, surprise, surprise as gomer pyle would say lol
    ________________________________________________

    starting 7/25 will just be posting maiden and stakes races at saratoga and del mar..like these categories best and want to stay more focused on things..only if I like them of course.. not auto plays

     
     

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