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  • Re: horse plays

    Originally posted by FRAOLI4444 View Post
    bleeker im putting some money on a local jockey david mello i have hit some big ones with him

    he's really bad fraoli.. my pp's show 1/36 this year.. possible it's just this year is bad.. guessing he was out for a while to have that few mounts in mid may
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

    Comment


    • Re: horse plays

      looks like good weather at belmont,pimlico and churchill with the latter having a 5pm post..will be looking at them all
      _______________________________________________
      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

      Comment


      • Re: horse plays

        Thanks bleeker
        2011 Winner of TIS college football contest
        2012 - 2013
        NBA 33-18-1
        MLB 16-12
        NFL 27-13-1
        CFB 12-11
        CBB 9-2
        MLB 2013 2-0
        NHL 1-0

        2013
        GOY 1-0 Mississippi +9.5 Over LSU 27-24

        2018
        NFL 0-1

        Comment


        • Re: horse plays

          Originally posted by FRAOLI4444 View Post
          Thanks bleeker

          np fraoli



          belmont

          R1 #5 amos (3-1)
          R2 #2 la vida (10-1)

          chad brown has a $1.6M debut horse (#5.. 6-5) that I'd cover with in exacta


          R3 #5 hoard (10-1)
          R4 pass


          R6 #5 hampton point (8-1)
          R7 #6 sarrasin (12-1)
          R9 #11 frosty linz (20-1)


          pimlico (know they're off the turf)

          R1 #9 souper courage (4-1)
          R2 #1 natasha fatale (9-5)
          R3 #2 foggy dreams (7-2)
          R4 #8 peak performance (10-1)

          not sure he can give one off 16 month layoff with a trainer/owner I never heard of.. good jockey though and it's not a ridiculous drop (open 12.5 to beaten clm 5k).. lightly raced 6yo gelding another positive.. small bet



          R5 #7 cairo holiday (9-2)
          R9 #5 belmont ride (2-1)


          going to work on the later tracks.. belmont 3pm churchill 5 pm


          churchill

          R1 #5 bourbon girl (15-1)
          R4 #7 pranked (3-1)
          R8 #3 dixieincandyland (6-1)
          Last edited by bleeker; 05-16-2019, 04:54 PM.
          _______________________________________________
          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

          Comment


          • Re: horse plays

            2011 Winner of TIS college football contest
            2012 - 2013
            NBA 33-18-1
            MLB 16-12
            NFL 27-13-1
            CFB 12-11
            CBB 9-2
            MLB 2013 2-0
            NHL 1-0

            2013
            GOY 1-0 Mississippi +9.5 Over LSU 27-24

            2018
            NFL 0-1

            Comment


            • Re: horse plays

              Originally posted by FRAOLI4444 View Post

              thanks fraoli. .

              also finished pimlico
              _______________________________________________
              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

              Comment


              • Re: horse plays

                finished belmont
                _______________________________________________
                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                Comment


                • Re: horse plays

                  done
                  _______________________________________________
                  ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                  Comment


                  • Re: horse plays

                    pimlico ... 11:30 post


                    R1 #2 midnight mass (5-1)

                    R2 #8 family tree (6-1)

                    think he finally gets what he needs to win.. middle distance, no blinkers, solid turf jock and right placement.. sharp 3f work and love the trainers name... jeremiah o'dwyer


                    R3 #8 fleeterthan (3-1)

                    looks to be speed of the speed which works well at pimlico.. joel rosario an insane 31% winners in 118 sprint races.. besides like the name for a speed horse


                    R4 #8 rail master (8-1)

                    R5 #5 marvelous martina (10-1)


                    R6 #7 seeking the sunset (6-1)

                    claimed this horse out of a clm 5k n2L in his 3rd career start.. 3 weeks later run him in a open clm 15k turf sprint and finishes 2nd which is pretty damn good considering the claiming price.. nothing on the slop in an off the turf race at a mile next out.. next race same level stays on the turf (oc 25k) and wins close to a 9 length fast pace with a stakes quality figure.. wow!! that was in August and his last start on 4/22 won by almost 4 lengths with a solid figure up close again to a fast pace in a starter allowance race.. with a couple of other high profile trainers in here (this guy's a newbie) hopefully get some value on him



                    R11 black-eyed susan grade 2 @ 1 1/8 miles

                    (it's the filly equivalent of the preakness..they have a bet linking this to the derby..I'd use sweet diane with 2 4 5 8 in the derby..payoff could be anywhere from around $100 -$300 for $2 ...possibly more


                    #1 sweet diane (15-1) SCRATCHED

                    falls into that not only expensive but expensive relative to the pedigree category for me.. like what she did as a 2yo and the pace in that listed stakes at gulfstream she ran in was very fast.. looks like a couple of wide trips in her 3yo starts including being close to a very fast pace in the fairgrounds oaks last out.. ..switching trainers to kennealley who's killing it at churchill and is excellent with first time acquisitions.. jose ortiz rides.. think will be significantly lower than morning line



                    R14 #4 burak (8-1)
                    Last edited by bleeker; 05-17-2019, 03:13 PM.
                    _______________________________________________
                    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                    Comment


                    • Re: horse plays

                      added black-eyed susan
                      _______________________________________________
                      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                      Comment


                      • Re: horse plays

                        added R14
                        _______________________________________________
                        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                        Comment


                        • Re: horse plays

                          pimlico 10:30 post


                          R1 #8 turnstyle (8-1)

                          noticed mr prospector was the dam sire which you don't see much (1970 foal).. looked up the pedigree and the dam safe return was out of safely kept (1986) who's one of the greatest female sprinters of all time.. of course mr p one of the all time great sires..this one is a homebred and I believe is trained by a protégé of safely kept's trainer alan goldberg.. this is only a maiden claiming race so this horse not aiming for greatness but there are trainer angles and her first time up for a tag so take a shot at a price


                          R2 #5 liquid aloha (4-1)
                          R3 #3 king for a day (7-5)

                          probably 3-5 and much better than this field in spite of the ml on #4 being 9-5


                          R4 #5 misty on pointe (4-1)
                          R5 #4 english bee (5-1)
                          R6 #1 new york central (6-1)
                          R7 #5 ickymasho (8-5)
                          R8 #9 overdeliver (3-1)
                          R9 #8 misericordia (4-1)

                          R10 #1 i'm so fancy (7-2)
                          R11 #1 lexitonian (15-1)

                          looks like a lot of speed and thinking he may sit a nice trip on the rail.. like that he was able to break his maiden in june in his debut at belmont last year.. looks like that was followed by a troubled trip in the sanford and a failed attempt at a mile at keeneland which ended his 2yo campaign.. very encouraged they'd bring him back in 12 days after his first race off a long layoff.. ambitious placing.. jose ortiz rides



                          R12 #2 just howard (10-1)


                          R13 preakness

                          #2 bourbon war (9-2 @ 1pm and was 12-1 ml)



                          R14 #8 firecrow (4-1)

                          one of those extremely expensive relative to the pedigree types.. mclean's music out of an Indian charlie mare is speed top and bottom... 3rd career race with his last being a nice step forward.. best sprint jockey rosario hops aboard


                          may look at few more elsewhere
                          Last edited by bleeker; 05-18-2019, 12:13 PM.
                          _______________________________________________
                          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                          Comment


                          • Re: horse plays

                            finished pimlico
                            _______________________________________________
                            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                            Comment


                            • Re: horse plays

                              thanks for all you do really appreciate the time and effort it takes to post.

                              Comment


                              • Re: horse plays

                                Originally posted by illini23 View Post
                                thanks for all you do really appreciate the time and effort it takes to post.

                                no problem illini23.. labor of love and appreciate the good word!
                                _______________________________________________
                                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                                Comment

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