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  • week 7

    Gonna start this early and look for some info that might help us, start with this query that I've posted in other threads. I have to wonder how much longer this will stay valid because the books always have a way of accomplishing regression toward (or to) the mean, a phenomenon that never ceases to amaze me. Food for thought that last sentence.

    season = 2019 and site = away and D and conference = AFC and o:conference = AFC



    https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...output=summary

  • #2
    Re: week 7

    Here's what's happening after 6 weeks:

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    • #3
      Re: week 7

      Gonna drop this off as well, it's just a mini box score by team as I noticed Jack played a 1stq play this weekend and this is a great look if your interest involves qtr plays. Invaluable in the NBA


      team,o:team,quarter scores,o:quarter scores,game number,points, o:points, site,date@season=2019

      https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: week 7

        From my buddy at the mine, bleeker these are the things this guy comes up with all the time, simple in season stuff

        =SIMPLE STUFF BAL +3.5/+4
        https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...output=summary

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        • #5
          Re: week 7

          ok thomas not bad..I guess I can see the value of something that is currently working same season vs going back a long while..not giving up on the latter though and guessing you'd agree with that..what do you think about the results if you remove "op:F"..seems to be a real nice under producer that might be building strength as the season progresses..you'll probably say i'm getting ahead of myself with the latter lol
          _______________________________________________
          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

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          • #6
            Re: week 7

            Going to throw one in here I just uncovered myself yesterday. No plays yet this season, but there will be. Very simple and straight forward and goes across 6 full NFL seasons. The concept is easy, same season division re-matches when the total is significantly lower than the combined points scored in the 1st game. I threw away the playoffs and week 17 because week 17 is such an oddball week with whole teams resting starters sometimes, and the playoffs are the playoffs. Fairly decent sample size and incredible past performance. Of the only 3 that did go over, 2 were by a half a point and another by 1.5 points. It makes so much sense from a contrarian bettor stand point. The public sees the previous meeting had several more points than this meeting and they instinctually jump on the over, which they do as a normal course of action anyway.

            https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
            "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

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            • #7
              Re: week 7

              While the above listed system has an extremely high win %, I prefer this one cause it has a much larger scope of plays and the same concept. Same as above but you only need the total to be smaller than the previous meetings combined points. VOLUME=MORE MONEY The higher % subset may perform better pct-wise but more opportunities means you win more $$ in the long run. When the subset plays come along I just play them for more.

              https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
              "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: week 7

                really nice and makes sense.. I agree with simplicity being a positive sign for a query and this one certainly is that.. bigger sample I agree is where the money's made and just step it up for the subset
                Last edited by bleeker; 10-16-2019, 10:29 AM.
                _______________________________________________
                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: week 7

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: week 7

                    good stuff Jack, thanks

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: week 7

                      Jack if your around here, in your query this portion P:points+Po:points>total. Are you referring to the total for the game to be played in week 7 ? When I read this I thought you meant the total in the previous matchup which wouldn't apply here because it picks the jets/pats game which was a push at 44 in week 3. The language seems to point to the qualifying game 7 total though, is that right ?

                      So your saying that the total points last time they played same season is higher than the upcpming match up total. That's correct right
                      Last edited by Thomas; 10-16-2019, 11:03 PM.

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                      • #12
                        Re: week 7

                        Forget it Jack I reread your post and I get it now. Nice work there my friend
                        Last edited by Thomas; 10-16-2019, 11:08 PM.

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                        • #13
                          Re: week 7

                          Originally posted by Thomas View Post
                          Jack if your around here, in your query this portion P:points+Po:points>total. Are you referring to the total for the game to be played in week 7 ? When I read this I thought you meant the total in the previous matchup which wouldn't apply here because it picks the jets/pats game which was a push at 44 in week 3. The language seems to point to the qualifying game 7 total though, is that right ?

                          So your saying that the total points last time they played same season is higher than the upcpming match up total. That's correct right
                          If it was referring to the total in the previous match-up it would read P:points+Po:points>P:total. That is more easily written P:O which designates that the previous match-up went over.
                          "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: week 7

                            Thanks Jack I figured that out, it's funny I get something in my mind like this and don't see by it. After I figured out what you had said I'm thinking so simple and I know that's what it means yet left side takes over and hangs on, lol

                            OK my pp/100 formula spits out this on a 4 game rolling avg, it obviously sides with Denver who has won their last two as opposed to KC who has lost two in a row.

                            KC 20.64

                            Denver 22.85

                            So I did it STD to see how it looks

                            KC 22.46

                            Denver 20.66

                            OK here's what I hate about this, I like KC to win this game convincingly but as I scour the numbers, which "don't lie", it gives me pause here. For a long while this week 3.5 was widely available on Denver at decent vig (-110 to -115) now I see KC at pinny -2.5 -20, that's a great price for them in my public opinion, lol. Clearly the books are not thinking what I'm thinking


                            Tried throwing out each teams best and worst games to see what things look like, it's just as muddy, lol

                            STD and toss worst and best which leaves 4 games each in this case

                            KC 23.32

                            Denver 22.02

                            It all does point to the under I guess but it ain't telling me anything about the spread. Even using average season points for and against it says the total should be in the 44 range

                            A(points),A(o:points) @ team and season=2019
                            Last edited by Thomas; 10-17-2019, 01:13 PM.

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                            • #15
                              Re: week 7

                              Even though I don't trust KC's D to anything heroic they will spread the field tonight and make things interesting on offense and if this turns into a shoot out of some kind I like Mahome's chances way better than Flacco's. Gonna wait here just a bit and see if I can get that 2.5 -20 back, it's -124 right now (went up as high as -129 this afternoon), don't think I'll need it but would feel way better with it

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