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UFC Fight Night 27 Betting

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  • UFC Fight Night 27 Betting

    UFC Fight Night 27 Betting

    Condit's Experience Will KO Kampmann
    By MMAODDSBREAKER

    UFC Fight Night 27: Carlos Condit (-250) vs. Martin Kampmann (+210)

    The main event of UFC Fight Night 27 is a five-round welterweight war between Carlos Condit and Martin Kampmann. This fight is a rematch of their 2009 bout in which Kampmann took a controversial split decision in a fight that many believe Condit won.

    Condit (28-7) is one of the best welterweights on the planet and one of the most devastating finishers in the entire sport, winning 26 of 28 fights by way of stoppage. The 29 year old trains with a great camp at Greg Jackson’s and he’s worked hard to get his wrestling on par with his vicious striking and slick BJJ, which is some of the best in the entire division.

    Although Condit is coming off two straight losses, those blemishes were to Georges St-Pierre and Johny Hendricks - the two best welterweights in the world. Those losses won’t hurt Condit, they will only make him grow as a martial artist, and his experience from those fights will help him get revenge against Kampmann.

    Kampmann (20-6) is a perennial welterweight contender and one of the most well-rounded fighters with a combination of technical striking and savvy ground game. The 31 year old hasn’t fought since last November when he was KO’d by Hendricks at UFC 154, so really he has less than a minute of cage time in over a year with his last win coming over Jake Ellenberger in June 2012.

    The layoff will surely hurt him against a tireless warrior like Condit and, although Kampmann got his hand raised in their first fight, this is a bad spot for him to come back to after that long layoff. This fight is going to be a war.

    For the first two rounds I see both men standing in the pocket and chucking bombs at one another to the delight of the Indianapolis crowd.

    Eventually all of Condit’s strikes are going to add up, Kampmann is going to wear down, and then Condit’s experience in the championship bouts will pay dividends as he finds his openings and beats up Kampmann so badly that the referee is forced to step in and stop the fight.

  • #2
    UFC FIGHT NIGHT 27

    INSIDE the RING Column

    Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis plays host to one of three UFC fight cards coming your way over an 8 day period.

    It all begins this coming Wednesday with UFC Fight Night 27, then heads to Bradley Center in Milwaukee for UFC 164, before finally culminating with another UFC road trip to Brazil for UFC Fight Night 28, the following Wednesday. What’s most amazing about this MMA buffet for fight fans is the fact all three cards are stacked with what appear to be exciting match-ups. A glance at either card will prove once again that UFC President Dana White, along with match-maker Joe Silva are eager to give fans the fights they want to see.

    The co-main event this Wednesday night features a lightweight clash between
    Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone (20-5) and Rafael Dos Anjos (19-6). Book makers opened Cerrone up as a -160 betting favorite but early money on Dos Anjos has forced the adjustment down to as low as -140. Cerrone’s best known for his stand-up, utilizing all three disciplines, Muay Thai, boxing, and kick boxing, so it’s not surprising to see he’ll enter the Octagon with 2 of his last 3 fights having ended by way of KO/TKO.

    But since joining Greg Jackson’s team in New Mexico, the “Cowboy” has shown a much more well rounded game. In fact, Cerrone attempts 1.62 take-downs per 15 minutes and has been successful in taking the fight to the mat almost 50% of the time. When it does get to the ground, Cerrone’s shown a very versatile grappling game, and an improved Brazilian Jiu Jitsu attack which accounts for his average of 2 submission attempts per 3 round fight.

    His opponent, Dos Anjos enters the cage on a four fight win streak and has had his arm raised in 8 of his last 10 UFC bouts. At 28 years of age, Dos Anjos is now emerging as one of the division’s toughest outs, as his fights last an average of almost 12 minutes per. There was a stretch between 2010 and 2012 where Dos Anjos strictly relied on his BJJ, and it was during it that he suffered 2 losses under the UFC banner.

    Since that time, he’s continued to develop his stand-up game and it’s reflected on his ledger which shows 3 straight “unanimous” decision victories. The greatest improvement in Dos Anjos’ stand-up has been his ability to avoid opponents strikes. He’s defended 71% of strikes, and that’s allowed him to take his opponents into deeper water since he rarely absorbs much punishment early on. Cerrone no doubt has the “name recognition” in this contest, and will also have both a height and reach advantage over Dos Anjos.

    But personally, I don’t believe those physical edge’s will be enough to compensate for the underdog’s advantage in the skill department. I have to agree with the early “steam” from a handful of professional bettors I’ve spoken to who already have a Dos Anjos ticket in their pockets…and I’m hoping public money on Cerrone drives this betting line back up so when I walk to the window to back the dog too, I get a generous take-back on Dos Anjos.

    PICK = RAFAEL DOS ANJOS +130

    In the main-event for UFC Fight Night 27, former UFC “Interim” Welterweight strap holder
    Carlos “The Natural Born Killer” Condit (28-7) takes on the always game Martin “The Hitman” Kampmann (20-6).

    These two mma practitioners have already met back in 2009, which marked Condit’s first time inside the Octagon, having come over from the WEC after Zuffa purchased and more or less merged the promotion.

    Though Condit went on to land more strikes in their first bout by a 35-26 margin, it was Kampmann’s ability to take the UFC “rookie” at the time down 5 times, pass his guard 3 times, and attempt 6 submissions, which led to his split-decision victory. So this has definitely been a rematch that both the fighters and the fans have been waiting for since UFC Fight Night 1.

    Ironically both fighters will enter the cage off a loss against Johny Hendricks. For Condit, the loss was the result of almost the exact same reason he lost to Kampmann over 4 years ago. Though he went on to land 12 more strikes than Hendricks did, Condit was taken down a total of 12 times over their 3 round battle, ultimately costing him a unanimous decision loss.

    On the flip side, we never got the chance to see how Kampmann matched up against Hendricks, since he walked into a punch only 46 seconds into the 1st round that resulted in a KO/TKO. Kampmann now makes his return to the Octagon almost 9 months later, to try and make another run at a title shot. Prior to that loss he was well on his way, having won 3 straight bouts against some of the biggest names at 170 lbs., Ellenberger, Alves, and Story.

    Oddsmakers sent the loser of the first fight, Condit,out as a -230 favorite to get his revenge and halt a 2 fight losing streak in the process. Since then, money on “The Natural Born Killer” has forced Bookmakers to raise the price to as high as -265. The take-back on Kampmann, who’s out to prove his 2009 split-decision win shouldn’t be debated, is a generous +210.

    Both men connect on over 40% of their strikes and land an almost identical amount on opponents per minute (3.27 for Kampmann vs 2.96 for Condit), and defensively they’re stats are relatively close as well. The favorite Condit has avoided 58% of his opponents strikes, compared to 63% for Kampmann.

    It’s no secret that Condit will want to keep the fight standing, as he prefers to use his Muay Thai to outland and systematically break opponents down while doing it. He uses a lot of leg kicks early to immobilize his challengers and then will start to land more punches.

    Condit attempts a little more than ½ a take-down per 15 minute bout, and has only been able to defend 37% of opponents attempts to take the fight to the ground. For Kampmann, though he’s a world class kick-boxer that’s presented plenty of problems for opponents, he’s also very comfortable on the mat. In fact he attempts more the double the take-downs as Condit, and more importantly, has been able to thwart 78% of his opponents attempts.

    What makes him even more dangerous is when Kampmann get’s top control, it’s not just a ground and pound barrage one needs to worry about, because he also attempts over 2 submissions per 3 rounds, compared to about half that for Condit. Bottom line, once again I believe we can take advantage of “perception”.

    But this time rather than having name recognition be the driving force, I believe it’s the fact Condit did so much better against Hendricks than Kampmann, and also casual bettors will label this a “must win” for the favorite who’s suffered 2 straight losses.

    Personally, I don’t think that type of pressure is a positive and having been in the fight game in one capacity or another for decades, I can promise you that trying to handicap a fight based on common opponents isn’t a good idea. The reason for this is simple, the old cliché of how “styles make fights” is actually very true, and how fighters match up against one and other differs greatly. So I’m going to wait for bettors to drive this line up as well then find myself with another ticket on a dog.

    PICK = MARTIN KAMPMANN +220

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