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7-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 9.0 Atlanta at St. Louis (7 p.m., Sunday, May 26)
Julio Teheran has been on fire over his last four starts, allowing just two runs and 10 hits over his last 23 innings of work. Early in the season I said that Teheran was throwing the ball better than his numbers suggested, so his recent hot streak isn't a surprise to me. However, I think he's going to get hit hard here. His velocity is still tracking down so he's getting it done with guile. Well, one of the teams he shut down in that four-game stretch was the Cardinals, allowing just two hits in five innings of a 10-2 Braves win on May 16. The Cards are getting another crack at home tonight - at home, with revenge - and I think they will absolutely take advantage. The 'over' is 17-6 in the last 23 meetings between these two and is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in St. Louis. Jack Flaherty is solid. But he can be gotten to. He has allowed three or more runs in five of his last seven starts. And after back-to-back quality starts - including one against the Braves - I think he'll get touched up. The Braves hitters have been in a groove. Atlanta has scored an average of 5.5 runs per game in their last 10. Yet they have gone 'under' in six of their last eight. That doesn't really track. I know their bullpen has been a lot better. But I just think that things in this matchup are tracking toward a high-scoring affair. I like this one to sneak over late and I can see a 6-4 or 7-5 type game.
This is a big play for Ferringo today. A 7 unit biggie. And yet, if you read the above write-up for it, it reads like something you might bet 1 or 2 units on.....certainly not 7.
You can pick numerous Sunday games to play, and yet he has based his big play on reasoning that looks like it supports the opposite of what he intends to play. All this stuff indicates UNDER, but Ferringo thinks it might just sneak over late.
His own write-up fails to give me much confidence in the play.
Does anybody have the same feeling?
Julio Teheran has been on fire over his last four starts, allowing just two runs and 10 hits over his last 23 innings of work. Early in the season I said that Teheran was throwing the ball better than his numbers suggested, so his recent hot streak isn't a surprise to me. However, I think he's going to get hit hard here. His velocity is still tracking down so he's getting it done with guile. Well, one of the teams he shut down in that four-game stretch was the Cardinals, allowing just two hits in five innings of a 10-2 Braves win on May 16. The Cards are getting another crack at home tonight - at home, with revenge - and I think they will absolutely take advantage. The 'over' is 17-6 in the last 23 meetings between these two and is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in St. Louis. Jack Flaherty is solid. But he can be gotten to. He has allowed three or more runs in five of his last seven starts. And after back-to-back quality starts - including one against the Braves - I think he'll get touched up. The Braves hitters have been in a groove. Atlanta has scored an average of 5.5 runs per game in their last 10. Yet they have gone 'under' in six of their last eight. That doesn't really track. I know their bullpen has been a lot better. But I just think that things in this matchup are tracking toward a high-scoring affair. I like this one to sneak over late and I can see a 6-4 or 7-5 type game.
This is a big play for Ferringo today. A 7 unit biggie. And yet, if you read the above write-up for it, it reads like something you might bet 1 or 2 units on.....certainly not 7.
You can pick numerous Sunday games to play, and yet he has based his big play on reasoning that looks like it supports the opposite of what he intends to play. All this stuff indicates UNDER, but Ferringo thinks it might just sneak over late.
His own write-up fails to give me much confidence in the play.
Does anybody have the same feeling?
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