week 11

[Thomas]

Can't make a case for Cleveland cause there is no case for Cleveland in this matchup. Everything points to Pittsburgh that I look at, not always a good sign, and I'm not hoping that the Browns get their shit together all of a sudden. Preseason hype is gone and aside from the Baltimore win, which still amazes me, have done very little with that roster to get me excited. Better coaching better team and real important DIV game, I'll take the chance with the Steelers to win 24-17

Pitt -3 -109

[captjoe388]

Re: week 11

[Thomas]

Re: week 11

Joining bleeker on the total

[jumperjack]

Re: week 11

Thomas, earlier today I posted something for you in your week 10 thread.

[Chamblin]

Re: week 11

[Thomas]

Re: week 11

Great stuff Jack thanks, I'll leave it here

By jumperjack

Going to throw one at you for week 11 Thomas...we start with teams that won at least 11 games the previous season, and they are favored in a division game, and their opponent had a lower season wins line. The season wins line is the preseason line you could have bet team futures with. Great long term results, 140+ games over 5 years, 54-95-3 O/U over that time, and 1-12-1 O/U this season.

https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

Like both those week 11 plays Jack
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Jack I know RSWL is the Vegas season wins number but why when I query RSWL and team and season=2019 do I get numbers like 9.1, 6.25, 10.25 etc

Haven't used it before but this is a really good tool, thanks

[Thomas]

Re: week 11

Shout out to bleeker for his thoughts on the under tonight, lost 45 bucks instead of a bundle, yikes

[jumperjack]

Re: week 11

Shout out to bleeker for his thoughts on the under tonight, lost 45 bucks instead of a bundle, yikes

Here is a Steelers' team trend I used as part of my analysis tonight for the under. Pittsburgh is 1-17-1 O/U on the road against teams that run the ball 24 times a game or less.

https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

[Thomas]

Re: week 11

Nice Jack, I like this kind of banter with guys chipping in like this

[bleeker]

Re: week 11

Nice Jack, I like this kind of banter with guys chipping in like this

yes it's a great tool and like to hear about other people's finds..glad it saved you some money last night..

on jj's system it seems to be much more effective 2nd half of the season (good thing ) and has been a steady producer since 2014..below is >=week 9 broken down by season...29-65 o/u


https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

[jumperjack]

Re: week 11

Great stuff Jack thanks, I'll leave it here

By jumperjack

Going to throw one at you for week 11 Thomas...we start with teams that won at least 11 games the previous season, and they are favored in a division game, and their opponent had a lower season wins line. The season wins line is the preseason line you could have bet team futures with. Great long term results, 140+ games over 5 years, 54-95-3 O/U over that time, and 1-12-1 O/U this season.

https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

Like both those week 11 plays Jack
-----------------------------------


Jack I know RSWL is the Vegas season wins number but why when I query RSWL and team and season=2019 do I get numbers like 9.1, 6.25, 10.25 etc

Haven't used it before but this is a really good tool, thanks

I can't say for sure, but I am guessing they use several sources for the team win lines and average them. Also there is heavy juice on some of those lines and they could do the math and figure out the exact line value when the team win line is under 9 (-140) for example.

[Thomas]

Re: week 11

If you drop the F parameter in your query Jack you get this:

PRSW>10 and RSWL>o:RSWL and date>=20141116 and DIV and week >=9 and season,1

37-84 o/u compared to the fav parameter which is 29-65, more plays same winning percentage and a better roi

I've never used this RSWL in my queries before but I've always looked at it as the season gets to week 8+ as there is very telling info in those numbers as I'm sure sos plays into them as the season rolls on. For instance teams that are coming close to their RSWL at week 9 or 10 one would think that their remaining games will pose a problem for them in strength of opponent. This is very interesting info, of course some teams will exceed their number but I would think for the most part teams ahead of their numbers will be regressing close to the original RSWL, hence opportunity. Just at a glance for example the 49'ers who have already surpassed their RSWL numbers for the season are entering a tough sos to end the season with 2 more div games and 4 tough opponents (27-10 su 72%) and Atlanta who may or may not be a problem one might think regression is in order and they have now lost their 1 game since they crossed that threshold

[bleeker]

Re: week 11

week 10-12..
RSWL 5-7..
2-3 wins less than that..
previous loss..
away
<=13 point dog


13-0 (10.15)

a team that was expected to be bad and is on course to fulfill that prediction coming off a loss and away..nothing to lose and not in front of the home crowd probably means playing loose..on arizona who of course is playing sf





https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

[Thomas]

Re: week 11

Boy bleeker I'm learning stuff here, appreciate it guys. I especially like this part of your query, " 2 <= RSWL - wins <= 3' as that opens some good doors

[bleeker]

Re: week 11

Boy bleeker I'm learning stuff here, appreciate it guys. I especially like this part of your query, " 2 <= RSWL - wins <= 3' as that opens some good doors

thanks thomas.. yes a good way to highlight avg to below avg performing teams late in the season