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Thread: horse plays

  1. #1501

    Re: horse plays

    Quote Originally Posted by bleeker View Post
    well don't get a lot of opportunities to bet them obviously as it's only saratoga for the most part..
    I always try to find something that's a little hidden as last thing I want is a horse who won or came in the money in his last race..they'll win their share but too obvious even if they're off a long layoff..I'll take a peak at trainer and jockey records but that's a secondary thing for me..I have one favorite move that doesn't show itself often but does today with this horse..like horses coming in off 11f or 12f flat races if they've run a certain way in them..I like a gradual fade front to middle or middle to back..feel this prepares them nicely for the extra 4-7 furlongs they'll have to travel in the hurdles..also like to see that they've been competitive in the past running in them..not really much more than that..maybe a horse who ran an average race off a long layoff and had run well in the past and taking a needed drop in class..but that's no different than playing the flats and not particular to the hurdles
    also worth mentioning that I like those type of running lines for horses going from 6-7f to 8-9f and same logic applies..I prefer at least a 2f stretchout in these situations so 7f must go to 9f which doesn't happen very often..so mostly 6-6.5f to 8-8.5f..and as with the hurdles I like them to have gone the long distance in the past..exception would be a lightly raced horse who has route bloodlines. .I'll forgive lack of experience in that situation
    Last edited by bleeker; 08-09-2017 at 07:30 AM.

     
     
  2. #1502

    Re: horse plays

    Thanks bleeker for the info !! Yeah with the uk/Ireland racing they do a lot with weights and even longer distance 3 miles !! GL with your selections today, let's get the hot streak going !!

     
     
  3. #1503

    Re: horse plays

    thanks jim13..I hope so

    trying to pick lower hanging fruit today so hopefully get at least 1 correct

     
     
  4. #1504

    Re: horse plays

    Quote Originally Posted by bleeker View Post
    thanks jim13..I hope so

    trying to pick lower hanging fruit today so hopefully get at least 1 correct
    I asked for it making that comment.. couple of seconds not good enough

    saratoga thursday

    R2 #7 prost (20-1)

    if your gonna try to hit a price horse why not a mdn clm 30k going 9f..I think the even race troubled trip in debut at aqu is actually a useful primer to gain experience and prepare for a stretch out ..lots of droppers in here and that ain't happening cause this bunch is living up to expectations


    R3 #4 dooder (2-1)

    going to break my don't play chad brown firster rule because this gal cost an extraordinary amount of money
    with the lack of production on the bottom..feel these types are bought based on their physicality which is an angle I like


    R9 #8 new canaan (6-1)

    even at 40k nice piece of change for 6500 stud no production on the bottom..smart strike dadam sire always a good thing for turf..


    del mar

    R6 #6 lemon crush (20-1)

    bred,owned and trained by the same lady..she hasn't started a horse this year but has trainer stats (guess from last year )have her 4/20 msw-mcl..by new sire richard's kid out of a winning dam who has 2 winners from as many starters and both won as 2yo's which is a big plus..one blazing work 1/76 three races back but all others quite
    tepid..kind of says to me she has the speed when needed and they just want to get her in condition
    Last edited by bleeker; 08-10-2017 at 03:56 PM.

     
     
  5. #1505

    Re: horse plays

    added R9 at saratoga and R6 at dmr

     
     
  6. #1506

    Re: horse plays

    I have been using brisnet pp's for well over a year now whereas before was using drf for close to 30 years.. have picked some decent ones along the way this past year in spite of current cold streak.. truth of the matter is on scale there are frequent (understatement)
    huge differences between the two.. can't have that and trust the beyers more.. switching back to drf and only doing ny from here on out (except for special days at other tracks).. more expensive product so probably cut back my playing a bit


    saratoga


    R5 #6 la contessa (5-1)

    i know I said I wouldn't pick pletcher 1st time out 2yo's but a couple of differences here.. one is this is a turf race and he's known for dirt with these types.. two, is my costs a bunch for the pedigree angle (200k)...1st starter from a dam who only placed in her career from a 35k stallion


    R9 #3 madame barbarian (30-1)

    since being switched over to (yes not from) horrible trainer metiver she has put together 2 very competitive beyers.. her best beyer right up with the best in here. exits an open 25k clm and today gets into a clm 40k n2L which I consider a drop.. while cancel just an avg at best jock he's an upgrade from 7 lb bug reyes.. probably not but the value will be there
    Last edited by bleeker; 08-11-2017 at 03:43 PM.

     
     
  7. #1507

    Re: horse plays

    Ok bleeker good luck !! There was that big of difference ??

     
     
  8. #1508

    Re: horse plays

    Quote Originally Posted by Jim13 View Post
    Ok bleeker good luck !! There was that big of difference ??

    it's ridiculous jim.. if you look at the same card of races with both pp's you realize that you have to make a choice of who you believe.. a horse with full 10 pp line you'll easily see 3-5 races with a 5-7 length difference and almost all will be 1-2 lengths off.. just can't have that and I trust the beyers more.. they put more into making their figures than brisnet

     
     
  9. #1509

    Re: horse plays

    added play

     
     
  10. #1510

    Re: horse plays

    Quote Originally Posted by bleeker View Post
    I have been using brisnet pp's for well over a year now whereas before was using drf for close to 30 years.. have picked some decent ones along the way this past year in spite of current cold streak.. truth of the matter is on scale there are frequent (understatement)
    huge differences between the two.. can't have that and trust the beyers more.. switching back to drf and only doing ny from here on out (except for special days at other tracks).. more expensive product so probably cut back my playing a bit


    saratoga


    R5 #6 la contessa (5-1)

    i know I said I wouldn't pick pletcher 1st time out 2yo's but a couple of differences here.. one is this is a turf race and he's known for dirt with these types.. two, is my costs a bunch for the pedigree angle (200k)...1st starter from a dam who only placed in her career from a 35k stallion


    R9 #3 madame barbarian (30-1)

    since being switched over to (yes not from) horrible trainer metiver she has put together 2 very competitive beyers.. her best beyer right up with the best in here. exits an open 25k clm and today gets into a clm 40k n2L which I consider a drop.. while cancel just an avg at best jock he's an upgrade from 7 lb bug reyes.. probably not but the value will be there
    R10

     
     
  11. #1511

    Re: horse plays

    saratoga


    R2 #1 oskar blues (12-1)


    assuming the mighty pletcher will go off odds on and if he does he wins with close to 90% with these types (msw 2yo fts).. take a shot with the expensive speightstown just to the inside of him who's one of the better first out sires.. dam was unplaced and first foal to race so 350k nice piece of change for this guy.. admittedly being out of an ap Indy dam might have something to do with that price even though as I said no production so far

    R7 #4 lone sailor (12-1)

    another 2yo msw where I'll try to beat a pletcher firster.. my usual cost relative to pedigree (only 120k but still expensive relatively speaking)..sprint oriented pedigree and capable first out trainer

    R9 #4 spartiatis

    been fairly successful on the dirt at or around this level past couple of years.. think the G1
    a g vanderbilt (37-1) was just a little excersize to have him ready for this spot


    R6 #2 machtree (6-1) half unit

    first time starter talent goes 5 deep in this field imo (some might argue 1 or 2 more)
    .. just to have a little action this one falls a bit into line with my angle.. 100k stud kitten's joy
    out of a stakes placed mare.. 2 winners from 2 starters but neither a stakes winner.. 450k
    a healthy price but not outrageously expensive for this info..also has speed influence forestry on the bottom which is a good thing.. the other firsters I was referring to are 4 8 9 10


    R11 #8 dab (7-2)

    have a hunch trainer terranova might regret losing this horse for 25k last race as was claimed by assmussen.. 130k 2yo purchase with only 6 career starts ran a real nice one in his turf debut at belmont 3 back and then was handicapped with extreme posts his last two starts.. fits well here in statebred mcl 40k @ 5.5f..guessing he'll be around 8/5

    Last edited by bleeker; 08-12-2017 at 06:03 PM.

     
     
  12. #1512

    Re: horse plays

    added play

     
     
  13. #1513

    Re: horse plays

    added play

     
     
  14. #1514

    Re: horse plays

    added R6

     
     
  15. #1515

    Re: horse plays

    added R11

     
     
  16. #1516

    Re: horse plays

    Bleeker nice job with today selections !! That's the way to get going !! Let's get the bankroll back up again. I always thought the 2yos are the hardest to figure out. Had the exacta in the 2nd with your selection and the favorites should of played the tri too !! Should woulda coulda !!!

     
     
  17. #1517

    Re: horse plays

    R2 #6 night owl (3-1)

    whether ,no pun intended,they will run on the turf today
    is still in question but noticed my angle on this one ..not over the top there but without breaking it down definitely
    in the ballpark.msw 2 turns on the turf for 2yo fillies ..for these types of races the info I need is in brisnet so that's where I get the following ..I noticed the distance rating on this horse was the highest i've ever seen..he is by new sire animal kingdom (ky derby and dubai classic winner) and out of a curlin mare..the former has one of the most interesting pedigrees I have ever seen..by 2005 turf champion leroidesanimaux (died last year) who was a grandson of blushing groom..a very obscure bloodline going forward to today's pedigrees.the only other american line is through northern dancer's great son lyphard who was from his 3rd crop in 1969..he has lyphard
    44 through the sire and dam..lyphard was more European and you don't see much filtering through to today's
    american bloodlines ..all the other names going back 5 generations are all euros (stamina) I never heard of or might of at one time and don't remember ..no mr prospector,bold ruler,hail to reason or in reality and as I said the lyphard line is an obscure branch of nd..have a hunch animal kingdom's gonna be a good stamina influence for a long time to come. and the fact that he's a complete or almost complete outcross of most american bloodlines i think is a good thing but that's above my pay grade..for the record I have not formally studied pedigree. .just casual observation over a long period of time


    added.. curlin on the bottom affects that rating also.. definetly a stamina influence

    I c+p this from another place I post (my writing) so that why it's boldface.. sure it's easy to change but I'm a cluts with these things
    Last edited by bleeker; 08-13-2017 at 08:14 AM.

     
     
  18. #1518

    Re: horse plays

    Quote Originally Posted by Jim13 View Post
    Bleeker nice job with today selections !! That's the way to get going !! Let's get the bankroll back up again. I always thought the 2yos are the hardest to figure out. Had the exacta in the 2nd with your selection and the favorites should of played the tri too !! Should woulda coulda !!!
    thanks jim13.. Been struggling for a long time as you know so felt good to get those two.. not sure if I'll be playing much beyond the above play.. definitely be aboard tomorrow as card looks friendlier as to what I look for.. glad you caught something.. they both dug in when challenged in the stretch and the early one I thought I just missed upon first observation.. just got the bob.. exciting races

     
     
  19. #1519

    Re: horse plays

    Quote Originally Posted by bleeker View Post
    R2 #6 night owl (3-1)

    whether ,no pun intended,they will run on the turf today
    is still in question but noticed my angle on this one ..not over the top there but without breaking it down definitely
    in the ballpark.msw 2 turns on the turf for 2yo fillies ..for these types of races the info I need is in brisnet so that's where I get the following ..I noticed the distance rating on this horse was the highest i've ever seen..he is by new sire animal kingdom (ky derby and dubai classic winner) and out of a curlin mare..the former has one of the most interesting pedigrees I have ever seen..by 2005 turf champion leroidesanimaux (died last year) who was a grandson of blushing groom..a very obscure bloodline going forward to today's pedigrees.the only other american line is through northern dancer's great son lyphard who was from his 3rd crop in 1969..he has lyphard
    44 through the sire and dam..lyphard was more European and you don't see much filtering through to today's
    american bloodlines ..all the other names going back 5 generations are all euros (stamina) I never heard of or might of at one time and don't remember ..no mr prospector,bold ruler,hail to reason or in reality and as I said the lyphard line is an obscure branch of nd..have a hunch animal kingdom's gonna be a good stamina influence for a long time to come. and the fact that he's a complete or almost complete outcross of most american bloodlines i think is a good thing but that's above my pay grade..for the record I have not formally studied pedigree. .just casual observation over a long period of time


    added.. curlin on the bottom affects that rating also.. definetly a stamina influence

    I c+p this from another place I post (my writing) so that why it's boldface.. sure it's easy to change but I'm a cluts with these things

    above scratched


    saratoga

    R5 #3 dwizard (7-2)

    sire above avg first out and dam has been a real producer.. 6 winners from 7 starters of which 4 won at 2..understand these are 3yo's but that still couldn't be a bad thing.. btw 2 stakes winners among the 6.. bred and owned by the same guy scuderi..boy he's been at it a long time.. think he goes back to either gasper moschera or peter ferriola who were ny trainers in the 80's and 90's.. jose ortiz aboard.. trainer nevin has one other in here that has run well and is 5/2 ml (#8).. she is the breeder and part owner of that one

     
     
  20. #1520

    Re: horse plays

    added play.. probably it for today

     
     
  21. #1521

    Re: horse plays

    saratoga


    R1 #6 non finisce mai (5-2)
    R2 #1 entry (4-1)both parts and the 1 one of those expensive rel/ped types.. fts

     
     
  22. #1522

    Re: horse plays

    saratoga


    R1 #6 non finisce mai (5-2)

    _______________
    R2 #1 entry (4-1)both parts and the 1 one of those expensive rel/ped types.. fts

    ______________________


    R4 #2 scatjack (8-1)

    fts scat daddy out of stakes placed gone west mare.. nice ped.. not an ex/ped horse

    ___________

    R5 #3 overdramatic (8-1)


    R8 #3 super allison (8-1)

    3rd off 9 month layoff and her last reminds me of the sprint race she ran in the bouwerie (nyb stakes) where she dropped and stretched next out to win..this a move this trainer excels at and carlos martin having an excellent saratoga so far..ran in a nyb stakes here last year and had a troubled trip ..at least 2 horses came out of that race to repeat

    --------------------

    R9 #4 eucalyptus (12-1)

    same trainer as R5 and similar mo..long layoff,horse who showed talent in limited starts last year..lrl works including last over training track here and 1st start for this trainer... clm 40k n2L seems like a good spot for him and admittedly would feel bad if he won and I didn't have it
    Last edited by bleeker; 08-14-2017 at 11:24 AM.

     
     
  23. #1523

    Re: horse plays

    added R4 R5

     
     
  24. #1524

    Re: horse plays

    added R8 R9..that'll do it

     
     
  25. #1525

    Re: horse plays

    saratoga

    R1 #1 kremlin (4-1)

    similar cicumstances to big win 2 back..running line and two weeks exactly between races

    R2 #7 d'ambrosio (5-2)

    R4 #5 b three (15-1)

    has beyers on dirt that fit vs these..think he'll benefit from last turf effort with cutback,drop and surface switch

    R5 #10 ten eyck (8-1)

    homebred fts has win early and turf pedigree ..outside posts do well at this distance

    R6 #1 full salute (7-2)

    R8 #1 rooftop view (20-1)

    horse seems to be back in shape after 2 non-efforts..back numbers from last year would get it done here..trainer has excellent roi's in many categories that apply

    R9 #6 schott (6-1)
    Last edited by bleeker; 08-16-2017 at 02:03 PM.

     
     

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