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Thread: horse plays

  1. #2076

    Re: horse plays

    finished
    ________________________________________________
    i am not looking for the most likely winner but horses I feel I have an edge with over a large sample of races..starting 4/10/18 no results will be posted by me in "horse plays" thread.. this is true for 99%+ of the thread prior to this date.. want to be consistent about that..late scratches or early ones that i miss sometimes will be marked but mostly will not..this is the way it has been for most of this thread

     
     
  2. #2077

    Re: horse plays

    Quote Originally Posted by bleeker View Post
    thistledown

    R1 #6 raging saint (6-1)


    indiana grand


    R2 #7 major bluff (15-1)
    R3 #5 regal wildcat (6-1)

    R4 #4 ruling empire (4-5)

    not a bet but if they have show wagering could see bridgejumpers here.. first time starter ridiculous mismatch on pedigree and connections alone..
    I doubt the billionaires at Qatar racing care that the msw purse is about 20k less here vs major tracks

    R6 #4 sureis (3-1)

    sure will be an underlay but looks much better to me

    have to say this was a very bad call.. way I described it he would win easy at 2-5 or less and there'd be a minus show pool.. there was no show betting.. finished 3rd at 4-5 which probably is a bad sign to begin with as morning line 4-5's are supposed to go off much lower.. winner was another first time starter ($27) and to me a real head scratcher
    Last edited by bleeker; 05-15-2018 at 04:08 PM.
    ________________________________________________
    i am not looking for the most likely winner but horses I feel I have an edge with over a large sample of races..starting 4/10/18 no results will be posted by me in "horse plays" thread.. this is true for 99%+ of the thread prior to this date.. want to be consistent about that..late scratches or early ones that i miss sometimes will be marked but mostly will not..this is the way it has been for most of this thread

     
     
  3. #2078

    Re: horse plays

    preakness

    sporting chance

    i'm a long time critic of d wayne lukas and feel since his glory days in the 80's and 90's he does very little with the good stock he gets to work with overall..realize he's had some good ones but not enough imo...according to brisnet stats he is 3/96 in graded stakes and not sure how far that goes back ..pretty awful

    that being said and factoring in the value I'll be getting going to take a shot with him in the preakness..like the fact he is a 575k yearling purchase by dual bc classic winner tiznow..after a solid 2nd in his debut at churchill breaks his maiden in his next race at saratoga..follows that up with a win in the g1 hopefull at 7f knocking heads all the way around on a very fair pace according to brisnet

    without commenting race to race on his 3yo year I feel he has been compromised by multiple factors..bad posts,off tracks and some less than favorable trips..understand he ran on the same day as the derby in the pat day mile and therefore comes back on the same short rest..I'm bucking the negatives (trainer,short rest) and hoping in a small field on what will hopefully be a fast track that he can return to his 2yo form..and what better name for a horse like this anyway
    Last edited by bleeker; 05-15-2018 at 10:06 PM.
    ________________________________________________
    i am not looking for the most likely winner but horses I feel I have an edge with over a large sample of races..starting 4/10/18 no results will be posted by me in "horse plays" thread.. this is true for 99%+ of the thread prior to this date.. want to be consistent about that..late scratches or early ones that i miss sometimes will be marked but mostly will not..this is the way it has been for most of this thread

     
     
  4. #2079

    Re: horse plays

    belmont

    R6 #5 scat back (30-1)

    that's it for today
    ________________________________________________
    i am not looking for the most likely winner but horses I feel I have an edge with over a large sample of races..starting 4/10/18 no results will be posted by me in "horse plays" thread.. this is true for 99%+ of the thread prior to this date.. want to be consistent about that..late scratches or early ones that i miss sometimes will be marked but mostly will not..this is the way it has been for most of this thread

     
     
  5. #2080

    Re: horse plays

    Good post for the preakness bleeker ! You always have some good info. How do you feel with sporting chance if it an off track, maybe some ran in the forecast??

     
     
  6. #2081

    Re: horse plays

    Quote Originally Posted by Jim13 View Post
    Good post for the preakness bleeker ! You always have some good info. How do you feel with sporting chance if it an off track, maybe some ran in the forecast??
    thanks jim...even though I used it as an excuse I don't think it's a huge big deal..would ideally like it to be on a fast surface but as you said it's looking unlikely..his 3 off track races

    1) won the g1 hopefull at saratoga on a good track

    2) his 3yo debut off a 5 month layoff in the southwest at oaklawn ..a decent 3rd with a troubled trip on a muddy track..fine with that


    3) his last race on derby day in the pat day mile..broke from the 11 post on obviously a sloppy track ..finished 4th of 14 and comments "checked at 5/8th and 8 wide "..fine with that effort


    by tiznow out of a candy ride mare
    and both of those are well above average off track sires

    wouldn't hold it as a big strike against if it's an off track
    Last edited by bleeker; 05-16-2018 at 06:54 PM.
    ________________________________________________
    i am not looking for the most likely winner but horses I feel I have an edge with over a large sample of races..starting 4/10/18 no results will be posted by me in "horse plays" thread.. this is true for 99%+ of the thread prior to this date.. want to be consistent about that..late scratches or early ones that i miss sometimes will be marked but mostly will not..this is the way it has been for most of this thread

     
     
  7. #2082

    Re: horse plays

    Quote Originally Posted by bleeker View Post
    thanks jim...even though I used it as an excuse I don't think it's a huge big deal..would ideally like it to be on a fast surface but as you said it's looking unlikely..his 3 off track races

    1) won the g1 hopefull at saratoga on a good track

    2) his 3yo debut off a 5 month layoff in the southwest at oaklawn ..a decent 3rd with a troubled trip on a muddy track..fine with that


    3) his last race on derby day in the pat day mile..broke from the 11 post on obviously a sloppy track ..finished 4th of 14 and comments "checked at 5/8th and 8 wide "..fine with that effort


    by tiznow out of a candy ride mare
    and both of those are well above average off track sires

    wouldn't hold it as a big strike against if it's an off track
    bottom line if I were to invest 100 on the race on a dry track i'd knock it down to 70 on a wet track..figuring justify will be around 2-5 and sporting chance around 40-1..

    I will use 100 as an example and if the track is off do about 70% of this..

    sc= sporting chance
    ju=justify
    gm =good magic

    50 win sc
    35 exacta ju/sc
    7 exacta gm/sc
    6 triple ju/gm/sc
    2 triple gm/ju/sc

    100 total

    as a frame of reference i would bet this amount if my average bet on a horse race were about 30-40
    Last edited by bleeker; 05-17-2018 at 07:22 AM.
    ________________________________________________
    i am not looking for the most likely winner but horses I feel I have an edge with over a large sample of races..starting 4/10/18 no results will be posted by me in "horse plays" thread.. this is true for 99%+ of the thread prior to this date.. want to be consistent about that..late scratches or early ones that i miss sometimes will be marked but mostly will not..this is the way it has been for most of this thread

     
     
  8. #2083

    Re: horse plays

    Thanks for the info bleeker !! All the talking i keep hearing sound like justify has won the race already lol !! Keep talking with he be able to do the distance at belmont

     
     
  9. #2084

    Re: horse plays

    Quote Originally Posted by Jim13 View Post
    Thanks for the info bleeker !! All the talking i keep hearing sound like justify has won the race already lol !! Keep talking with he be able to do the distance at belmont
    really is a shame though..he's a great horse and you'd like to see him get the chance to run these races on a fast track which looks like it's not happening..supposed to be about 3 inches of rain through saturday
    ________________________________________________
    i am not looking for the most likely winner but horses I feel I have an edge with over a large sample of races..starting 4/10/18 no results will be posted by me in "horse plays" thread.. this is true for 99%+ of the thread prior to this date.. want to be consistent about that..late scratches or early ones that i miss sometimes will be marked but mostly will not..this is the way it has been for most of this thread

     
     
  10. #2085

    Re: horse plays

    churchill ..5pm post

    R3 #4 grit and glory (4-1)
    R5 #1 tofino (7-2)
    R6 xbox 37
    R8 #3 purimeter (15-1)
    ________________________________________________
    i am not looking for the most likely winner but horses I feel I have an edge with over a large sample of races..starting 4/10/18 no results will be posted by me in "horse plays" thread.. this is true for 99%+ of the thread prior to this date.. want to be consistent about that..late scratches or early ones that i miss sometimes will be marked but mostly will not..this is the way it has been for most of this thread

     
     
  11. #2086

    Re: horse plays

    pimlico

    R1 #9 my diva (20-1)

    first time starter whose sire is above average off track and out of a stakes placed dam who broke her maiden first time out at santa anita.. solid works leading up to this

    probably not playing much today
    ________________________________________________
    i am not looking for the most likely winner but horses I feel I have an edge with over a large sample of races..starting 4/10/18 no results will be posted by me in "horse plays" thread.. this is true for 99%+ of the thread prior to this date.. want to be consistent about that..late scratches or early ones that i miss sometimes will be marked but mostly will not..this is the way it has been for most of this thread

     
     
  12. #2087

    Re: horse plays

    post 2082 preakness

    pimlico

    R10 #7 laki (15-1)
    ________________________________________________
    i am not looking for the most likely winner but horses I feel I have an edge with over a large sample of races..starting 4/10/18 no results will be posted by me in "horse plays" thread.. this is true for 99%+ of the thread prior to this date.. want to be consistent about that..late scratches or early ones that i miss sometimes will be marked but mostly will not..this is the way it has been for most of this thread

     
     

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