Announcement

**bucheis** · 07-20-2017, 06:04 PM

Re: Joe Sheehan Newsletter

The Joe Sheehan Newsletter
Vol. 9, No. 50
July 19, 2017

Speaking solely from a position of self-interest, I’m fine if the baseball industry wants to take 15-20 trades that might happen in the last 24 hours before the trade deadline and spread them out over the two weeks leading up to July 31. This is fun. We’ve now had four deals of moderate to major import in the last five days, with Ninja Rick and his White Sox bookending the quartet.

White Sox/Yankees

After getting Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease in exchange for Jose Quintana, it seemed that Hahn would have to be done getting highly-rated prospects for his remaining saleable assets. Among Jose Abreu, David Robertson, Todd Frazier and others, there didn’t seem much that would return big value. That’s not to say Hahn couldn’t continue to bolster the system, but it seemed more likely he would add depth pieces or even organizational players rather than the likes of Jimenez and Lucas Giolito and Yoan Moncada.

So his ability to assemble a package, with two veterans and a reliever who’s been good for 14 weeks, to get yet another top-end prospect is impressive. Hahn sent Frazier, Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle to the Yankees last night in exchange for outfielder Blake Rutherford (#18 overall pick in 2016, MLB.com’s #30 overall prospect), two other prospects, and the obligation to pay the last of the $4.25 million being paid to Tyler Clippard this year. Rutherford is the prize, currently hitting .281/.342/.391 in his first full season in the Sally League. An old high schooler, Rutherford is already 20, which limits his projection, but MLB Pipeline rates him as having average to above-average tools across the board. Long term, he could be a #6 hitter with average to average-plus defense in an outfield corner. We can have an argument about Rutherford’s rank -- Keith Law, to pick an example, didn’t have Rutherford in his midseason top 50 -- but this is a player who was a first-round pick 13 months ago, He’s a valuable property that Hahn got for two veterans who were short-term Sox and whatever Kahnle is. Ian Clarkin, the second prospect, is an injury-case lefty just getting his career started four years after being drafted. He’s a low-upside lefty at least two years away. Tito Polo, the third prospect, is a great name with some chance of being a 25th man.

There’s a notion that the Yankees have made a significant upgrade to their bullpen, what with Clippard being less effective than the New York City subway system in July. While conceding that this is a bit of cheating with endpoints, the notion that Clippard is the worst reliever in this trade is a very new one.

36 Days Ago (Stats through June 12)

ERA IP K% K/UIBB
Clippard 1.73 26.0 31% 32/10
Kahnle 1.48 24.1 48% 43/5
Robertson 3.09 23.1 37% 33/6

I’m guessing I don’t have to tell you that Tyler Clippard had a longer track record of effectiveness than Tommy Kahnle did coming into 2017, and that he’d been within shouting distance of Robertson over the past few years as well. Clippard has gotten lost over the past five weeks, allowing 15 runs in 10 1/3 innings over his last 12 appearances, with ten strikeouts, eight walks and four homers allowed. He’s been at the center of a number of ugly Yankees losses -- they lost nine of ten games in which he appeared from June 13 through July 7 -- and had become the focal point of fan frustration with the bullpen’s performance.

Maybe Tommy Kahnle has turned a corner. Over at Fangraphs, Jeff Sullivan hit the timing lottery with a piece yesterday calling him a Sox trade chip and breaking down his performance so far. Kahnle is throwing harder and more effectively this year than he ever has before, and a 60/6 K/UIBB -- his season total, including a 43% strikeout rate -- is no joke. It’s possible that the Yankees have bought in early to a pitcher who will hold this level for the next few seasons. However, had I asked you a month ago who is better, Tyler Clippard or Tommy Kahnle, you would have said, “Who is Tommy Kahnle?” I think any evaluation of this trade that emphasizes the difference between Clippard and Kahnle today is really emphasizing five weeks of difference, fewer than 20 innings of work. Maybe this is one career ending and another beginning, but if you’re the Yankees, it pretty much has to be for this deal to be an upgrade.

Robertson returns from whence he came, and like Kahnle adds depth to a bullpen that has been ridden hard and, given the condition of the starting rotation, will continue to be ridden hard. He’s a credible average reliever now, and he’s signed for 2018 as well. The Yankees, if nothing else, have just about locked down their bullpen for next season in this deal.

The third piece, Todd Frazier, is a known quantity, a durable, league-average hitter who plays average to slightly better defense at third base. He hit .220/.311/.454 in his time in Chicago, good for a 107 OPS+ and 102 wRC+. Instead of replacing Chase Headley at third base in New York, Frazier may instead inherit the playing time of the team’s first basemen, with either he or Headley taking over at the cold corner. This might be an upgrade -- Yankees’ first basemen have hit .208/.295/.391 this year in the wake of Greg Bird’s injury-riddled season -- but it’s far from a big one. Frazier has played first base infrequently and, by the numbers, poorly, while Headley has 62 career innings over there, so there could be a defensive hit as well. Even after this, the Yankees could still be in the market for the likes of Yonder Alonso or Lucas Dude. Todd Frazier just doesn’t change the offense much.

It’s tangential, but this is the kind of trade that makes me think about how interesting it would be if teams could trade their draft picks. The Yankees have basically sent their first-round pick, a year removed, out for a package that might make them a win or two better over the rest of the season, and is hardly guaranteed to even do that. Framed that way, it’s not a good deal. Even if you think it is, that disagreement in and of itself would add interest and intrigue to the draft that simply isn’t there now. I would like to see how teams value their first-round picks, and this deal definitely gives us an idea of what the 18th pick in the draft is worth in the trade market.

Anyway, Rick Hahn did more work here, adding a piece of real value for what amounts to ephemera. There’s at least some chance he can turn Clippard into something as well, if not this month, then next. The Yankees paid a steep price without changing their outlook all that much. They’ve now been a pretty bad team for more than two months -- 26-35 since May 8 -- and many of the hitters whose big starts drove the offense have regressed back to their expected numbers or headed to the disabled list. The stable rotation has seen Michael Pineda lost to Tommy John surgery, and is leaning heavily on two young starters who have never seen 160 innings in a season before. The best-case scenario is that the Yankees hold on for a wild card slot; the worst is that they’ve dealt a rated prospect to no good end.

Nationals/A’s

It is possible to make a good trade for relief pitching, however. The Nationals traded Blake Treinen and a couple of prospects outside the top 150 for Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle. There are real differences here, starting with the cost, a couple of 2016 draft picks. (Again, let’s let teams trade these picks.) Sheldon Neuse is a third baseman out of Oklahoma who is hitting .291/.349/.469 in the Sally League as a 22-year-old. The performance is fine, but he is far too old for the stat line to mean anything, and he’s not managing the strike zone (66/24 K/UIBB) given his edges in age and experience. If he’s a prospect, he needs to get moving up the ladder. Jesus Luzardo is more interesting; the lefty was taken in the third round after undergoing Tommy John surgery in March of 2016. He’s made three pro appearances and is a long way off, but he’s an interesting piece. The Nationals didn’t give up anything they’re going to miss before 2019 at the earliest, and 2019 just doesn’t matter to this franchise right now. For the A’s, they trade players who won’t be in Oakland in three years for players who might.

The other difference is that Madson and Doolittle become the Nationals’ most important relievers, as opposed to sixth- and seventh-inning guys. This is a big late-game upgrade for a team that has famously struggled to protect leads. The Nationals went relatively cheap and no-name with their pen this year, and it didn’t work out. This is a patch that makes them better in high-leverage situations, acquired at limited cost.

With the Nationals a near-lock for the playoffs, adding Doolittle gives them a weapon against the lefty-heavy Dodgers, and sets them up to carry three lefties in an NLCS matchup against Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger and company. Doolittle has allowed a .213 OBP to lefties in his career, and lefties were 0-for-23 with 12 strikeouts against him with the A’s this year. This trade should stanch the late-game bleeding in D.C. for the next few months, but its impact on a potential Dodgers series could be the real payoff.

Diamondbacks/Tigers

As the word “controllable” invades our brain thousands of times a day, the value of pure rentals seems to be declining. (Exceptions, like Aroldis Chapman last year, abound.) Paired with the annual trade-deadline emphasis on pitching -- regardless of what teams need, they always think they need pitching -- a true rental bat like J.D. Martinez seems to get lost. The Diamondbacks may have taken advantage of that to steal a middle-of-the-lineup hitter for spare parts. Martinez, who missed six weeks with a sprained right foot, is hitting .305/.388/.630 in 57 games for the Tigers, and hit .300/.361/.551 in three-and-a-half seasons in Detroit. Durability has been an issue -- this will be the third season in four Martinez doesn’t play 130 games -- but when he’s been in the lineup, he’s raked.

This is a big upgrade for the Diamondbacks, who have been completely faking left field since Yasmany Tomas hit the disabled list in June. Among their recent left fielders are utility infielder Daniel Descalso, catcher Chris Herrmann, defensive replacement Gregor Blanco, and “wait, that guy?” Rey Fuentes. Any argument that Martinez’s shaky defense will hurt the Snakes is hard to make given the collection of non-outfielders that have followed Tomas -- himself no prize -- in left. This is a full upgrade of two wins over 70 games.

There’s always room to disagree about prospect rankings, so take the following with a grain of salt: the Tigers didn’t acquire anyone in this deal who cracks their system’s -- their bad system’s -- top ten per MLB.com. Dawel Lugo comes in at #11 now, Sergio Alcantara at #18, and Jose King is unranked. All three are infielders, with the first two projecting as fifth infielders and King basically an embryo (he’s 18 and hasn’t played outside of a complex league). There’s some argument that the Tigers need to cash in a rental while they can, and some argument that a bad system needs to add volume rather than just upside. It’s just hard to see the case for making this trade on July 18; it doesn’t seem like it’s a package that wouldn’t have been there on July 31, with the possibility of better ones developing in the interim.

The Tigers have had an amazing run since bottoming out in 2003. The Justin Verlander era produced two AL pennants, four division titles and more than a decade of relevance. This trade, on the heels of the passing of Mike Ilitch, signals the end of that era. The Tigers, who have an old MLB team, a poor farm system, and a GM who has spoken openly about lowering payroll, may be headed for a long stretch of irrelevance.

**bucheis** · 07-20-2017, 06:05 PM

Re: Joe Sheehan Newsletter

The Joe Sheehan Newsletter
Vol. 9, No. 49
July 17, 2017

After a walkoff 4-3 loss to the Royals yesterday, a game that ended with Shin-Soo Choo losing a ball in the sun to allow the winning run to score, the Rangers slipped back under .500 at 45-46. They are dead in the AL West race, of course, 16 1/2 games behind the Astros, but they’re one of a half-dozen teams bunched in the AL Wild Card race. The Rangers begin the day 2 1/2 games behind the Yankees for the second Wild Card, three back of the Rays for the top spot. Seven teams are separated by four games for the two playoff berths. Of those seven, the Yankees and Rays have far and away the best underlying performance, with the Mariners and Rangers next in line.

It’s been an odd year for the Rangers, who have essentially the same roster they had a year ago. Last year’s Rangers outscored their opponents by eight runs all season; they also rode a strong bullpen and unusually well-timed performance to a 36-11 record in one-run games. They won the AL West going away on the strength of that mark. This year’s Rangers have actually outscored their opponents by 31 runs in just about 60% of a season, but have underperformed that -- they’re just 7-15 in one-run games. The bullpen that was so impressive last year imploded early in this one, and the team hasn’t hit nearly so well in high-leverage situations as it did in 2016.

The 2016-17 Rangers are likely to be one of the signature examples when we argue against the idea that teams have a particularly ability to win close games. There’s been minimal change in their personnel, no change in management, and yet a huge swing in close-game record. Playing well in close games isn’t a skill over and above playing well.

However they got here, the Rangers are now faced with a decision over what to do about it. The division title is out of reach, leaving them playing for half a playoff berth. We know that teams can advance to the World Series and even win one from the Wild Card Game, but it’s a daunting challenge -- mathematically, assuming all playoff teams are equal, the Wild Card gives you a 6.25% chance at a title. Realistically, it’s far below that when you consider how often the Wild Card has to play better teams without home-field advantage. To pick a number, the Diamondbacks have the best chance of being a Wild Card team of any team in baseball, about 83%. They have a 3.1% chance to win the World Series. That’s what you’re playing for if you’re the Rangers, a chance at a chance at a chance.

About two weeks ago, we compared the Royals and the Twins, two teams then tied in the standings but with considerably different rosters and futures. The 2017 Rangers split the difference between those two. In Yu Darvish, they have a free agent who, after years lost to elbow surgery, is pitching at the level of a #2 starter. He’s been their nominal ace when healthy, and on any given day is still their ace. He’s also, pending how his season ends, in line to make at least $25 million a year in free agency. Were he to be made available in trade, he’d be as attractive a rental as there is -- conceding that rentals tend to return less in trade than controlled players. The Rangers are also set to lose Carlos Gomez (31, hitting .251/.331/.471, rapidly losing his speed) and catcher Jonathan Lucroy (31, .257/.302/.361, rapidly losing his framing skill). They’re not the Royals, losing half their roster value on October 1, but the Rangers are in position to lose some players without getting much in return. It’s hard to see Texas making a qualifying offer to Gomez or Lucroy at this point.

Like the Twins, though, the Rangers are bringing along a core of young players who should be around for a while and should be able to contend. Three of the Rangers’ top five players by playing time are 23-year-old Rougned Odor, 22-year-old Nomar Mazara and 23-year-old Joey Gallo. 24-year-old Delino DeShields has been up and down while generating 1.8 bWAR with his OBP (.341) and legs (19/4 SB/CS, plus defense in left field). Jurickson Profar’s career has stalled, yet he’s still just 24 years old. The argument for selling is to bring in players who can join that group, particularly a true center fielder or a young starting pitcher.

The Rangers don’t have to think long term. While they are set to lose Darvish, Gomez, and Lucroy, they will retain much of their roster value into 2018, about 71% of the positive bWAR generated by the team so far. Elvis Andrus, Adrian Beltre, and Cole Hamels are all signed through at least 2018. The Rangers will also have a lot of money to play with; they have committed just $93 million in 2018 salaries, which gives them room to replace Darvish in the market, and will certainly have them at the forefront of Shohei Otani rumors all winter.

So the Rangers are nowhere near a rebuild, yet have about a 3-in-4 chance of missing the playoffs as-is. They have one incredibly attractive trade chip, and a few others -- throw Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross out there, I guess -- who could at least return a low-level prospect. The furthest out they should be focusing is next year, with much of the team’s productive players under contract, with a group of under-25 players who should be improving, and with plenty of money available for adding to the group.

And yet... 2 1/2 games out. Mind you, 2 1/2 games out with the memory of 2015 fresh in everyone’s, including the fans’, minds. The ’15 Rangers were 49-52 on the afternoon of July 31, 2015, when they traded a slew of prospects for Cole Hamels and Jake Diekman. At the time, with the Rangers eight games out in the West and four out in the Wild Card race behind five other teams, the deal seemed like a play for 2016. The Rangers went 39-22 after that, not only lapping the Wild Card field but chasing down the Astros to win the AL West. It’s hard to give up on a season in July when you did that just two years ago.

I like to say that for many teams in the Rangers’ spot, they want to either win seven in a row or lose seven in row, just to make the decision easier. The Rangers, by their place in the standings, by the composition of their roster, by the mix of contracts they hold, are in as tough a spot as you’ll ever see. There’s just no preponderance of evidence that points the team in one direction or another. There are still two weeks to the deadline, time for that seven-game streak to push Jon Daniels and his staff to one pole or the other. Today, however, the Rangers straddle the fence. They are as hard a buy/sell decision as I’ve seen in years.

Actually, that’s a misnomer. The Rangers are a hold/sell decision. With the young core, with the division out of reach, there’s no case for the Rangers to be a strong buyer. They shouldn’t be putting top-100 guys like Leody Taveras or Yohander Mendez into trades, shouldn’t be in play for the big-ticket items like Justin Verlander or Zach Britton or Andrew McCutchen. You don’t make a big play when your only hope is the Coin Flip Round.

No, the Rangers’ decisions are really just one: whether to keep or sell Darvish. He won’t bring back the Quintana package, but then again, Aroldis Chapman returned Gleyber Torres and then some for a third of the innings that Darvish will pitch. Realistically, the Rangers’ ask would be one top-50 type, and then a couple of other prospects. With their infield set and their intentions to contend in 2018, the Rangers have the luxury of focusing on close-to-the-majors outfielders were they to shop Darvish. Could they ask for Clint Frazier from the Yankees? Bradley Zimmer from the Indians? Derek Fisher from the Astros? The Rangers’ other short-term need is reliable, preferably controllable starting pitching. Would the Rockies move Jeff Hoffman for the top-end starter they need? How about the Rays with their upper-levels depth? Would they move Blake Snell or (and?) Jose De Leon (currently out with a lat strain) for the starter that pushes them closer to the Red Sox in the East?

The Rangers can trade 12-13 Darvish starts for more than 100 from a controllable pitcher, and they can use that pitcher in seasons where the top team in the AL West doesn’t run away and hide. As hard as it would be to part ways with someone who has been so important to the franchise, as hard as it would be to send this message to the team and the fans, the potential gain in trading Darvish -- trading just 70 or 80 innings of him -- is too high. The Rangers should cash in this chip.

**bucheis** · 07-20-2017, 06:06 PM

Re: Joe Sheehan Newsletter

Aaron Judge:

Without getting much attention for it, Yankees rookie right fielder Aaron Judge is having a historic season. Even riding an 0-for-9 since the break, Judge is hitting .319/.442/.671, leading the American is just about everything it’s worth leading in and holding pole position in the AL MVP race.

Judge had a prospect profile, to be sure, rated in each of the last three seasons by Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus, generally in the middle of all the lists. However, his 2016 season gave pause. Judge is the name on everyone’s lips today, but one year ago, on July 16, 2016, he was on the disabled list in Scranton with a strained ligament in his left knee. He’d hit the DL on a heater, with a strong month raising his numbers to .261/.357/.469. Judge’s strikeout rate was a concern: 23% of PAs at this point a year ago, on the heels of 25% at Double-A Trenton. When Judge struck out in 44% of his PAs in the majors at the end of last year -- in half of his at-bats -- the question of whether his power would play in major-league games moved front and center.

Judge has continued to strike out this year, 112 times in 373 PA, 30% of his times to the plate. That’s not an unusually high number for a power hitter in today’s game, however, and it’s downright encouraging after how Judge ended the 2016 season. Where Judge is making history, however, is in what he does when the bat hits the baseball. Through half a season, Judge is putting up the best on-contact numbers in baseball history: a .500 batting average and a 1.051 SLG, for a 1551 OPS that would just about break the scale.

3-2-1...Contact! (OPS on contact, min. 400 PA, 1919-2016)

Year AVG SLG OPS
Mark McGwire 1998 .425 1.070 1495
Babe Ruth 1920 .455 1.026 1481
Barry Bonds 2001 .405 1.068 1473
Babe Ruth 1921 .444 .996 1440
Mark McGwire 1996 .423 .990 1413
Manny Ramirez 2000 .472 .939 1411
Sammy Sosa 2001 .433 .975 1408
Babe Ruth 1923 .478 .930 1408
Jim Thome 2001 .445 .953 1398
Ryan Howard 2006 .448 .943 1391

Judge’s .500 batting average on contact would be the highest in baseball history.

Year AVG
Babe Ruth 1923 .478
Manny Ramirez 2000 .472
Babe Ruth 1920 .455
Ryan Howard 2006 .448
Babe Ruth 1924 .446
Jim Thome 2001 .445
Reggie Jefferson 2006 .445
Babe Ruth 1921 .444
Mo Vaughn 1997 .441
Babe Ruth 1926 .439

Judge’s 1.051 SLG on contact would trail just two 70-homer campaigns.

Year SLG
Mark McGwire 1998 1.070
Barry Bonds 2001 1.068
Babe Ruth 1920 1.026
Babe Ruth 1921 .996
Mark McGwire 1996 .990
Sammy Sosa 2001 .975
Jim Thome 2001 .953
Chris Davis 2013 .944
Ryan Howard 2006 .943
Mark McGwire 1999 .943

These numbers are all influenced by the environment of course. Whether the baseball, the pitchers’ velocity, the size of the players, selling out for power, or a combination of all those, we’re headed for the greatest on-contact season in baseball history. The league is hitting .333 on contact and slugging .556. The former would break the record set last year (.331); the latter absolutely shatters the record of .541, also set last year.

Even at that, though, Judge is doing things we’ve never, ever seen before. When he doesn’t strike out, he’s the greatest hitter we’ve ever seen -- just like another Yankee right fielder from nearly 100 years ago.

**bucheis** · 07-20-2017, 06:08 PM

Re: Joe Sheehan Newsletter

Cubs-White Sox Trade:

This trade managed to be both an idea floated for months and a total shock when it happened. It is, to me, a fascinating move. Borrowing the format from my friend and former colleague Christina Kahrl, let’s dig in.

Cubs trade OF Eloy Jimenez, RHP Dylan Cease, 1B Matt Rose, and UT Bryant Flete to White Sox for LHP Jose Quintana

Even if you’re one of the few people who buys in completely to my position that the Cubs’ rotation is taking too much of the blame for the team’s struggles, you can see where they still needed a starting pitcher. The #5 spot has been a mess all year, and the team has had to deal with injuries to Kyle Hendricks and John Lackey. You can argue that Quintana, coming over from the tougher league, actually becomes the Cubs’ #1 starter, and on merit he’s no worse than their #2. In a postseason series, the Cubs now run out Quintana and Jon Lester up top, Jake Arrieta in the #3 slot and probably Hendricks #4, with Lackey relegated to long relief. That’s a big October upgrade, especially if the Cubs’ path back to the World Series goes through the lefty-heavy Dodgers.

It won’t quite work out this cleanly, but replacing Eddie Butler with Quintana projects to make the Cubs about two wins better over the final 70 games, per Dan Szymborski’s ZIPS projections. I think that’s conservative; for one, ZIPS projects Quintana as a 3.89 ERA/3.69 FIP pitcher over the rest of the season, and I think he can be better than that. The first two months of Quintana’s 2017 season were maybe the worst of his career: a 5.60 ERA in 11 starts, with an uptick in walk rate and an unusually high .205 isolated power allowed. Since a disaster start May 30 against the Red Sox, Quintana has a 2.70 ERA in seven starts, and his ISO allowed is back down to .120. The walk rate remains high, though, and is the one change in his profile that seems real. Still, I can look at Quintana and see the 3.29 ERA/3.19 FIP pitcher he was from 2014-16. That performance would make this trade worth closer to three wins over the rest of the season. There are also knock-on effects from getting more innings from this rotation slot, plus being able to leave Mike Montgomery in the bullpen, where he belongs.

This trade is about more than the 2017 pennant race, however. Quintana, who was a salvage job for the White Sox after the two New York teams had him and let him go, is signed to a remarkably team-friendly contract. He makes $7 million in this, his fifth season, and is guaranteed $8.85 million in 2018. The contract then has team options for 2019 and 2020 at $9.5 million, marginal. On Wednesday morning, the Cubs had just two starting pitchers in place for 2018: Lester and Hendricks. By trading for Quintana, they solve what was shaping up to be a difficult problem in a way that leaves them plenty of payroll room to add one more starting pitcher. Like the Rangers’ acquisition of Cole Hamels two years ago, this is a trade that has as much, maybe more, importance to the team’s future as to its present. Quintana’s talent and performance history made him an attractive pitcher; his contract is what made him worth Eloy Jimenez.

It wasn’t inconceivable that the Cubs would deal Jimenez, the 2016 Futures Game star who is a top-ten prospect in baseball. It would only happen for someone like Quintana, however, someone who would fill a hole for years to come. Quintana’s asset value is such that he also cost Dylan Cease, a 2015 draftee who has been moving slowly through the lower levels of the Cubs’ system. Cease was #83 on Baseball America’s midseason top 100 list, and is a long way from the majors.

The Cubs have very clearly defined their window now. By trading what are presently two of the top five prospects in baseball -- Jimenez yesterday, Gleyber Torres a year ago -- they have gone all-in with the current core. That includes, for better or for worse, Kyle Schwarber, who for the second straight July has been retained rather than been traded for pitching. There are baseball reasons for this -- Schwarber was rehabbing a knee injury a year ago, and is carrying a 694 OPS today -- but by trading Jimenez, the Cubs reaffirm their commitment to Kyle Schwarber as their everyday left fielder.

That might work out. Schwarber is hitting .286/.375/.643 in four games since his return to the majors. He has three strikeouts and two walks. Dig deeper, however, and you see the same set of problems that plagued Schwarber in the season’s first three months. In 16 PAs, he’s hit seven ground balls and just four in the air. He’s pulled just one ball in the air, a line-drive double to right on an 0-2 mistake by Wade LeBlanc. The outcomes have been there, but the inability of Schwarber to generate pull power in games -- of six balls hit to the right side, five have been on the ground -- remains an enormous concern. By trading Jimenez, the Cubs are now strapped to Schwarber. They need him to hit.

While the Cubs will continue to grind the draft and dig for talent internationally and work to make their remaining prospects better, the front office has made it clear that they’re determined to win as many championships as possible with the Kris Bryant/Anthony Rizzo core, no hedging. They’ve cashed in an enormous amount of future value to do so; it worked last year, with Aroldis Chapman helping the team to a World Series win. This trade makes clear that the organizational priority isn’t, as Theo Epstein once said in Boston, to build a “$100-million developmental machine,” but rather to win the World Series as many times as possible with this group of players. The next wave, the next core, has been sent off. It’s about 2016-2020 for Epstein and Jed Hoyer. It’s possible to disagree with the individual moves, and it’s possible to disagree with the strategy as a whole, but you have to concede that this is a total commitment to the current team.

White Sox trade LHP Jose Quintana to Cubs for OF Eloy Jimenez, RHP Dylan Cease, 1B Matt Rose, and UT Bryant Flete

After Rick Hahn traded Chris Sale and Adam Eaton last winter, finally launching the White Sox into a long-needed rebuild, it was presumed he would send Quintana on his way as well. After all, the left-hander had almost matched Sale’s value over the previous three seasons, and he was also on a very team-friendly contract.

Hahn waited. While trading Quintana was the natural next step in the process, he also knew he had time on his side. Quintana was controllable through the end of 2020, eliminating any time pressure to move the lefty. As with all pitchers, there were health risks -- any pitcher can get hurt at any time -- but Hahn was willing to take those. Quintana threatened his trade value a bit with a poor start to the 2017 season, but the outcome stats overstated the change in his game. Other than some control issues, Quintana was fine, with the same skill set that had made him a true #2 starter in his five years with the White Sox.

It would be hard to argue that Hahn played this any less than perfectly. As he did when he traded Sale, he acquired both a top-five prospect in the game and a second prospect who reportedly hit 101 mph last year, two players who immediately elevate the White Sox's farm system. The Sox now have two of the top five prospects in baseball in Jimenez and Yoan Moncada. Michael Kopech, the second prospect in the Sale trade, is a top-20 guy. The top two pitchers acquired for Eaton, Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez, are top-50 guys per MLB.com. Throw in the signing of Cuban star Luis Robert, and the White Sox have acquired six top-50 prospects in the last eight months. From the start of 2016, the White Sox have turned a bottom-ten farm system into a top-five one.

Jimenez is the big get here. You probably heard about him just over a year ago, when he doubled, homered, and made a great catch in the Futures Game. At 19, he hit .329/.369/.532 in the Midwest League, spending the entire year in South Bend. This season, his numbers aren’t quite as impressive -- .270/.348/.484 -- as he’s played through some minor injuries. He remains an excellent prospect, #5 on both Baseball America’s midseason list, and Keith Law’s. Dylan Cease is the second man, a righty who has pitched his way from the sixth round in 2014 -- and Tommy John surgery that year -- to the top 100. Cease has hung good numbers, including a 2.79 ERA and a 35% strikeout rate in the Midwest League this season, but it’s his velocity that drives his prospect status. The Cubs used Cease as a starter, and the Sox will as well, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him end up as a power reliever down the road.

With apologies to their parents, the other two players in the deal aren’t much. Matt Rose is a 22-year-old corner infielder with a career .306 OBP who has yet to play above high-A. He’s gotten worked at that level: .224/.276/.473 with a 63/13 K/UIBB. Bryant Flete is a 24-year-old who hasn’t gotten above high-A in six pro seasons. He’s hit in the Midwest League, but he’s done so at 23 and 24, making him quite old for the circuit.

It’s right to be excited about the White Sox's future. A core of Moncada, Jimenez, Kopech, Carlos Rodon and Tim Anderson is one you can dream on, one you can see piled up on the mound on a cool October night. The Sox, previously with Jose Abreu and now with Luis Robert, have shown a willingness to spend money where permitted. Hahn has converted his three top assets into tremendous value, inspiring confidence in his abilities. He still has some chips with which to play, from Abreu to David Robertson to Todd Frazier. Nothing he has left will bring back a rated prospect (although Hahn may just be waiting for the Nationals’ next blown save to maximize his return for Robertson), but collectively Hahn can build depth behind that top six, players who can support the core or be traded for support pieces down the line. If you’re a White Sox fan, you have to be happy with Hahn at the helm now given what he’s done since the end of last season.

If there’s a concern, it’s the draft, which is the most essential piece of the puzzle. Chris Sale was the 13th pick in 2010, and the Sox did a wonderful job bringing him along and turning him into a superstar. Since then, though, the Sox have struggled to turn drafted talent into productive major leaguers. Just three players taken in the draft since then have produced more than a single bWAR for the Sox: Rodon (3.0), Anderson (2.7), and Marcus Semien (1.2 and traded). That the top six players in the Sox's system have been acquired by Hahn in the last eight months is exciting, but it also underlines that the team’s 2015 and 2016 drafts may turn out to be busts. Carson Fulmer, the eighth pick in the 2005 draft, has a career 5.93 ERA at Triple-A, and his 62/40 K/UIBB there this year is awful. Zack Collins, the tenth pick last year, is hitting .222 in the Midwest League after playing in the ACC in college. Collins is striking out 28% of the time in high-A while being of average age for the league.

The Sox are going to have top ten picks in the next couple of drafts. They have to start hitting on those, and not at the level of Rodon and Anderson. They have to find their own Kris Bryant, George Springer, or Corey Seager on draft day to fill out what could end up being a dominant team in the first half of the next decade.

Announcement

Joe Sheehan Newsletter

Joe Sheehan Newsletter

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment