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Re: horse plays
added del mar R1... late sorry
added del mar R1... late sorry
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( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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Re: horse plays
added dmr R5_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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Re: horse plays
finished del mar_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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Re: horse plays
saratoga
R2 #7 timber ghost (6-1)
R3 #5 that's speightful (10-1) #9 rarities (6-1)
R5 #2 heroic activist (10-1) #4 alasaayil ( 8-1) half unitLast edited by bleeker; 08-19-2018, 12:47 PM._______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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Re: horse plays
added R5_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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Re: horse plays
del mar
50 cent pick 5.. $785K carryover probably be $4M
R1.. 1 3 4 5 6
R2..1 4
R3..1 3
R4.. 2 7
R5.. 3 6 9
$60_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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Re: horse plays
del mar
R8 del mar mile
#3 true valour (20-1)
3 races in 5 weeks over in Ireland including a G3 win in his last race there.. shipped to del mar 4 weeks later (last race) and that really wasn't a bad race at all considering the journey.. he'll offer value in here and could see him moving forward off that race. he's run better races off efforts like his last twice overseas_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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Re: horse plays
saratoga
R2 #2 zecha (5-1)
I think fast track this distance and level he's tough in here.. pletcher's (#10 stay good) is a half to a 700k + earner so can't be a good sign he's up for 25k
R9 #1 riendo (9-2)
similar to the R2 pick feel he'll be tough vs claimers
R4 #6 introduced (9-2)
2yo first time starter
$5k stud
dam winner
2 winners/3 starters/1 of those a turf winner
low dam production index meaning winners nothing special
$310k a bunch for these specs
jose ortiz only mount for this stable last 60 days a $10.40 winner_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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Re: horse plays
indiana grande
R6 #9 marquee prince (4-1)_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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Re: horse plays
will be looking at saratoga tomorrow through travers day (biggest day of the meet)saturday .. weather supposed to be good there next few days which always helps_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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Re: horse plays
del mar
R4 #4 shake n fries (4-1) 444
this is a way above average win early pedigree..street boss out of an unraced dixieland band mare (don't see many db (old) as broodmare sires) and interesting this only her 2nd foal to race..both sire and dam sire 17% first out which is very high and street boss is a sprint sire..up for 32k first out doesn't bother me with this pedigree
R8 #5 causeididitmyway (6-1)
trainer fantastic in maiden claiming races and feel the drop is what this horse needs_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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Re: horse plays
saratoga friday
R4 #5 seven jewels (8-1)
"off a beat slow, greenly" was the chart callers comment.. I think the resulting running line is a great set up race to stretch out off.. the winners figure in that race (2yof sb msw) was above the par for a 2yof sb stakes so that was a fast race she exited..she went off 3-1 in that race and the winner went on to repeat in her next start
some trainer stats.. brad cox
356/29%.. 46-90 days off
85/34%.. first race on grass
91/29%..first try route
big brown/too much bling mare... above avg turf but below avg class ..cost 10k and dam was a minor stakes winner at a small circuit track ..this to me about neutral info but other stuff like very much
#4 tiztinabella (12-1) half unit
gleaves has won with a big price debuter on turf according to the trainer stats and I believe (but not sure) it was at this meet.. sire and dam sire above avg turf influences
saratoga.. funny cide stakes nyb 2yo
R5 #5 bankit (2-1)
no great value here.. did run the best figure of this bunch.. main reason though is this is one of those extremely expensive relative to the pedigree specs horses
R9 fleet indian stakes 3yo nyb fillies 1⅛ dirt
#7 rachel's blue moon (8-1)
another chester broman nyb whose bred like from KY.. I still think this is valuable even this far down the road running as a 3yo..wide post on the turf probably cost her 3 back and comment 2 back "wedged early, 3 wide turn" surely wasn't the best trip... easy 2 length wire to wire win @ mile at belmont last out and even though on the front end alone the pace was about 6 lengths fast and comment was "in hand 2-3 wide, held well" .. think she's set up nice for initial try around 2 turns
monmouth 2yo msw
R4 #5 quality step (5-2)
do I think the value will be here for this one.. no.. homebred (kg stable, george hall same outfit) .
love the works, speed oriented pedigree.. servis has the ml favorite #2 uncle benny (2-1) whose also a debuter but with declaration of war the sire think more oriented to distance down the road.. #2 uncle benny also cost a bunch relative to pedigree and jt combo an unreal 34 starts/44% winners.. glad he's in there though as need someone else to be take money.. if he wins so be itLast edited by bleeker; 08-24-2018, 12:16 PM._______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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Re: horse plays
Here is Demling's writeup:
It's a stellar field of 11 - including a filly for the first time since 1979 - that will go to post on Saturday in the Grade 1, $1.25 million Travers Stakes at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, N.Y.
The Travers is billed as the Mid-Summer Derby.
And while Triple Crown winner Justify was retired and isn't racing, there's still a loaded field for the Travers, including Kentucky Derby runner-up and 2-year-old champion Good Magic - the morning-line favorite - along with Belmont runner-up Gronkowski and champion filly Wonder Gadot.
It's the 149th running of the Travers.
Here's my full leaderboard, with post positions in parentheses:
(5) —1. Vino Rosso (10-1) - Trainer Todd Pletcher was clear this was his target race and when you look at his past performances, Vino Rosso ran a really good fourth in the Belmont and his third in the Jim Dandy Stakes was better than it might seem. If you watch the replay, he ran past the two in front of him not long after they hit the wire, so the added distance will help. It's a tough spot, but I'm thinking Pletcher has him primed and ready.
(9) —2. Good Magic (2-1) - He's the best 3-year-old in training and was the 2-year-old champion last year, but I wonder if this distance is best for the Kentucky Derby runner-up. At the low odds - he'll likely go off at 7-5 or 8-5 - I'm going to take a shot with the longer shot.
(3) —3. Gronkowski (4-1) - In his first American missed the break to start the Belmont Stakes and still finished second to Justify. He'll need a better start and much the same throughout the race here but he has a big chance to grab this victory.
(4) —4. Bravazo (12-1) - Anytime I doubt Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas, then he proves me wrong. He won the 2013 Travers with Will Take Charge and this one is similar in the path he took and the style he uses. He'll get the distance and a good trip he should have a shot turning for home.
(2)—5. Wonder Gadot (5-1) - Her resume is such that trainer Mark Casse should take a shot against the boys with this talented filly. She's the first filly since 1979 to start in the Travers and also looking to become the first to win it since Lady Rotha in 1915. She's a good one but not here against these boys.
(11) —6. Catholic Boy (8-1) - Would have rather his connections keep him on the turf; looked very good in his last two starts on that surface. He's a contender for sure but I question the switch back in surfaces.
(10) —7. Tenfold (8-1) - If the odds go much higher then I will look at him for a saver bet, but just too many questions. He was erratic down the stretch in his victory in the Jim Dandy and won't be able to have any mistakes here.
(7) —8. King Zachary (15-1) - Threw in a clunker in the Indiana Derby; has been working well at Saratoga but would need the best race of his career.
(8) —9. Mendelsshon (12-1) - You can bet this will burn me. Was my pick in the Derby and bombed and just didn't look sharp in a third-place finish in the Dwyer Stakes. I'm all over him again when he tries the turf!
(6) —10. Meistermind (30-1) - Owners are the same as Triple Crown winner Justify; they must see something that I don't because I doubt he can be a factor in a race with this much class.
(1) —11. Trigger Warning (30-1) - Should be the longest price on the board and for good reason; just in too deep with this field.
$1 EXACTA 5 with ALL ($10)
$1 EXACTA 3,9 with 2,3,4,5,9,11 ($12)
$0.50 TRIFECTA 5 with 3,9 with ALL ($9)
$0.20 SUPERFECTA 5 with 3,9 with 2,3,4,9,11 with ALL ($12.80)
$0.10 SUPERFECTA 3,9 with 2,3,4,5,9,11 with 2,3,4,5,9,11 with 2,3,4,5,9,11 ($12)Comment
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Re: horse plays
great jim.. going to look at the card a little later.. weather supposed to be good tomorrow_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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Re: horse plays
added 3 more_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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