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  • #1

    week 3

    week 3
    away favorites > 22
    total < 65
    2006

    http://killersports.com/ncaafb/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

    8-0 o/u (12.44)



    I believe in the above query I had it entered at -21 instead of - 22..at 22 here is what it looks like.. a game tomorrow night and 2 saturday including the app st/tex st total mentioned
    in original post.. it's still a good record if the line moves a few points either way so don't sweat that.. you can click below and see them all.. all over plays if your new to reading this


    http://killersports.com/ncaafb/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

    ---------------------------------------


    a query similar to the one above that yields 7 more games.. i've said it before and I'll say it again I'm amazed by the numbers.... whatever the results

    http://killersports.com/ncaafb/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

    16-0 o/u (12.19)

    19-1 o/u @ total of 53.5**

    3 games including 1 overlap
    Last edited by bleeker; 09-15-2017, 08:36 PM.
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Re: week 3

    The only problem I have with this is what I always struggle with for some SDQL. Why specifically would week 3 big favorites be higher scoring than other weeks? If there is no logical way to think through a SDQL I try to block out that I ever saw it lol If you don't make it week specific it is nearly 50% O/U.
    "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

    Comment

    • #3
      Re: week 3

      Originally posted by jumperjack View Post
      The only problem I have with this is what I always struggle with for some SDQL. Why specifically would week 3 big favorites be higher scoring than other weeks? If there is no logical way to think through a SDQL I try to block out that I ever saw it lol If you don't make it week specific it is nearly 50% O/U.

      for starters I welcome challenges to this strategy.. I like to know what people think are the negatives of a particular query or the method in general.. to be perfectly honest I didn't think it through beyond the query and I usually do.. for an 8 game sample I require a big margin so under a touchdown wouldn't do it for me.. if I had to rationalize the angle I could see at this point in the season a team kind of has a foundation whereas maybe after the first game they're not there yet.. also they're still fairly fresh vs the 2nd half of the schedule...the main thing to me is the margin.. if it's big enough rationalizing why it's doing so well not as important to me
      Last edited by bleeker; 09-12-2017, 08:48 PM.
      _______________________________________________
      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

      Comment

      • #4
        Re: week 3

        It's cool, just throwing my 2 cents out there.
        "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

        Comment

        • #5
          Re: week 3

          2016 CFB 183-184 -4580
          5* 6-8
          15* GOY 1-0

          2016 NFL 216-154 +11940
          10* GOY 1-0
          5* 11-7

          2016 NBA 480-404 +12200
          5* 18-12

          Comment

          • #6
            Re: week 3

            added comment and query
            _______________________________________________
            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

            Comment

            • #7
              Re: week 3

              It's up to the player I think what he wants to believe in, I can live with 9 or 10 results if it's over a shorter period of time. I think say the one here is really random and it goes back 12 years, the margin is fine but like Jack I gotta be able to say that makes sense, in this case I personally can't because I can't wrap my mind around why those things would be important. But not to say there's any reason not to like and subscribe to that thought bleeker it could go right on winning for reasons unknown, possibly just chance but that pays the same as any other method.

              I've been around the database since it's inception and I've seen a lot of different ideas about the who what where and why scenarios. If you like it then it's a good trend and when it goes bad you just move on, it's a money making strategy that I like. I just like those 9 or 10 results in a more compact frame of time but that's me, everyone is different. I have miles of thought about what I think one should look at and I've found that the simple queries with a no more that 3,4 or 5 yr time frame work the best for me but not blindly, there's always other factors that one must consider

              Comment

              • #8
                Re: week 3

                Originally posted by Thomas View Post
                It's up to the player I think what he wants to believe in, I can live with 9 or 10 results if it's over a shorter period of time. I think say the one here is really random and it goes back 12 years, the margin is fine but like Jack I gotta be able to say that makes sense, in this case I personally can't because I can't wrap my mind around why those things would be important. But not to say there's any reason not to like and subscribe to that thought bleeker it could go right on winning for reasons unknown, possibly just chance but that pays the same as any other method.

                I've been around the database since it's inception and I've seen a lot of different ideas about the who what where and why scenarios. If you like it then it's a good trend and when it goes bad you just move on, it's a money making strategy that I like. I just like those 9 or 10 results in a more compact frame of time but that's me, everyone is different. I have miles of thought about what I think one should look at and I've found that the simple queries with a no more that 3,4 or 5 yr time frame work the best for me but not blindly, there's always other factors that one must consider

                I kind of like that it's worked well over a long period of time.. i've always felt standing the test of time is good with systems but not so much with team trends.. I also like the fact it's about as simple query as you can get.. feel the freshness along with a bit of a rhythm being established might be part of why it works.. could be random chance also who knows.. obviously we're talking about a team that's loads better than their opponent so maybe that plays into it

                always appreciate your opinion thomas and any feedback or knowledge you can pass along is terrific
                _______________________________________________
                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                Comment

                • #9
                  Re: week 3

                  Well bleeker I just bet the az/utep O58.5 cause you got me when you said "feel the freshness along with a bit of a rhythm"lol. gl

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Re: week 3

                    Originally posted by Thomas View Post
                    Well bleeker I just bet the az/utep O58.5 cause you got me when you said "feel the freshness along with a bit of a rhythm"lol. gl
                    guess it's the horseplayer in me but with them it's fitness rather than reps .. gl and hopefully we get a w
                    _______________________________________________
                    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Re: week 3

                      added comment and similar query
                      _______________________________________________
                      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Re: week 3

                        ** added comment
                        _______________________________________________
                        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Re: week 3

                          bleeker what does added comment mean in your posts

                          utep/az looked bad in the 1stq (0 points) but they hammer out 44 in the 2ndq and we got life lol

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            Re: week 3

                            Originally posted by Thomas View Post
                            Well bleeker I just bet the az/utep O58.5 cause you got me when you said "feel the freshness along with a bit of a rhythm"lol. gl

                            i just realized what the heck was I trying to say there.. . for some reason it didn't hit me right away but a lol definitely justified.. actually what I meant was a team that's fresh cause it's only the 3rd game which you probably gathered..

                            feel the freshness.. what is this a tide commercial

                            _______________________________________________
                            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              Re: week 3

                              Originally posted by Thomas View Post
                              bleeker what does added comment mean in your posts

                              utep/az looked bad in the 1stq (0 points) but they hammer out 44 in the 2ndq and we got life lol
                              thread is quiet for 3 hours and we happen to post within the same minute.. geez

                              yeah looked bad after 1st quarter but unbelievable 2nd.. I meant if you make the total in the query 53.5 it brings the record to 19-1 o/u
                              _______________________________________________
                              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                              Comment

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