AF after the break

[Thomas]

Hey guys, don't post here that often and my main contribution has been giving JD a wee bit of a hand when I can over in the newsletter section. I'm a database guy among other things but I love working the mine at sportsdatabase.com, a fantastic free resource. Here's something I thought maybe you NBA punters might like seeing, could help down the stretch here in April:

Seen some talk around the net about good teams playing bad teams in April and got an email today from Ed at ASHN who happens to be looking at this as well so I decided to take it out for a ride on the database and the results are indeed "good" I call it the zero motivation query

Teams with a WP >66 vs a team with a WP<33 in the month of April since 2006:

season>2005 and WP>66 and o:WP<33 and month=4

http://sportsdatabase.com/nba/query?sdql=season%3E2005+and+WP%3E66+and+o%3AWP%3C 33+and+month%3D4+&submit=S+D+Q+L+!

40-18-3 ats 53-8 su

Make em away:

season>2005 and WP>66 and o:WP<33 and month=4 and A

21-6-2 ats 24-5 su

The last two years:
12-5-1 ats 14-4 su and 5-2 suats away

[jumperjack]

Re: Good vs bad in April

Great info Thomas. I posted something here immediately following the all star game about post all star game favorites in general being very strong.

http://www.customcappers.com/forum/s...Star-Game-Favs

[Thomas]

Re: Good vs bad in April

Jack it was that post that got me looking into this originally, good info and thanks. I went after AF's who have done well since the break until last night when all 4 HD's won and of course covered. Kinda fell to the back burner as I'm involved in a total system that requires some attention but Ed's email revived the thought about your post leading to this post.

[Thomas]

Re: Good vs bad in April

Thinking about AF since the break and came up with this, since the break AF coming off an away game are 31-16-1 ats

date>20140216 and AF and p:A
http://sportsdatabase.com/nba/query?...ubmit=S+D+Q+L+!

Have the AF with no rest and you have a nice 14-3 ats 15-2 su trend

date>20140216 and AF and p:A and t:rest=0
http://sportsdatabase.com/nba/query?...ubmit=S+D+Q+L+!

Produces a play on Toronto-3 and it's moving up as I type, but still available at many outlets

NY also shows up as a play tonight but it looks like they will close at pk and it would be a no play, but I like them to redeem themselves tonight after that shitkickin from the Lakers

[Jel]

Re: Good vs bad in April

Great information! Thanks for the post Thomas! Something I will absolutely follow more closely now!

[Thomas]

Re: Good vs bad in April

date > 20140216 and AF and p:A
http://sportsdatabase.com/nba/query?...ubmit=S+D+Q+L+
This one went 3-0 last night, Play on Porty and LAC tonight

date>20140216 and AF and p:A and t:rest=0
http://sportsdatabase.com/nba/query?...ubmit=S+D+Q+L+
2-0 last night play on LAC tonight

Just a few more days and we can see how the April stuff pans out and some data buddies have tweaked it up a bit with some nice results I'll post them as we move ahead.

I don't like backfitting and all things inside a query should have some kind of reasonable correlation which I strive to find.

[Jel]

Re: Good vs bad in April

I didn't get on the Knick last night but did cash with Phoenix and Toronto. Already on Portland and LA tonight..... Once again, thanks for the info and work.

[Thomas]

Re: Good vs bad in April

2-0 Last night with Porty and the clips in a good game, tied after 1 period, Dallas up 2 at the half, tied after 3 and a 6 point win in the 4th and an easy cover. Tonight we march on with this same trend: date > 20140216 and AF and p:A which produces a play on the Heat currently at -6.5. A little caution here tonight if you're following this as Miami is 1-2 in this situation since the break and 0-2 in March losing to Boston and Chicago and have generally been a 50/50 proposition lately going W,LW,L,W,L their last 6 games (1-4-1 ats). However i feel they may be in a good spot here with a little grumbling going on about recent play. Opened 5.5 and moving up with mostly 6.5's I bet them -6 -13. gl

[Jel]

Re: Good vs bad in April

I am on it too... hesitated when I saw their record in this trend but decided to play it anyway. I too have them -6... GL!

[Thomas]

Re: Good vs bad in April

Should've waited see 5.5's now, damn I hate losing points

[Jel]

Re: Good vs bad in April

Should've waited see 5.5's now, damn I hate losing points

My book has them at -5 right now....

[Thomas]

Re: Good vs bad in April

Looks like we could've given 20 or so Jel, lol. Up 30 with 7 minutes I'm counting that chicken

[Thomas]

Re: Good vs bad in April

Miami again tomorrow but -10 ish away to the bucks, have to investigate this a little more I think but we're on a nice run now, 6-0

[Jel]

Re: Good vs bad in April

Looks like we could've given 20 or so Jel, lol. Up 30 with 7 minutes I'm counting that chicken

Right??!! Winner winner!!!!!!

[Jel]

Re: Good vs bad in April

Miami again tomorrow but -10 ish away to the bucks, have to investigate this a little more I think but we're on a nice run now, 6-0

HATE the number but I'm on the play!! Not gonna stop now.