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Why Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez will beat Floyd Mayweather

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  • Why Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez will beat Floyd Mayweather

    American correspondant Jack Hirsch explains why Floyd Mayweather will lose.

    IN 1983 the perennial Stanley Cup hockey champion New York Islanders were set to square off in the championship final series against the upstart Edmonton Oilers, a team many felt was destined for greatness as well. “Dynasty versus Destiny” it was called. And indeed it was.

    There would be no more of an appropriate title to bestow on this Saturday’s Floyd Mayweather Jr – Saul “Canelo” Alvarez encounter. Mayweather is an established great, Alvarez groomed for such. Something surely must give.

    Few are picking against Mayweather, who if he wins will start to approach immortality. Considering his unbeaten record, dominance, and longevity, Mayweather has earned the distinction of being called boxing’s number one pound for pound fighter. And if he trumps Alvarez no objective observer should deny him his due. For you see, Alvarez is no ordinary opponent. He was groomed for this moment since turning pro at age 15.

    They say that it is harder to stay on top than it is to get there, but Mayweather’s dominance might be a bit of a mirage. It is easy to maintain your status when you are taking few risks. Floyd has only boxed five times since stopping Ricky Hatton in December 2007. Conversely Alvarez has gone to the post 28 times during that period.

    Another misconception is that Mayweather has this huge edge in experience. However, the fact is that Mayweather 44-0 (26) and Alvarez 42-0-1 (30) have boxed virtually the same amount of times as pro’s. And the one draw on Alvarez’s record is otherwise meaningless, coming in his sixth contest when he was essentially still a novice.

    At 36, Mayweather is unlikely to get old overnight. His fierce training regimen should keep him in good stead for the time being. However, some are associating Alvarez’s age (23) as a sign that he might not have reached his peak yet. Not so, the Mexican like Mayweather is as good as he’ll ever be. Had Alvarez’s camp not believed so they never would have allowed him to box Austin Trout, an unbeaten champion of high quality.

    There has been a pattern in some of Mayweather’s biggest victories in that he prevails not because he is the more skillful man, but that he is always able to outlast his opponents and pull away in the second half of the fight. Oscar De La Hoya, Zab Judah, Miguel Cotto, and Hatton all were doing quite well until they faded out in the second half of the fight. Had they been able to maintain the pace they set in the first half it is conceivable they would not have lost.

    Alvarez won’t fade at any point, Mayweather will have to defeat him more on skill than anything else. Certainly Mayweather has the ability to do so, he is a master tactician. Not since Pernell Whitaker dominated at lightweight have we seen a boxer so adept at completely shutting an opponent down. Alvarez’s defence is porous. It is easy to envision Mayweather popping him a punch at a time then safely moving out of range, all the while piling up points.

    However, I believe in Canelo’s firepower, that he will be able to crowd Mayweather, hurt him to the body and take him out of his comfort zone. The early rounds will be Mayweather’s, but Alvarez will close the gap by the end.

    This matchup reminds me so much of the Felix Trinidad – Oscar De La Hoya fight, that when it ended most thought Oscar won, but it was Trinidad who was given the decision. And I can smell the controversy brewing days away. Although they have agreed to a catch weight of 152lbs, something tells me that Canelo will not make the weight, choose to pay a hefty fine instead so he can enter the ring strong.

    I have studied Alvarez extensively since watching him as a 17-year-old freckled faced red head. He has been groomed for this moment, something I recognized then and have never wavered from.

    And for what it is worth the Islanders prevailed over the Oilers in four straight games, but the next year Edmonton returned the favor winning four games to one in the championship final. Destiny became the new dynasty as it was the first of the Oilers five Stanley Cup titles.

    Mayweather has a rematch clause if he should lose, which is what I predict will happen.

    Author : Jack Hirsch

  • #2
    Nice read.
    Thanks for posting

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    • #3
      Thanks TheGame, It seems like everyone is picking Mayweather so I wanted to provide a different perspective. I do believe Canelo has a legitimate shot at winning this fight!

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by WildCard View Post
        Thanks TheGame, It seems like everyone is picking Mayweather so I wanted to provide a different perspective. I do believe Canelo has a legitimate shot at winning this fight!
        You know the promoters are rooting for Canelo. There would be a huge demand for a rematch if it happens.

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