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Thread: horse plays

  1. #4451

    Re: horse plays

    through 8
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

     
     
  2. #4452

    Re: horse plays

    finished..best bets will be R6 7..put in amounts by 3pm
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

     
     
  3. #4453

    Re: horse plays

    designated best bets
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

     
     
  4. #4454

    Re: horse plays

    best bets

    wednesday


    R3 #1 sky kitten (12-1) 3WP

    the first time imo good post and placement (class) come together for this horse

    4th @ 14-1

    R4 # 5 zuzudini (20-1) 2W 4P

    6 career races and I can find excuses in 5 of those.. didn't run with blinkers on first 2 and not much running on the turf from inside posts last 2.. pace comprised on a sealed track start 3 and start 4 at this distance at aqueduct gives him a shot here.. this trainer a sleeper 3rd off the layoff and manny franco one of the best route riders on the circuit



    out @ 48-1



    thursday




    R6 #8 valletta (8-1) 5W
    R6 #4 spring to summer (8-1) 3W


    8...4th @ 5-1..lost by a length.. 3 wide both turns
    4...out @ 10-1




    R7 #2 starship bubba (15-1) 4W
    R7 #4 dangerous edge (8-1) 4W



    2...out @ 8-1.. went to his face at the start
    4.. 3rd @ 11-1



    risk 58 /return 59.70
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

     
     
  5. #4455

    Re: horse plays

    saratoga friday







    R1 #4 dash to the top (12-1)

    2yo maiden specials.. to me his specs (trainer, jockey) look as good as anyone in the race including the favorite.. love the name for a firster


    R2 #8 getoffmyback (2-1)

    looks much better to me.. interesting that the 1 time he raced here before it was vs $12.5k claimers and the horse that won the race ran a stakes quality figure


    R3 #4 empire lady (12-1)

    love the pedigree for a marathon and the races she has under her are nice lines to go much further (they don't look good hence the ml).. trainer fantastic off a layoff



    R4 #4 liza star (9-5)


    R5 #2 sandra's mine (9-2)


    perfect primer off the long layoff.. a line i like and out of a very fast race (pace, final).. turf sprints from last year consistently good


    #5 love me tomorrow (9-2) half unit

    concerned she could be on the lead by herself and cutting back a furlong


    2 horses



    R6 #5 cavaradossi (8-1)

    R7 #4 blanket of roses (9-2)

    hopefully 3 and 7 duke it out and he picks up the pieces.. somehow when I predict pace scenarios never works out that way lol


    R8 #9 jewel of arabia (9-5)



    R9 #3 fly so pretty (8-1)


    R10 #1 hurricane breeze (6-1)
    R10 #2 wild north (30-1)


    half each
    Last edited by bleeker; 07-31-2020 at 10:45 AM.
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

     
     
  6. #4456

    Re: horse plays

    finished
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

     
     
  7. #4457

    Re: horse plays

    saratoga

    R1 #3 reinvestment risk (3-1) 67

    this is the type of 2yo msw race you get on the undercard of a big day.. the 2 who've run ran well in their debut and you won't find a better bunch of first time starters.. probably at least 3 eventual stakes winners in here.. have to side with chad here as best represents my expensive relative to the specs angle along with a trainer who has them wound up first out.. have to think the owners, his main clients, would love to be in the winners circle today.. they usually name their horses with financial themes


    R2 #1 fog of war (2-1)

    has the 2 (3-1) also but like this 1 better.. other would be my 2nd choice


    R3 #1 allied invasion (5-1) 69

    first time starter by new sire "normandy invasion " so gotta love the name.. I know it's so easy to go clement/joel right now but what appeals to me besides is the placement.. they're choosing statebred 40k maidens which is where a horse with a modest pedigree like this belongs ..clement is profitable in this category over a very large sample at avg win % which means he hits a lot of decent prices.. probably not the case here though



    R4 #6 uncle moonlight (10-1)

    another way above avg field of maidens but this time it's 3 year olds.. two favorites (3,5) have run multiple big races (to be fair lightly race and good figures on both) but yet to win.. I like looking for a big pedigree who hasn't revealed their hand yet.. mine huge pedigree and caught a muddy track at belmont in his debut.. bumped at the start and winner of race came back to repeat.. did some running along the way..these are the types I look for in these races and realize I will miss most of the time but get value when I hit.. trainer solid and below the radar.. breeder/owner have been involved in this game at a high level for decades



    R5 #4 vexatious (5-1)

    take a shot to upset midnight bisou (2-5)..biggest like of mine is ran a figure last out that is faster than the favorite has ever run.. raced here only one other time in a restricticted stakes and missed by a neck.. obviously a lot lower in class is an understatement but the figures for that race, (pace, final) were grade 1 level and she was up close.. same true of the pace last race and also up close.. I respect this trainer and don't think he'd just throw her in here if she didn't come out of her last race ok



    R6 #7 everfast (2-1)


    R7 #1 flight to paradise (12-1)

    first time starter from my friend trombetta who I've hit 2/2 with including $71 bomb.. nice pedigree but not up to the biggies in here (same circumstances as big price).. also going from the 1 post like the other two.. easy decision irregardless of result


    R7 #6 shawdyshawdyshawdy (8-1)


    homebred first time starter with a nice pedigree but again not up to the other mega ones in here.. trainer has excellent numbers in these types of races.. think he was a chad brown assistant who gets some of the lesser ones from his big client(s)


    2 horses R7



    R8 #6 montauk summer (10-1) 3WP

    ran type of line in a middle distance race I like for stretching out to a marathon.. was also behind a slow pace and very wide both turns.. not concerned joel hops off as he's riding for the trainer of the favorite in the whitney.. this horse also cost a decent amount for the pedigree.. red hot clement the trainer



    R9 #3 code of honor (5-2) whitney

    this is a horse for me who throughout his career has had excuses for bad races..posts,pace compromised multiple times and last race closed on the outside on met mile day which was not the thing to do that say..can run big numbers,3rd off the layoff and won the travers here last year..the time is now for a big effort




    R10 #8 three technique (6-1)

    i'm thinking a pace duel may develop here and mine would definitely be a beneficiary.. off what he's done I think today's 7f is perfect




    [COLOR=#000000]R11 #4 dot matrix (9-2) bowling green4WP[/COLOR]





    R12 #4 introduced (10-1)

    consistent as they come turf sprinting.. trainer has terrific numbers and still an under the radar guy
    Last edited by bleeker; 08-01-2020 at 06:40 PM.
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

     
     
  8. #4458
    Senior Member

    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    Location
    The Woodlands, TX
    Posts
    4,994

    Re: horse plays


     
     
  9. #4459

    Re: horse plays

    will have 6-8 (4:02) up by 3pm..possibly a few beyond that but finishing the card will probably be a post beyond that
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

     
     
  10. #4460

    Re: horse plays

    Thanks bleeker
    2011 Winner of TIS college football contest
    2012 - 2013
    NBA 33-18-1
    MLB 16-12
    NFL 27-13-1
    CFB 12-11
    CBB 9-2
    MLB 2013 2-0
    NHL 1-0

    2013
    GOY 1-0 Mississippi +9.5 Over LSU 27-24

    2018
    NFL 0-1

     
     
  11. #4461

    Re: horse plays

    Quote Originally Posted by Chamblin View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by FRAOLI4444 View Post
    Thanks bleeker


    np guys.. put up through 9 now.. next post will be the remainder
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

     
     
  12. #4462

    Re: horse plays

    Winner with the 4 thanks bleeker
    Last edited by bleeker; 08-01-2020 at 04:23 PM.
    2011 Winner of TIS college football contest
    2012 - 2013
    NBA 33-18-1
    MLB 16-12
    NFL 27-13-1
    CFB 12-11
    CBB 9-2
    MLB 2013 2-0
    NHL 1-0

    2013
    GOY 1-0 Mississippi +9.5 Over LSU 27-24

    2018
    NFL 0-1

     
     
  13. #4463

    Re: horse plays

    Quote Originally Posted by FRAOLI4444 View Post
    Winner with the 4 thanks bleeker
    glad you had it fraoli.. have mod priveledges in here and mistakenly tried to edit the other post



    finished the card
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

     
     
  14. #4464

    Re: horse plays

    added a best bet (these are tracked)
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

     
     
  15. #4465

    Re: horse plays

    3 races in a row nice job thanks
    2011 Winner of TIS college football contest
    2012 - 2013
    NBA 33-18-1
    MLB 16-12
    NFL 27-13-1
    CFB 12-11
    CBB 9-2
    MLB 2013 2-0
    NHL 1-0

    2013
    GOY 1-0 Mississippi +9.5 Over LSU 27-24

    2018
    NFL 0-1

     
     
  16. #4466

    Re: horse plays

    added R11 as best bet..this will be my last of those..want to de-emphasize best bets
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

     
     
  17. #4467

    Re: horse plays

    Quote Originally Posted by FRAOLI4444 View Post
    3 races in a row nice job thanks
    no problem fraoli
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

     
     
  18. #4468

    Re: horse plays

    saratoga

    R1 #4 uyuni (4-1)
    R2 #7 walkoff (7-5)
    R3 #2 shore magic (6-1)
    R4 #7 kilmarnock (5-2)
    R5 #5 war film (9-2)


    R6 #1 needacarcalllouie (15-1)

    I said in R1 yesterday (chad's monster) there may not be a maiden race as strong as this one.. this may rival it and considering the depth may be better (fillies today, colts yesterday) chad's got another ultra expensive one in here with above avg win early pedigree in #4 mo dean (4-1)..after yesterday doubt she'll be that.. even though mine cost a little more than 1/4 of his, relative she's very expensive..believe sire is a freshman.. trainer above average with firsters


    side note.. think if chad's is going off 5-2 or higher not a good sign



    R7 #6 discretionary marq (8-1)

    R8 #7 moonachie (8-1)

    many excuses last two including post position, track condition and running vs open allowance at oaklawn (statebreds today).. comes back to where he broke his maiden first out by 10 lengths geared down.. jock who won with him that time gets back aboard (jose ortiz)



    R9 #4 rocketry (7-2)

    on a fast track with a fair pace I think he's the best at this distance (1 3/4 miles dirt)



    R10 #2 tactician (4-1)

    placed right, potentially good pace scenario and a trainer who excels in many categories..like that he gets back to 2 turns after the 1 turn mile at churchill last out
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

     
     
  19. #4469

    Re: horse plays

    2011 Winner of TIS college football contest
    2012 - 2013
    NBA 33-18-1
    MLB 16-12
    NFL 27-13-1
    CFB 12-11
    CBB 9-2
    MLB 2013 2-0
    NHL 1-0

    2013
    GOY 1-0 Mississippi +9.5 Over LSU 27-24

    2018
    NFL 0-1

     
     
  20. #4470
    Senior Member

    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    Location
    The Woodlands, TX
    Posts
    4,994

    Re: horse plays


     
     
  21. #4471

    Re: horse plays

    saratoga.. if track sloppy go lighter

    R2 #4 soul flight (12-1)

    because of the trainer you'll get a big price.. lots of excusable races and the better ones would be competitive in here.. last time jockey rode him 5 starts back finished 2nd.. last 2 turn race at this track would beat this field.. intrigued at a price


    R5 #6 no mo' spending (5-2)

    R7 #3 love on the run (6-1)
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

     
     
  22. #4472

    Re: horse plays

    saratoga

    R1 #6 cause I said so (3-1)

    I just find it interesting that joel rides this horse after doing nothing his last race


    R2 #1 bourbon'n ditch (30-1)

    there's a lot of interesting stuff going on here and at stratospheric odds worth a small bet




    R3 #1 no more miracles (4-1)


    R4 #2 catch a cab (2-1)


    R5 #6 guardian moon (2-1)


    R9 #8 king's honor (15-1)
    Last edited by bleeker; 08-06-2020 at 03:21 PM.
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

     
     
  23. #4473

    Re: horse plays

    2011 Winner of TIS college football contest
    2012 - 2013
    NBA 33-18-1
    MLB 16-12
    NFL 27-13-1
    CFB 12-11
    CBB 9-2
    MLB 2013 2-0
    NHL 1-0

    2013
    GOY 1-0 Mississippi +9.5 Over LSU 27-24

    2018
    NFL 0-1

     
     
  24. #4474

    Re: horse plays

    Quote Originally Posted by FRAOLI4444 View Post


    thanks fraoli
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

     
     
  25. #4475

    Re: horse plays

    finished saratoga
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

     
     

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