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Play the "under" in MLB this week-end

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  • #61
    Re: Play the "under" in MLB this week-end

    Should have been around 7-8 without all those 9th inning collapses. 3 games they had 3 or more runs scored in the 9th that went from Ws to Ls

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    • #62
      Re: Play the "under" in MLB this week-end

      Nice 9-3 rebound by the UNDERS today
      "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

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      • #63
        Re: Play the "under" in MLB this week-end

        I think the record for Saturday was actually 9-5.

        Both Cards/Cubs games went over, as did the Colorado, Cleveland, and Mets/Yankees games. All of the rest were under.

        There were also two rain-outs for the day.

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        • #64
          Re: Play the "under" in MLB this week-end

          Don't forget that there is a Phillies/Padres doubleheader today to make up for yesterday's rain-out.

          The day/night doubleheader is scheduled for 12 pm and 6 pm.

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          • #65
            Re: Play the "under" in MLB this week-end

            Originally posted by jumperjack View Post
            I personally am going to not touch the rest of the Cubs/Cards series. This under trend started when they lengthened the break to 4 games for the most part. This Cards/Cubs series is the first time since 2011 that any of the post all-star game series started on Thursday.
            This strategy has worked out very well for you. All four Cards/Cubs games have gone over.

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            • #66
              Re: Play the "under" in MLB this week-end

              I am not counting any of the Cubs games towards this "system", the unders trend started when MLB implemented a basically 4 day break across the board in 2012. Before that many many series started on Thursday after the break, since then this years' Cubs series was the first. I made note of the significance of 3 or 4 days off back on page 1 in 2015.
              "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

              Comment


              • #67
                Re: Play the "under" in MLB this week-end

                A total dumpster fire of a week-end.

                I knew this system would lose at some point, but I did not expect it would get totally crushed.

                Sunday results..........4-11 with the Mets/Yankees game postponed.

                Results for the week-end (including the one game on Thursday).........17-28.

                Results for the seven year period (2012-2018).......180-123-8.

                Great record overall, but very little consolation if you got hammered this week-end (like I did).

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                • #68
                  Re: Play the "under" in MLB this week-end

                  I pronounce this thread to be dead.

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                  • #69
                    Re: Play the "under" in MLB this week-end

                    Now that the patient has been pronounced dead, it is time for the autopsy.

                    This thread is an example of how following a system can go off the rails at any given time.

                    For the last 7 years, this system has performed very well. As stated above, the record for that time (2012-2018) is 180-123-8. (59.4%)

                    The fundamental theory behind the system remains the same, and it is a good one. Hitters coming off 4 days away from the game over the All-Star break are going to have their timing be rusty, while pitchers (especially bullpens) are going to be renewed and be stronger.

                    The one problem, though, with this or any system, is that eventually, one year will come along where it takes one in the chops.

                    With this system, that would be last year when it crashed and burned to the tune of 17-28. This included book-end 4-11 days on Friday and Sunday.

                    It was a disaster, and despite my warning that the system was bound to fall on its ass eventually, I went right ahead and played it like normal, and got absolutely hammered. To the tune of some large coin.

                    So what about this year? It's a good question. The system had 6 good years in a row (before the bad one), and the underlying theory is still a sound one.

                    The flip side is the lingering stench of last year's performance, and the possibility that the baseballs are really juiced, and people are scoring runs like never before.

                    I have no idea what to expect, so despite the good overall record, I think I will be taking a pass.

                    Systems are always tricky bits of business.

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      Re: Play the "under" in MLB this week-end

                      Originally posted by barrett View Post
                      Now that the patient has been pronounced dead, it is time for the autopsy.

                      This thread is an example of how following a system can go off the rails at any given time.

                      For the last 7 years, this system has performed very well. As stated above, the record for that time (2012-2018) is 180-123-8. (59.4%)

                      The fundamental theory behind the system remains the same, and it is a good one. Hitters coming off 4 days away from the game over the All-Star break are going to have their timing be rusty, while pitchers (especially bullpens) are going to be renewed and be stronger.

                      The one problem, though, with this or any system, is that eventually, one year will come along where it takes one in the chops.

                      With this system, that would be last year when it crashed and burned to the tune of 17-28. This included book-end 4-11 days on Friday and Sunday.

                      It was a disaster, and despite my warning that the system was bound to fall on its ass eventually, I went right ahead and played it like normal, and got absolutely hammered. To the tune of some large coin.

                      So what about this year? It's a good question. The system had 6 good years in a row (before the bad one), and the underlying theory is still a sound one.

                      The flip side is the lingering stench of last year's performance, and the possibility that the baseballs are really juiced, and people are scoring runs like never before.

                      I have no idea what to expect, so despite the good overall record, I think I will be taking a pass.

                      Systems are always tricky bits of business.

                      could see it doing well this year.. now that it went over the year before plus the obvious (juiced baseball) probably will get you a good deal on the unders
                      _______________________________________________
                      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

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                      • #71
                        Re: Play the "under" in MLB this week-end

                        So far, the UNDERS are:

                        Thursday: 1-0

                        Friday: 9-6

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                        • #72
                          Re: Play the "under" in MLB this week-end

                          Saturday: 7-8-1

                          Total for the UNDERS so far......17-14-1

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                          • #73
                            Re: Play the "under" in MLB this week-end

                            I'm not sure why you keep including the teams that start on Thursday. Last year was a perfect 4-0 over sweep and the "system" started when MLB gave the players an extra day off by basically giving the whole league till Friday before they played again. In some cases there is one series that starts early, I personally throw that series out for the weekend because it doesn't fit the parameters of 4 days off. 11-16-1 O/U this year so far, links below, because of the Rays/Orioles DH Saturday the 2nd game OVER is missing, so 12-16-1 for this season.

                            https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

                            https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
                            "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              Re: Play the "under" in MLB this week-end

                              Yeah, JJ, you might be right. On the other hand, the Texas/Houston Thursday night game went UNDER, even though the next two games went OVER.

                              There is just too little data on the one Thursday night game to determine whether this doesn't fit the system.

                              What is more alarming is the fact that the Rays and the Angels were so rusty from their 4 day lay-off that they went out and scored 7 runs each in the first inning of their Friday night games.

                              Oddly enough, the Cubs and A's did the same thing on Saturday.

                              I still think that this system has had its day, profits were made on it, and it is time to move on.

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                Re: Play the "under" in MLB this week-end

                                Sunday: 8-7

                                UNDERS for the week-end: 25-21-1

                                Doing it JumperJack's way: 24-18-1

                                2012-2019 (8 years).......205-144-9

                                TOTAL for 8 years doing it JJ's way.......204-137-9
                                Last edited by barrett; 07-15-2019, 08:22 AM. Reason: -

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